A warm and humid day out there in the Tri-State this afternoon. You can feel it’s potential thunderstorm weather. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion (analysis of weather conditions conducive to severe weather on a medium scale – 10km-500km). Very moist air, warm temperatures, combined with a slowly approaching cold front set the stage this afternoon for possible development of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. This is especially the case over inland areas, as depicted below. In general, expect a line of showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms to pass through the area later this evening into the overnight areas when the cold front finally pushes through.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html
Thursday – there could be some lingering showers in the AM, but things will dry out quickly and clouds will slowly give way to sunnier skies. High temperatures will be a bit cooler than today, in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Friday – a splendid end to the work week with mostly sunny skies and comfortable, less humid conditions and temperatures in the low 80s.
Canadian high pressure will move slowly to our east, ushering in some warm air and calm skies
Saturday and Sunday will both again feature excellent weather as a high pressure system works its way over our region following this cold front. As the high pressure slowly slides to the southeast, it will bring us southerly winds that will usher in another period of warm and humid weather. Saturday will be the better day of the weekend with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and lower humidity. By Sunday, temperatures will begin ramping up into the mid-80s with an increase in humidity. Early next week, we’ll be looking at a continuing warming trend with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s Monday and near 90 Tuesday before our next chance of rain.
When air flows are blocked by obstructions, such as buildings, trees, mountain ranges, or in this case, a mountainous island, all sorts of interesting effects can occur. Just as flowing water hitting a rock will form swirling eddies, flowing air has the same tendency, which you can plainly see int he image above. We’re usually not able to see these effects so vividly, though you’ll often feel them in the form of turbulence.
One of the lead forecasters at WPC was taking a look at the visible satellite imagery in the Pacific near the Baja California Peninsula and noticed some swirly action. If you take a look, there’s several swirls being caused by a volcanic island called Isla de Guadalupe. There’s also one right next to the coastline. How many can you count!?
We have satellite and radar imagery on our webpage alongside the surface analysis–if you want to take a look, visit our website (www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov) and take a look under the current weather!
What fantastic weather for the Memorial Day weekend! We topped off in the mid-80s across the area yesterday, and we’re likely to see another day with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s across the region (esp in interior portions of New Jersey).
Sadly, our stretch of summer-like temperatures is about to come to an end as a backdoor cold front (a front that does not approach from the west like most fronts do over this area) approaches the area from the north. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures are in the mid-80s and there is robust moisture in the atmosphere. This will provide the right ingredients for the possibility of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.
Possibility of Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon
Current thinking is that these storms approach the NYC metro around 4-7PM during the evening rush hour. The Storm Prediction Center has placed NYC, western Long Island, Northern New Jersey, and much of the Hudson Valley under a slight risk area for severe weather this afternoon. By the way, slight risk in this context does not indicate that storms which occur will not be that severe, rather, it is denoting that the probability for severe storms is on the low side, and that coverage is not expected to be widespread. Just so you all are clear, the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as producing one or more of the following:
Wind gusts greater than 58mph
Hail greater than 3/4″ in diameter
A funnel cloud or tornado
A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch means that conditions are favorable over an area for the development of these types of weather hazards, however, no immediate threat has yet been identified. A warning means that a severe thunderstorm or tornado is imminent or already ongoing, which is understandably a much more dangerous situation. Anyway, the most likely threat for our immediate area are damaging wind gusts and hail, although a few isolated tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out.
Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook – we are in the slight risk area highlighted in yellow
Wednesday – by tomorrow, the cold front responsible for the possible thunderstorms later today will have moved through our area, however, there is still a chance for lingering showers on the backside of this frontal boundary. Also, since this is a backdoor cold front, temperatures will be significantly cooler tomorrow than today with an onshore easterly wind keeping high temperatures only in the mid 60s (about 20 degrees cooler than today).
Thursday – an area of high pressure will build into the area, but due to its position to our northeast, it will also continue to usher in onshore easterly/northeasterly winds that will keep our high temperatures below normal in the upper 60s. Otherwise, it will be a nice, sunny day.
Friday – another cold front will approach the region from the west and bring in the possibility for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Slightly warmer with cloudy conditions and a high temperature near 70.
Saturday – high pressure will once again build in across the region and remain in place through the weekend. Therefore, am expecting pleasant, sunny conditions with about average temperatures in the mid-70s.
About that meteor shower… so as it turned out, the Camelopardalis meteor showers were a dud. Astronomers may have miscalculated the timing and/or amount of debris accumulated. Hey, it was the first time this particular shower was supposed to go down, so I guess you can’t blame them for not getting it right.
