This weekend kicks off a stretch of cooler, drier, true-to-form autumn weather after last week’s decidedly summer-like days. A low pressure center over the Great Lakes will slide southeast towards the region to start the weekend. This could scattered showers and thunderstorms. Aside from that, conditions will be dry and fair for the remainder of the forecast period.
Rest of today – high temperatures right about 70°F with sunny skies, much drier feel to the day.
Saturday – scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially early. High temperatures in the upper-60s, cooler in spots that see rain.
Sunday – sunny, high temperatures again around 70°F. High pressure from Canada behind the low pressure above will keep things dry and cool for much of the next week.
Monday – slightly warmer, high temperatures in the low-70s, again mostly sunny.
We have a superb weekend of weather coming up. Temperatures will be anomalously warm for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the mid-upper 80s. It will feel more like late July than late September. Excellent beach weather, if not for the continuing coastal impacts of Jose. The warm spell continues into next week. Our eyes turn towards Hurricane Maria, which after devastating Puerto Rico and Dominica, is now heading up the East Coast. Maria is not expected to make landfall, but it could still bring coastal impacts like Jose.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures around 80°F.
Saturday – mostly sunny, very warm, temperatures 10-15°F above average for this time of the year.
Sunday – high pressure remains in place with lots of sun and high temperatures again in the upper-80s.
Monday – sunny, temperatures in the upper-80s yet again.
Hurricane Maria
You can now see both Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose and Hurricane Maria in the same satellite image of the continental US. Because Jose has eroded the high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic, Maria will have a path to move northwards up along the East Coast. It does look like Maria will get picked up by a frontal boundary late in the week that pushes it out to sea though.
We will start this week that marks the 16th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks with excellent and seasonably warm temperatures in the low-80s for memorial services today. The pleasant weather should hold up through Thursday before the remnants of Irma begin to move into the region. Looking ahead, some forecast models have hinted that Hurricane Jose poses a possible risk to the East Coast.
Rest of today – pleasant, mild conditions with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-80s.
Tuesday – mostly sunny skies again with high temperatures much the same as today in the low-80s. High pressure will be in control of our weather during this period.
Wednesday – clouds begin to build in conjunction with the northward movement of the expansive cloud shield associated with Irma well to the south. This will cause temperatures to dip just a bit to about 80°F.
Thursday – a touch warmer, mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures in the low-80s.
Hurricane Irma and Jose Updates
Residents of Florida’s west coast avoided what looked like it could be a worst case scenario for them. Irma weakened faster than forecast and moved just far enough inland such that the strongest winds of the eye did not hit Tampa. The weaker storm also reduced the risk of serious storm surge. Still, as you’ve probably seen from media reports, damage from the storm is widespread and of varying degrees of severity across the state. The dangers of the storm now move inland, with heavy rain and tropical storm winds into the Southeast.
While Irma spins down over the Southeast, Jose remains a wildcard for the East Coast next week. Several runs of the GFS have suggested a landfall for Jose somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. It’s far too early to know with any degree of certainty whether this scenario will pan out, since a lot of other forecast models show Jose curving out to sea, but it will bear watching.
We’ve got a wonderful stretch of below average but sunny, fall-like weather ahead of us over the weekend. The main weather story lies far to our south as Florida braces for Hurricane Irma over this same time period. Irma has weakened a bit but is still a large and dangerous Category 4 storm capable of wreaking havoc over the entire state of Florida.
Rest of today – our weather will be dictated by an area of high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes. This will give us mostly sunny skies with a cool high in the mid-70s.
High pressure firmly in control of the weather in our part of the world. You can see Hurricane Irma making its finally approach on Florida in the lower right.
Saturday – sunny with temperatures in the low-70s as the high pressure over the Great Lakes moves east a bit.
Sunday – more of the same as Saturday with sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.
Monday – slightly warmer with high temperatures creeping back into the mid-70s with some more clouds.
Hurricane Irma a Major Threat to South Florida
Current Situation
Hurricane Irma has been weakening in the last 12 hours. It’s evident the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eye of the storm collapses and is replaced by a larger, outer eye. During these internal cycles, max wind speeds often decrease and fluctuate before the storm consolidates a new eye. It has been downgraded to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
Headlines
Landfall somewhere in South Florida over the weekend is a near certainty. Outer bands from Irma are expected to reach South Florida overnight tonight. Life-threatening storm surge inundation and damage from winds of major hurricane force (115 mph) are a near-certainty for parts of South Florida.
Since midday yesterday, forecast models have trended slight back towards a westerly solution for the forecast track of the storm. This almost eliminates the risks to Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas from a direct hit from a major hurricane. However, the risk to these areas from storm surge and strong tropical storm force/marginal hurricane force winds still exists.
There is still a chance Irma could make landfall on Cuba. This would weaken the storm ahead of subsequent landfall on Florida.
Forecast Track
As mentioned above, the best performing forecast models have shifted back to a more westerly track for Hurricane Irma.
