Tag Archives: low pressure

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 23, 2018

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A wet and unsettled weekend is coming up for NYC after a week that saw record-breaking warmth and large temperature swings. Back-to-back mid-latitude cyclones with their attendant warm and cold fronts will move through the area bringing a cloudy, gloomy feel, and plenty of chances for rain.

Rest of today – multiple rounds of rain showers possible through the morning and afternoon hours ahead of a warm front advancing from the southwest. Rain chances diminishing after around 6PM this evening. Overcast otherwise with a high temperature in the low-40s.

Saturday – overnight temperatures warming due to warm advection ahead of that warm front. We’ll end up in the warm sector of the first of these two mid-latitude cyclones on Saturday with high temperatures rising into the mid-upper 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Some chance for a scattered shower more likely later in the day as some post-frontal rain develops with a cold front exiting to the east.

Sunday – slightly cooler, high temperatures in the upper-40s. Another cloudy day, with rain continuing from overnight Saturday as first a warm front then a cold front moves through with this second storm system.

Monday – finally a dry day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-50s after this chain of storms!

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 16, 2018

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This holiday weekend will feature some wild swings in temperature. We’ll bookend the weekend with chances for rain, but in between, we may see some decent accumulating snow. So much for an early spring.

Rest of today (Lunar New Year) – the year of the dog arrives on a cloudy day with temperatures dropping through the course of the day on the heels of a couple cold fronts pushing through. We have a break in the rain right now, but more will arrive later in the day. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front and increase in speed, bringing in a much colder air mass that will set the stage for snow on Saturday.

Saturday – much colder with temperatures topping out around 40°F after a very cold start. Increasing clouds as an area of low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast brings us the chance for accumulating snow. This coastal storm should be fairly fast mover, but forecasters think it will still bring enough precipitation to warrant a winter storm watch. The official forecasts are calling for a range of 4-8″ overnight Saturday into Sunday. Based on current forecast ensembles, I’m inclined to side with the lower end of that range and call for 4″ at best. As usual, the exact timing and track of this storm could still change a bit before the actual event. A slightly slower or slightly more northerly track would result in higher totals, and conversely a faster and more southerly track would result in only minor accumulations.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-40s and decreasing clouds. Whatever snow we get will begin to melt almost immediately.

Monday (President’s Day) – warmer still with high temperatures in the low-50s and chances for rain as a warm front approaches.

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 2, 2017

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The groundhogs have spoken. Our own Staten Island Chuck predicts an early spring, while his more famous counterpart Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter. Well, it certainly won’t feel like spring this coming weekend as we endure chilly conditions today and tomorrow before a slight warm up with a chance for precipitation Sunday.

Rest of today – clear, but windy with a northwest breeze 20-25 mph range. This will quickly sweep in much colder Arctic air via cold advection, and as a result temperatures will drop through the day from a high around 30°F.

Saturday – with overnight lows dropping into the teens, Saturday will likewise be a cold day with high temperatures only reaching around 30°F. Clouds will increase as the warm front associated with the next area of low pressure to hit the area moves in late in the day.

Sunday – with the warm front passing over us, winds turn to the southwest and warm advection will result in temperatures warming overnight into Sunday when high temperatures are expected to reach the low-40s. Precipitation in association with the cold front attached to the low pressure below will likely begin as all snow in the city before transitioning to a rain/snow mix or all rain with temperatures rising well above freezing. Little to no snow accumulation is expected – but the journey to and back from various Super Bowl related festivities will be messy.

Monday – things dry out and conditions improve as temperatures top out in the upper-30s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Chuck’s Wrong, Phil’s Right

Unfortunately for those of you who like warmer weather, Staten Island Chuck’s prediction of an early spring is likely to be off the mark. A progressive series of storm systems and an oscillating jet stream will bring multiple bouts of cold weather to the area before the winter’s out. Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of 33% chance for below normal temperatures in their monthly outlook.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 19, 2018

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The relatively minor cold spell we’ve had this week transitions into a dramatic warm up going into the weekend. Above normal temperatures will persist into the beginning of next week before moderating later in the week. We have a chance for a soaking rain beginning Monday night going into Tuesday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with some gradual clearing later. High temperatures in the upper-30s to around 40ºF.

