A slow moving low pressure and upper level low will result in the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the weekend with temperatures in the low-80s. Best chances for these diurnally driven thunderstorms would be in the afternoon hours. There’s a good amount of moisture in the air this weekend with steady southerly flow, so these storms could produce heavy rain, though severe weather is not anticipated. Past this weekend, a warmup to the mid-upper-80s (90s in interior) is forecast as upper level ridging and high pressure builds next week.
Saturday – fog early with cooler, marine flow. Temperatures warm into the low-80s with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms particularly north and west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – Similar pattern to Saturday with partly sunny skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms developing later in the day particularly west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Monday – this pattern persists with partly sunny skies, highs in the low-80s and chances for isolated PM thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
GFS model 500 mb temperature, height, and wind forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Tuesday– high pressure builds offshore, with upper level ridging and 500 mb temperatures increasing, we should see sunny skies and very warm temperatures nearing 90ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.
We have a muggy, strormy, and warm start to the weekend with temps in the 80s. Tomorrow, a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. This will bring relief from the humidity and heat. High pressure builds in going into next week with temperatures back to seasonable ranges in the 70s. We should see an extended period of dry, sunny weather as a result.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy overall with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some shortwaves and surface troughs moving through will serve as the focal point for thunderstorm development. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today to tap, so storms could produce heavy rainfall, and if enough hit the same locations via training/backbuilding there is potential for localized flooding. Overnight lows in the upper-60s as storm chances continue with fog possible late.
GFS model precipitable water at 8PM today, with values as high as 2.00″ around NYC.
Saturday – clouds diminishing during the day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front moves through in the afternoon, but will not have the benefit of having as much moisture as today to tap into. Still, an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Downsloping winds behind the cold front should help dry and warm things up. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Sunday – high pressure starts to build and skies remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Monday– high pressure continues to build and provide us another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
While it looked earlier this weekend that this would be a rainy week, it now appears that strong high pressure will keep two storm systems largely at bay. One of these will be the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur that formed this weekend. The tradeoff is that this high of Canadian origin will bring cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s. This pattern breaks up by late this week, yielding warmer temperatures in the 70s by this weekend.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy though no rain expected with high temperatures around 70ºF. Clouds from the two storm systems below will remain throughout the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s as skies gradually clear.
In this GOES geocolor visible satellite loop, you can clearly see two centers of circulation – one over the Midwest associated with a maturing mid-latitude cyclone, and one over the Atlantic – Tropical Storm Arthur.Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.
Tuesday – high pressure continues building, and blocks the northward and northeastward progress of both storms. Temperatures cool into the mid-60s despite more sun with northeasterly onshore winds. Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to have undergone extratropical transition by this point, and potentially strengthened due to baroclinic forcing. The proximity of this storm to the high pressure will produce a tight pressure gradient resulting in stronger winds during the day Tuesday. Overnight around 50ºF.
Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, producing sunny skies. High temperatures still cooler than normal in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 23-27: temperatures appear ready to rebound going into this weekend to above normal levels.
Thursday– sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s still. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.
Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Monday– rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather
Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.
National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.
Record setting cold this weekend that led to rare May snows will feel like another life time by the end of this week when temperatures will soar to near or above 80ºF. A general warming trend will take place until then, bookended by rain chances today and Friday due to a couple passing storms.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with hig temperatures in the upper-50s. A fast moving storm could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s as skies clear.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.
Tuesday – sunny high pressure building, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Wednesday – high pressure steadily moves east, bringing another day of sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 16-20, finally, it looks like we get a break from below normal temperatures!
Thursday– high temperatures warm into the mid-60s with high pressure still in control giving us mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.
Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Monday– once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday
An active weather pattern brings yet another week of cool, rainy weather. Tuesday will be the only day with sunny skies and near normal temperatures with high pressure briefly building in. Otherwise, a couple slow moving storms will bring clouds and rain the rest of the week. This will result in temperatures largely running below seasonal averages. I suppose that’s some incentive for people to stay safe and quarantine at home?
