Tag Archives: new york city weekend wx

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 7, 2020

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We start this weekend with a high wind warning as a strong low pressure center passing overhead. A much colder air mass will be on the heels of this passing storm. A brief calm Saturday spell punctuates an otherwise active pattern with another storm approaching to start next week. High temperatures during this time will generally be at or above normal (~40°F) with a big warmup by Monday.

Rest of today – high temperatures have already peaked in the mid-50s but the remainder of the day will see a continuing fall in temperatures through the 40s and 30s as strong cold air advection kicks in. This is due to a potent low pressure system (972 mb and strengthening) passing overhead. The tight pressure gradient around this low, in addition to a well-mixed layer forming with winds aloft at 50 knots mixing down will yield very strong winds. A high wind warning is in effect this afternoon when sustained winds could easily be in the 30-40 mph range with gusts exceeding 60 mph in places. Winds will abate overnight as the low exits northeast, temperatures will keep falling all the way into the upper-20s with cold air advection driven by winds from the northwest continuing.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 1 PM today. Note the tight packing of isobars around the 972 mb low pressure center moving just north of the area.
  • NAM model’s forecast sounding for 1PM today. Very strong unidirectional wind profile is indicated, with winds just above the surface in excess of 50 knots. A well-mixed layer is evident as well up to about 850 mb where winds look to range between 55-65 knots. This should allow strong gusts and sustained winds to make it to the surface.

Saturday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should yield a mostly sunny day. With overnight lows in the upper-20s, high temperatures will be decidedly colder around 40°F. Overnight lows remain on the cold side around 30°F.

Sunday – clouds increase with high temperatures in low-40s as the next frontal system approaches. Winds will shift to the south. There is a chance for rain/snow mix then rain during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Monday – prolonged southerly flow will help kick temperatures up to the low-50s as the frontal system slows in its approach. This will also bring prolonged chances for rain. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 31, 2020

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Rain to start this weekend leads to a dramatic pattern change with anomalous ridging taking place by late in the forecast period. Temperatures throughout the period range from a few degrees above normal in the mid-40s to the mid-50s by Monday. The warmth continues into the middle of next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-40s. A relatively weak coastal low will develop and move towards our area overnight. The best chances for rain are in the early overnight hours. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Saturday – rain chances will diminish quite a bit as the core of the low continues exiting to the northeast. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Overnight lows in the the mid-30s. Some snow could mix in overnight as lingering chances for precipitation continue.

Sunday – things will dry out as the low continues to distance itself from us. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Monday – the synoptic scale pattern shifts as strong ridging at the mid-levels occurs. This will translate to warm high temperatures in the mid-50s on Monday with mostly sunny skies and southerly flow. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 16, 2020

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This weekend coming up will see a dramatic contrast from last weekend’s record-breaking warmth. Temperatures during the next few days will be average to below normal. Overnight lows in the low-20s for this period. A “warm up” will happen as we enter the warm sector of a passing storm Saturday going into Sunday, but reinforcing cold air arrives to start next week.

Rest of today – partly sunny with strong northwesterly winds. Temperatures will drop from around 50ºF into the low in the mid-20s overnight. A trough extending west from a departing area of low pressure that’s bringing the strong winds may touch off some rain.

Friday – a cold, sunny day with high temperatures starting off in the low-20s and only expected to reach 30ºF under the continuing influence of northwesterly winds .

Saturday – a large storm system will move through. Temperatures starting off in the low-20s will warm into the upper-30s with southerly flow ahead of the main cold front associated with this low. Thermal profiles will support snow to start, with a light accumulation possible before temperatures warm enough at the coast to transition to all rain overnight. Overnight lows aren’t expected to move much, dropping into the mid-30s.

  • GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for 7AM Monday
  • GFS model 300 mb heights and winds for 7AM Monday – the orientation of the jets stream mirrors the position of 500 mb height anomalies

Sunday – improving conditions with high temperatures in the upper-30s and partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows in the low-20s as a second and stronger blast of Arctic air flows in behind Saturday’s storm.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 10, 2020

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The weather story for this weekend in NYC will be the near record-breaking warmth we’ll have with temps at or above 60°F Saturday and Sunday. A storm system sweeps through overnight going into Sunday, and should clear by Sunday afternoon. Behind this, temperatures will drop back to the upper-40s, which is still almost 10ºF above normal for this time of the year! Enjoy this rare occurrence of near record warmth that isn’t accompanied by a washout.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-50s. A strong area of high pressure offshore southeast of our area will be steadily pumping warm, moist air into the region. Looking at the chart below, you’ll see southerly winds blowing at large angles across temperature contours that increase going south – this is an ideal set up for persistent warm air advection and will set the stage for the warmth we see this weekend. Overnight lows in the mid-40s. With moisture advecting into the area, we could see areas of fog develop overnight.

