Tag Archives: new york city weekend weather

NYC Weekend Weather + Note on Harvey – Aug 25, 2017

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I’ve returned from Europe (missed the eclipse though!) to a very pleasant stretch of calm weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Surface high pressure to our northwest over Ontario will continue to bring us cool, dry Canadian air that evokes a more fall-like feel.

Rest of today – just about normal temperatures with highs around 80°F, skies have cleared up nicely and we should have spectacular weather for the start of the weekend.

Saturday – high pressure remains in control, and gives us another pristine day of slightly below normal temperatures in the upper-70s but lots of sun.

Sunday – basically a clone of Saturday, high temperatures in the upper-70s, lots of sun.

Monday – more of the same with temperatures again in the upper-70s, maybe a few more clouds, but who can complain especially when you consider the next section.

 

Hurricane Harvey a Major Threat to the Texas Coast

It’s worth mentioning here that we have a very dangerous situation developing on the Texas coast today and over the course of the next few days with Hurricane Harvey. If you have friends or family in this area, it’s not a bad idea just to try and check in with them.

GOES 16 visible satellite image of Harvey showing impressive size, distinctive eye, decent symmetrical outflow except on the side already beginning to interact with land.

Harvey originally formed over the eastern Caribbean, dissipated approaching the Yucatan, and then redeveloped as it emerged over the Bay of Campeche. Favorable conditions have allowed Harvey to strengthen quickly into a Category 2 storm, and it’s forecast to continue strengthening to Category 3 before landfall.

This would make it the first major hurricane to make landfall on the US mainland in nearly 12 years. The biggest concern with Harvey is that most forecast models have the storm stalling out after landfall, and possibly looping back out to the Gulf and making a second landfall mid-week next week in eastern Texas, still retaining tropical storm strength. Two areas of upper-level high pressure will essentially be trapping Harvey in place.

The slowing forward motion of the storm means that tropical storm and hurricane force winds will rage for many hours. The longer the winds churn up the waters of the gulf, the bigger the life-threatening storm surge along the coast. Peak storm surge of 6-12′ is forecast. That’s without waves on top. For reference, Sandy brought a peak storm surge of 14′ to The Battery. That’s well above the first, and well into the second story of most homes. On top of that, rainfall totals measuring 2-3′ are possible, which would cause widespread inland flooding.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 4, 2017

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A hot week transitions into a weekend that will see the end of the heat and humidity for at least half of next week and maybe longer. Rain and thunderstorms dot the forecast except appropriately Sunday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. The rain and thunderstorms this morning give way to a dry day otherwise.

Saturday – a warm front moves through overnight into the morning with a cold front following right on its heels. This will bring a period thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Marginally favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn a few strong storms. Clouds clear up in the afternoon and highs are expected to reach normal levels in the mid-80s.

Sunday – cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west and moves south sending cooler Canadian air around its periphery towards us. High temperatures will be comfortable around 80°F with lots of sun.

Monday – a weak disturbance brings rain and cooler temperatures, well below average only in the mid-upper 70s.

Trouble in the Tropics?

A vigorous tropical wave has spun up off the west African coast and Cabo Verde. Storms originating from this region have historically been some of the most powerful and damaging, but that’s if they can sustain the transit across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has this wave at a 50% of forming into a tropical depression or storm in 2 days, and 80% chance in 5 days. It’s worrying that it’s starting to get picked up on long-term GFS model runs taking a swipe at the US East Coast as a strong tropical cyclone, however, this far out, it’s difficult to say which one of many scenarios could play out. It does bear monitoring though.

GFS for Wednesday 8/16, with the tropical system in the picture right off the East Coast of the US.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2017

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After a couple days of average temperatures, this weekend sees a return to cool temperatures with a wet start to it all. Conditions improve Sunday, and high pressure builds but temperatures remain below normal until later next week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds as a coastal low begins to form off the Mid-Atlantic. Warm with high temperatures right around normal in the low-mid 80s. Rain should hold off until the overnight hours.

High resolution rapid refresh model runs don’t show significant rainfall until around 2AM EDT Saturday

Saturday – an unpleasant, raw, windy, rainy day more reminiscent of autumn or spring than late July. As the coastal low moves closer to us along a stalled frontal boundary, it will bring chances for moderate to heavy rain along with a stiff northeast wind around 25 mph. As a result, temperatures will be surpressed in the mid-70s. Rain chances taper off during the day as the low moves east.

Sunday – much nicer with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding to around 80°F. Still will have a cooling influence of the weakening northeast winds.

Monday – high pressure builds and yields another decent day with high temperatures around 80°F, possibly higher with more sun.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2017

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What a difference a day makes – we went from a high in the low-mid 90s yesterday to a high today 20ºF cooler. Anticipate multiple rounds of rain throughout Friday, but much improved conditions for the weekend itself. We get another shot at rain on Monday to start next week.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with an easterly wind and the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass following the passage of a cold front earlier, we will experience significantly below normal high temperatures only in the low-mid 70s. The cold front will stick around just south of us during this time, and multiple impulses of energy will ride along this front. This means chances for rain, outside of this morning, most likely again in the early evening hours.

Saturday – early morning fog clears out quickly and gives way to a partly to mostly sunny day with much warmer temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

Monday – a gradual warmup begins Monday with high temperatures into the upper-80s and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 7, 2017

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Soggy start to the weekend quickly improves. We should see a seasonable and fair weather weekend in the NYC area, although Saturday carries a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will be the better of the two days.

Rest of today – on the cool side with the clouds, highs in the low-80s. The flooding rains we’ve received this morning will subside quickly after lunch and we might even get a little sun later. Another afternoon spot shower or thunderstorm is also possible.

