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NYC Weather – Independence Day – Jun 30, 2014

NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Lots to talk about on the last day of June, which brings with it the opening of a warm trend and possible mini heat wave. A stubborn low pressure system over the Plains States is pushing warm and humid air from the Gulf ahead of a leading cold front. As a result, Tuesday will feature warm, muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s, maybe even touching 90.

Wednesday, that frontal boundary comes closer, and with the heat and humidity in place, we’ll have the right conditions for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms later in the day. However, coverage is expected to be widely scattered. Highs again will be in the upper 80s, possibly hitting 90.

Thursday -as the cold front makes its approach in earnest, a pre-frontal trough is forecast to develop, and this should help spark off more widespread showers and thunderstorms than on Wednesday. Expect high temperatures to be somewhat lower due to cloudy skies, but still warm and humid in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday (Independence Day) – A lot of weather forecasters were saying earlier this weekend that July 4th was going to be a nice day with no rain. Sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case now, as the timing of that pesky cold front has slowed down somewhat. This does mean you could see rain and or thunderstorms during the day Friday and into Friday night, but at least the heat will break somewhat with temperatures only around 80.

Cold front right on top of us Friday could rain on your July 4th plans.
Cold front right on top of us Friday could rain on your July 4th plans.

First Named Tropical System of the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Over the weekend, a disturbance off the east coast of Florida began to show signs of increasing organization, to the point that the National Hurricane Center now gives the system an 80% chance of forming into a tropical depression in the next 2 days. If it does, then it will become the first named tropical system of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

High resolution satellite image of the incipient tropical system off the east coast of Florida
High resolution satellite image of the incipient tropical system off the east coast of Florida

Why does this matter to us? Well, as it currently stands, it appears this tropical system/possible storm may impact our weekend weather here in the Northeast. Some forecast models have this storm moving to the near offshore waters of the Northeast by Saturday (indicated in pink circle below). This could bring the potential for rain to parts of the Northeast, in particular, New England. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this storm will strengthen much (below you see the lowest pressure at the center of 1012mb, for reference, normal pressure at sea level is 1013mb), and in fact, it will likely make a transition to becoming an extratropical cyclone/storm rather quickly after it moves north of Florida. Still, it’s a bit too early to tell just where this storm will go, so it bears monitoring.

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Possible storm tracks as illustrated by GFS ensemble members
Possible storm tracks as illustrated by several different forecast models

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook – Jun 2, 2014

Climate, Outside of NYC, Tropical/Hurricanes, , , , , , , ,

Yesterday marked the official start to the 2014  Atlantic Hurricane season (June 1 – November 30), so this is as good a day as any to talk about the forecast for this season. The graphic below shows the National Hurricane Center’s official 2014 Hurricane Season Outlook that was released last month. This forecast is probabilistic, i.e. it gives a range of numbers and chances that this season will either exceed or fall below the forecast total.

National Weather Service National Hurricane Center's forecast summary for 2014
National Weather Service National Hurricane Center’s forecast summary for 2014

Explanation

In the NHC’s parlance, Named Storms refers to tropical or subtropical storms that produce sustained winds in excess of 39mph (this is the criteria for a tropical or subtropical storm) at any point in their life cycle. Hurricanes refer to the named storms that end up producing sustained winds in excess of 74mph, and Major Hurricanes refer to hurricanes that make it to Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson classification scale. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a rough measure for the overall intensity of a tropical cyclone and is calculated as follows:

The ACE of a season is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated maximum sustained velocity of every active tropical storm (wind speed 35 knots (65 km/h) or higher), at six-hour intervals. Since the calculation is sensitive to the starting point of the six-hour intervals, the convention is to use 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. If any storms of a season happen to cross years, the storm’s ACE counts for the previous year.[2] The numbers are usually divided by 10,000 to make them more manageable. The unit of ACE is 104kn2, and for use as an index the unit is assumed. Thus:

\text{ACE} = 10^{-4} \sum v_\max^2

where vmax is estimated sustained wind speed in knots. (Source – Wikipedia)

Hence, a high ACE number corresponds to a very intense storm or storm(s).

Outlook

As you can see from the above image, the NHC is calling for a normal to slightly below normal season for the Atlantic with 8-13 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. Despite the fact that the forecast calls for a normal to below normal season, it only takes one landfalling hurricane or major hurricane to inflict serious damage to a coastal area. Even with just tropical storms, huge amounts of rain can fall leading to major flooding.

El Niño’s Impact

One of the reasons why the forecast is calling for a normal to below normal season is that it appears an El Niño event is initiating and forecast to increase in intensity. El Niño refers to a phenomenon that occurs when the ocean surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean becomes abnormally warm (La Niña refers to the opposite effect, when the Eastern Pacific cools abnormally).

This anomalous warming of the Eastern Pacific leads to all sorts of global climate impacts. Among these is a noticeable decrease in the incidence of Atlantic hurricanes, and an increase in the number of Eastern Pacific hurricanes. In fact, you can see in the same outlook, NHC is calling for a near normal to above normal hurricane season for both the Eastern and Central Pacific. The reason behind this is simple: hurricanes feed on heat to grow, so the warmer the water below a storm, the greater the potential for that storm to grow.

Map of sea surface temperature anomalies as of 6/2/2014
Map of sea surface temperature anomalies as of 6/2/2014

As you can see from the map above, there is a region of abnormally warm sea surface temperatures extending west into the Eastern Pacific from the coast of Ecuador and Peru (yellow & orange). At the same time, there is a large area of much cooler than normal sea surface temperatures extending from the west coast of Africa into the Central Atlantic (light and dark blue). Incidentally, these cool temperatures off the coast of Africa are in a region that is notable for spawning some of the strongest hurricanes, the Cape Verde type hurricane. Clearly, if this temperature anomaly keeps up, it will serve to inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes in that region.