Tag Archives: high pressure

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 17, 2016

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Meteorologically, March is a month of highly changeable weather that can swing from one extreme to another. Thus far this month, we’ve seen snow, and record warm temperatures near 80ºF. This week is no different, and it ends with the possibility for a significant coastal storm that could bring accumulating snow to the region to ring in the official start of spring!

Rest of today – warm, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-60s. An unstable atmosphere looks primed to spawn a few scattered thunderstorms. Atmospheric dynamics are supportive of strong wind gusts and possibly small hail with any storms that form this afternoon. Some of these storms could approach severe limits. Based on the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output, there look to be two batches of storms, one impacting the region around 2PM, then again around 5:30PM. At the time of this post, two storm cells were moving slowly east over southern Bergen County and the western Bronx respectively.

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Friday – temperatures cool off into the low-mid 50s tomorrow, with a slight chance again for some afternoon showers, though nothing quite as significant as today.

Saturday – an area of polar high pressure will move over southeastern Canada, setting the stage for the winter storm Sunday. Saturday, however, will be a pleasant, sunny day, but temperatures will be below average in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – all eyes turn to a developing coastal storm/Nor’easter. Forecast models are having a rough time handling this storm, with wide variances noted among some of the models from day to day. Given the uncertainty at this time, only a couple days before the expected onset of the storm, it is difficult to guess at the snowfall accumulations from this storm. One thing that is well understood at this point is that temperature profiles will support a primarily snow event, with some rain mixing in at the coast. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit 40ºF. Snow should begin in the morning, mixing with rain in the afternoon Sunday afternoon before transitioning again to all snow overnight. A slight variation in the forecast storm track either west or east could result in dramatically different snowfall totals – more updates to come.

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Monday – temperatures rebound back into the mid-40s under partly sunny skies following the passage of this late season snow storm.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 10, 2016

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Another day of near record or record breaking temperatures is on tap for the region as a highly anomalous stretch of warm weather continues. Yesterday, Central Park hit 77ºF, shattering the old record of 69ºF set in 2000 by nearly 10ºF. Looking ahead, temperatures will moderate somewhat over the weekend, but will remain 10ºF+ warmer than normal for this time of year in the upper-50s to low-60s. We spring forward an hour into Daylight Savings Time on Sunday.

Rest of today – temperatures at this hour were already well into the upper-60s and just over 70ºF across the region. Today would easily be warmer than yesterday if not for the fact that current satellite trends suggest that widespread cloud cover will be moving in over the next couple of hours. Areas that experience more breaks in cloud cover today could break some records. Rain will develop, first to the north, then push through the whole area overnight tonight.

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Friday – clouds should clear up steadily through the day Friday. A cold front will move through, and will cause high temperatures to dip by about 10ºF compared to today, yielding highs in the low-60s, but that will still be over 10ºF above normal for this time of year.

Saturday – high pressure from the north takes control and gives us a beautiful, sunny day with high temperatures near 60ºF.

Sunday – similar temperatures to Saturday, but with increasing clouds as the next storm approaches the area.

Monday – cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s and rain.

Warm Trend Continues to Late March

Looking ahead, temperatures are forecast to continue at above normal levels through the majority of March.

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NYC Weather Update – Mar 7, 2016

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Although spring is still technically two weeks away, it certainly will not feel that way this week with some very warm weather coming our way. The warm temperatures appear to persist well into the latter part of this week, and onwards into the weekend.

Rest of today – a sunny preview of things to come this week with temperatures in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – the warm up begins with high temperatures easily reaching 60ºF in the city despite clouds.

Wednesday – as high pressure moves off of the East Coast, clockwise return flow on its western edge brings with it a surge of warmer air, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper-60s (probably topping 70ºF in the city also), breaking some daily records especially in interior regions.

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Thursday – a weak disturbance moves through late in the day on Thursday, but temperatures will remain warm in the upper-60s prior to this disturbance’s passage.

Friday – following the passage of the disturbance above, we get somewhat of a cool down, with high temperatures dropping 10ºF into the upper-50s on Friday. This is still well above normal for this time of year though!