GFS 2-meter temperature with contours and 10-meter wind barbs.

Saturday – very mild with temperatures in the low-60s. Mostly cloudy with a southerly breeze and some fog possible. Overnight lows in the mid-50s. Rain chances increase particularly late overnight going into Sunday morning.

Sunday – elevated convection could bring a rumble of thunder Sunday morning, with rain chances peaking in the early morning hours. High temperatures should remain quite mild, in the mid-60s (and possibly higher with downsloping westerly winds for a period with clearing skies, following the passage of a prefrontal trough and before a cold front closes in). Overnight lows dropping into the low-40s – which is actually still above normal for what a daytime high temperature should be this time of year.

NAM high resolution model output of 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation valid for 5AM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures similar to Friday near 50ºF, partly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 3, 2020

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The first weekend in the new year starts off wet and mild with a complex storm system moving over the Eastern US. Things will settle down by Sunday with a cool down coming behind this storm system. Temperatures start to rebound early next week. In general, high temperatures will trend above normal for this time of year by 5°F, topping out in the mid-40s or higher.

Rest of today – periods of drizzle during the afternoon before a second round of steadier precipitation possibly later this evening. High temperatures in the low-50s with the warming influence of westerly flow ahead of the second frontal boundary shown below. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Saturday – rain chances continue during Saturday. Like Friday though, the best dynamics and moisture for heavy rain seem to bypass NYC itself. This may result in more periodic rainfall on the light side. Onshore flow from the northeast should continue to keep temperatures mild, around 50°F. Overnight lows will drop into the low-30s as the storm clears and winds turn to the north and northwest.

Sunday – a mostly sunny day expected with breezy northwesterly winds. High temperatures cooler, in the low-40s. Overnight lows remain in the low-30s.

Looking ahead into next week, the above normal temperature trend for much of the Eastern US appears to persist.

Monday – high temperatures in the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies and continuing windy conditions. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 20, 2019

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We’ll enjoy a prolonged period of calm weather that should take us through the week of Christmas. Temperatures should warm from below average in the 30s to above average near 50°F by the start of next week. The above average temperature trend looks like it will extend through the week. No white Christmas this year. I’ll be taking some time off and won’t have another update until closer to the new year unless something significant shapes up.

Rest of today – clear conditions with high temperatures already peaking around the low-30s. Overnight lows in the low-20s with an Arctic air mass still hanging around.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – the high pressure responsible for the cold, but calm and sunny conditions progresses east and return flow should start taking hold, with winds veering south later in the day. High temperatures should be similar to today in the low-30s. Overnight lows will be warmer than tonight in the upper-20s with milder westerly downsloping flow.

Sunday – high temperatures continue to climb into the mid-40s as more southwesterly flow takes hold. Overnight lows likewise continue a warming trend to about the freezing mark.

  • GFS model output for 500 mb vorticity, wind and heights valid 6AM Tuesday, showing a flat, zonal flow set up
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for December 25-29, calling for warmer than average temps over much of the Eastern US.

Monday – the warming continues with high temperatures forecast in the upper-40s to near 50°F. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Next week, it appears that we’ll be in a mostly zonal (flat westerly flow) regime at the upper-levels. That should help keep things calm and uneventful.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 13, 2019

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Mild temperatures in the mid-50s are on the way along with long duration drenching rains to start the weekend. Rain tapers off Saturday evening and conditions improve Sunday with a return to more seasonable temperatures in the 40s. A chance of wintry mix or snow is possible late Monday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with chances for rain increasing by the afternoon. Steady rain expected overnight. High temperatures around 50°F. Temperatures actually rise overnight with southeasterly onshore flow aiding warm advection.

  • NAM 2-meter temperature and 10-meter winds at 11PM Friday
  • NAM precipitable water for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – rain continues through the day Saturday with high temperatures peaking in the mid-50s as a warm front passes and persistent onshore flow from the southeast, backing briefly to the northeast then veering south continuously advects warmer air off the ocean to the area. Overnight lows are a different picture dropping into low-40s as winds turn to the west behind a cold front.