Rest of today – early rain chances should diminish steadily. High temperatures cool, only around 50ºF under the influence of northerly flow as the slow moving coastal storm that impacted us yesterday and today moves off to the northeast. Clouds should start to diminish later in the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
NAM output forecast cloud cover for 11AM Tuesday
Tuesday – we should see a brief window of sunny skies and dry weather as high pressure builds and passes over for the day. This break in rainy weather should allow temperatures to climb into the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Wednesday – the reprieve from dreary conditions barely lasts a day as yet another storm system takes aim at the area. With the high pressure Tuesday slow to move east, this next storm will be similarly as slow moving as this past weekend’s storm. The result for Wednesday, even if we don’t get too much in the way of rain, will be cloudy conditions and cool, southeasterly onshore flow ahead of an advancing warm front. This will cause temperatures to cool into the mid-50s. Overnight lows barely budge, and hover around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Thursday
Thursday– the second storm of the week hits with steady rain and southeasterly onshore breezes. Warm advection could help temperatures stay slightly above 60ºF, with overnight lows in the low-50s.
Two coastal lows bring will rain today and Sunday. Saturday ends up being a nice day in between with some high pressure building briefly. The second coastal storm coming on Sunday drags into Monday bringing rain and cool temperatures. Throughout this period, temperatures will range at least 5ºF below normal. This below normal temperature trend, largely a continuation of this week, looks set to continue well into next week.
Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy conditions and periods of steady rain off and on for much of the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain winding down and clouds clearing.
Saturday – sunny skies and high pressure should allow temperatures to climb to about 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – unfortunately, the dry weather doesn’t last as a second storm moves in for Sunday, bringing yet more rain and cool, cloudy weather. High temperatures topping out only in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Monday– high temperatures still suppressed in the low-50s as this second storm lifts to the east. Overnight lows in the low-40s. Going into next week, temperature will stay below normal, anywhere between 5-10ºF. Later in the week, it appears a potent, closed 500 mb low will be the culprit for keeping temperatures down (and bringing yet more rain to us)
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Apr 29-May 3, showing below average temperatures continuing to affect much of the northeastern quadrant of the US
GFS 500 mb temperature, height and winds for 2AM Thursday, Apr 30. A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario – this will be partly responsible for cooler than normal temperatures.
A couple storm systems will impact NYC this week. The first of these could bring some thunderstorms and gusty conditions tomorrow afternoon. Later this week on Thursday, a second storm bringing steadier rain will move through. Temperatures throughout this period will be generally 5ºF below normal. Tuesday and Wednesday overnight lows could bottom out in the upper-30s.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy, with clouds diminishing later, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday
Tuesday – quick moving storm will push a warm front and then a strong cold front through Tuesday afternoon. Showers should begin in the afternoon and a line of thunderstorms is possible with the cold front. High temperatures around 60ºF with southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.
Wednesday – the low bringing the rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday continues to strengthen. The pressure gradient will tighten around this low and bring windy conditions but with sunny skies. High temperatures cool off into the low-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.
GFS 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 2AM Thursday. A cold night in store for many parts of the Northeast!
Thursday– partly sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the upper-50s. Overnight lows around 50ºF with rain developing.
An extended period of cool temperatures continues for the rest of the week into the weekend. During this period, highs will generally 10ºF below average. A weak storm passes through Friday night into Saturday bringing the chance for rain. Temperatures finally warm up to start next week though this may not last.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure building. High temperatures in the low-50s. Cold overnight lows in the mid-30s with a cool air mass in place. If skies remain clear and winds decouple overnight, we could see even colder overnight temperatures.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Friday
Friday – with a cold start to the day, high temperatures will be hindered around 50ºF. Clouds increase as a low pressure center moves towards us. Rain chances increase later in the day and into the overnight. Overnight lows around 40ºF
Saturday – rain ending early, as the storm system slides east of us. High temperatures hampered by this early rain and clouds, reaching into the mid-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for April 21-25, showing chances for below normal temperatures in the Northeast
Sunday– high temperatures start warming up to around 60ºF. Overnight lows will likewise warm into the upper-40s.