Spring Warms Up Early

Looking ahead, Climate Prediction Center models suggest a high likelihood of above average temperatures for the entire Eastern United States in the 1-2 week range.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 3, 2016

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As we approach spring, the weather has a tendency to swing wildly between different extremes. We start this forecast period off with accumulating snow, while by this time next week, we are expecting temperatures in the 60s!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, but cool with below average high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Friday – overnight tonight into the first half of Friday, our area will get impacted by the northern fringe of what is expected to be a powerful coastal storm. Lucky for us, high pressure north of us is sufficiently strong so as to prevent this storm from hitting us dead one, which would certainly result in a more significant snowfall event. In this case, we are expecting to see snow in the range of 1-2″ across the city and Long Island with lesser amounts further north and west. Temperatures will remain colder than nom

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Saturday – high pressure takes control with skies clearing and temperatures in the low-40s. Another slight chance for snow Saturday night accompanies the passage of a clipper system.

Sunday – partly sunny with highs around average in the low-mid 40s.

Monday – temperatures start to warm up as the high pressure moves offshore to the east and warm, southwesterly return flow circles clockwise around its western periphery. High temperatures in the low-50s.

Warming Trend Ahead

With the aforementioned high pressure center offshore in the Atlantic early to mid-week next week, we’ll see increasingly warm temperatures, up into the 60s by Wednesday. This warm trend looks to continue over the course of the next week, with a brief cooldown late next week before what should be a warm weekend next week.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2016

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The main weather story this weekend will be a rather dramatic swing in temperatures. We start the weekend off with below normal temperatures and highs only in the upper-30s. By Monday, temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid-50s. The best day of the weekend will be Sunday with ample sunshine and mild highs in the low-50s.

Rest of today – sunny, with a cool northwest wind in the 20-25mph range, which will make it feel like the upper-20s with an actual high temperature in the upper-30s.

Saturday – winds abate and but temperatures remain cool in the upper-30s despite plenty of sunshine.

Sunday – a world of difference with temperatures topping out in the low-mid 50s.

High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest
High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest

Monday – continuing a mild trend with temperatures in the mid-50s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 29, 2016

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You’d be forgiven if you didn’t believe that a record-setting Nor’easter blizzard happened less than a week ago. A week of much above average temperatures and warm weather has quickly melted more than half of the snowpack that was left after the blizzard dropped 26.8″ (.1″ short of the all time record) in Central Park, breaking the single day storm total snowfall record with a new high of 26.6″. Except, of course, those huge snow mounds that are trapping your parked car. Warm weather, with high temperatures near or above 50ºF this weekend means that even more of this snow will melt away. Whatever’s left will likely be completely washed away mid-week next week when we’re expected to hit temperatures near 60ºF with thunderstorms possible.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high near 40ºF. A passing rain/snow shower caused by a weak passing disturbance in the upper atmosphere is possible this afternoon around 1PM.

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Saturday – brief clearing caused by an area of high pressure overnight will give way again to increasing clouds with high temperatures around 40ºF again.

Sunday – the high pressure moves quickly off to our east Sunday, allowing for clockwise return flow from the southwest to bring in warmer temperatures in the upper 40s under partly sunny skies.

Monday – warm temperatures continue with highs topping out around 50ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

Cooldown Coming

Don’t get too used to the warm temperatures because after mid-week next week, cold air returns to the Eastern United States for a period.

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Blizzard Brings Drought Relief

One of the best parts about this blizzard was that it brought along some much needed precipitation precisely to areas of the region that most needed it. As you’ll see below, since the blizzard past the area of New York State experiencing moderate drought has decreased from 6.80% to 2.04%, largely because areas of moderate drought in the NYC region and Long Island have gotten slammed with huge amounts of snow that will be replenishing the local watersheds as it melts.

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NYC Weather Update – Jan 4, 2016

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The new year starts off with a blast of Arctic cold that will plunge the mercury down into numbers we haven’t seen since last winter. We will be seeing the coldest weather thus far this winter to start this week, but temperatures will rebound back into above average range mid-week. We won’t be getting any precipitation to go along with this cold air, so no snow still for us this winter.

Rest of today – parts of the area have likely already seen their high temperatures for the day. In the city, we’ll struggle to get above freezing today. An arctic front moved through, and is allowing for much colder air to enter the region. Some parts of eastern Long Island may actually see snow flurries today, but the rest of the region should see mostly sunny skies.

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Tuesday – overnight lows will be downright frigid with temperatures at daybreak only in the teens for the city and single digits elsewhere. Couple that with stiff north winds and we’re looking at wind chill values in the single digits in the city. During the day Tuesday, north winds should slowly subside, but high temperatures will again only be near freezing.

Wednesday – the center of the high pressure responsible for bringing in the cold air will be close to us, meaning winds will become minimal, and will begin to shift from north to southwest as the high pressure continues moving to our east. This will allow for daytime highs to reach back up into the low-40s, which is 6-8ºF above normal.