Several different forecast models take on Irma’s track.Official National Hurricane Center forecast as of 8AM today.
Forecast Intensity
While Irma has weakened to a Category 4 storm due to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, it remains an extremely dangerous storm with an expanding wind field due to this cycle. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles on each side of the eye and tropical storm force winds well beyond that. It remains possible that Irma can re-strengthen if it completes the eyewall replacement cycle before it interacts with land. Mid-level wind shear remains negligible and Irma will soon be passing over very warm seas with increasing depth. Both of these factors would suggest it maintaining Category 4 strength or possibly re-intensifying to Category 5.
Uncertainties
Any landfall on Cuba or interaction of the core of the storm with the high mountains of that island would disrupt the storm and cause weakening. This would be good news for Florida, at the expense of Cuba of course.
Should the core of the storm avoid Cuba and close off a new eye before too much time elapses, it would have the possibility of re-strengthening before landfall. A strong Category 4 or even a Category 5 storm making landfall on Florida is not out of the question.
The unofficial end of summer does indeed bring us a last gasp of summery weather. A cold front passing through mid-week brings rain and signals a return to more fall-like conditions. Later in the week, we will see high temperatures 5°F below normal. Turning towards the tropics, the risk Irma poses to our region is diminishing, but it now appears Irma will be a threat to Florida.
Rest of today – clear, with ideal conditions for outdoor activities of all kinds. High temperatures in the low-80s.
Tuesday – highs in the low-mid 80s as warm air surges ahead of an advancing cold front. Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day. Some possibility for a spot shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Wednesday – thunderstorms are possible overnight Tuesday as the leading edge of the cold front advances through the area. More rain is expected to ride along the frontal boundary after it passes through, bringing periods of showers throughout the day. High temperatures will be much cooler in the mid-70s with the clouds and rain.
Thursday – mostly cloudy to start with a chance for lingering rain. High temperatures will be cool again in the low-70s.
Friday – mostly sunny skies, much improved conditions as high pressure takes hold. Cool, with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Hurricane Irma an Increasing Threat to Florida
Over the weekend, Irma has been fluctuating in strengthen as it has negotiated marginal conditions for strengthening (mostly the influence of some dry air at upper levels). The National Hurricane Center still forecasts Irma to attain Category 4 strength at some point later this week (130 mph sustained winds or higher) as it encounters more favorable conditions for strengthening, and maintain at least Category 3 strengthen (sustained winds > 115 mph) throughout the forecast period.
The track forecast for Irma has continuously shifted west and south over the weekend due to the influence of an area of high pressure over the Atlantic now, and a faster forecast for the passage of the cold front mentioned above. This frontal boundary lifting out of the East Coast at a faster rate than in prior forecasts would mean that it does not influence Irma to make a turn to the north-northwest and threaten the East Coast. This has two consequences: 1) The chance for Irma to make landfall up the East Coast is diminishing, 2) On the other hand, the risk to Florida is increasing.
This run of the GFS forecast model suggests Irma making landfall on South Florida as a powerful Category 3 hurricane in one week’s time.A “spaghetti” plot of multiple model runs of GEFS, one of the forecast models that forecasters are using to analyze Irma.
It is important to note that with a week to go before Irma nears the US mainland, there could still be room for changes to the track and intensity forecasts. The National Hurricane Center specifically cautions against drawing premature conclusions about the storm’s impact on the rest of the US, while singling out Florida as an area of concern. More updates to come as we continue to watch the development of what could be a very dangerous storm.
I’ve returned from Europe (missed the eclipse though!) to a very pleasant stretch of calm weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Surface high pressure to our northwest over Ontario will continue to bring us cool, dry Canadian air that evokes a more fall-like feel.
Rest of today – just about normal temperatures with highs around 80°F, skies have cleared up nicely and we should have spectacular weather for the start of the weekend.
Saturday – high pressure remains in control, and gives us another pristine day of slightly below normal temperatures in the upper-70s but lots of sun.
Sunday – basically a clone of Saturday, high temperatures in the upper-70s, lots of sun.
Monday – more of the same with temperatures again in the upper-70s, maybe a few more clouds, but who can complain especially when you consider the next section.
Hurricane Harvey a Major Threat to the Texas Coast
It’s worth mentioning here that we have a very dangerous situation developing on the Texas coast today and over the course of the next few days with Hurricane Harvey. If you have friends or family in this area, it’s not a bad idea just to try and check in with them.
GOES 16 visible satellite image of Harvey showing impressive size, distinctive eye, decent symmetrical outflow except on the side already beginning to interact with land.
Harvey originally formed over the eastern Caribbean, dissipated approaching the Yucatan, and then redeveloped as it emerged over the Bay of Campeche. Favorable conditions have allowed Harvey to strengthen quickly into a Category 2 storm, and it’s forecast to continue strengthening to Category 3 before landfall.
