After a week of sweltering temperatures, the weekend brings some welcome relief from the heat. The downside is that these cooler temperatures come with mostly cloudy conditions and chances for rain. Labor Day marks the traditional end of summer, and it will feel like that this weekend, but temperatures will rise right back into the upper-80s and low-90s next week.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with onshore easterly flow keeping temperatures suppressed in the mid-70s. This easterly onshore flow is happening on the back side of a cold front that passed through yesterday. This front will stall out and become stationary south of us over the Delmarva Peninsula. As impulses of energy move along this front, there will be chances for rain. However, it does appear the best chances for rain stay south of us.
Saturday – mostly cloudy still with slightly warmer temperatures in the upper-70s. Easterly onshore winds continue along with some chances for rain in the afternoon and more chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Sunday – warming up into the mid-80s with scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny skies otherwise.
Monday (Labor Day) – conditions improve just in time for the West Indian Day Parade festivities with high temperatures in the upper-80s and partly sunny skies.
I wrote that I would not be posting any updates while on vacation unless there were to be a special event that warranted it. Well, the likely approach of the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine into the offshore waters in our region certainly warrants this special update. As of now, it appears that Labor Day itself will be the only day when we could see significant impacts from this storm, but this could change. I will likely have another update Sunday.
Rest of today – sunny, and pleasant with a high in the low-80s. This will be by far the best day of the long weekend.
Saturday – increasing clouds, high temperature around 80ºF.
Sunday – mostly cloudy, with chances for rain increasing in the afternoon. Cool, with highs only in the mid-upper 70s.
Labor Day (Monday) – tropical storm conditions possible, strong and gusty winds, and possible periods of heavy rain, especially in coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents at the beaches, as well as moderate to major coastal flooding. Mostly cloudy otherwise with high temperatures in the upper-70s.
Tropical Storm Hermine this morning
Tuesday – with the remnants of Hermine currently forecast to linger off of the coast of the Northeast, we could see another day of possible tropical storm conditions. Warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s.
Tropical Storm Hermine’s Forecast
Since the inception of Hermine as a tropical wave off the coast of West Africa, forecasters have had difficulty in accurately capturing the track and intensity of this storm. Its approach towards our region is no different. The forecast is complicated by the fact that Hermine will be completing a process of extratropical transition. A complex set of interactions between it and a frontal boundary adds a high degree of uncertainty towards the late period of this forecast.
Forecast Track
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center’s official 5 day forecast called for Hermine to continue tracking rapidly northeast just inland of the Southeast coast as it initially interacts with a frontal boundary in its vicinity. During this period, it is expected to weaken, but by Saturday evening, it is expected to re-emerge over open water off the North Carolina Coast. At this point, Hermine is expected to have completed extratropical transition. It will begin another interaction with a baroclinic frontal zone, which is expected to significantly slow its forward progress down. This slowing will likely also lead to the storm erratically meandering off the Northeast coast, possibly doing a loop.
Some major forecast model’s current output for HermineGFS ensemble models (spaghetti models), white denotes the consensus track
Intensity Forecast
During the period that the storm is over land, it will weaken continuously. However, by Saturday evening, when it is expected to re-emerge over open water, and complete extratropical transition, it will gain in strength. The extratropical transition will impart energy from baroclinic forces (interactions between airmasses of differing pressures), and the storm is expected to re-intensify into a strong extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-65mph.
Impacts
The intensity and location of these impacts will depend greatly on the eventual track for this storm.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for the entire New Jersey coast. Heavy rain in coastal areas. Strong sustained winds, winds gusting in excess of 50mph in some coastal areas. Beach erosion along with coastal flooding, possibly for an extended period of time. High surf and dangerous rip currents.