Sunday – as the parent low bringing this rain moves north of the area and continues gathering strength, winds will pick up from the west. This will bring cooler air to the area resulting in highs in the mid-40s under partly sunny skies. Overnight lows continue a cooling trend to about the freezing mark.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday

Monday – another storm system will impact the area starting late in the day. Temperatures will be cold, topping out in the mid-30s. Precipitation starting late on Monday should begin as snow or a wintry mix given the currently forecast temperature profile. As is the case going into Saturday, a change in wind direction accompanying a warm front should help temperatures actually rise overnight into the upper-30s, allowing precipitation to transition to rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 6, 2019

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An arctic front swings through today, bringing a blast of cold air behind it going into the weekend. Temperatures will rebound dramatically going into the start of next week with an approaching storm system turning winds to the south. We’ll see high temperatures going from the upper-30s to the mid-50s by Monday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high temperature in the upper-40s. Chance of rain this evening with the passage of an arctic front. Overnight lows cooling into the low-30s with clearing skies.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds behind the arctic front bringing sunny skies but a much colder polar airmass with high temperatures struggling to hit 40ºF. Overnight lows drop into the mid-20s.

Sunday – high pressure center moves off to the east, allowing for warmer return flow from the south. This should allow temperatures to be a touch warmer than Saturday, in the low-40s. Overnight lows are expected to bottom out around 40ºF before actually rising due to an incoming storm system turning winds to the south.

GFS model output for 1PM Monday, a low-level jet at 850 mb with winds in excess of 40 knots is evident, along with pretty high values of relative humidity.

Monday – high temperatures continue to climb into the mid-50s with deep layer south-southwesterly winds. Increasing chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west. Heavy rain is possible given a possible tropical moisture connection. Overnight lows barely moving into the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 15, 2019

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Seasonable temperatures to start the weekend won’t last as a cold front dives through and Canadian high pressure builds behind it Saturday. Cooler flow from the northeast will set up as the high sets up north of us and moves east. Winds will increase in intensity as an approaching coastal storm from the south leads to a tighter pressure gradient. This storm is currently tracking well offshore. However, we may still see some rain from the outer bands of the storm Monday. Aside from Saturday, temperatures will largely range 10-15°F lower than normal during this period.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 30°F with winds increasing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – with high pressure in control, we should see sunny conditions, but temperatures will be cooler with steady northeast winds of 20-25 mph. High temperatures around 40°F. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Sunday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-40s. Chances for rain possibly going overnight into Monday. Low temperatures in the upper-30s.

GFS model output for 7PM Monday, depicting a glancing blow from a coastal storm moving northeast well offshore of the area.

Monday – chances for showers with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Overnight lows around 40°F. Persistent northeast flow may lead to coastal flooding concerns.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 8, 2019

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Very cold temperatures kick off the weekend, followed by a return to milder temperatures. The reprieve is brief though, with the outlook for next week looking equally cold, especially on the heels of another storm system possibly impacting the region Monday night through Tuesday. Behind this, a reinforcing blast of cold air will reintroduce much below average temperatures to the region. High temperatures will start off ~15°F below normal for this time of year, the moderate to just a couple degrees below normal by Veterans Day.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, strong winds from the northwest ranging 25-35 mph with higher gusts. High temperatures only in the low-40s with this cold wind. Overnight lows may approach record lows, in the upper-20s. This will be aided by winds dying down and clearing skies as the high pressure center shown below continues to build and move closer to us. This should allow for potentially strong radiational cooling before dawn.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – very cold start to the day, temperatures will struggle to climb into the low-40s, close to the record coldest high temperatures for this time of year. The plus side will be calmer winds, eventually shifting to the southwest as the high pressure above moves off to the east. This should help “warm” things up a bit, with overnight lows recovering into the mid-30s.

Sunday – much warmer with high temperatures in the low-50s despite more cloud cover, both due the influence of southwesterly flow. Overnight lows warming into the mid-40s.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 7AM Saturday
  • Corresponding GFS 500 mb heights, vorticity. Troughing at the mid-levels here will allow for the continued influx of cold air into the Eastern US. Note how the western US, which is under a 500 mb ridge is expected to experience above normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Nov 13-17, showing a very high probability for continued colder than average conditions for much of the Eastern US.

Monday (Veterans Day) – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight, a system will approach from the west and could bring rain with lows bottoming out in the low-40s.