Cold start to this weekend gives way to a milder feel but a soaker of a day Sunday. Going into next week, much of the week will see above average temperatures.
Rest of today – increasing low-level clouds associated with warm air advecting from the south ahead of a warm front. Temperatures still on the cool side during the day with high temperatures in the mid-30s.
Saturday – overnight temperatures actually start to rise as warm advection really takes hold. High temperatures will substantially warmer near 50°F. Cloudy with increasing chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west.
Sunday – the cold front above will stall in our vicinity, with tropical moisture surging along this frontal boundary. This will result in multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.
Monday – cooler but still decent with decreasing clouds and high temperatures in the mid-40s.
We follow the general pattern of last weekend with a warm up occurring, accompanied by some rain on Sunday. Temperatures cool off again to begin next week. Snow is possible late Monday into early Tuesday.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with highs in the mid-30s. A warm front pushes through and winds shift to the southwest, setting the stage for much warmer temperatures over the weekend.
Saturday – a gem of a day with high temperatures in and around 50°F and sunny skies.
Sunday – showers as a cold front pushes through. Temperatures still warm in and around 50°F. Mostly cloudy otherwise.
Monday – temperatures cool back off into the low-40s after the passage of the cold front bringing rain on Sunday.
The relatively minor cold spell we’ve had this week transitions into a dramatic warm up going into the weekend. Above normal temperatures will persist into the beginning of next week before moderating later in the week. We have a chance for a soaking rain beginning Monday night going into Tuesday.
Rest of today – partly sunny with some gradual clearing later. High temperatures in the upper-30s to around 40ºF.
Saturday – much warmer due to a dramatic shift in the jet stream with high temperatures around 50ºF with warm air rushing in from the south and west ahead of a frontal boundary. The polar jet that’s brought a return of cold air to the region will be pushed considerably further north of us with high pressure building to the southwest. This is a setup favoring much warmer air flowing in from the south and west.
Sunday – a backdoor cold front will sweep in from the northeast, bringing cooler, more moist air from the Canadian Maritimes, leading to high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly sunny.
Monday – cloudy with a high in the low-40s and increasing chances of rain as a vigorous low pressure system approaches from the southwest.
Abrupt changes are the name of the game this weekend. Temperatures start off with near or above record breaking warmth before plunging right back into below average Arctic chill. Cold air sticks with us well into next week.
Rest of today – areas of dense fog as snowpack melts and warm air surging from the south moves over it (advection fog). This will be accompanied by several bouts of moderate to heavy rain starting later this morning and late this afternoon as well. Overcast skies, with temperatures well into the upper-50s with 60°F or even above for a spot or two entirely possible while we remain in the warm sector.
All of this precipitation on the high resolution rapid refresh simulated radar will be making its way from southwest to northeast across our region today and tomorrow.
Saturday – another shot of moderate to heavy rain overnight into the early morning hours. High temperatures in the mid-40s anticipated early on with temperatures steadily falling the rest of the day. Overnight lows into Sunday only in the mid-teens! This is due to very cold air rushing back into the area after the passage of this cold front bringing us the rain.
Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-20s.
A light snow tops off 2017. The new year comes with a continued stretch of arctic cold. Make sure to bundle up for your New Year’s Eve festivities as this may be one of the coldest nights we’ve seen. Cold extends well into next week where we could see a more substantial snow storm.
Rest of today – increasing clouds, cold, with high temperatures in the low-20s.
Saturday – a weak storm system moving from the Great Lakes and a secondary coastal low should bring a light snowfall of 1-2″ in the city. High temperatures in the mid-20s.
Sunday (New Year’s Eve) – Arctic high pressure returns with a vengeance. High temperatures around 20°F, with mostly sunny skies.
Monday (New Year’s Day) – bitterly cold temperatures overnight hovering in the low teens. Wind chill will make frostbite a real issue. High temperatures Monday struggle to break even 20°F.