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Thursday – looking like a very similar day to Wednesday, with high temperatures again in the low-40s and with sunny skies.

NYC Christmas Weather – Dec 22, 2015

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Winter officially began yesterday night at 11:49PM, though you wouldn’t be able to tell given the incredibly warm weather we’re experiencing and will continue to experience right through Christmas Day. Forget snow – we’re talking thunderstorms possibly happening on Christmas Eve. Hope Santa’s sleigh is electrically insulated!

Rest of today – periods of rain, heavy at times, and cloudy with high temperatures in the low-60s. Timing of a second round of heavier rain seems to be in the 1-3PM window, after which things will calm down.

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Wednesday – another impulse of energy will be arriving Wednesday and we’ll get another shot of rain along with it. The timing of the heaviest rain tomorrow appears to be later in the afternoon, around 4PM and the evening rush. High temperatures very similar to today in the low-60s.

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Thursday (Christmas Eve) – a substantial surge of warm, humid air from the Gulf ahead of a cold front (and around the western edge of a high pressure center located in the Western Atlantic) will almost certainly lead to record high temperatures being crushed across the region. We are talking the possibility of seeing high temperatures topping 70ºF, which for perspective is close to 30ºF above average for this time of year. Because of the warmth and humidity, the atmosphere will be unstable enough to support isolated thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through, though coverage will be isolated at best.

Friday (Christmas) – after the cold front moves through Thursday, we’ll cool off a bit and dry out, but we’re still talking about temperatures easily in the low-60s which could lead to more records being broken. For those who love the milder temperatures, this is certainly a big gift.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 18, 2015

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We get a taste of cool weather this weekend, with high temperatures at or slightly below normal for Saturday and Sunday, before we rebound strongly into much above average and possibly record-breaking warmth once again by mid-week next week. Saturday in particular will be feel quite brisk, with a stiff wind from the west dropping wind chills into the 30s. There could even be a couple snow flurries north and west of the city!

Rest of today – mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with high temperatures hovering in the mid-50s. Temperatures will fall rapidly to near freezing in the city overnight.

Saturday – the low pressure system that was responsible for the soaking rains Thursday will continue to intensify as it moves over the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. As a high pressure center builds to the south, a tightening pressure gradient will yield stiff winds in the 15-25mph range on Saturday. This, combined with a blast of cold air behind the cold front that passed yesterday, will result in high temperatures only in the low-40s, with wind chills making it feel like the 30s throughout the day. There could be enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple flurries over the interior!

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Sunday – high pressure will remain in control Sunday, so expect sunny skies, and with the high pressure center closer to us, the pressure gradient will diminish. Winds should likewise calm down, and it will feel considerably less raw with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Monday – temperatures will jump into the low-mid 50s as the high pressure above moves to our east and return flow of warmer air from the south and southwest begins to take hold.

 

White Christmas? Not a chance.

Looking ahead at the week of Christmas coming up – not only will there be no chance of a white Christmas on the Eastern Seaboard, we could be looking at record-breaking warmth again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s! The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook and 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook are both strongly confident (> 90% probability) that we will see warmer than average temperatures.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 10, 2015

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The weekend coming up will see some unusually warm weather coming our way. In fact, high temperatures on Sunday may well approach record-breaking territory at 60ºF or even higher. This near-record warm trend won’t last through next week, so definitely take advantage of this weekend for some outdoor activities.

Rest of today – partly sunny with highs in the upper 50s.

Friday – with a warm front passing through overnight, areas of fog may develop early Friday morning. Once the fog clears, we should see mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures will again be in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.
Saturday – temperatures continue to warm into the low-60s on Saturday with partly sunny skies. High pressure firmly entrenched over the Southeast will be the primary driver allowing a surge of warm air to enter our region.
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Sunday – we could see record-breaking warmth across the region Sunday, with this high pressure still in control and a cold front approaching from the west, increasing the flow of warm air into the area. High temperatures should easily break 60ºF. If cloud cover is less than currently expected, records are likely to be broken.
Monday – the aforementioned cold front makes its approach across the region, bringing us a good chance at some meaningful rain. High temperatures preceding the cold front’s passage are still expected to be quite warm, near 60ºF.
Short-term Temperature Outlook & El Niño’s Impact
Although temperatures will cool somewhat after the cold front passes on Monday, they will nonetheless remain a good deal above average. Seasonal average high temperatures for this time in December are in the low-40s! Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 temperature outlook has our region at a near certain probability of seeing above average temperatures.
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This coheres well with generally understood impacts of an El Niño winter in North America.
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