Saturday – much warmer due to a dramatic shift in the jet stream with high temperatures around 50ºF with warm air rushing in from the south and west ahead of a frontal boundary. The polar jet that’s brought a return of cold air to the region will be pushed considerably further north of us with high pressure building to the southwest. This is a setup favoring much warmer air flowing in from the south and west.

Sunday – a backdoor cold front will sweep in from the northeast, bringing cooler, more moist air from the Canadian Maritimes, leading to high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly sunny.

Monday – cloudy with a high in the low-40s and increasing chances of rain as a vigorous low pressure system approaches from the southwest.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 11, 2017

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We got our first round of snow of the winter season in NYC this past weekend, with snowfall totals generally between 2-4″ from the event. We open this week with another chance for precipitation, but this time more likely in a mixed mode. An arctic blast hits for the mid-week period before yet another storm system brings our next chance of snow and rain Friday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, cool, with high temperatures slightly below normal around 40°F.

Tuesday – a low pressure system moving east from the Great Lakes will impact the region with a mix of rain and snow. This time around we’ll be on the warm side of the storm, so we’ll likely see mostly rain at the coast. A warm front will pass through overnight. Temperatures will rise into the upper-40s in the warm sector for tomorrow. Precipitation most likely will occur in the morning. Mostly cloudy otherwise.

Wednesday – as this low pressure tracks into the Canadian Maritimes and deepens, a strengthening pressure gradient on its back side will lead to much colder and windier conditions. High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark with partly sunny skies after a very cold night with low temperatures in the low-20s. Stiff west winds 20-25 mph with stronger gusts will make wind chills feel much colder.

Thursday – another cold day with high temperatures only around the freezing mark and partly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 8, 2017

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The weather headline for this weekend will be our first accumulating snow of the season! Aside from this, below average and cold temperatures will be in place throughout the weekend and well into next week. This persistent cold spell has a direct link to high pressure over the western US that has resulted in fires in California. Another chance for additional accumulating snow is possible early next week.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies. Snow beginning in the overnight hours into tomorrow.

Saturday – snow throughout the day, accumulations of largely between 2-4″ during the day expected in the city, but with higher totals moving east, in the 4-6″ range for parts of Queens, and Brooklyn. High temperatures in the low-30s.

A coastal storm will develop and strengthen off the Southeast coast as an upper level shortwave and a jet streak work to enhance it. The jet streak in particular will provide strong lift for the development of snow showers. Thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere in our region will support all snow. Model trends seem to continue nudging the track westward over the past couple of days. Further shifts west would result in higher snowfall totals, which are suggested by the GEFs plumes in the last image in this section that point a range of 6-8″ of snow for LGA.

Weather Prediction Center surface low tracks and clusters. Focus on the coastal low track. The mean track takes this storm very close to the 40°N 70°W benchmark, a location for coastal low centers that generally translates to robust snowfall for winter storms.

Sunday – an additional accumulation of an inch or so is forecast overnight Saturday as snow begins tapering off going into Sunday. As the low pulls away, winds will turn to the west and strengthen. High temperatures will actually be somewhat warmer in the upper-30s with mostly sunny skies.

Monday – mostly sunny skies again with high temperatures around 40°F.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 4, 2017

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The biggest weather headline for the beginning to mid-week period will be the passage of a warm front and then a robust cold front. This will bring us a dramatic swing in temperatures along with moderate to heavy rain overnight Tuesday. Late in the week, our eyes turn towards a developing coastal low, with temperatures well within the range to support snow, there’s a chance for us to see our first accumulating snows of the season this weekend.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 50°F. High pressure remains in control during the day while it moves offshore.

Tuesday – cloudy with much warmer high temperatures nearing 60°F behind the passage of a warm front in the early morning hours. We’ll be in the warm sector of a low that will be centered well north of us in Ontario, and warm air will flow in from the southwest ahead of a cold front. Rain chances increasing during the day, with the best chances for rain starting in the afternoon. Rain continues overnight, moderate to heavy at times.

