After some needed rain yesterday, we move back into a pattern of dry weather that will be in place until at least mid-week next week. Temperatures will be the coldest this season on Saturday behind a cold front, then rebound to above normal for the remainder of the period.
Rest of today – clearing skies with temperatures dropping into the mid-40s overnight. Winds pick up from the northwest.
Friday (Veteran’s Day) – high temperatures in the upper-50s. Clouds increasing with an approaching cold front, but no rain is expected due to lack of enough moisture. Windy, with a northwest wind 15-25mph.
Saturday – overnight lows Friday will be the coldest yet for the city right above freezing. Temperatures do not rebound much Saturday even with lots of sun. Highs may not even hit 50ºF. Winds abate somewhat, but still in the 10-15mph range.
Sunday – this high pressure will slide towards the southeast by Sunday. Return flow around the western edge of the high pressure will shift winds more to the west/southwest allowing warmer air in and high temperatures around 60ºF.
This weekend we will see a brief warmup in temperatures. Saturday will have the best weather, with another round of rain likely for later in the day Sunday. Temperatures dip back below normal Monday to start off next week.
Rest of today – it’ll be a mostly sunny day. However, a tight pressure gradient around the low pressure and storm system that brought us moderate to heavy rain yesterday will result in stiff winds from the northwest. Temperatures will be below normal in the upper-50s.
Saturday – a very pleasant day on tap with temperatures bouncing back nicely into the low-60s, not too much wind and mostly sunny skies.
Sunday – a cold front will be draped from west to east across the Northeast and push through late Sunday. Temperatures ahead of the frontal boundary will be quite mild in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. We get another chance at much needed rain with this frontal passage.
Monday – temperatures fall back into the upper-50s as a result of the cold front passing through Sunday. Mostly sunny skies though.
The main weather headline for this weekend was going to be about possible impacts from Hurricane Matthew. I’m glad to report it now appears the storm will miss us, but the good news for us translates for doubly bad news for Florida. We went from a possible hurricane/tropical storm impact this weekend to a weekend where we expect to see some decent, fall-like weather.
Rest of today – sunny with a high temperature in the low-70s.
Friday – sunny, slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. High pressure remains anchored over the area, blocking the progress of Matthew northward, and also giving us great weather.
Saturday – a cold front will approach from the west, clouds will increase overnight and there is a chance for rain on Saturday. Mostly cloudy otherwise with highs in the low-70s. Part of the reason Matthew is expected to miss the Northeast is because this frontal boundary was faster to approach than was forecast earlier. This means it will have a role in pushing Matthew out to sea, instead of lifting it north towards the coast here.
Sunday – noticeably cooler with below average high temperatures only in the mid-60s and skies clearing.
Hurricane Matthew No Longer a Threat to the Northeast – Could Hit Florida Twice
As of 11AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center‘s advisory showed that Hurricane Matthew had restrengthened into a robust Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. It had just moved past New Providence island in the Bahamas moving northwest at 14mph, having avoiding a direct landfall on the highly populated island where the capital Nassau sits. However, as we get more information in, it’s becoming clear that some areas of Haiti really got the worst case scenario. This video footage from the small town of Jeremie on the northern side of the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula shows the catastrophic damage Matthew caused. Jeremie took a direct hit from the storm’s northeastern eyewall, the strongest part of the storm, as Matthew made landfall on Haiti as a Category 4 with 145mph winds. This gives you an idea of the raw power of the storm that’s now headed for Florida.
Satellite image of Matthew at 11AM EDT October 6th, 2016. Below: radar imagery from Miami shows Matthew’s eye.
Outlook for Matthew
Luckily for us, long-range forecast models show that Matthew no longer poses a threat to the Northeast. The flip side is that a fairly unprecedented scenario might befall Florida. Some models are suggesting that after Matthew moves offshore of the Carolinas, it may execute a large cyclonic loop, with the possibility of making a second landfall on South Florida later next week, albeit as a much weaker storm. First, Floridians all up and down the east coast, will have to contend with a dangerous Category 4 storm scraping along the shore or maybe making direct landfall. The coast scraper scenario would result in worse outcomes for Georgia and South Carolina, since reduced interaction with land will mean a stronger storm, as well as higher storm surge.
We are in an active weather pattern for the entirety of the weekend, with chances for rain nearly every day. This rain is welcome and much needed, as drought persists across much of the area. Friday looks to deliver the heaviest, most persistent rain. We’re also closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Matthew. While Matthew is still only in the Caribbean, it appears increasingly likely it will impact the East Coast next weekend.
