This weekend is shaping up to be similar to last weekend in some respects, with Saturday being a nearly ideal day with plenty of sun, while Sunday is cloudier with some chance for rain. The big difference is unlike last weekend, we’re not anticipating a coastal storm or record-breaking cold! In fact, we should see our first 80°F+ day in some time by Monday before a chance for showers and thunderstorms cools things off.
Rest of today – current visible satellite observations show clouds moving in from the west, so the sunny start to the day will give way to mostly cloudy conditions later. Temperatures will be mild with the influence of warm southwesterly winds, topping out in the mid-70s. Later in the evening, a cold front will push through, bringing a chance for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Overnight lows expected in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM today
Saturday – even though we’ll have a cold front push through, sinking air behind the cold front and downsloping winds from higher terrain in the north should keep things around average for this time of year in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows continue to be in the mid-50s.
NAM output for 500 mb height and vorticity, valid for 8AM Saturday. A noticeable reversal of the upper air pattern from earlier this week is visible with a deep longwave trough over the Western US, and ridging over the Eastern US. This will result in great weather for us tomorrow, while areas of the Plains downstream of the trough picture above see the potential for severe weather.
Sunday – warm front approaching from the south during the day Sunday will result in more clouds than sun, and perhaps a scattered rain shower. High temperatures still around average for this time of year in the low-70s. Overnight lows warm up into the low-60s as we enter the warm sector of the storm system approaching us from the west that’s expected to bring severe weather to parts of the Central US this weekend.
Monday – with the region forecast to be in the warm sector of the parent low shown below, and a prolonged period of southwesterly surface winds bringing warm air into the area, temperatures are expected to warm up into the low-80s. This day will have a summery feel, with some humidity to the air and a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Overnight lows should remain mild around 60°F.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Monday
Mother’s Day weekend here in NYC unfortunately looks to be quite rainy. We start off with the potential for rain later today. Saturday is shaping up to be the sole dry day with high pressure briefly building before giving way to a prolonged period of wet weather Sunday and Monday. So, if you’re making any outdoor plans for mom, consider bumping them up to Saturday!
Rest of today – cloudy, with temperatures around 70°F. We will sit in the warm sector of an elongated low centered over western Quebec as a warm front has already passed overhead. This will allow plenty of mild, moist air to stream northward with southerly winds ahead of the trailing a cold front associated with this low. This cold front will serve as the trigger for some showers and thunderstorms later this evening as it swings through. Overnight lows behind this cold front in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Friday
Saturday – high pressure briefly builds in during the day. This will give us the best weather of the weekend with mostly sunny conditions and seasonable high temperatures in the upper-60s. Ideal weather for any outdoor activities. This nice weather doesn’t last with clouds building into the overnight hours and low temperatures dipping to the low-50s
Sunday – another storm system approaches from the south. A warm front at the leading edge of this storm seems likely to stall out. This will bring a prolonged period of chances for showers, cloudy skies, and cooler temperatures with easterly onshore winds. High temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows quite cool in the upper-40s as rain chances continue.
GFS model output for 2PM Sunday
Monday – a coastal low forms along the frontal boundary mentioned above. At this time, it appears this coastal low tracks close enough to make Monday another rainy day with cool temperatures, highs in the mid-50s, 10-15°F below normal for this time of year. Overnight lows looking even colder than Sunday if prolonged rain and a northeasterly wind flow materializes with this coastal low, current forecasts pointing to the mid-40s.
The unsettled weather pattern this week continues into the weekend. Rain is possible tonight into Saturday, then again overnight Saturday into most of the day Sunday. Entering next week, it appears we get a break from rainy weather, but looking ahead, another period of prolonged chances for rain could occur mid-week next week. Temperatures will alternate between below normal and around average, depending on whether there is rain in the forecast.
Rest of today – cloudy, with temperatures in the upper-50s. A warm front lingers to our south slowly moving north. Eventually, a cold front will push through overnight into Saturday. This could bring a brief period of rain, and maybe a thunderstorm. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – rain chances should end by late morning. High temperatures should be able to reach around 70°F despite cloudy skies. Another storm system will move in overnight going into Sunday. Rain chances will ramp up steadily after midnight. Moderate to heavy rain is possible. Temperatures overnight in the mid-50s.