Wednesday – rain chances continue into the morning. Clearing conditions, with winds turning to the winds once the cold front clears our area. High temperatures peak at around 50°F but fall during the day.

Thursday – noticeably colder, with overnight lows in the low-30s. High temperatures in the mid-40s, a couple degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.

 

Weekend Snow?

Model runs over the past couple days suggest the possibility for multiple storm systems that could bring snow over the weekend. The more significant of these would be a possible coastal storm. However, the latest model runs suggest this storm would take a track too far offshore to affect us with significant precipitation. A second, weaker disturbance could move through Sunday as well. Temperatures will definitely be cold enough to support snow, especially during overnight hours. Later in the week, we should see clearer signals about whether we’ll get our first accumulating snow this season during the weekend.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 17, 2017

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A cool Friday and Friday night yields to a rainy, though milder weekend. A return to largely below normal temperatures to start the week. Looking ahead into next week, weather conditions should be fair and without disruptions for the busy travel days around Thanksgiving.

Rest of today – sunny, cool and windy with high temperatures in the upper-40s. Northwest winds 15-20 mph with higher gusts though diminishing as the day progresses.

Saturday – increasing clouds as a warm front attached to a low pressure center over the Great Lakes approaches the area. Increasing clouds as winds shift to a warmer and wetter southerly direction. Chances for rain increasing through the day, with mostly cloudy skies otherwise and high temperatures in the upper-50s.

Sunday – rain chances are highest overnight from Saturday into Sunday. Low temperatures should be on the warm side near 50°F. Rain continues into Sunday morning prior to the passage of the cold front pictured above. Once that cold front pushes through, clouds should gradually break. High temperatures are anticipated to reach in the mid-50s again. However, on the back side of the cold front, we’ll see fairly strong winds returning from the northwest with a large pressure gradient. This will lead to temperatures dropping back into the 40s by the evening.

Monday – sunny skies but much cooler again with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 3, 2017

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This weekend’s weather will be a tale of contrasting temperatures and airmasses. The week ends with warm temperatures more than 10°F above normal. A cold front sweeps through and fall returns for the weekend itself, but another warm up takes place leading into Monday. Also, Daylight Saving Time ends at 2AM Sunday.

Rest of today – increasing clouds for the day. Warm with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Yesterday, a warm front pushed through, putting us in the warm sector associated with a low pressure now over northeastern Quebec.

Saturday – quite a different feel tomorrow once this cold front below moves through the area. Winds will become onshore from the east, bring much cooler air. High temperatures are expected to top out only in the upper-50s with sunny skies (around normal for this time of year).

Sunday – there’s a chance of showers overnight Saturday into Sunday associated with the next storm system to impact the area. An advancing warm front is expected to bring light, stratiform rain ahead of it. Temperatures will be warmer, in the mid-60s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – the familiar pattern of warm front followed by cold front continues Monday. We’ll again be in the warm sector with temperatures peaking at about 70°F. Rain should accompany the passage of this cold front.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 30, 2017

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Crisp fall weather is in place for the start of this work week on the heels of yesterday’s strong storm. Winds abate today but temperatures turn noticeably colder tomorrow. A gradual warming trend is anticipated later this week with highs pushing back towards 70°F.

Rest of today – as the low pressure responsible for yesterday’s storm continues to pull away from us to the north-northeast, the pressure gradient will relax and result in lower wind speeds. These winds will bring with them a much cooler Canadian airmass (via cold advection) and high temperatures should be in the mid-50s.

Map of analyzed values of cold advection (transfer of heat, or in this case, lack of heat). The blues and purples indicate areas of increasing intensity of cold advection, where temperatures are falling by as much as 2ºF an hour. The causative agent of the cold advection in the Northeast are the winds associated the departing storm.

Tuesday – sunny skies, a sparkling fall day with high temperatures in the mid-50s again.

Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

Thursday – a return to warmer temperatures in the mid-60s with us in the warm sector between a retreating warm and advancing cold front.