Tag Archives: new york city weekend weather

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 25, 2019

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This weekend starts off with fair and dry weather. A storm developing along the Gulf Coast of Texas, tracking north along the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Great Lakes, then east towards our area will bring a prolonged period of steady rain on Sunday. As of 11AM today, National Hurricane Center has designated this storm as Tropical Depression Seventeen. This storm should pull out of the area before the start of next week. Temperatures during this period should be at or above average for this time of the year in the low-mid 60s.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a cold front weakening, then stalling and returning north as a warm front. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds briefly and should give us mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with increasing clouds and chances for rain.

Sunday – much like last weekend, a storm with tropical origins will bring rain and lots of moisture to the area. The extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Seventeen will track north towards the Great Lakes during this period. A warm front attached to it will bring a shield of steady stratiform rain over the area. Mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-60s as winds turn to the south. Steady rain continuing into the early overnight hours until the storm’s trailing cold front finally sweeps through and drier air works in. Lows in the mid-50s.

  • NAM model output for relative humidity and wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the nearly saturated nature of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
  • NAM model output for wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the high wind speeds at this level, indicating the presence of an 850 mb low-level jet (LLJ)
  • NAM model output for precipitable water at 2PM Sunday. Note the high values above 1.50″. This makes sense, given the tropical origins of the storm that will impact us Sunday.
  • Projected track of Tropical Depression Seventeen

Monday – high pressure and calmer conditions return with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 18, 2019

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Soaking rains from Wednesday’s nor’easter have long since exited east, yet we will continue to feel the impact of this low with windy conditions to start the weekend. As the low continues moving east, an area of high pressure will build in and take its place. Winds will relax and we should enjoy a nice, sunny day for Saturday. Clouds are expected to build back in as a potential extratropical remnant low of what could become Subtropical Storm Nestor this weekend pass south of the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be at or just below normal in the low-60s with a warm up going into next week.

Rest of today – windy conditions continue as the pressure gradient between a building area of high pressure to the west and the low that brought us rain Wednesday which is now over the Canadian Maritimes. High temperatures around 60°F with partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows expected to be quite cool, in the low-40s with skies looking to clear up and winds dying down – conditions that could lead to some strong radiational cooling.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in and gives us a sparkling, sunny, fall day with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows milder around 50°F.

Sunday – although the extratropical remnants of what could be Subtropical Storm Nestor are forecast to pass well south of the area, this storm is expected to have a broad cloud shield to its north, and some outlying rain bands could even result in a couple scattered rain showers for the area. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-60s, because even with clouds, overall flow will be from the south. Overnight lows around 50°F again.

  • GOES satellite imagery of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
  • National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast track guidance for this storm

Monday – with this low exiting east, we’ll see more southerly flow ahead of the next incoming storm system. High temperatures should respond by warmingin into the upper-60s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 11, 2019

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The persistent storm off the Northeast US coast finally starts to move east. This storm has defied the odds, increasing in organization and intensity overnight, and has just been named Subtropical Storm Melissa. We will enjoy a spell of warming temperatures (from the low-60s into the low-70s) and dry weather leading into early next week as the region sits between the exiting storm and another strong low over the interior of North America. A couple of frontal boundaries will pass over, however, these will be starved of meaningful moisture and should not result in any rain.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s as winds start to shift to the north due to Subtropical Storm Melissa continuing to move to the east.

Satellite imagery of the incipient Subtropical Storm Melissa

Saturday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures warming to around 70°F. Winds will diminish as Subtropical Storm Melissa finally starts moving east. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NAM model output for 500 mb heights and wind at 2PM Saturday. A significant closed upper-low, largely cut off from westerly steering currents, will be over the Upper Midwest. A slow-moving, strong occluded low will accompany this upper low at the surface. East of this, there will be some slight ridging, keeping our weather fair.