This would make it the first major hurricane to make landfall on the US mainland in nearly 12 years. The biggest concern with Harvey is that most forecast models have the storm stalling out after landfall, and possibly looping back out to the Gulf and making a second landfall mid-week next week in eastern Texas, still retaining tropical storm strength. Two areas of upper-level high pressure will essentially be trapping Harvey in place.
The slowing forward motion of the storm means that tropical storm and hurricane force winds will rage for many hours. The longer the winds churn up the waters of the gulf, the bigger the life-threatening storm surge along the coast. Peak storm surge of 6-12′ is forecast. That’s without waves on top. For reference, Sandy brought a peak storm surge of 14′ to The Battery. That’s well above the first, and well into the second story of most homes. On top of that, rainfall totals measuring 2-3′ are possible, which would cause widespread inland flooding.
A pleasant Sunday gives way to a wet and cool start to the week. High pressure builds in as Monday’s storm system moves out of the area. The rest of the week, we’ll see below average temperatures, but mostly sunny conditions along with a more comfortable, drier airmass. This will be my last update for a couple of weeks as I’ll be traveling to Europe – I’ll miss out on the solar eclipse happening on August 21st, which I’ll give some details on in this post.
Rest of today – a low pressure center tracking near or over Long Island during the day today will bring multiple rounds of rain, which at times could be heavy. Conditions will deteriorate during the morning, and rains should pick up in the afternoon. A brief pause may occur before another round of heavy rain during the evening and overnight hours. A flash flood watch is in effect due to the possibility of upwards of 2″ of rain falling perhaps in short intervals. Temperatures will be cool with southeast winds off the ocean and clouds keeping things only in the low-mid 70s.
Tuesday – as this storm system pulls away, winds shift to the northwest and high pressure begins to build in. Tuesday should see partly sunny skies clearing up and high temperatures around 80°F.
Wednesday – nice crisp day on tap with high temperatures around 80°F again and lots of sun as high pressure remains in control.
Thursday – a notch warmer with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies.
Total Solar Eclipse of August 21st, 2017
This much anticipated astronomical event is approaching in 2 weeks time. The last total solar eclipse that would have been highly visible from a large portion of the continental United States dates back to March 7, 1970. This greatest magnitude of this eclipse traveled nearly directly over all the major cities of the Eastern Seaboard.
Path of the total solar eclipse of March 7, 1970
Unfortunately, this time around, we won’t be quite as lucky in New York City, but we’re still expecting around a .75 magnitude total solar eclipse peaking around 2:45PM on August 21st. Regardless, it will be an impressive sight to behold as 3/4 of the sun will be blocked out by the moon transiting directly in front of it from our viewpoint. Even with cloudy skies, you should still notice an appreciable change in lighting during this eclipse event. Hope it stays sunny though!
We enter the month of August with much more appropriate, summer weather and temperatures to match. High pressure over the eastern half of the country dictates the weather this week, with plenty of sun and temperatures finally in the normal to above normal range in the mid-upper 80s. Humidity increases and results in daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Tuesday – warmer, sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90°F.
Wednesday – similar picture to Tuesday with highs in the upper-80s to around 90 °F, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
Thursday – cooler with temperatures back in the mid-80s range and another chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon.
After a couple days of average temperatures, this weekend sees a return to cool temperatures with a wet start to it all. Conditions improve Sunday, and high pressure builds but temperatures remain below normal until later next week.
Rest of today – increasing clouds as a coastal low begins to form off the Mid-Atlantic. Warm with high temperatures right around normal in the low-mid 80s. Rain should hold off until the overnight hours.
High resolution rapid refresh model runs don’t show significant rainfall until around 2AM EDT Saturday
Saturday – an unpleasant, raw, windy, rainy day more reminiscent of autumn or spring than late July. As the coastal low moves closer to us along a stalled frontal boundary, it will bring chances for moderate to heavy rain along with a stiff northeast wind around 25 mph. As a result, temperatures will be surpressed in the mid-70s. Rain chances taper off during the day as the low moves east.
Sunday – much nicer with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding to around 80°F. Still will have a cooling influence of the weakening northeast winds.
Monday – high pressure builds and yields another decent day with high temperatures around 80°F, possibly higher with more sun.
This past weekend, we saw a heatwave broken by several rounds of moderate to heavy rain associated with a couple frontal systems. In their wake, we start this week with temperatures below seasonal averages. This cooler airmass will dry out midweek and give us very comfortable average temperatures in the low-80s.
Rest of today – one more round of moderate to heavy rain pushing through now, then expect a break from the rain during the remainder of the day before another chance for showers later this evening and into the overnight hours, around 8-10PM. Cool, with am easterly onshore flow. High temperatures in the upper-70s.
Tuesday – high pressure begins to build but may not be sufficiently strong to completely remove the chance for showers especially early. Temperatures remain cool in the mid-70s again with a northeasterly onshore influence and cloudy skies.
Wednesday – warmer and sunny finally with high pressure in control, highs will rise into the low-80s.
Thursday – warmer still and into average high temperatures with highs in the mid-80s, but the tradeoff is increasing clouds.