Today – high pressure anchored over southern Quebec/southeastern Canada will serve to block the progress of an upper-level low that’s been drenching areas of the Mid-Atlantic. The influence of the high should keep most of the region relatively dry today, with the exception of further west in New Jersey. However, the high pressure to the east and frontal boundary siting just south of us will induce an onshore northeasterly wind, bringing cooler than normal temperatures only in the mid-60s.
Friday – rain chances ramp up considerably Friday as the front depicted to the south edges slightly northwards. This looks to bring a batch of moderate to heavy rain onshore primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be even cooler than today in the low-60s with overcast skies and that persistent northeast wind.
Saturday – temperatures warm up a little into the upper-60s, but rain chances continue throughout the day along with overcast conditions.
Sunday – rain chances begin to diminish as temperatures continue to warm to around 70ºF. Even if rain doesn’t fall, it’ll still be a cloudy day.
Tropical Storm Matthew – Potential East Coast Impact?
Tropical Storm Matthew formed just east of the Lesser Antilles a couple days ago as a vigorous tropical storm and has been steadily progressing west and growing in intensity. Matthew is already a 65mph storm. It is being impacted by moderate southwesterly wind shear that will impede significant strengthening the next couple days. However, this shear is expected to ease as it moves over the warmest waters of the Caribbean. That should allow for more rapid intensification.
Of course, Matthew is far from being a threat to us now, but for days, it’s been clear from various forecast models that this storm will eventually turn north. The pivotal question for whether Matthew becomes a direct threat to us is when this turn north occurs. It’s not looking particularly good for us now, as the forecast package from the National Hurricane Center continues to suggest Matthew will eventually move up the East Coast next week.
Today marks the official start of astronomical autumn, even though it will feel anything but fall-like today. Temperatures cool off considerably this weekend, which will lead us into a period of average to below average temperatures for the next week or so.
Rest of today – warm with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and sunny skies.
Friday – warmer still with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and mostly sunny skies. Small chance for showers overnight as a cold front encroaches from the west.
Saturday – with the aforementioned cold front swinging through, we will get a noticeable change in airmasses from a more humid, tropical influence we’ve felt the last few days, to a drier, cooler, continental airmass from Canada. The resulting swing in temperatures will be dramatic, with high temperatures on Saturday ranging 10ºF lower than Friday in the mid-70s.
Sunday – one of many sunny, fall-like days coming with temperatures in the low-mid 70s.
Monday – almost a clone of Sunday, sunny with highs in the low-70s.
Yesterday was the Mid-Autumn Festival, a traditional harvest festival celebrated by many cultures in East Asia. It certainly felt more fall-like yesterday with below average temperatures after we spent one day near 90ºF on Wednesday. The fall weather continues this weekend, with a chance for some much needed rain Sunday.
Rest of today – crisp and cool with high temperatures below normal in the low-mid 70s.
Saturday – a bit warmer, with temperatures a couple degrees above normal under sunny skies, in the upper-70s.
Sunday – ahead of an advancing cold front, we could see showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain, particularly in the afternoon. high temperatures will warm up a little ahead of this front, into the low-80s under mostly cloudy skies.
Monday – since the frontal boundary won’t pass through until late in the day, there’s a lingering chance for showers with high temperatures hovering around 80ºF.
This past week, weather headlines were dominated by the uncertain course of how Post-tropical Cyclone Hermine would unfold. Now that Hermine has dissipated and is well behind us, we look ahead to the end of the week which will start off warm, but cool off somewhat.
Rest of today – it’s sunny now, but clouds are moving in from the north and west, and will likely result in partly sunny skies later on. High temperatures will range into the upper-80s and around 90ºF in some parts.
Friday – with an area of high pressure to our southwest, warm, humid air from south will flow into the region allowing temperatures to rise into the low-90s. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Saturday – a frontal boundary will be lingering in our vicinity during the day. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday – the frontal boundary pushes through as a cold front and brings in some relief from heat and humidity. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to rise to the mid-80s.
Drought Persists, Some Relief Ahead?
Parts of our state are still dealing with an extreme drought, though in our region, we’re “lucky” enough to only have a moderate to severe drought in parts of Long Island. The monthly outlook does call for some drought relief for Long Island, though.
I wrote that I would not be posting any updates while on vacation unless there were to be a special event that warranted it. Well, the likely approach of the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine into the offshore waters in our region certainly warrants this special update. As of now, it appears that Labor Day itself will be the only day when we could see significant impacts from this storm, but this could change. I will likely have another update Sunday.
Rest of today – sunny, and pleasant with a high in the low-80s. This will be by far the best day of the long weekend.
Saturday – increasing clouds, high temperature around 80ºF.
Sunday – mostly cloudy, with chances for rain increasing in the afternoon. Cool, with highs only in the mid-upper 70s.