North American Model (NAM) high resolution simulated radar for 11AM Sunday
Sunday – washout of a day as low pressure moves though. Plenty of moisture available for this system and that could lead to some heavier precipitation. Poor conditions for the Five Borough Bike Tour, with highs around 60°F, as a cool onshore easterly wind accompanies this storm. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Monday – nice rebound day with high temperatures reaching to around 70°F. Finally should see some sun with high pressure briefly building in the wake of Sunday’s storm and before the next frontal boundary to impact the area. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
A wet start to the weekend this Friday with multiple rounds of rain moving through. Saturday shapes up to be a better day at least in terms of being dry. A second disturbance/low moves through Sunday bringing yet more chances for rain before skies clear up to start next week. Temperatures behind this second storm/cold front will be below normal for this time of year.
Rest of today – periods of rain during the afternoon as a warm front works its way across the area. Some thunderstorms possible. Second round of more focused/heavier rain later in the evening around 7-8PM as a trailing cold front pushes through. This front will have decent upper level support with some indications of a vorticity maxima at 500 mb and us being in the exit region of a 300 mb jet streak. High temperatures today topping out around the upper-50s even with the rain as we’re expected some time in the warm sector of the low bringing us this stormy weather. If the warm front below fails to push north through here though, we may only see temps in the mid-50s. Overnight lows should bottom out around 50°F.
Weather Prediction Center’s most recent surface analysis, showing a marked warm front south of NYC. Some thunderstorms and showers have popped up ahead of this frontal boundary due to isentropic lift (overrunning) as warm air from the south slides over colder air at the surface further nortHigh resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 8PM tonight showing a line of showers with some thunderstorms possible.
Saturday – with the trailing cold front clearing the area tonight, precipitation should end and Saturday should end up being a decent day though with more clouds than sun. High temperatures should be able to get into the low-60s, edging into the mid-60s if more sun breaks out. Overnight lows noticeably cooler with a colder, drier airmass behind today’s cold front, in the mid-40s.
Sunday – a second low approaches from the Ohio Valley, again bringing some potential for rain. This rain is expected to be on the lighter side. Temperatures should reach into the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Monnday – start of next week should be sunny, with Sunday’s storm system moving offshore. High temperatures will be below normal though, with the cold front associated with Sunday’s low bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. High temperatures probably topping out in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
A slow-moving storm system will impact the area with potentially heavy rain that could trigger flash flooding overnight into the first part of Saturday. Precipitation chances die down significantly with the passage of this round of rain as a dry slot works into the area. However, lingering chances for showers still exist as this storm makes a slow exit to the east. Temperatures during this period are forecast to be at or above normal.
Rest of today – cloudy, but still warm with temperatures rising to about 70°F. We will be in the warm sector with the influence of southerly winds during the day. Rain chances increasing during the evening hours. Steady rain is forecast late into the overnight hours with temperatures. Some of the rain could be heavy. Thunderstorms are also possible, and these would increase the risk of flash flooding. Overnight lows around 60°F.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – the north-south orientation of the cold front that will provide lift for these storms overnight will align well with the prevailing southerly flow through most of the atmosphere. The slow eastward progression of this front will allow storm cells to train leading to more flooding potential as rain continues Saturday morning. The cold front associated with this slow-moving low should push through by the afternoon. A dry slot should cut off any precipitation for a while during this time frame. High temperatures should be in the low-60s. Overnight lows should fall into the low-50s behind the cold front.
GFS model output of 850 mb winds and relative humidity for 2PM Saturday, notice the pronounced area of browns, indicating very dry air. This is what is referred to as a “dry slot“, which can often follow on the heels of cold fronts associated with mature mid-latitude cyclones.
