Late April jumps into June with temperatures soaring into the 80s by midweek before a storm system approaches. This could bring us chances for rain on Thursday, while also cooling temps back to normal levels (mid-60s) by the end of the week.
Rest of today – sunny with breezy northwest winds around 20 mph. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in mid-40s with winds diminishing as a low pressure center moves off into the Atlantic, relaxing the pressure gradient.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday. A warm front will be approaching from the south. Behind this, much warmer air will be flowing clockwise around the high pressure centered off the Southeast coast of the US.
Tuesday – much warmer with high temperatures near 70ºF with sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Wednesday – we will be firmly within the warm sector of the next approaching storm, and as a result, we should see temperatures rise well into the low-80s (potentially 15-20ºF above normal). This is in part due to an anomalously warm mid-upper level ridge (see below). Clouds will be on the increase as the next frontal boundary approaches. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for Wednesday at 2PM. We are forecast to see +8ºC anomalies at this level of the atmosphere, corresponding to much above normal temperatures at the surface.
Thursday– the slow moving cold front will start to impact the region with increasing chances for rain. With clouds and rain, temperatures are expected to drop back to the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF with rain chances continuining.
A week of contrasts is in store, starting with warm, above average temps in the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday, then rain coming mid-week, caused by a vigorous cold front. Behind this, temperatures will plummet to below normal in the low-50s by Thursday. There are rain chances Monday afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms and more substantial chances Wednesday.
Rest of today – starting off sunny, with highs climbing into the mid-60s. Later in the afternoon, clouds develop with a shortwave moving through the area. This mid-level disturbance could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the upper-40s with clearing skies.
HRRR model simulated radar valid for 6 PM this evening. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible especially inland north and west.
Tuesday – best day of the week with high temperatures rising into the low-70s under sunny skies ahead of the incoming storm Wednesday. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Wednesday – rain chances increasing during the day into the overnight hours. High temperatures in the low-60s under mostly cloudy skies. Behind the frontal boundary bringing the rain, strong cold air advection kicks in, dropping lows into the upper-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday. A low pressure center will be progressing through the region bring through a cold front, showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Thursday– sunny in the morning with more clouds developing in the afternoon. With a cold start, high temperatures only hitting the low-50s. Overnight lows dropping to the low-40s.
A steady warming trend takes place this weekend on the heels of a late season snow storm for interior New England. Temperatures will go from below normal in the low-50s to about average for this time of the year in the low-60s. High pressure brings us decent conditions but rain chances are not out of the question Sunday and Monday with some mid-level disturbances possibly bringing some showers.
Rest of today – wraparound moisture from a late-season Nor’easter that’s bringing accumulating snow to interior New England could bring some showers later today. Otherwise partly sunny with high temperatures on the cool side in the low-50s with northwesterly winds keeping a cap on temps. Overnight lows in the low-40s as rain chances die down.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. Low pressure off of New England will be pulling to the east, but still close enough to give us some clouds.
Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-40s. Weak high pressure should keep any rain at bay.
Sunday – mostly cloudy, with high temperatures warming into the low-60s. Slight chance for showers in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity for Monday at 8AM. A fairly potent area of vorticity (dark purples) associated with a shortwave could bring some showers to the area.
Monday– mostly sunny to start with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Rain chances pick up in the afternoon with diurnally driven showers that could get a boost from some mid-level vorticity. Overnight lows at or slightly below 50ºF.
We started April off with an extended period of dry, sunny weather featuring several days with well above average warmth. All that changed over the weekend with rain moving in yesterday. These needed rain chances will punctuate this week, tapering off later towards the weekend. Temperatures during this stretch will generally be below normal in the mid-50s to 60ºF with rain and clouds lingering.
Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with showers at times, high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with rain chances continuing. This is all due to a relatively stationary surface trough to our south and west.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday. During the day, weak high pressure builds allowing for a dry, sunny day.
Tuesday – sunny with high temperatures in the low-60s as high pressure manages to build in briefly. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.
Wednesday – slightly warmer with high temperatures in the low-60s again but mostly cloudy skies. Slight rain chances during the day. Overnight rain chances continue, with lows dropping to the upper-40s.
ECMWF model 500 mb height, and winds for 8AM Thursday. A closed 500 mb low moving over the Great Lakes brings us the next chance for more sustained rain.
Thursday– another rainy day in store as high temperatures drop back to the mid-50s under mostly cloudy skies. A 500 mb closed low moving over the Great Lakes will supply the instability needed to touch off some showers. Overnight lows dropping to the mid-40s.
A cool and breezy start to the week with temperatures warming into the 50s and low-60s by midweek. A storm system arrives Wednesday bringing a round of soaking rain. An even colder air mass sweeps in behind this storm with below average highs in the upper-40s. Overnight lows going into Friday may dip into the upper-20s.
Rest of today – breezy with with northwesterly winds 20-25 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect as a result. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s, but feeling like the mid-40s with the wind chill. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday. High pressure will be more directly overhead and ease winds in the region. Warmer flow from the southwest should help temperatures up into low-60s.
