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NYC Weather Update – Jul 8, 2014

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We had a nice couple days of seasonable, dry, and sunny weather this past weekend in the wake of Hurricane Arthur’s passage, but that came to an end yesterday and today. The high pressure that gave us the nice conditions moved to the southeast and out over the open waters of the Atlantic, merging with the semi-stationary Bermuda high. As you may know, this set up favors hot, humid temperatures all along the east coast, and we are no exception. Expect high temperatures to top out in the low-mid 90s today, with uncomfortably high humidity.

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Wednesday – we may get some relief from the heat later today and overnight with a pre-frontal trough and scattered diurnal thunderstorms forming in the hot, unstable air. However, tomorrow will be more or less a repeat of today, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and muggy conditions.

Thursday – The cold front above won’t actually reach us until late in the day Wednesday, but when it does hit us Thursday, it will bring some chance for scattered thunderstorms and a slight drop in temperatures back down into the mid 80s.

Friday – amazingly, our streak of great weekend weather (with the exception of Arthur) is set to continue. Once the cold front clears us Thursday, we’ll see high pressure build in from the west Friday, which means some cooler winds and lower humidity airmass from Canada moving in. Temperatures should be milder, in the low-mid 80s Friday through the weekend.

Our next shot at precipitation will be late Sunday into the beginning of next week.

Weekend Weather, Hurricane Arthur Update – Jul 4, 2014 @ 10AM EDT

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As of 9AM EDT, Hurricane Arthur has weakened somewhat from its peak intensity as a Category 2, and sustained winds have declined to 90mph. However, its eye is still clearly visible, and as you can see below, the storm is maintaining a symmetrical appearance with good outflow in all quadrants, meaning this is still quite a powerful storm. As Arthur continues moving northeast, it is expected to weaken rapidly upon entering much cooler waters and with increasing vertical shear from the codl front seen below.
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Track Forecast

Forecast models are in very close agreement about Arthur’s track over the next 12 hours or so. As you see below, they are tightly clustered around the 40N, 70W benchmark. Hence, forecast reasoning has not changed much since yesterday night. Arthur is expected to continue its northeast track and speed up under the influence of the cold front depicted above, moving offshore of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes as it makes extratropical transition.

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What This Means for Us

As expected, Arthur will be bringing multiple rounds of rain to the entire Northeast over the course of the day today. You can already see Arthur’s outer rain bands on our regional radar (you’d see it in the standard 124 nautical mile radar, but I’ve inserted an image of 248 nautical mile range radar image to see the storm better). As Arthur accelerates and makes its closest pass to this part of the country, we’ll see repeated bands of rain moving on shore. You can expect periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, interspersed with some dry spells under cloudy skies.

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The Rest of the Weekend

Once Arthur and the cold front clear the Northeast, we will see a return to a spectacular weekend with high pressure building back in. Sunny skies, mild, and dry conditions will prevail across the entire region with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s on both Saturday and Sunday. As the high pressure moves to our southeast, we’ll see a return flow from the backside of the high pressure ushering in another warm, humid airmass for the beginning of next week.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Hurricane Arthur – Jul 3, 2014

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Lots going on in the realm of weather over the coming weekend. First, to start off with today, the Storm Prediction Center has again placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. We could see a repeat of the type of storms from last night as a cold front makes its approach from the west. Even though temperatures are lower today and sunlight limited, there’s still more than enough instability in the atmosphere to fuel a few strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Because we’re looking at another round of possibly torrential rain from today’s storms, many areas are under a flash flood watch. Part of this moisture is due to the influence of Hurricane Arthur to our south.Untitled3

Hurricane Arthur

As of this morning, Arthur strengthened into the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s first hurricane and is currently sitting offshore of South Carolina with sustained winds of about 90mph. Forecasters are increasingly confident that Arthur will have enough time over warm water and low wind shear areas to grow into a Category 2 storm before getting recurved out to sea and making extratropical transition.

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Track Forecast for Hurricane Arthur

Arthur is now forecast to brush by the Outer Banks of North Carolina sometime later today, and move to just about the 40N, 70W benchmark offshore of the Northeast by 8PM Friday. Given this current forecast track, confidence is increasing that we’ll continue to see heavy rain and showers through out Friday into Friday night, though not directly from Arthur itself. Rather, Arthur will be interacting with that cold front mentioned above to throw a wrench in everyone’s July 4th plans. Conditions should begin to improve rapidly Saturday as Arthur accelerates northeast, pushed by the cold front. We should see a return to sunny skies and seasonable weather Saturday with highs around the low 80s. Of particular concern are areas in Southeastern New England, which could see tropical storm conditions on Friday night into Saturday morning. Any deviation westward of this current forecast track would mean increased impacts on the Northeast, so this storm is worth watching closely. Regardless, high surface and dangerous riptides will be present on all Atlantic shorelines.