Sunday – the upper low associated with this storm system is expected to cutoff (become detached from primary westerly steering currents), resulting in a system that will meander and take a long while to exit the region. As such, Sunday is expected to remain cloudy, with a chance for some showers. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-60s. Overnight lows will again be around the low-50s.
Monday – temperatures warming up into the upper-60s, but yes, that cutoff low still lingers! Chance for showers continues in the morning. Clouds finally decreasing later and overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Two distinct storms will affect weather in the area this weekend going into next week. The first is the remnant of the once mighty “bomb” cyclone that brought an abrupt return of winter conditions to the northern Plains states and Upper Midwest. The second will be a storm developing over Texas that could be a severe weather threat down South. Neither should result in a washout as the bulk of precipitation associated with these storms is timed to fall later in the day or overnight. Temperatures will be largely above normal during this period.
Rest of today – cloudy with chance of drizzle early. High temperatures around 60°F. Overnight lows in the mid-50s. Winds are forecast to turn to the south ahead of an anticipated cold front and in the wake of a warm front passing. Rain should accompany this frontal passage overnight.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Saturday
Saturday – warm day in store with highs reaching into the low-70s despite mostly cloudy skies as the cold front passing overnight is forecast to stall and become stationary during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s again.
Sunday – shower chances increase as the next storm approaches. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low-60s due to clouds and rain. A second, more vigorous cold front is forecast to pass overnight into Monday. Rain, heavy at times, possibly with thunderstorms as overnight lows fall into the mid-50s.
GFS model output for 8PM Sunday
Monday – rain associated with this second storm should clear out around lunchtime. Cloudy day forecast now, but could see more breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures in the upper-60s.
A cool start to the weekend should give way to a nice couple of days before another storm moves in to start next week. During this period, high temperatures will start well below normal, then rise above average before finally settling around average. Looking ahead, another storm system appears to impact the area late next week, bringing a colder weekend next week in its wake.
Rest of today – cool, cloudy with high temperatures only in the mid-40s. Increasing rain chances towards the evening and overnight hours. Rain should taper off overnight then we should see overnight lows stabilize in the low-40s as warm advection takes hold.
Saturday – clouds diminishing as the low responsible for the rain moves over the Atlantic to our south. High temperatures in the mid-60s, maybe a touch warmer if we see clouds break earlier than forecast. Overnight lows milder in the upper-40s.
Weather Prediction surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – high pressure stays in control and gives us a pleasant, mild day with high temperatures in the low-60s. The high pressure and nice weather doesn’t stick around long though, with another storm system approaching during the overnight hours going into Monday. Overnight lows should hold around 50ºF as rain starts to fall.
Monday – despite clouds and rain sticking around, temperatures will surge to about 70°F with a warm front forecast to pass through.
We will have a warm though not too sunny start to the weekend. A solid chance for rain hits Sunday with the passage of a cold front. After that, temperatures will drop to below normal levels again. Looking ahead into next week, there should be a dry start to the week but a coastal storm may impact the area mid-week. There’s some outside chances for snow with this storm.
Rest of today – cloudy, with some chance of light rain though most rain should remain over interior. With southwesterly flow, despite clouds we should still reach into the upper-50s to 60°F. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to stall out and acquire semi-stationary characteristics. Thanks to the continued influence of high pressure off to our east, we should stay mostly dry today. Overnight lows should be warm, near 50ºF.
Saturday – the warmth continues, with high temperatures forecast to reach well into the upper-60s though clouds will still linger around with the stationary front to our west. Overnight lows will be similar to tonight around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – the stalled frontal boundary finally picks up forward momentum and pushes through the area as a cold front. Ahead of it, temperatures will still be mild in the mid-50s. A line of showers is expected with this front during the day. Overnight lows behind this cold front will be considerably colder, in the low-30s.
Monday – dry, sunny weather, but with a chilly start to the day, temperatures are expected to only be in the upper-40s to near 50ºF, slightly below normal. Overnight lows are expected in the mid-30s.