Tuesday – sunny with high temperatures in the low-60s. Much less windy with high pressure more directly overhead. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Wednesday – slightly warmer with high temperatures in the low-60s but with mostly cloudy skies. Rain moves in later in the day, and will be moderate and steady. Overnight lows drop considerably to around 40ºF with robust cold air advection behind the cold front bringing this rain.
GFS model 850 mb temperature, height, and winds for 8PM Thursday. Much colder temperatures at this height are forecast. 850 mb temperatures are often a decent proxy for surface temperatures.
Thursday– wraparound moisture with this storm may bring about more showers Thursday morning with high temperatures in the upper-40s. Overnight lows dropping to around 30ºF as skies clear.
The rainy day yesterday yields a weekend of largely unbroken sunshine and above average warmth. Strong high pressure will dominate our sensible weather bringing stable, dry conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s generally and this mild trend continues into next week. In fact, this mild weather could carry on for the balance of the month. No major chances for rain to speak of in the upcoming days into mid-week next week.
Rest of today – windy with sunny skies and highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the low-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. Strong high pressure will be nearly directly overhead.
Saturday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows again in the upper-30s.
Sunday – very similar to Saturday, sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 24-28, showing high probabilities of above normal warmth for the Northeast.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 26-Apr 1, continuing to show probabilities for above average warmth in this part of the country.
Monday– another great day with high temperatures in the mid-50s and perhaps a few more clouds. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
We have a cool start to most of the weekend with gradual warming trend taking place as high temperatures move up through the upper-30s into the low-40s. High pressure will be dominating sensible weather with lots of sun and calm conditions. This high remains in control until late next week, when we have our next chance at rain. The center of the high will gradually shift east during this time, inducing warm, southerly/southwesterly return flow next week, continuing the warm up to the point that temperatures could reach near 60ºF by mid-week.
Rest of today – windy with sunny skies and highs in the mid-30s. Overnight lows in the upper-20s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Saturday. High pressure is set to build to our west and move in.
Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures reaching the upper-30s. Overnight lows again in the upper-20s.
Sunday – very similar to Saturday but with sunnier skies and high temperatures in the upper-30s and overnight lows in the upper-20s.
GFS model 850 mb temperature, height and winds for 10PM next Thursday. This shows a remarkable warming trend underway at this level of the atmosphere, which serves as a good proxy for surface temperatures.
Monday– warmer with high temperatures in the low-mid 40s under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-30s.
Another accumulating snow event is possible during the day Sunday this weekend, with accumulations somewhere in the 2-4″ range currently most likely. If this storm tracks a bit closer to shore, we could see totals more in the 4-6″ range. The timing of this storm is much faster than the previous one, with onset of snow early in the day Sunday, lasting potentially through the early afternoon hours. As a weaker system, without as strong a high pressure system downstream, winds should also not be as robust as with the Monday storm.
Weather Prediction Center 48 hour 50th percentile snowfall accumulations for the NYC metro region ending 1AM Wednesday
Weather Prediction Center 48 hour 90th percentile(median) snowfall accumulations for the NYC metro region ending 1AM Wednesday
GEFS ensemble plumes for total snow accumulation at KLGA. The mean here is about 4″ with a significant number of ensemble members showing lower amounts.
SREF ensemble plumes for total snow accumulation at KLGA. The mean is about 2″, with similarly large numbers of ensemble members showing lower amounts.
Forecast Details
At the Surface
Low pressure developing over the Southern Plains will emerge offshore of the Carolinas later tonight. This surface low will strengthen modestly as it tracks quickly northeast. Current thinking is that the storm track takes it outside of the classic 40ºN/70ºW benchmark that leads to maximized snowfall for nor’easter type systems in this area.
ECMWF “Euro” model 1000-500 mb pressure, thickness, and surface precipitation/type at 1PM Sunday.
GFS model 1000-500 mb pressure, thickness, and surface precipitation/type at 1PM Sunday.
NAM model 1000-500 mb pressure, thickness, and surface precipitation/type 1PM Sunday.
Weather Prediction Center storm track forecast.
850 mb Level
At this level of the atmosphere, it’s apparent that this storm is much less of a headline maker than Monday’s snowstorm. It’s evident from various models that while there should be enough moisture to sustain precipitation, the winds at this level are not forecast to be anywhere near as strong as on Monday. The lack of a truly robust low-level jet will make for an overall slightly drier scenario.
ECMWF “Euro” model 850 mb winds and relative humidity at 1PM Sunday.
GFS model 850 mb winds and relative humidity at 1PM Sunday.
NAM model 850 mb winds and relative humidity at 1PM Sunday.
500 mb Level
Unlike the last storm, the 500 mb level flow for this upcoming storm is more progressive. This will lead to the storm moving faster through the area. One notable factor contributing to the potential for a decent storm this time is that there will be a negatively tilted trough at this level, indicative of a maturing and deepening low. This feature will serve to enhance divergence at this level and induce surface lift in response.
300 mb Level
As was the case with Monday’s storm, a curved jet streak should set up just north and east of this storm’s surface low. The entrance region of this jet streak should allow stronger divergence and enhanced lift as a result.