Sunday – a weakening cold front moves through, but with lack of appreciable moisture, there shouldn’t be any rain. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday, around 70°F, with m ore sunshine expected. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday (Columbus Day) – the cold front that moves through overnight into Sunday is expected to stall and become stationary. A surface low is forecast to form and move along this boundary near the coast, leading to increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight with lows dropping into the upper-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 4, 2019

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Strong high pressure and sunny weather will be the main theme this weekend. Despite the sun, we do have a chance to see the coldest overnight temperatures so far this season tonight into Saturday. High temperatures start to warm from the 60s to the low-70s by the second half of the weekend and to start next week as the high pressure progresses east and we get warmer southerly return flow before the next storm system approaches Monday.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Breezy with a refreshing northerly wind, 15-20 mph with higher gusts due to the relatively tight pressure gradient between the high pressure building moving in from the west and the low that brought us rain yesterday continuing to move offshore. Cold overnight, with lows in the upper-40s. Frost advisories and freeze warnings are up for many areas of upstate New York not too far from us.

850 mb winds as indicated by GFS model for 8AM today, indicating the presence of strong winds of 30-40 knots just above the surface.
As the day progresses, the near-surface layer up to 850 mb is forecast to become well-mixed, and this will allow the faster winds above to reach the surface.

Saturday – a sparkling, sunny fall day with high temperatures in the low-60s. Wins will calm also. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with increasing clouds.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – the cloud shield preceding an incoming storm system will continue moving in Sunday resulting in partly sunny skies. High temperatures will warm to around 70°F as winds turn to the south. This is due to the high pressure exiting east (clockwise flow around this) as well as winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Monday – mostly cloudy with chances for rain increasing later in the day. High temperatures in the mid-70s. Heavier rain accompanying the passage of a cold front overnight with lows dropping into the upper-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 27, 2019

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High pressure and fair weather will get punctuated with the passage of a cold front scheduled to push through overnight into Sunday. This front could touch off a few thunderstorms. Temperatures during this time will be slightly above average in the upper-70s. A cooler airmass should finally move in Monday with more easterly onshore flow.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – warmer, with high temperatures around 80°F and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight as a cold front pushes through

Sunday – sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Despite the cold front, we should see some warmth from downsloping northerly winds and subsidence in the wake of the frontal boundary causing compressional warming. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NAM model output for 2PM Monday, mean sea level pressure and 10 m above ground level winds. Note the easterly flow in NYC imparted by the high pressure to our east-northeast

Monday – another sunny day with cooler high temperatures in the low-70s, overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 20, 2019

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The story of the weekend will be a continued stretch of fair weather with high pressure remaining in control. The positioning and movement of the high pressure center will result in a gradual warming pattern as winds turn to the south with high temperatures returning to summer-like levels in the low-mid 80s by the end of the weekend. A cold front scheduled to move through beginning next week will bring cooler weather back but warmer temperatures could make another return later next week, despite the autumnal equinox taking place Monday and fall formally starting.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures around 80°F. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Monday – another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-80s, overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Climate Prediction Center short-range outlook for temperatures the second half of next week.

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 13, 2019

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Easterly onshore winds will keep things cool to start the weekend. Strong high pressure slowly gives way to a frontal system late tomorrow, bringing a chance for rain. Behind this system, high pressure should build in again and persist, giving us some nice weather Sunday into next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with strong high pressure north of the area. Cool with highs in the low-70s under the influence of easterly onshore winds. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – clouds build ahead of an advancing warm front and the day should end up being mostly cloudy. High temperatures a bit warmer in the mid-70s with winds shifting to the south ahead of the warm front. Rain chances increase towards the evening and overnight hours, with lows in the upper-60s.

Sunday – a trailing cold front will pass through and conditions should improve with rain ending early and gradual clearing. Highs in the low-80s, with some assist from downsloping winds from the west and northwest. Overnight lows in the nid-60s.

GFS model output for 2 meter above ground level temperature and 10 meter above ground winds at 2PM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures in the low-80s with mostly sunny skies as high pressure continues to build. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Sep 6, 2019

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Hurricane Dorian’s center passes well southeast of the city to start the weekend. Because of its large and expanding size, it will still influence our weather. Once Dorian passes, we’ll see improving conditions though cooler temperatures will be the rule with Canadian high pressure taking over.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with isolated showers, more likely during the late afternoon and evening hours. It’s difficult to say even now whether the outermost rain bands from Dorian actually manage to hit the city, and even if they do, it’s also unclear how intense they will be. High temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s with cool, northeasterly onshore flow due to the cyclonic circulation around Dorian. For more info, see this detailed forecast.