The dusting of snow we got last night into today is just a small preview of what lies ahead this weekend. A major storm, that first brought heavy rain to the west coast, has been tracking across the nation and will impact the region late Saturday through Sunday with potentially a mixed bag of everything from snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, urban street flooding, coastal flooding, and strong winds that could result in power outages and tree damage (esp. if ice accumulates). Behind this storm, the coldest air of the new year surges in, bringing a bitterly cold start to next week. I’ll post an in-depth forecast of the incoming winter storm tomorrow.
Rest of today – the veritable calm before the storm. High pressure briefly establishes itself behind the weaker disturbance that brought us light snow overnight. Skies slowly becoming partly cloudy. High temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows colder around 30°F.
Saturday – should start off as a decent day with partly cloudy skies. Cloud cover increases through the day, and snow starts to spread from southwest to northeast during the late afternoon hours. High temperatures in the mid-30s. Overnight lows right around freezing will critically impact how much snow accumulation we get before what is widely expected to be a transition over to wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, then finally bouts of heavy rain leading into Sunday. If a warmer scenario plays out, we’ll get less snow and ice, and more rain. Various forecast sources call for between 1-4″ of snow and sleet accumulations, with up to as much as 0.10″ of ice.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday. A real mixed bag of various precipitation types all along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Sunday – high temperatures will continue to play a pivotal role Sunday in determining precipitation type. Some forecast sources suggest colder high temperatures in the mid-30s, while others remain warmer, in the upper-30s to even 40°F. There is broad agreement that the day starts off with plain rain but then transitions back to wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and finally snow. The differences in high temperature will be pivotal to the timing of this transition, with a warmer scenario keeping things all rain longer. As the center of the low responsible for the storm moves off to the north and east, it will continue intensifying and the pressure gradient around it will increase quite dramatically. Robust northwest winds are expected to develop, rapidly advecting cold, Arctic air into the area. The intensity of this cold advection will govern how quickly temperatures start to plummet during the second half of Sunday. It would appear that temperatures will be well below freezing by the late afternoon hours. This prompts concerns for a flash freeze of any standing water or untreated surfaces, leading to dangerous travel conditions. Temperatures will continue dropping overnight Sunday, with overnight lows going into Monday only around 10°F. Overall, this forecast shapes up to be a slushy mess, with a layer of snow coated by ice and sleet, melted by rain, but then re-frozen with an additional light layer of sleet and ice before all is said and done.
Weather Prediction Center’s plot of ensemble forecast low tracks/positions. Note that there’s still decent uncertainty even at this stage approaching the storm. The pink cluster denotes storm center positions by 7AM Sunday. Though they seem closely clustered, even a shift of the storm track 25-50 miles north or south could result in big differences in terms of whether locations at the coast receive more snow and frozen precipitation (southerly track) versus more of a rain event (northerly track).
Monday (MLK Day) – if you have the day off, count yourself lucky, because this is shaping up to be a brutally cold day where temperatures topping out in the upper-teens despite ample sun. Continued windy conditions will produce wind chill values below zero. The bitter cold continues into Tuesday morning with overnight lows again in the low-teens.
We’ll have a cold weekend ahead, however, we will dodge a bullet with a major winter storm tracking to our south. The northern fringes of this system could still bring some light snow to the city, though. The cold temperatures stay in place through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, we should see a pattern change that leads to some warmer temperatures by mid-week next week
Rest of today – mostly sunny, cold, with high temperatures hovering around 30°F. Gusty northwest winds steadily subsiding as a strong Arctic high pressure center moves closer to us. Clear, crisp night with overnight lows around 20°F.
Saturday – partly sunny, high temperatures topping out around the freezing mark. Snow flurries are possible overnight into Sunday. Overnight lows in the mid-20s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Saturday at 7AM. Note the strong Arctic high pressure to our north, 1040 mb, which will effectively block the winter storm to the south from heavily impacting this region.
Sunday – partly sunny with clouds possibly breaking from north to south later in the day. Some flurries still possible early in the day. High temperatures similar to Saturday around freezing. Overnight lows in the low-20s.
Monday – mostly sunny, with high pressure building again, temperatures still cold in the mid-30s.