A significant snowstorm in store for NYC Monday into early Tuesday morning. Current trends point to 8-12″ likely for most of the city. There is uncertainty with possible mixing late Monday that could cut into this over Long Island, and if the mixing line pushes further northwest, which The European model portrays, this could lower totals in the city to more of the 6-10″ range. It is worth noting that the 850 mb set up suggests the possibility for much bigger totals closer to 18″ if the colder scenarios play out. The timing of this storm is such that the most intense snowfall should occur during the day. A narrow, intense deformation band could remain nearly stationary over some parts of the region during the daytime hours Monday. Strong northeasterly winds will accompany this storm despite relatively modest pressure falls, due to the presence of a 1034 mb high pressure center over eastern Canada creating a tight pressure gradient.
Weather Prediction Center 48 hour 10th percentile snowfall accumulations for the NYC metro region ending 1AM Wednesday
Weather Prediction Center 48 hour 90th percentile snowfall accumulations for the NYC metro region ending 1AM Wednesday
Weather Prediction Center 48 hour 50th percentile(median) snowfall accumulations for the NYC metro region ending 1AM Wednesday
Forecast Details
At the Surface
A low pressure center that tracked through the Midwest this weekend will transfer its energy as it hits the Appalachians to a secondary low offshore of Virginia tonight. The low will then slowly track to the northeast as it deepens somewhat. This isn’t a particularly strong low, and it will elongate, translating eastwards overnight into Tuesday morning (see the last image in the gallery below). The North American models (GFS, NAM) suggest a colder scenario that would see higher snow totals (2nd, 3rd imges below), while the European model (1st image) shows potential for mixing Monday evening. Strong northeasterly winds will accompany the storm.
The presence of very cold air this weekend should help lead to better chances for big totals, however, the cold air will be retreating ahead of this storm, and cold air damming will be modest.
ECMWF “Euro” model 1000-500 mb pressure, thickness, and surface precipitation/type at 7PM Monday.
GFS model 1000-500 mb pressure, thickness, and surface precipitation/type at 7PM Monday.
NAM model 1000-500 mb pressure, thickness, and surface precipitation/type at 7PM Monday.
Weather Prediction Center storm track forecast.
850 mb Level
At this level, a strong easterly low-level jet will bring plenty of moisture into the cold conveyor belt of the storm. The advancement of the warm nose of the low will be key to where the greatest potential for deformation banding and the heaviest snowfall rates set up during the day Monday. The GFS and NAM models (2nd, 3rd images below) depict this warm nose staying just offshore. This would favor the best potential for a mesoscale band setting up right over NYC and slightly north as these bands are typically situated just on the cold side warm nose of a low.
500 mb Level
Part of the reason the surface low of this storm will progress so slowly, bounce around, and elongate is due to the presence of a closed 500 mb low accompanying it. This isn’t really a “classic” set up for a big nor’easter blizzard here, however, the closed low does help keep cold air aloft and help enhance lift via increasing the lapse rate between the surface and this level.
300 mb Level
A curved jet streak should set up just north and east of the developing low during the day Monday. The entrance region of this jet streak should allow stronger divergence and enhanced lift for this low.
An arctic chill with bitterly cold winds kicks off the weekend as strong high pressure moves in. Overnight lows in the teens and high temperatures in the 20s will range 10-15ºF below normal for this time of year. This cold air could set the stage for a nor’easter bringing significant snowfall to the region, with totals > 6″ possible Monday into Tuesday. As usual, track details on this storm will be pivotal, and are not clear at this time.
Rest of today – mostly clear, cold, and windy with high temperatures in the low-20s. A strong arctic high and a departing low will create a tight pressure gradient that ushers in stiff northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. Wind chills will hover around 0ºF. Overnight temperatures drop into the mid-teens with wind chills likewise dropping below zero.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday. A strong area of high pressure is parked over much of the Eastern US.
Saturday – winds abate with high pressure moving more directly overhead. Sunny, but still cold with high temperatures around 30ºF. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens under increasing cloud cover.
Sunday – mostly cloudy as the next storm system starts to work in. High temperatures around 30ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-20s with the possibility of snow developing overnight into Monday morning.
GFS model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
ECMWF model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
UKMET model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
Monday– stiff northeasterly winds developing along with snow. High temperatures in the low-30s. The storm possibly bringing us significant snow came ashore over the west coast yesterday and will be transiting the country the next couple days. It is eventually forecast to spawn a coastal low, bringing a nor’easter into our region. Even though cold air will precede this storm, offshore waters are still mild, in the low 40s-50s, and with the storm likely to bring southerly/northeasterly flow at the outset, we could see enough warming to mix to rain at the coast. Storm track and strength will be vital to the eventual snowfall totals. Models seem to signal a very tight banding feature bringing heavy snow – you’ve heard this before but these bands are notoriously difficult to pinpoint even a day ahead of the event. If the optimal scenario plays out, we could see a storm with similar or possibly bigger totals than the one in December. Overnight lows Monday shouldn’t budge much, in the low-30s, with some warm advection associated with portions of the storm.