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Tropical Storm Arthur Update – Jul 2, 2014 @ 18:00 EDT

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Current satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Arthur shows a storm that is increasingly organized, with well established outflow in all quadrants, a symmetrical appearance, and spiral bands around the whole storm. An eye feature continues to grow more clear. The National Hurricane Center current analysis of Arthur indicates a storm with sustained winds of 70mph, just below the 75mph criteria for a Category 1 hurricane.

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Intensity Forecast

Current forecast reasoning shows low wind shear conditions over the next 48 hours, which should allow Arthur to continuously strengthen. Max winds are currently forecast at 85mph.

Track Forecast

As of right now, it seems Arthur has taken a jog to the west, so model forecasts have been pushed west as well. As a result, portions of the Outer Banks in North Carolina have now been placed under a hurricane warning. This slightly more westerly route also means increased potential for impacts in southeastern New England late Friday into Friday night. For NYC, we’ll be looking at soaking rains from the tropical moisture brought up by this storm tomorrow as well as Friday, however, confidence is decreasing that Arthur will rain out our fireworks in NYC.

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NYC Afternoon Weather Update – Severe Tstorms in Vicinty – Jul 2, 2014

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You may have already experienced it, but if you haven’t you’re probably seeing some huge clouds forming on the horizon. We’re in for some stormy weather this evening, as the Storm Prediction Center and our local forecast office have us under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The hot, humid atmosphere, along with ample sunshine earlier today, has made the atmosphere moderately unstable, with CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/Kg. This, along with mid-upper unidirectional shear will supply ample energy for strong to severe storms, with the greatest threat being frequent cloud to ground lightning and damaging winds.

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As you see above, there are already strong storms in our vicinity. The storms north of the city have met severe thunderstorm criteria (wind gusts in excess of 58mph, hail greater than 1/4″ in diameter, or a tornado). More storms are forming to our southwest, so NYC itself should not be immune to the threat later on. Check out this image of a classic towering cumulonimbus (thundercloud) below!

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NYC Weather – Independence Day – Jun 30, 2014

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Lots to talk about on the last day of June, which brings with it the opening of a warm trend and possible mini heat wave. A stubborn low pressure system over the Plains States is pushing warm and humid air from the Gulf ahead of a leading cold front. As a result, Tuesday will feature warm, muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s, maybe even touching 90.

Wednesday, that frontal boundary comes closer, and with the heat and humidity in place, we’ll have the right conditions for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms later in the day. However, coverage is expected to be widely scattered. Highs again will be in the upper 80s, possibly hitting 90.

Thursday -as the cold front makes its approach in earnest, a pre-frontal trough is forecast to develop, and this should help spark off more widespread showers and thunderstorms than on Wednesday. Expect high temperatures to be somewhat lower due to cloudy skies, but still warm and humid in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday (Independence Day) – A lot of weather forecasters were saying earlier this weekend that July 4th was going to be a nice day with no rain. Sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case now, as the timing of that pesky cold front has slowed down somewhat. This does mean you could see rain and or thunderstorms during the day Friday and into Friday night, but at least the heat will break somewhat with temperatures only around 80.

Cold front right on top of us Friday could rain on your July 4th plans.
Cold front right on top of us Friday could rain on your July 4th plans.

First Named Tropical System of the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Over the weekend, a disturbance off the east coast of Florida began to show signs of increasing organization, to the point that the National Hurricane Center now gives the system an 80% chance of forming into a tropical depression in the next 2 days. If it does, then it will become the first named tropical system of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

High resolution satellite image of the incipient tropical system off the east coast of Florida
High resolution satellite image of the incipient tropical system off the east coast of Florida

Why does this matter to us? Well, as it currently stands, it appears this tropical system/possible storm may impact our weekend weather here in the Northeast. Some forecast models have this storm moving to the near offshore waters of the Northeast by Saturday (indicated in pink circle below). This could bring the potential for rain to parts of the Northeast, in particular, New England. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this storm will strengthen much (below you see the lowest pressure at the center of 1012mb, for reference, normal pressure at sea level is 1013mb), and in fact, it will likely make a transition to becoming an extratropical cyclone/storm rather quickly after it moves north of Florida. Still, it’s a bit too early to tell just where this storm will go, so it bears monitoring.

