Tag Archives: new york city weekend weather

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 27, 2018

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Thunderstorms roll through later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The cold front bringing these storms stalls out before finally pushing through Sunday. A welcome break from this muggy weather follows, with dew points finally dropping out of the upper-60s into more comfortable ranges. The break is short lived, as the cold front will return mid-week next week as a warm front, bringing another round of warm and humid weather with chances for rain.

Rest of today – hot and humid today with high temperatures approaching 90°F and plenty of moisture still lingering. Late in the day, clouds will increase as a cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough. Atmospheric dynamics favor some possibility for storms to develop damaging wind gusts. There will be modest instability with little convective inhibition by later in the day with plenty of solar heating and humidity in place. Wind shear, though weak in the lower layers of the atmosphere, increases substantially aloft, and so storms do have a chance to become strong. Any storm could bring about heavy rain and isolated minor flash flooding. The best timing of the onset of the rain appears to be between 7-9PM as of recent High Resolution Rapid Refresh model runs. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western part of the region (including parts of NYC) under a slight risk of severe weather. By the time the storms hit the city, given the current timing, they should be weakening due to day time heating ceasing.

Saturday – only slightly cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Still quite muggy. Spot showers are possible due to the cold front lingering in the area.

Sunday – finally, we get a refreshing day off from the humidity with dew points dropping into the low-60s and high temperatures in the mid-80s with lots of sun. The cold front finally pushes through with high pressure behind it bringing cooler, drier Canadian air our way.

Monday – should be another comfortable day with high temperatures in the mid-80s and relatively less humid conditions.

NYC Weekend Update – Jul 20, 2018

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Last weekend’s beautiful, sunny weather will be but a fleeting memory this weekend as a coastal storm hits the area late Saturday going into Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and even some severe weather are possible Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for isolated flash flooding. Unsettled weather continues into next week with a tropical weather pattern setting up providing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – a great start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies.

Saturday – cool, with high temperatures only in the upper-70s due to the influence of easterly winds ahead of a warm front attached to the advancing coastal storm. Clouds increasing late in the day and rain chances picking up in the evening hours going into overnight. Chance for heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds (even an isolated tornado possible). Gusty east winds will make the overnight hours feel particularly cool and miserable.

Sunday – rain chances continue into the day and even Sunday night. Temperatures increase behind the passage of the warm front mentioned above and winds shifting to the south – high temperatures should be in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. All told, we could be looking at widespread rainfall totals of 1-3″ across the area.

Monday – showers likely again as temperatures remain in the mid-80s under mostly cloudy skies. A strong upper-level trough will be wedged between two areas of high pressure. The one off to our east over the western North Atlantic will continue to strengthen over the course of the week, blocking the eastward advance of this upper trough. This effectively will result in an extended period of southerly flow, with moist, tropical air coming our way. Multiple impulses of energy are expected to travel along this strong upper-level trough. Each one will bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern does not appear to break until next weekend, although it’s not as though each day will be a washout either.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 13, 2018

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Friday the 13th might be bad luck but not in terms of the weather this weekend. High pressure will only be briefly interrupted by the passage of a weak cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Not much in the way of rain expected with this front. Looking ahead, next Tuesday holds the best chance for appreciable rain. Temperatures will be on the warm side until late next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny and warm with highs in the upper-80s.

Saturday – mostly sunny then increasing clouds late as a cold front approaches. Highs around 90°F.

Sunday – slight chance for thunderstorms early, then partly sunny, highs in the upper-80s.

Monday – mostly sunny, highs in the upper-80s again.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 29, 2018

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Just as we get ready for the week of Independence Day, the heat really gets turned on. We anticipate the first heatwave of the summer with temperatures in excess of 90°F expected for the next 5 days. This will be an exceptional weekend for a beach getaway!

Rest of today – sunny, and hot, with high temperatures generally a touch or two above 90°F.

Saturday – heat increasing, sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Humidity also builds.

Sunday – hottest day of the weekend as robust south-southwesterly flow around a high pressure center to our south pumps lots of hot, humid air our way. High temperatures in the upper-90s.

Monday – still no relief, with high temperatures in the mid-90s and sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 8, 2018

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We have a weekend of stunning late spring weather on tap, with temperatures above normal to start, then cooling off for the second half of the weekend. Little in the way of rain is possible this weekend, so this is an ideal weekend for all types of outdoor activity, including the upcoming Subway Series and Belmont Stakes!

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front means we will get a milder air mass from the southern US.

Saturday – another nice day with more clouds, but still pleasant warmth in the low-80s. A dry cold frontal passage will signal a shift to cooler conditions for the second half of the weekend.

Sunday – behind this cold front, Canadian high pressure will bring back the influence of a continental polar air mass. This will result in below average cooler temperatures in the low-70s, but with mostly sunny skies. The only blemish on this could be some lingering showers from the overnight passage of a shortwave along the cold front that will settle just south of the area.

Monday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-70s as we begin a week with a warming trend.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 1, 2018

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This weekend’s weather will feel gloomy and feature multiple chances for rain. The influence of the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will influence the air mass, making it feel very humid, and allowing for the potential for heavy rain. Going into next week, mixed signals from major forecast models hint at the possibility for a coastal storm.

Rest of today – an early round of rain and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a warm front should give way to a relatively rain-free day. Fog should begin to dissipate as the rain passes through. Temperatures will be mild, in the low-80s with overcast conditions, with a muggy feel due to the influence of a tropical air mass (thanks Alberto!). Late in the day and into the overnight hours, a cold front will approach that could spark a few more storms.

Saturday – the cold front that approaches from the northwest overnight will slow down as it nears us and stall out in our vicinity. An impulse of upper-level energy will move through and likely spawn a low pressure center in the area. This will lead to better chances for rain than today. Temperatures will be around 80°F again with overcast skies.

