Tag Archives: nyc weekend weather

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather, Eyes on Irma – Sep 1, 2017

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It will definitely feel like the end of summer this weekend as temperatures will be much below average for this time of the year. The remnants of Harvey are also likely to put a damper on weekend activities Saturday night through a decent chunk of Sunday. Labor Day Monday itself looks like a gem. In the long term, I’m keeping tabs up Hurricane Irma, which worries me with its potential to affect the East Coast.

Rest of today – cool, with a Canadian high pressure center to our north-northwest, we’ll feel a refreshing north wind that will diminish through the day. High temperatures are only forecast to hit 70ºF or so even with sunny skies, 10ºF+ below normal for this time of year.

Saturday – temperatures remain cool in the uppper-60s with an easterly onshore flow ahead of an approaching warm front associated with the remnants of Harvey. Overrunning clouds will move in before rain chances build up overnight.

Sunday – rain lingers into the day on Sunday before ending by the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s as we get some warmer return flow behind the storm with high pressure setting up to our southwest.

Monday – the warming pattering continues with highs returning to around normal in the low-80s with sunny skies. This is the best day for your holiday weekend grilling, and should be excellent viewing conditions for the annual West Indian Day Parade and carnival.

 

Hurricane Irma – possible threat to the East Coast?

We’ve entered the peak of the hurricane season and right on the toes of Harvey we have Hurricane Irma which put on an impressive display of strengthening the last couple days wen it went from a tropical storm to Category 3 major hurricane. It’s weakened a slight bit but conditions are still favorable for it re-strengthen into a powerful Category 3 of 4 storm before making an approach on the Lesser Antilles.

What is concerning to me is the storm is forecast to take a jog to the southwest over the weekend. The further south and west this storm gets before it starts the process of curving back out to sea at a higher latitude, the greater the chance that it could impact the East Coast of the US. There is still a lot of time so things could definitely change, but it is worth noting that current forecasts favor a more southerly track, enhancing the risk to us. I’ve seen GFS model runs show the storm make direct landfall on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As of this morning, the GFS backed off of this type of scenario. It does bear watching though.

NYC Weekend Weather + Note on Harvey – Aug 25, 2017

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I’ve returned from Europe (missed the eclipse though!) to a very pleasant stretch of calm weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Surface high pressure to our northwest over Ontario will continue to bring us cool, dry Canadian air that evokes a more fall-like feel.

Rest of today – just about normal temperatures with highs around 80°F, skies have cleared up nicely and we should have spectacular weather for the start of the weekend.

Saturday – high pressure remains in control, and gives us another pristine day of slightly below normal temperatures in the upper-70s but lots of sun.

Sunday – basically a clone of Saturday, high temperatures in the upper-70s, lots of sun.

Monday – more of the same with temperatures again in the upper-70s, maybe a few more clouds, but who can complain especially when you consider the next section.

 

Hurricane Harvey a Major Threat to the Texas Coast

It’s worth mentioning here that we have a very dangerous situation developing on the Texas coast today and over the course of the next few days with Hurricane Harvey. If you have friends or family in this area, it’s not a bad idea just to try and check in with them.

GOES 16 visible satellite image of Harvey showing impressive size, distinctive eye, decent symmetrical outflow except on the side already beginning to interact with land.

Harvey originally formed over the eastern Caribbean, dissipated approaching the Yucatan, and then redeveloped as it emerged over the Bay of Campeche. Favorable conditions have allowed Harvey to strengthen quickly into a Category 2 storm, and it’s forecast to continue strengthening to Category 3 before landfall.

This would make it the first major hurricane to make landfall on the US mainland in nearly 12 years. The biggest concern with Harvey is that most forecast models have the storm stalling out after landfall, and possibly looping back out to the Gulf and making a second landfall mid-week next week in eastern Texas, still retaining tropical storm strength. Two areas of upper-level high pressure will essentially be trapping Harvey in place.

The slowing forward motion of the storm means that tropical storm and hurricane force winds will rage for many hours. The longer the winds churn up the waters of the gulf, the bigger the life-threatening storm surge along the coast. Peak storm surge of 6-12′ is forecast. That’s without waves on top. For reference, Sandy brought a peak storm surge of 14′ to The Battery. That’s well above the first, and well into the second story of most homes. On top of that, rainfall totals measuring 2-3′ are possible, which would cause widespread inland flooding.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 4, 2017

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A hot week transitions into a weekend that will see the end of the heat and humidity for at least half of next week and maybe longer. Rain and thunderstorms dot the forecast except appropriately Sunday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. The rain and thunderstorms this morning give way to a dry day otherwise.