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Possible storm tracks as illustrated by GFS ensemble members
Possible storm tracks as illustrated by several different forecast models

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2014

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A warm and humid day out there in the Tri-State this afternoon. You can feel it’s potential thunderstorm weather. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion (analysis of weather conditions conducive to severe weather on a medium scale – 10km-500km). Very moist air, warm temperatures, combined with a slowly approaching cold front set the stage this afternoon for possible development of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. This is especially the case over inland areas, as depicted below. In general, expect a line of showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms to pass through the area later this evening into the overnight areas when the cold front finally pushes through.

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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html

Thursday – there could be some lingering showers in the AM, but things will dry out quickly and clouds will slowly give way to sunnier skies. High temperatures will be a bit cooler than today, in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday – a splendid end to the work week with mostly sunny skies and comfortable, less humid conditions and temperatures in the low 80s.

Canadian high pressure will move slowly to our east, ushering in some warm air and calm skies
Canadian high pressure will move slowly to our east, ushering in some warm air and calm skies

Saturday and Sunday will both again feature excellent weather as a high pressure system works its way over our region following this cold front. As the high pressure slowly slides to the southeast, it will bring us southerly winds that will usher in another period of warm and humid weather. Saturday will be the better day of the weekend with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and lower humidity. By Sunday, temperatures will begin ramping up into the mid-80s with an increase in humidity. Early next week, we’ll be looking at a continuing warming trend with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s Monday and near 90 Tuesday before our next chance of rain.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 19, 2014

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We’re going to get some welcome relief to the brief warm spell we’ve had so far this week, as a large area of showers over Pennsylvania will move east slowly during the course of the day today. You can already feel a change in the air, with temperatures generally 10 degrees (or more) cooler this morning than at this time yesterday.

Friday – the cold front responsible for bringing us showers today will move through to our south and usher in a cool, dry air mass from Canada in its wake. High pressure will then build over Quebec and dominate the area through at least Monday. Temperatures will be pleasant near 80 with mostly sunny skies.

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Saturday and Sunday – the pattern of pleasant, mild and seasonable temperatures will set the stage for the formal beginning of summer (Saturday, June 21st is the day of the summer solstice, the longest day of the year). Temperatures both days will range in the upper 70s to low 80s, with low humidity and sunny skies.

Monday and Tuesday – this stretch of nice weather continues into the beginning of the next work week, with high pressure slowly moving off to the east, but still warm and nice. Temperatures again will be in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

Our next chance at rain will come Wednesday with a cold front associated with a two storms systems that will merge (one over the Mississippi Valley, the other moving from Ontario).

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NYC Nowcast – Jun 13, 2014

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You’ve felt the air warm up and become more humid as the warm front that brought our first round of rain passed through earlier today. Now, we’re getting set for a second round of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with a pre-frontal trough that’s slowly progressing east towards the area from Eastern Pennsylvania.

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Ahead of this line of showers and thunderstorms, the air has destabilized readily with the ample sunshine earlier this afternoon. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy – a measure of how much fuel there is for thunderstorms to feed off of) is between 1000-1500 J/Kg over Northeastern New Jersey and NYC. This should allow for this line of storms to hold up and perhaps strengthen before hitting NYC. In fact, a couple sever thunderstorm warnings have already been posted for cells over Northeastern New Jersey.

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NYC Weather Update – Jun 9, 2014

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An unsettled week is in store for us after a spectacular stretch of warm, sunny conditions this past weekend. The good news is, it looks as though the pattern of rain during the week, but clearing and warm weekends is set to continue.

Tuesday – a high pressure center over New England will swing a backdoor cold front through tomorrow. This will lead to a chance of showers during the afternoon hours, with cloudy conditions otherwise and highs in the mid-upper 70s.

Wednesday – essentially a repeat of Tuesday in terms of sensible weather. A stationary front will sit just south of NYC and allow for an increasing chance of showers and possibly a few scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the same range as Tuesday.

Thursday will probably bring the best chance of significant showers and thunderstorms coming ahead of an approaching warm front. Cloudy again, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, and a high in the upper 70s.Screen Shot 2014-06-09 at 4.22.19 PMFriday – the warm front mentioned above will slowly progress through the area during the day Friday, once again bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with mostly cloudy skies and highs once again in the upper 70s.

High pressure finally builds in during the day Saturday, which should lead to diminishing clouds, eventually mostly sunny skies for the rest of the weekend, and warmer temperatures in the low 80s.