Sunday – this will be the best day of the weekend as Canadian high pressure attempts to build in. This should yield dry conditions, though there will probably still be plenty of clouds around. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs around 70°F in this Canadian air mass.

Monday – there are mixed signals in forecast models that suggest the possibility of a coastal storm developing early next week. At this point it appears we’ll have a wet start to the week with cool temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy skies, as well as more rain.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 25, 2018

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Memorial Day weekend in NYC kicks off with two incredible days of summer-like weather with excellent conditions for all outdoor activities, including hitting the beach. The weather shifts markedly for Sunday and Monday as a cooler air mass takes hold of the region behind a backdoor cold front. Temperature could be 15ºF-20ºF cooler between the first and second half of the weekend. Rain will accompany the passage of the backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. No day will be a washout though.

Rest of today – sunny with breezy southwesterly winds bringing in warm air. Temperatures should soar into the upper-80s with a few spots reaching the 90ºF mark outside of coastal areas where sea breezes should set up fairly quickly.

Saturday – warm again with high temperatures likely reaching to around 90ºF away from south-facing shores with the influence of sea breezes. Late in the day towards the evening hours, a backdoor cold front will be approaching from the north. Ahead of this frontal boundary, clouds will increase throughout the day, and some pop up showers and thunderstorms could occur. Sea breezes may help initiate some of these storms closer to the coast. Given that there will be some instability in the atmosphere, a couple of these storms could approach severe limits, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain.


Sunday – overnight from Saturday into Sunday is when the bulk of the rain associated with this cold front will fall. There could be a scattered thunderstorm overnight. Rain will impact the beginning of the day Sunday, but conditions should improve later in the afternoon. Behind the backdoor front, easterly onshore winds will predominate, leading to much cooler temperatures only in the low-70s under cloudy skies.

Monday (Memorial Day) – cool with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.

 

First Tropical Storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Although our weekend weather won’t be ideal, we are lucky not to have to plan for anything worse. Residents of the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida Panhandle will need to contend with the arrival of the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Alberto.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 18, 2018

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The gray, gloomy, and wet weather trend that’s been semi-persistent for much of the last week continues into the weekend. Unfortunately, rain chances will exist both Saturday and Sunday. Cool temperatures to start the weekend will give way to warmer air. Things finally dry out going into the start of next week.

Rest of today – cloudy and cool with temperatures in the mid-60s. Slight chance for showers, though a strong area of high pressure well to our north in Quebec should help hold the line against rain associated with a stationary front draped west-east across Virginia and the Delmarva. Rain chances increase later into the overnight hours as this area of high pressure starts to lift to the northeast.

Saturday – the aforementioned stationary front will start to lift north as a warm front during the day Saturday. Ahead of this warm front, elevated instability could spark a few thunderstorms late in the day with an assist from vorticity maxima moving through in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures will be cool, with clouds and rain showers throughout the day, maxing out in the low-60s. These temperatures will actually rise overnight once the warm front pushes through and allows for much warmer air to surge northward.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures around 80°F, mostly cloudy with chances for showers and a thunderstorm particularly in the afternoon with the passage of cold front.

Monday – weather finally begins to dry up behind this cold front. High pressure will build once again and should give us a nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 11, 2018

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This Mother’s Day weekend will unfortunately feature mostly unsettled and cool weather, though no day will be a complete washout. A frontal boundary will just linger in our vicinity during this period, moving north as a warm front, then retreating south as a cold front. This will allow multiple subtle upper level disturbances to move along this boundary, and each of these will bring a chance for rain.

Rest of today – splendid day with sunny skies and just about average high temperatures around 70ºF.

Saturday – chance for rain early between 7-11AM, then a period of mostly cloudy skies until another round of showers with some thunderstorms rolls through in the evening between 8-10PM. Cooler with high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – chance for showers in the morning, with steadier rain possible through early afternoon. Cool, with northeasterly onshore winds, and high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain chances should diminish later in the day.

Monday – drying out with temperatures in the low-70s and partly sunny skies.

Possible Tropical Storm Impacting the US During Memorial Day?

Consecutive runs of the GFS forecast model continue to suggest that a subtropical/tropical storm could develop in the western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua in the next 10 days or so. It’s far too early to be certain of this, but the trend is worth noting. Recent runs suggest that this storm could make landfall on Florida and then travel up the east coast.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 4, 2018

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After two days of record-breaking heat in the low-90s, a pattern change is on tap for the NYC metro area going into the weekend. Cooler conditions will prevail in the wake of the passage of a cold front, which could also bring rain and thunderstorms (possibly severe). Saturday should shape up nicely but rain chances return Sunday before a cooler start to the work week.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal-slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity today. We continue to be an increasingly moist warm sector east of an advancing low pressure center. As the cold front associated with this low pushes east, storms will initiate first along a pre-frontal trough during the day today (late morning-early afternoon), then again along the actual frontal boundary itself later this evening. It is the latter round of these storms that could push severe limits. There are limiting factors to this activity especially near the coast with more stable air present. Cloud cover will limit day time heating, reducing overall instability. And the earlier round of activity should serve to actually mitigate the later round of storms. Aside from the rain, it should be mostly cloudy with some breaks in the sun (that would increase chances for storms), with high temperatures in the mid-80s.


Saturday – cooler air moves in behind the cold front tonight while a weak area of high pressure builds. High temperatures should top out in the mid-70s with partly sunny conditions. Rain chances increase towards the overnight hours.

Sunday – cooler still with mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain. High temperatures only in the mid-60s as a weak disturbance passes to our south.

Monday – skies finally clear up with high temperatures moderating and warming into the upper-60s.