GOES satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian

Saturday – much improved conditions as drier air works in behind Dorian. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Sunday – a touch cooler though still mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s as winds turn more to the north and Canadian high pressure builds. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures continue a 5-6°F below average trend, with highs forecast to be in the low-70s and mostly sunny skies. It will definitely feel like fall. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather & Hurricane Dorian Update – Aug 30, 2019

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Labor Day weekend is shaping up to be a good one overall in terms of sensible weather. A dry cold front passage today sets the stage for high pressure to take control over the remainder of the weekend. The only wrinkle is a warm front forecast to pass Monday that could bring some rain. Looking ahead into next week, a warm up should precede another cold front mid-week. The big weather story this weekend will be much further south of us, as Hurricane Dorian takes aim at Florida as a dangerous Category 4 storm.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Saturday – high pressure starts to build from the west, which will result in a cooler weather with northerly winds. High temperatures topping out in the low-80s with lots of sun and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – high pressure will progress east, giving us another pleasant day with lots of sun and comfortable temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows warm up in the upper-60s with a warm front approaching from the southwest.

Monday (Labor Day) – chance for rain during the day as a warm front, then a weakening cold front approach. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Hurricane Dorian Heading Towards Florida

Over the course of the last few days, Hurricane Dorian made a pass over the Northern Lesser Antilles, hitting the Virgin Islands, and Martinique, but sparing Puerto Rico. This was a blessing for an island still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Maria. However, because Dorian avoided the disruptive influence of high terrain in Puerto Rico, it entered the open waters of the Western Atlantic north of the island ready for continued intensification. Unfortunately, various forecast models have been consistently depicting Dorian making landfall somewhere in Florida early next week as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane packing max sustained winds of 140 mph.

Latest GOES visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian

Overnight going into today, Dorian’s been steadily strengthening and is now showing a markedly more symmetrical structure than before, along with an eye developing in visible satellite imagery. This suggests that the southerly shear and dry air that was afflicting the storm yesterday has abated somewhat. At this point, there is nothing really stopping Dorian from continuing to strengthen to a major hurricane.

National Hurricane Center official forecast for Dorian as of 11AM Friday

Forecasters continue to have high confidence that Dorian will make a turn towards a more westerly direction as high pressure builds over Bermuda and keeps building to the west. This will block Dorian from taking a northerly route away from Florida. Worryingly, forecast models have trended towards a slower and more southerly track overnight, then a turn north after landfall. On this current track, a large part of Florida would be affected by the storm for a considerable amount of time, increasing the risk of damaging storm surge and inland flooding from prolonged heavy rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 23, 2019

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After a week of hot, humid weather and several bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms, we will finally get a break from both the heat and the rain just in time to enjoy the weekend. Behind a cold front that’s slowly pushing south, high pressure will build in and usher in a Canadian polar airmass that will bring a noticeable change to high temperatures – 10ºF cooler in most cases. Rain chances return late in the weekend period.

Rest of today – showers associated with a wave of low pressure moving along the cold front that passed last night should end by noon. Mostly cloudy with gradual clearing. High temperatures in the upper-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NAM (North American Model) forecast for 2 meter above ground level temperature Saturday at 2PM

Saturday – mostly sunny, high temperatures in the upper-70s, noticeably drier feel with dew points much lower than the past few days with Canadian high pressure taking over. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – below average temperatures continue with high temperatures in the mid-70s. By this time, the high pressure center will have shifted to the northeast and will thus enable cooler, more moist onshore flow to influence the weather. We should see more clouds and could even see some scattered rain showers. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures in the upper-70s with partly sunny or mostly cloudy skies. An area of low pressure (which could become a tropical depression this weekend) off of Florida will track along the East Coast and should at the very least bring cloudier weather. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.