Tag Archives: high pressure

NYC Weather Update – Dec 7, 2015

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A rather uneventful beginning to the work week in terms of weather will be followed by a gradual warmup towards the end of the week. Temperatures the past couple of months have been very much above normal, and in some cases approaching the warmest months on record – this trend looks set to continue at least through to early next week and possibly longer.

Rest of today – surprisingly, there is an Air Quality Alert in effect this afternoon through midnight. Some lingering haze has been a smudge on what will otherwise be a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – more clouds than sun to start the day, but then clouds diminish as an offshore low exits to our east. This offshore low is not expected to bring any precipitation to the area since it will be passing too far to the south of us. Temperatures will actually be a little cooler than today – in the mid-upper 40s – since winds circulating counterclockwise around this low will be coming from the north.

 

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Wednesday – as the low above exits, a high pressure center will begin to take hold. Return flow from the south around the western edge of this high pressure and a passing warm front will again bring in milder air. High temperatures are expected to be similar to today in the mid-50s, with mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – the warmup continues with temperatures expected to be a couple degrees warmer than on Wednesday, and with ample sunshine.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 04, 2015

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A quite and mild weekend is in store for the region with high pressure in control of the weather throughout the period. Temperatures should climb steadily as winds shift and persist from the southwest. We could see high temperatures near 60ºF by Sunday.

Rest of today – clear to mostly sunny, with highs around 50.

Saturday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Sunday – milder, and sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.

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Monday – clouds look to be increasing on Monday with a storm system approaching from the south expected to pass on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler in the mid-50s.

Seasonal Climate Outlooks

As we are entering into the winter, it’s worth looking ahead at what the seasonal climate out looks are from the Climate Prediction Center.

Drought conditions are expected to improve over many areas of the nation, and the persistent moderate drought in our region is forecast to end.

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Temperature and precipitation are forecast to be above normal for the region. As you’ll note from the images below, some fairly significant deviations from normal are expected across large portions of the United States, due in large part to the effects of a strong El Niño that’s been gripping the Eastern and Central Pacific for months now.

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The chart below shows you the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific – notice that a large swathe of the equatorial Pacific from about the international date line east is experiencing extremely warm temperatures for this time of year – a full 5ºC above normal in large areas. This is why climate forecasters can be more confident than usual in their outlooks for temperature and precipitation this season.

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NYC Thanksgiving Weather – Nov 23, 2015

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Thanksgiving week starts off with a chill, but temperatures will warm nicely to end the week. Thanksgiving Day itself is shaping up to be a superb day with above normal temperatures near 60ºF and mostly sunny skies. There’s no real threat of precipitation worth mentioning through the week either.

Rest of today – cool with a high only in the low-40s.

Tuesday – will start off with temperatures barely above freezing in the city, and well below freezing in the outlying suburbs. In fact, a freeze watch has been issued for the city (with the exception of Staten Island, which already had a freeze earlier this fall). Winds will still be kicking up in the early part of the day, bringing wind chill values in the 30s. High temperatures only in the mid-40s.

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Wednesday – the high pressure depicted above will move offshore to our east. This puts us on the west side of the high, and the clockwise, return flow around that high pressure will mean a gradual shift in winds to the southwest, bringing warmer air along with it. Temperatures should rebound back into the lower-50s with lots of sunshine.

Thanksgiving Day – really can’t ask for better viewing conditions for the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Temperatures at the start of the parade should be in the upper-40s to near 50ºF. Light winds should not present a problem for the multitude of balloons. High temperatures should reach into the mid-upper 50s by the afternoon.

Friday – should end up being the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the low-60s ahead of an approaching cold front.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 19, 2015

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A soaking rainstorm passes through the area later today and then paves the way for cooler, drier air to take over this weekend. By the end of this weekend, temperatures will only be in the low-50s and even upper-40s going into Monday. Looking ahead, temperatures return to normal ranges in the low-50s next week before another warmup around Thanksgiving. Currently, it looks as though the first week of December will open up with cooler than average temperatures.

Rest of today – cloudy and warm with a steady wind from the southeast. Scattered light rain is occurring across parts of the area now. The heavier rain should begin falling later this afternoon (around the PM rush) as more moisture works its way in from the south and the storm system closes in, providing better atmospheric conditions for rain. The rains are still much needed for most of the Tri-State area (in particular Souther Connecticut and Long Island) that remains in the grip of a moderate drought.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST

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Friday – rain ends overnight into Friday morning. Skies clear rapidly with temperatures topping out in the mid-50s.

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary that will pass early Friday. This high pressure will shift winds to the west and then northwest, bringing in cooler, drier air from Canada. Temperatures will only be around 50 on Saturday as a result.

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Sunday – pretty much a clone of Saturday, mostly sunny skies, cool with highs around 50ºF.

Monday – cooler, with high temperatures that may struggle to hit 50ºF.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 16, 2015

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This week will feature a mixed bag of warm and cool temperatures, along with a bout of moderate-heavy rain and even a couple thunderstorms associated with a cold front passing through the region on Thursday into Friday. Timing of this frontal passage isn’t 100% certain at this point. However, it is clear that behind this front, temperatures will take a dive into more seasonable ranges in the upper-40s to around 50ºF by this weekend.

Rest of today – clear skies with a high temperature well into the mid-60s. This is due in part to high pressure to our south that’s allowing for warm air to flow in from the west.

Tuesday – quite a different story in terms of temperatures. A backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, leading to a shift in winds to the northeast by tomorrow. This wind pattern favors cooler temperatures as the winds circulating clockwise around a high pressure center over the Canadian Maritimes bring in a cooler airmass. High temperatures will struggle to hit 50ºF in this atmosphere.

