Hurricane Irma is moving away from the north shore of Cuba and entering the very warm waters of the Florida Straits. While it’s still moving west-northwest, it is still anticipated to finally make a turn towards the northwest as it’s rounding the southwestern periphery of the high pressure over the Atlantic that has steered it up to this point.

Current Situation

Irma’s eye shows some signs of organization and clearing up. The National Hurricane Center still pegs the storm as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. As outlined in previous posts, the land interaction with Cuba has produced adverse effects on Irma, disrupting its core and causing it to weaken. However, now that it is clearing the island of Cuba and into the open waters of the Florida Straits, it should still have a window to re-intensify before hitting Florida.

Headlines

• Forecast models are converging on a solution that takes Irma just inland and parallel to the west coast of Florida after a landfall near Marco Island.
• First landfall could occur somewhere between Key West and Marathon Key.
• Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Naples, Port Charlotte, and the Tampa Bay area are under serious risk of a direct hit from the eye of Irma, which could regain Category 4 strength. Storm surge is a major concern for the west coast of Florida and the southwest of the state in particular.
• Miami and the South Florida region are less at risk from the worst of the winds, but other hazards like flooding, storm surge, and tornadoes persist. Again, the strongest winds of a hurricane in the northern hemisphere occur on the eastern side of the storm, which will impact the east coast of Florida.
• Should the track of Irma inland but near the coast bear out, this would likely result in a slower decline in the hurricane’s strength. It would bring more risk of inland hurricane impacts to Georgia.

Forecast Track

Forecast Intensity

The National Hurricane Center forecast does call for some moderate re-intensification of Irma prior to landfall in Florida. This forecast calls for sustained winds of 140 mph prior to landfall. There are no inhibiting factors to the storm re-intensifying once it gets over open water. Wind shear is low. Sea surface temperatures are very warm.

Uncertainties

• Internal fluctuations in the storm could still interrupt any re-strengthening.
• On the other hand, there is a small chance for some rapid intensification if the storm gets organized again.
• Since model forecasts haven’t changed since earlier today, this lends higher confidence to a track along the west coast of Florida.