Those of you hoping for a white Christmas will be disappointed to know that we’ll instead probably be getting a rainy weekend. There is still some small chance for snow mixed with rain Christmas Day, but the white stuff won’t be sticking. While temperatures will warm up this first weekend of the official start of winter, they will plummet considerably after Christmas. Looking into long-range forecast models, there are some indications for what could be winter storms for the first couple weekends of January.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with some thin clouds, but cool with high temperatures in about 40°F.
Saturday – overnight into tomorrow, a warm front will be pushing through associated with the first of two storms affecting the area this holiday weekend. Light rain will precede this frontal passage overnight, then warmer air and steadier precipitation should affect the area during the day Saturday. High temperatures will be much warmer, around 50°F.
Sunday – once the cold front depicted above moves through, we will get a calm day on Sunday with high temperatures dropping back into the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies.
Monday (Christmas Day) – another area of low pressure will develop along the cold front that pushes into the Atlantic. This low will track close enough to the Northeast to bring some chance for a passing snow shower early in the day Monday with much colder air rushing in from the northwest. High temperatures should be in the low-40s.
A very cold start to the weekend with light snow accumulations will give way to a warming trend that carries over to the beginning of next week. During this time, we’ll see temperatures go from much below average to above average.
Rest of today – snow beginning around 2PM today and lasting through the evening rush hour with generally 1-2″ of accumulations expected in the city. Cloudy otherwise with high temperatures holding steady in the upper-20s to around 30ºF. The cause of the snow is a strengthening coastal low. This low will pass close enough that a shield of decent snowfall hits the area for several hours this afternoon.
Saturday – another cold night with overnight lows in the mid-20s in the city before sunny conditions help propel temperatures into the upper-30s.
Sunday – very similar day to Saturday with high temperatures again in the upper-30s and mostly sunny conditions.
Monday – chance of light rain/snow mix overnight due to a passing warm front. Behind the warm front, temperatures reach well into the mid-40s with partly sunny skies.
The weather headline for this weekend will be our first accumulating snow of the season! Aside from this, below average and cold temperatures will be in place throughout the weekend and well into next week. This persistent cold spell has a direct link to high pressure over the western US that has resulted in fires in California. Another chance for additional accumulating snow is possible early next week.
Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies. Snow beginning in the overnight hours into tomorrow.
Saturday – snow throughout the day, accumulations of largely between 2-4″ during the day expected in the city, but with higher totals moving east, in the 4-6″ range for parts of Queens, and Brooklyn. High temperatures in the low-30s.
A coastal storm will develop and strengthen off the Southeast coast as an upper level shortwave and a jet streak work to enhance it. The jet streak in particular will provide strong lift for the development of snow showers. Thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere in our region will support all snow. Model trends seem to continue nudging the track westward over the past couple of days. Further shifts west would result in higher snowfall totals, which are suggested by the GEFs plumes in the last image in this section that point a range of 6-8″ of snow for LGA.
Weather Prediction Center surface low tracks and clusters. Focus on the coastal low track. The mean track takes this storm very close to the 40°N 70°W benchmark, a location for coastal low centers that generally translates to robust snowfall for winter storms.
Sunday – an additional accumulation of an inch or so is forecast overnight Saturday as snow begins tapering off going into Sunday. As the low pulls away, winds will turn to the west and strengthen. High temperatures will actually be somewhat warmer in the upper-30s with mostly sunny skies.
Monday – mostly sunny skies again with high temperatures around 40°F.
Get ready for record-breaking cold and a blast of deep winter tonight. The cold spell slowly abates over the course of the weekend, but even by Monday, high temperatures are still anticipated to be below normal for this time of year. There is a chance for precipitation on Sunday night with the passage of a weak disturbance.