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Wednesday – temperatures quickly rebound as winds switch back to the south-southeast ahead of a cold front which will be passing through the area sometime late Thursday. Cloud should increase during the day, but enough sun should still get through to get temperatures back to near 60.

Thursday – a mostly cloudy day with periods of rain throughout looks to be the headline for Thursday. Temperatures should warm up nicely into the mid-60s with warm, moist air entering the area from the south ahead of the actual cold front. Periods of heavy rain at times could be accompanied by an occasional thunderstorm especially as the cold front nears.gfs_namer_075_1000_850_thick 2

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 12, 2015

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Periods of rain this afternoon give way to drier weather over the weekend as a cold front passes through late today into the overnight hours. Drier weather prevails this weekend, though with the passage of this cold front, gusty northwest winds will enter the region, bringing in significantly cooler temperatures for Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday as we enter another period of slightly above normal temperatures.

Rest of today – showers have moved out of the area at this point, but a few scattered showers may still pop up later today. Otherwise, cloudy with high temperatures already peaking around 60.

Friday – mostly sunny with winds from the west in the 15-20mph range, gusts up to 30mph.

Saturday – winds again in the 15-20mph range with gusts up to 30-35mph. Sunny skies, but temperatures well below normal in the upper-40s, highs may not break 50 in the city. With the winds, it will feel like temperatures are in the upper-30s to low-40s.

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Sunday – winds finally start subsiding, and temperatures will rebound back to around normal in the mid-50s with sunny skies.

Monday – as the high pressure depicted above begins moving to our east, southwest flow on its backside will bring temperatures back into the low-60s.

 

NYC Weather Update – Nov 2, 2015

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It’s the first week of November, but it will feel more like late September with the warm temperatures that are on tap for this week. A robust ridge of high pressure will set up over the area and persist through most of the week, allowing for a very mild airmass to build into the region and set the stage for some unseasonable warmth.

Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Tuesday – clouds clear out with high temperatures warming into the low-70s.

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Wednesday – warm temperatures continue with highs around 70 and sunny skies.

Thursday – more clouds than sun, but warm again with a high near 70.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 22, 2015

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The warm spell that we’ve enjoyed in the city up to this point will be ending tomorrow. While temperatures will cool off this weekend, we won’t be seeing anything close to the chilly lows we saw last weekend. We’ll have good weather Saturday before another cold front pushes through late Saturday into Sunday, which could spark off a few showers.

Rest of today – temperatures are surging into the mid-70s ahead of a cold front that will push through later today and overnight. There could be a small chance for showers associated with this cold front later, though it’s more likely this front will be dry.

Friday – high pressure builds behind this passing cold front. Cooler temperatures with highs only around 60 in the wake of this cold front despite plenty of sunshine.

Saturday – temperatures will be similar to Friday, but with clouds on the increase as another cold front approaches late Saturday. Some showers may occur with this cold front passing through overnight into Sunday morning.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-60s before the cold front passes. A chance of showers early, and the mostly cloudy.

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Fall Foliage

This weekend should have good conditions for anyone traveling upstate apple picking or viewing fall colors. Check out this map to see where the foliage has peaked.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 19, 2015

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This weekend featured much below normal temperatures for this time of year and several rounds of frosts/hard freezes. The frigid airmass responsible for these temperatures will finally be pushed north of the area tomorrow as high pressure builds over the Southeastern United States. Return flow from the south and southwest around this area of high pressure should lead to temperatures that will be in the normal to above normal range for the majority of this week.

Rest of today – still chilly today with high temperatures only topping out around 50 in the city and cooler in the surrounding suburbs under mostly clear skies.

Tuesday – clockwise flow around an area of high pressure building to our south will enable southwesterly and westerly winds to usher in a much warmer airmass into the region. Temperatures should rebound nicely tomorrow into the mid-upper 60s in the city with partly sunny skies.

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Wednesday – the warm trend continues, with temperatures Wednesday expected to be similar if not even a couple degrees warmer in the low-70s.

Thursday – a cold front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday, so clouds are expected to increase ahead of it, though no rain is expected at this time. Prior to the passage of this cold front, temperatures should remain warm in the upper-60s to near 70 again.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 15, 2015

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If you like crisp, cool, fall weather, then this coming weekend is for you. Following a cold front moving through tonight into tomorrow, temperatures this weekend will feel more like November than October, with highs only in the low-50s on Sunday. Depending on wind conditions, this Sunday and Monday morning may see the first frosts/freezes of the season. The cooler than normal temperature trend continues into Monday, but warmer temperatures return by mid-week next week.

Rest of today – an archetypal fall day with high temperatures right around normal in the mid-60s and a clear sky.

Friday – mostly cloudy to start the day with some very small chance at rain as a cold front passes over. Once the front clears the region, skies should clear and temperatures will actually be a bit warmer in the mid-upper 60s.

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Saturday – behind the cold front passing on Friday, temperatures take a plunge with gusty northwest winds flowing around an area of high pressure building to our west. High temperatures will probably not break 60ºF in the city, even cooler in the outlying suburbs.

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Sunday –  the airmass associated with this high pressure will likely set off the first snows of the season in parts of the Upper Midwest. Not surprisingly, this will translate to chilly temperatures Saturday night, Sunday and Monday. Lows overnight into Sunday will be in the upper-30s in the city (brrr). Frost may develop on Sunday morning in interior areas, ending the growing season. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit the mid-50s in the city.

Monday – basically a repeat of Sunday, same crisp, cool conditions with high temperatures in the mid-50s.