Saturday – a warm front moves through overnight into the morning with a cold front following right on its heels. This will bring a period thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Marginally favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn a few strong storms. Clouds clear up in the afternoon and highs are expected to reach normal levels in the mid-80s.

Sunday – cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west and moves south sending cooler Canadian air around its periphery towards us. High temperatures will be comfortable around 80°F with lots of sun.

Monday – a weak disturbance brings rain and cooler temperatures, well below average only in the mid-upper 70s.

Trouble in the Tropics?

A vigorous tropical wave has spun up off the west African coast and Cabo Verde. Storms originating from this region have historically been some of the most powerful and damaging, but that’s if they can sustain the transit across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has this wave at a 50% of forming into a tropical depression or storm in 2 days, and 80% chance in 5 days. It’s worrying that it’s starting to get picked up on long-term GFS model runs taking a swipe at the US East Coast as a strong tropical cyclone, however, this far out, it’s difficult to say which one of many scenarios could play out. It does bear monitoring though.

GFS for Wednesday 8/16, with the tropical system in the picture right off the East Coast of the US.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2017

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After a couple days of average temperatures, this weekend sees a return to cool temperatures with a wet start to it all. Conditions improve Sunday, and high pressure builds but temperatures remain below normal until later next week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds as a coastal low begins to form off the Mid-Atlantic. Warm with high temperatures right around normal in the low-mid 80s. Rain should hold off until the overnight hours.

High resolution rapid refresh model runs don’t show significant rainfall until around 2AM EDT Saturday

Saturday – an unpleasant, raw, windy, rainy day more reminiscent of autumn or spring than late July. As the coastal low moves closer to us along a stalled frontal boundary, it will bring chances for moderate to heavy rain along with a stiff northeast wind around 25 mph. As a result, temperatures will be surpressed in the mid-70s. Rain chances taper off during the day as the low moves east.

Sunday – much nicer with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding to around 80°F. Still will have a cooling influence of the weakening northeast winds.

Monday – high pressure builds and yields another decent day with high temperatures around 80°F, possibly higher with more sun.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2017

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What a difference a day makes – we went from a high in the low-mid 90s yesterday to a high today 20ºF cooler. Anticipate multiple rounds of rain throughout Friday, but much improved conditions for the weekend itself. We get another shot at rain on Monday to start next week.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with an easterly wind and the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass following the passage of a cold front earlier, we will experience significantly below normal high temperatures only in the low-mid 70s. The cold front will stick around just south of us during this time, and multiple impulses of energy will ride along this front. This means chances for rain, outside of this morning, most likely again in the early evening hours.

Saturday – early morning fog clears out quickly and gives way to a partly to mostly sunny day with much warmer temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

Monday – a gradual warmup begins Monday with high temperatures into the upper-80s and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Jun 16, 2017

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What a difference a week makes. Since Wednesday, we’ve seen temperatures slide from record heat in some places. An unsettled weather pattern takes hold through the weekend and into next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

Rest of today – Cloudy, temperatures on the cool side with high temperatures only in the low-70s. Multiple chances for mainly showery precipitation with a warm front slowly creeping towards us. Two primary batches of rain look to affect the area around noon then again in the late evening around 10pm.

Saturday – the warm front mentioned above should push through, but could be slow to do so which would result in a lower high temperature like today as opposed to the upper-70s. Both before and after the warm front passage there’s a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Generally mostly cloudy.

Sunday – we’ll be in the warm sector between the exiting warm front and an approaching cold front. High temperatures will respond by climbing into the mid-80s. Could start the day off with scattered showers. The majority of the day looks rain-free though cloudy. Not a total washout for Father’s Day, but not ideal either.

Monday – the cold front pushes through late in the day. High temperatures again in the low-mid 80s. There’s some possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms with associated with this cold front. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere would easily yield some heavy downpours as well.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 26, 2017

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After a soaking rain yesterday, we enter a holiday weekend with a mixed bag of weather. The first half of the weekend should turn out to be the better half in terms of conditions for outdoor activities. Temperatures during the period will be at or just below normal in the low-mid 70s.

