Weather conditions calm this week after a wet and unsettled weekend. Temperatures continue to trend below normal for this time of the year. Most of the week looks like it will be dry, with the next chance for rain coming over the weekend.
Rest of today – sunny, with a high near 60°F.
Tuesday – sun and clouds, a high again near 60°F.
Wednesday – slightly warmer with high temperatures possibly moving into the low-60s with more sun anticipated. High pressure should hold up enough to prevent any rain associated with a basically stationary low pressure system to our northeast.
Thursday – high temperatures in the low-60s, increasing clouds.
This weekend brings a drastic change in temperature from the last, with high temperatures fully 20°F cooler. Not only that, but a slow moving upper low pressure system will induce multiple rounds of rain resulting in an extended period of unsettled weather for the area. The most substantial rain occurs Friday. Temperatures remain 5-8°F below normal during this stretch which continues into next week.
Rest of today – enjoy the bright sun shine while it lasts. With high pressure still in control, expect mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the low-60s.
Friday – the same storm system that has been impacting the mid-Mississippi Valley with flooding rains starts to move into our region Friday. Steady rains and embedded thunderstorms throughout the day could bring a total of 1-2″ of rainfall totals. The band of heaviest rains appears likely to cross into the city around 11AM. Temperatures will be about the same as today, in the low-60s, under mostly cloudy skies.
Saturday – unfortunately, due to the slow moving nature of the low pressure system responsible for the rain Friday, there remains a lingering chance for rain Saturday, particular late in the day and into the evening. Temperatures remain cool in the low-60s.
Sunday – improving conditions, with rain chances finally diminishing. There could be some breaks for sun, with high temperatures hovering at just about 60°F.
Drought Almost Totally Gone, Cooler Temperatures Prevail
With all of the plentiful spring rains, only a very small slice of the Hudson Valley remains under abnormally dry conditions. Meanwhile, Climate Prediction Center points to cooler conditions continuing into the next 6-10 days.
A cool and dreary end of the week leads into a continued stretch of slightly below average temperatures for the weekend. Temperatures remain on the cool side with chances for rain to start next week before a warm up in the second half of next week. Far off in the Central Atlantic, a rare April tropical storm (Arlene) has formed.
Rest of today – rains moved through overnight and lingering showers this morning should end within the next couple hours. Cloudy with high temperatures only in the upper-50s to around 60°F.
Saturday – despite winds turning to the north with high pressure moving in from the west, temperatures should still rebound into the low-60s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Sunday – mostly cloudy to overcast with temperatures hovering around 60°F.
Monday – the next chance for rain comes in along with a developing coastal low that lingers through Tuesday. Timing of this coastal storm remains somewhat uncertain, so it could end up being somewhat of a pest early next week.
Rare April Tropical Storm
We’re still 2 full months off from the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which makes the formation of the first named storm of the season even more of a meteorological oddity. Tropical Storm Arlene will spend its life churning up the waters of the Central Atlantic without any impacts on land. It’s still worth noting that this is only the second time since the dawn of the satellite era that a tropical storm has been detected in April.
TS Arlene is the tight circulation located at around 50° W, 40° N
The incredible run of summer-like weather we’ve enjoyed the last week comes to a close as a more seasonable weather pattern takes hold this week. Temperatures will range from average to slightly below average and we’ll see a chance for rain late this week.
Tuesday – mostly clear skies with high temperatures in the upper-50s, possibly reaching into the low-60s. An easterly onshore breeze induced by a high pressure center to the northeast will bring cooler these cooler temperatures.
Wednesday – cooler day on tap with increasing clouds and high temperatures in the low-50s.
Thursday – chances for showers as a warm front then cold front push through from Thursday into Friday. High temperatures a bit warmer in the low-60s before the cold front passes.
Friday – chance of rain diminishing through the day with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures again in the low-60s.
Drought Over, Cooler, Wet Pattern in Store
With bountiful spring rains recently and that late winter snow storm, we’ve fully recovered from drought conditions across almost the entirety of the state with the exception of parts of the Hudson Valley and Catskills.
Multiple rounds of storms are expected to favor a cooler and wetter medium term outlook.
wwwThe first week of April kicks off with multiple rounds of rain. Two separate storms are expected to bring drenching rains on Tuesday and Thursday. There may be some minor flooding concerns with 1″ of rain possible out of each system, on top of the rains we received last week.
Rest of today – cloudy, mild, with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Not a bad day for the Mets season opener.
Tuesday – late Monday, rain starts moving in ahead of an advancing warm front. Rain should begin around 10PM this evening and pick up in intensity overnight. Some thunderstorms are possible. Rain continues through most of the work day Tuesday, with some heavy rain possible. Mild again with high temperatures in the upper-50s.
Wednesday – brief respite between two storm systems, a gem of a spring day with high temperatures in the low-60s and mostly sunny to clear skies.
Thursday – temperatures cool off into the low-50s as the second storm system of the week impacts us and brings us yet another round of moderate to heavy rains.
Enjoy the spring like temperatures while they last. A strong cold front is set to pass through the area late Saturday. Behind this front, temperatures will return to the low-50s, and perhaps colder. Looking ahead for the next week or so, it appears we will see a cyclical pattern of warm weather ahead of storm systems followed by a rush of colder air.
Rest of today – mild, clear skies, high temperatures have already hit nearly 70°F. Overnight, temperatures drop into the low-50s.