Rest of today – we’ve already reached today’s daytime high of about 40°F and temperatures will be falling throughout the rest of the day. An arctic front is passing over us now, in its wake, strong cold advection (transport) is ongoing as a continental polar airmass from northern Canada dives down into the area. A high pressure center over Minnesota is also creating a fairly strong pressure gradient with a low pressure system in central Quebec. This will result in breezy conditions with winds from the northwest at around 25 mph and gusts over 40 mph. Wind chill values will fall from the 30s into the 20s.
Strong cold advection is ongoing behind the arctic front. Temperatures are dropping by as much as 2.5-3°F per hour in the Northeast.
Saturday (Veterans Day) – overnight lows going into Saturday are forecast to plummet to record-breaking levels in the low-20s. The high pressure pictured above will be moving closer to us, decreasing the pressure gradient and reducing the winds here. Temperatures should top out around 40°F with lots of sun. It will be a chilly, but sunny day for the Veterans Day Parade.
Sunday – temperatures continue to warm into the upper-40 with increasing clouds.
Monday – some uncertainty exists about the possibility of precipitation overnight into Monday. High temperatures will finally be approaching normal for this time of year with highs in the low-50s and mostly cloudy skies.
We’ve got a wonderful stretch of below average but sunny, fall-like weather ahead of us over the weekend. The main weather story lies far to our south as Florida braces for Hurricane Irma over this same time period. Irma has weakened a bit but is still a large and dangerous Category 4 storm capable of wreaking havoc over the entire state of Florida.
Rest of today – our weather will be dictated by an area of high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes. This will give us mostly sunny skies with a cool high in the mid-70s.
High pressure firmly in control of the weather in our part of the world. You can see Hurricane Irma making its finally approach on Florida in the lower right.
Saturday – sunny with temperatures in the low-70s as the high pressure over the Great Lakes moves east a bit.
Sunday – more of the same as Saturday with sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.
Monday – slightly warmer with high temperatures creeping back into the mid-70s with some more clouds.
Hurricane Irma a Major Threat to South Florida
Current Situation
Hurricane Irma has been weakening in the last 12 hours. It’s evident the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eye of the storm collapses and is replaced by a larger, outer eye. During these internal cycles, max wind speeds often decrease and fluctuate before the storm consolidates a new eye. It has been downgraded to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
Headlines
Landfall somewhere in South Florida over the weekend is a near certainty. Outer bands from Irma are expected to reach South Florida overnight tonight. Life-threatening storm surge inundation and damage from winds of major hurricane force (115 mph) are a near-certainty for parts of South Florida.
Since midday yesterday, forecast models have trended slight back towards a westerly solution for the forecast track of the storm. This almost eliminates the risks to Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas from a direct hit from a major hurricane. However, the risk to these areas from storm surge and strong tropical storm force/marginal hurricane force winds still exists.
There is still a chance Irma could make landfall on Cuba. This would weaken the storm ahead of subsequent landfall on Florida.
Forecast Track
As mentioned above, the best performing forecast models have shifted back to a more westerly track for Hurricane Irma.
Several different forecast models take on Irma’s track.Official National Hurricane Center forecast as of 8AM today.
Forecast Intensity
While Irma has weakened to a Category 4 storm due to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, it remains an extremely dangerous storm with an expanding wind field due to this cycle. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles on each side of the eye and tropical storm force winds well beyond that. It remains possible that Irma can re-strengthen if it completes the eyewall replacement cycle before it interacts with land. Mid-level wind shear remains negligible and Irma will soon be passing over very warm seas with increasing depth. Both of these factors would suggest it maintaining Category 4 strength or possibly re-intensifying to Category 5.
Uncertainties
Any landfall on Cuba or interaction of the core of the storm with the high mountains of that island would disrupt the storm and cause weakening. This would be good news for Florida, at the expense of Cuba of course.
Should the core of the storm avoid Cuba and close off a new eye before too much time elapses, it would have the possibility of re-strengthening before landfall. A strong Category 4 or even a Category 5 storm making landfall on Florida is not out of the question.