Rest of today – heavy rains fell overnight into early this morning. Mostly sunny skies should give way later in the afternoon to a second round of more scattered showers. High temperatures in the mid-70s and maybe a touch higher depending how much sun we get.

Saturday – best day of the weekend as we get a respite from a near continuous chain of disturbances. Partly sunny with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Sunday – small chance for scattered showers, primarily early in the morning, mostly cloudy and cooler with temperatures in the upper-60s.

Monday (Memorial Day) – increased chance for showers and maybe even a couple thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy otherwise wirh high temperatures around 70F.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 19, 2017

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We’re well on pace to hit the low-90s again today, which would officially mark the first heat wave of 2017. The Bermuda high that led to these sultry conditions allowed us to heat up even more than official National Weather Service forecasts called for. Temperatures ranged 20ºF above normal in many places away from south facing shorelines. The weekend sees a drastic change in airmasses and a return to more seasonable conditions before the next chance for rain Monday.

Rest of today – hot, humid, high temperatures reaching the low-90s for most areas again except the south-facing shorelines of Long Island. Air quality has improved today so no alert is active. A cold front passes through the area later this evening, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday – the passage of the cold front late Friday sets the stage for a dramatic shift in airmasses. Behind the cold front, a high pressure center over Canada will bring much cooler air riding winds from the north and northeast. Temperatures Saturday are expected to cool off into the upper-60s, with much drier conditions and mostly sunny skies.

Sunday – another cool day with temperatures in the mid-60s and clouds building ahead of a warm front that will move through Monday.

Monday – a warm front, followed quickly by a cold front pushes through Monday. The result will be mostly cloudy skies and an extended period of showers through the day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the low-70s.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 12, 2017

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Another rainy weekend on tap for the Tri-State area as a Nor’easter takes aim at the Mid-Atlantic and New England just in time to put a damper on Mother’s Day plans. Luckily for us, rain on actual Mother’s Day should be limited to the morning hours. Next week, we’re looking forward to a big warm up in temperatures.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures topping out in the low-60s.

Saturday – a Nor’easter moves in on the area overnight into Saturday. Expect raw, windy, rainy conditions for the duration of the day. There could be periods of moderate to heavy rain along with east/east-northeast winds in the 15mph with stronger gusts. High temperatures with the onshore flow, clouds, and rain only expected to reach the low-50s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – rains clear up earlier in the day, but we’re still left with a windy and cloudy day. The tradeoff is warmer temperatures in the mid-60s.

Monday – partly sunny skies with improving conditions and high temperatures in the mid-60s.

 

Warmup Ahead

Starting Tuesday, temperatures begin to warm up significantly with a shift in our weather pattern. A summer-like Bermuda high sets up and pumps in warm air from the south into the area, resulting in temperatures above to well-above normal (some 80s possible late week).

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 4, 2017

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This weekend brings a drastic change in temperature from the last, with high temperatures fully 20°F cooler. Not only that, but a slow moving upper low pressure system will induce multiple rounds of rain resulting in an extended period of unsettled weather for the area. The most substantial rain occurs Friday. Temperatures remain 5-8°F below normal during this stretch which continues into next week.

Rest of today – enjoy the bright sun shine while it lasts. With high pressure still in control, expect mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the low-60s.

Friday – the same storm system that has been impacting the mid-Mississippi Valley with flooding rains starts to move into our region Friday. Steady rains and embedded thunderstorms throughout the day could bring a total of 1-2″ of rainfall totals. The band of heaviest rains appears likely to cross into the city around 11AM. Temperatures will be about the same as today, in the low-60s, under mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday – unfortunately, due to the slow moving nature of the low pressure system responsible for the rain Friday, there remains a lingering chance for rain Saturday, particular late in the day and into the evening. Temperatures remain cool in the low-60s.

Sunday – improving conditions, with rain chances finally diminishing. There could be some breaks for sun, with high temperatures hovering at just about 60°F.

 

Drought Almost Totally Gone, Cooler Temperatures Prevail

With all of the plentiful spring rains, only a very small slice of the Hudson Valley remains under abnormally dry conditions. Meanwhile, Climate Prediction Center points to cooler conditions continuing into the next 6-10 days.