Saturday – still quite warm, near 60°F, but with overcast skies and chances for precipitation ramping up through the afternoon hours. A line of moderate to heavy rain is expected to pass through sometime in the early evening hours. Some thunderstorms may be possible with this line of storms.
Sunday – behind this cold front Saturday, temperatures crash back to normal in the mid-40s wtih sunny skies.
Monday – slightly warmer, mostly sunny, with high pressure in control. High around 50°F.
This week will see a marked transition from seasonable high temperatures in the low-40s to a much warmer period mid-late week that will be reminiscent of this past weekend’s record-breaking warmth. The only blemish on this spring preview is a slight chance for rain overnight Tuesday. Looking ahead, it appears March will be far from a lamb this year with a few storms rolling our way.
Rest of today – mild and above average with temperatures in the mid-upper 40s. Clear skies overhead. This will continue overnight and allow for good radiational cooling leading to overnight lows in the low-30s.
Tuesday – seasonable with high temperatures in the low-40s under mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – a warm up begins as a summer-like high pressure area sets up over Bermuda. This high pressure will induce a southwest flow ahead of a cold front to the west that will push warm air from the Southeast to our region. The result will be increasing clouds but high temperatures near 60°F.
Thursday – even warmer, with high temperatures reaching well into the mid-upper 60s with mostly sunny skies.
Warm Temperatures to Continue Through Weekend
I suppose Staten Island Chuck was right when he predicted a short winter, because it looks like above normal temperatures are expected through the end of this month. This weekend, look forward to more temperatures near 60ºF.
This weekend will be characterized by well above normal temperatures and fair conditions. This warm trend looks to continue into next week, and perhaps beyond. Enjoy the warmth, and the early preview of spring!
Rest of today – normal high temperatures around 40°F with sunny skies.
Saturday – significantly warmer, sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-50s as a warm front pushes through.
Sunday – warm again, possibly warmer than Saturday with temperatures approaching 60°F. High pressure to the southwest will continue to pump warm air from the deep south our way.
Monday – cooler, though still above normal, with high temperature around 50°F and sunny.
Warm Trend to Continue
Climate Prediction Center points to a high likelihood for above normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days for much of the Eastern United States. Looking ahead, after a brief cool down to begin next week, temperatures go right back up into the mid-upper 50s by the middle of next week.
We’re in for a wild ride over the course of the next 24 hours as our weather goes from possibly record-breaking warmth to what is expected to be the most significant winter storm so far this season. Significant snow accumulations over 6″ and possibly as much as a foot are expected across the region, resulting in a winter storm warning for all of the NYC metro region.
Timing
Judging by the amount of sun we’re getting, temperatures will likely hit record-breaking levels in the low-60s in the city today. They will drop steadily to around 50ºF by the evening commute as a cold front pushes through and Arctic air flows in from the north. Overnight, temperatures will continue falling rapidly to around freezing. Precipitation is expected to begin around 3-4AM Thursday here in the city and continue through the early afternoon. Unfortunately, the timing of the heaviest precipitation does look to bring significant impacts to the morning commute.
North American High Resolution simulated radar 1km resolution, tomorrow at 8AM.
Impacts
Rain/snow mix to start, but by the morning rush, expecting all snow through the region. Heavy snow at times possibly reaching 1-2″/hr. Some thundersnow could occur. Hazardous travel conditions during the morning rush as plows will have trouble keeping roads clear with traffic and the moderate to heavy snow. Gusty winds could produce near-blizzard conditions with low visibility.
Snowfall Totals
Here are some graphics for snowfall totals from our local National Weather Service Forecast office. The general forecast calls for 6″-12″ in the city. The exact extent of totals will depend, as is generally the case with this type of storm, on where the heaviest snow bands set up and for how long they sit over an any given area.
Probabilities for 4″+ and 6″+ of snow respectively
Discussion
An shortwave that’s made its way rapidly across the country from the Pacific will move along the cold front that is pushing through today. As it does so, it will spawn a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic that will strengthen rapidly as it moves over open water. At the same time, plenty of cold air will wrap around the deepening coastal low with high pressure to the west. This will put in place all the ingredients for a classic coastal winter storm for this area. The only thing keeping this storm from being a major blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 2 feet is the fairly quick pace that it’s expected to move at.
This coastal storm will drive the expected heavy snows tomorrow. Its track is expected to take it just outside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a spot that from a climatological perspective has translated to heavy snow storms for this region.
The weekend starts of with a chill and below average temperatures before a warmup. Temperatures will be above average for the second half of the week. Next chance for precipitation will come with a storm system moving in Tuesday. Looking ahead, expecting that Punxsutaney will be right, and there will be a cooldown again.
Rest of today – clouds decrease slowly. Chilly with high temperatures struggling to hit freezing. Brisk northwest winds will keep windchills below 20ºF.
Saturday – with strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley, we’ll see clear skies. However, since we will be on the east side of this high pressure center, cold air will continue to flow in from Canada, keeping high temperatures at around freezing.
Sunday – as this high pressure moves east, and we end up on the west side of it, clockwise flow around it will bring warmer are to the area, and temperatures will rebound into the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies.
Monday – above average temperatures in the low-40s continue with partly cloudy skies.
Drought Improves
Recent beneficial rains and snows have improved the drought situation statewide. However, moderate to severe drought continues to plague the downstate region.