Labor Day (Monday) – tropical storm conditions possible, strong and gusty winds, and possible periods of heavy rain, especially in coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents at the beaches, as well as moderate to major coastal flooding. Mostly cloudy otherwise with high temperatures in the upper-70s.
Tropical Storm Hermine this morning
Tuesday – with the remnants of Hermine currently forecast to linger off of the coast of the Northeast, we could see another day of possible tropical storm conditions. Warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s.
Tropical Storm Hermine’s Forecast
Since the inception of Hermine as a tropical wave off the coast of West Africa, forecasters have had difficulty in accurately capturing the track and intensity of this storm. Its approach towards our region is no different. The forecast is complicated by the fact that Hermine will be completing a process of extratropical transition. A complex set of interactions between it and a frontal boundary adds a high degree of uncertainty towards the late period of this forecast.
Forecast Track
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center’s official 5 day forecast called for Hermine to continue tracking rapidly northeast just inland of the Southeast coast as it initially interacts with a frontal boundary in its vicinity. During this period, it is expected to weaken, but by Saturday evening, it is expected to re-emerge over open water off the North Carolina Coast. At this point, Hermine is expected to have completed extratropical transition. It will begin another interaction with a baroclinic frontal zone, which is expected to significantly slow its forward progress down. This slowing will likely also lead to the storm erratically meandering off the Northeast coast, possibly doing a loop.
Some major forecast model’s current output for HermineGFS ensemble models (spaghetti models), white denotes the consensus track
Intensity Forecast
During the period that the storm is over land, it will weaken continuously. However, by Saturday evening, when it is expected to re-emerge over open water, and complete extratropical transition, it will gain in strength. The extratropical transition will impart energy from baroclinic forces (interactions between airmasses of differing pressures), and the storm is expected to re-intensify into a strong extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-65mph.
Impacts
The intensity and location of these impacts will depend greatly on the eventual track for this storm.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for the entire New Jersey coast. Heavy rain in coastal areas. Strong sustained winds, winds gusting in excess of 50mph in some coastal areas. Beach erosion along with coastal flooding, possibly for an extended period of time. High surf and dangerous rip currents.
The end of this week and this weekend will see a gradual transition away from the long-lasting heat and humidity that has gripped the area over the last couple of weeks. There will be some chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with more significant chances for rain Sunday night and going into Monday.
Rest of today – clouds are expected to clear somewhat, allowing high temperatures to reach into the mid-80s. Some slight chance for showers and thunderstorms exists this afternoon.
Friday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, and again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday – pretty much the same as Friday, high temperatures in the upper-80s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday – starts out decently enough, but clouds will increase, temperatures will probably end up in the mid-80s. A complex set up of multiple frontal boundaries will be moving in/setting up over the area later Sunday into the overnight hours. The exact timing of the arrival of more significant rains is still not very certain.
Monday – depending on the timing of the frontal boundaries above, we could see a mostly dry day Monday, with temperatures in the normal range, right around 85ºF.
The second half of this week and this weekend will feel as though we’re living in a tropical monsoon climate zone, given the extended period of unsettled weather that we’ll be experiencing. Nearly every day over the course of the next 5-7 days, we’ll see a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing torrential rainfall, along with a very warm and humid airmass staying in place.
Rest of today – periods of clouds and sun, likely becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the first batch appearing to arrive around lunch. High temperatures will be around 90ºF but with the very humid air, heat indexes will be well into the upper-90s. This is the reason for there being a Heat Advisory in place until Saturday evening.
Friday – similar set up to today, periods of sun mixed in with mostly cloudy spans as well. Highs will again be around 90ºF, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The exact timing, placement, and intensity of the storms for Friday and this entire forecast period will be difficult to forecast with accuracy ahead of time.
This is due to the fact that many of the storms will be driven by subtle perturbations in the atmosphere moving around the periphery of a Bermuda High, and differential day time heating – hence why the chance for showers and thunderstorms is greatest in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze convergence boundaries are likely to serve as triggers for these storms. This Bermuda High is what has been and will be responsible for maintaining the oppressively hot and humid conditions. The tropical airmass it brings will mean that any storms that form will have the potential to tap into tropical moisture and produce very heavy rain that could lead to localized flash flooding.
Saturday – will be by far the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures forecast to reach into the mid-upper 90s. Heat indexes will be in the upper-90s to low-100s in some parts, likely triggering Excessive Heat Warnings. Once again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon hours.
Sunday – a cold front will approach the region on Sunday, which will lead to a more consistent and higher chance for organized thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will remain hot, in the low-90s.
Monday – low confidence for the forecast through Monday, as the timing of the cold front passage is uncertain. It may linger, which would result in yet more chances for rain. High temperatures should cool off to below 90ºF in the upper-80s.