Saturday – a cold front moves through and provides the trigger for some showers or thunderstorms, but do not anticipate a washout like this morning. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high pressure building behind the cold front. Temperatures again in the low-80s.

Monday – should be another dry day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 2, 2017

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This weekend will feature mostly sunny skies, seasonable, and pleasant conditions until late in the day Sunday when our next chance for rain moves in. The low pressure causing this next round of rain looks to linger well into mid-week next week, which will bring on several days of cool, cloudy, and rainy weather to contrast with the beginning of the weekend.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with some slight chance for scattered thunderstorms, most likely appearing west of NYC. High temperatures ranging in the mid-upper 70s.

Saturday – mild, pleasant, mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. High pressure will be in control for a day.

Sunday – high pressure starts breaking down as the next storm system approaches. This storm system will be a complex and slow moving one. While the bulk of the moisture associated with this storm looks to stay offshore, we will still get multiple rounds of rain from it, beginning late Sunday. Temperatures will be a touch cooler in the low-70s with increasing clouds Sunday.

Monday – cloudy with temperatures in the low-70s, and periods of rain likely throughout the day. Kicks off a cooler and wetter than normal trend leading at least into mid-week.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 26, 2017

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After a soaking rain yesterday, we enter a holiday weekend with a mixed bag of weather. The first half of the weekend should turn out to be the better half in terms of conditions for outdoor activities. Temperatures during the period will be at or just below normal in the low-mid 70s.

Rest of today – heavy rains fell overnight into early this morning. Mostly sunny skies should give way later in the afternoon to a second round of more scattered showers. High temperatures in the mid-70s and maybe a touch higher depending how much sun we get.

Saturday – best day of the weekend as we get a respite from a near continuous chain of disturbances. Partly sunny with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Sunday – small chance for scattered showers, primarily early in the morning, mostly cloudy and cooler with temperatures in the upper-60s.

Monday (Memorial Day) – increased chance for showers and maybe even a couple thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy otherwise wirh high temperatures around 70F.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 19, 2017

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We’re well on pace to hit the low-90s again today, which would officially mark the first heat wave of 2017. The Bermuda high that led to these sultry conditions allowed us to heat up even more than official National Weather Service forecasts called for. Temperatures ranged 20ºF above normal in many places away from south facing shorelines. The weekend sees a drastic change in airmasses and a return to more seasonable conditions before the next chance for rain Monday.

Rest of today – hot, humid, high temperatures reaching the low-90s for most areas again except the south-facing shorelines of Long Island. Air quality has improved today so no alert is active. A cold front passes through the area later this evening, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday – the passage of the cold front late Friday sets the stage for a dramatic shift in airmasses. Behind the cold front, a high pressure center over Canada will bring much cooler air riding winds from the north and northeast. Temperatures Saturday are expected to cool off into the upper-60s, with much drier conditions and mostly sunny skies.

Sunday – another cool day with temperatures in the mid-60s and clouds building ahead of a warm front that will move through Monday.

Monday – a warm front, followed quickly by a cold front pushes through Monday. The result will be mostly cloudy skies and an extended period of showers through the day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the low-70s.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 4, 2017

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This weekend brings a drastic change in temperature from the last, with high temperatures fully 20°F cooler. Not only that, but a slow moving upper low pressure system will induce multiple rounds of rain resulting in an extended period of unsettled weather for the area. The most substantial rain occurs Friday. Temperatures remain 5-8°F below normal during this stretch which continues into next week.

Rest of today – enjoy the bright sun shine while it lasts. With high pressure still in control, expect mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the low-60s.

Friday – the same storm system that has been impacting the mid-Mississippi Valley with flooding rains starts to move into our region Friday. Steady rains and embedded thunderstorms throughout the day could bring a total of 1-2″ of rainfall totals. The band of heaviest rains appears likely to cross into the city around 11AM. Temperatures will be about the same as today, in the low-60s, under mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday – unfortunately, due to the slow moving nature of the low pressure system responsible for the rain Friday, there remains a lingering chance for rain Saturday, particular late in the day and into the evening. Temperatures remain cool in the low-60s.

Sunday – improving conditions, with rain chances finally diminishing. There could be some breaks for sun, with high temperatures hovering at just about 60°F.

 

Drought Almost Totally Gone, Cooler Temperatures Prevail

With all of the plentiful spring rains, only a very small slice of the Hudson Valley remains under abnormally dry conditions. Meanwhile, Climate Prediction Center points to cooler conditions continuing into the next 6-10 days.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 21, 2017

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A cool and dreary end of the week leads into a continued stretch of slightly below average temperatures for the weekend. Temperatures remain on the cool side with chances for rain to start next week before a warm up in the second half of next week. Far off in the Central Atlantic, a rare April tropical storm (Arlene) has formed.

Rest of today – rains moved through overnight and lingering showers this morning should end within the next couple hours. Cloudy with high temperatures only in the upper-50s to around 60°F.

Saturday – despite winds turning to the north with high pressure moving in from the west, temperatures should still rebound into the low-60s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday – mostly cloudy to overcast with temperatures hovering around 60°F.

Monday – the next chance for rain comes in along with a developing coastal low that lingers through Tuesday. Timing of this coastal storm remains somewhat uncertain, so it could end up being somewhat of a pest early next week.

 

Rare April Tropical Storm
We’re still 2 full months off from the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which makes the formation of the first named storm of the season even more of a meteorological oddity. Tropical Storm Arlene will spend its life churning up the waters of the Central Atlantic without any impacts on land. It’s still worth noting that this is only the second time since the dawn of the satellite era that a tropical storm has been detected in April.

TS Arlene is the tight circulation located at around 50° W, 40° N