Tag Archives: nyc weekend weather

NYC Weekend Weather | Jun 25, 2015

Drought, NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , ,

The first half of this first full week of the summer felt very much like mid-summer, with hot, humid conditions and even some severe thunderstorms. The second half of this week, along with the weekend will feel a lot more like late spring, with Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning shaping up to be a washout.

Rest of today – pleasant, sunny skies, with a wind from the northwest, will yield comfortable high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Friday – an area of low pressure will be tracking eastward from the Midwest along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that will be positioned over southern New Jersey. The timing of this wave of low pressure will be overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Rain should end by noon Friday. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will only top out in the mid-70s.

North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for Friday at 8AM EDT
North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for Friday at 8AM EDT

Saturday – the respite from the rain will be short-lived. Saturday morning into the early afternoon should remain rain-free, though temperatures will again be suppressed in the low-mid 70s. Another, more potent area of low pressure will make its approach from the west during the day Saturday. The precipitation shield associated with this low should begin to fill in over the area beginning in the mid-afternoon hours. Periods of showers will continue falling, with moderate to heavy rain at times, throughout the remainder of the day and overnight Saturday.

North American Model high resolution simulated radar for Saturday at 2PM EDT
North American Model high resolution simulated radar for Saturday at 2PM EDT

Sunday – rain begins to taper off on Sunday from south to north as the center of the low pressure responsible for this storm moves to our northeast. Rain should end in the early afternoon hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the mid-70s. Rain from last week has put a dent in drought conditions across New York state, but areas of Central upstate New York and eastern Long Island could still use this rain. The downside is that it will put a damper on many outdoor plans for the first full weekend of the summer, and the first weekend after school ends here.

Monday – conditions improve on Monday as the low pressure continues to pull away. High temperatures should remain in the mid-70s with cloud cover decreasingly steadily.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 19, 2015

Drought, NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , ,

In contrast to last weekend, where Sunday was the better half, the reverse will be true this weekend. Remnants of Tropical Depression Bill will be moving over us on Sunday, bringing the potential for extended periods of showers and heavy rain. It is hoped that this much needed rain will put a dent in the persistent moderate drought conditions in the region.

Rest of today – there is a small chance for thunderstorms up until around lunchtime today, after which skies should gradually clear. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper-80s to near 90.

Saturday – high pressure will be shifting to the east, bringing in an onshore flow, keeping temperatures cooler in the upper-70s under partly sunny skies. Chances for rain will be increasing steadily through the evening such that by the overnight hours, periods of steady rain should be the norm.

Sunday – As referenced above, remnants of Tropical Depression Bill, still carrying tropical moisture, will be moving over the region. There is still some uncertainty as to whether the areas of heaviest rain will move further south and over the ocean, however, at this point it seems likely that Sunday will feature periods of steady rain, heavy at times. Rainfall probability and rainfall totals will drop precipitously from south to north, since the storm center is expected to track to our south. We could pick up as much as 1″-1.5″ of rain over Long Island, which would be a blessing since this area is still in the grip of moderate drought conditions. With clouds and rain, high temperatures should top out around 80.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Sunday
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Sunday
North American Model high resolution output for Sunday at 11AM EDT
North American Model high resolution output for Sunday at 11AM EDT 
Drought coverage in New York as of this week
Drought coverage in New York as of this week

Monday – conditions improve following the passage of the storm on Sunday, with high temperatures rebounding into the mid-upper 80s under mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 11, 2015

NYC, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We will likely be experiencing one of the hottest days of the year so far, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper-80s and into the low-90s in a few spots this afternoon. The warm weather continues through Saturday, when an area of high pressure over eastern Canada brings us some relief from the heat. In terms of the weekend, Sunday will definitely be the better day, with cooler temperatures, but dry weather.

Rest of today – temperatures are expected to top out right around 90 in the city. Increasingly humid air will lead to an uncomfortable feeling day. There is some potential for thunderstorms, some possibly marginally severe, occurring in the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the north and west. The orientation of the frontal boundary and primary storm vector will align in such a way that training of storms could occur, leading to the same locations getting hit by multiple storm cells.

In addition, an air quality alert is active today, with PM2.5 particle being the primary driver in pushing the Air Quality Index into the low 100s (unhealthy for sensitive groups).

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
Air quality forecast for today
Air quality forecast for today

Friday – the cold front that pushes through today with some possible thunderstorms will stall just south of the area, then push back north through the area as a warm front Friday. This means we will not get any respite from the heat, with highs again expected to be in the upper-80s to near 90, and another chance at more thunderstorms. There will be more sun Friday than today, but atmospheric dynamics are not expected to be supportive of severe weather.

Saturday – the warm front that passes through Friday comes back yet again as a cold front as it gets dragged along by the low pressure center moving to the northeast. This means yet another chance for thunderstorms, and ahead of that, warm temperatures remaining in the upper-80s.

Sunday – the weather finally settles down and stabilizes as a high pressure center builds to the north in behind the cold front passing on Saturday. This should lead to cooler temperatures and sunny skies for Sunday, when temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gfs_namer_084_1000_850_thick

 

Monday – another frontal boundary will be making its approach from the west on Monday, however, the timing of its approach is such that chances for rain will be low on Monday. Temperatures should again be comfortable around 80.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 4, 2015

Climate, Drought, Flooding, NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

We have struggled to reach normal temperatures this week, with plenty of rain and Wednesday as the only sunny break. We end this week with more cool, damp weather, before transitioning to warmer, drier conditions this weekend. Portions of the area received anywhere between 2-4″ of rain between Sunday night and Tuesday night, which will help improve drought conditions, however, these rainfall totals also led to flash flooding across large portions of the area.

Rest of today – cloudy, with a small chance for isolated light showers, cool with temperatures topping out only in the low-mid 60s, about 10ºF below normal for this time of year.

Atmospheric setup favoring the cool, cloudy, damp weather
Atmospheric setup favoring the cool, cloudy, damp weather

Friday – more clouds and cool weather, with this easterly onshore flow regime sticking around for one more day. High temperatures will again be only in the mid-60s, much below normal. There is a slightly higher chance Friday for scattered showers, but nothing like the soaking we got earlier this week.

Saturday – some improvement in conditions will take place Saturday as high pressure starts building from the west. Partly sunny skies may give way to more sun, with high temperatures warmer near 80.

gfs_namer_057_1000_850_thick

 

Sunday – high pressure moves to our east, allowing us to enjoy another pleasant, dry day, with high temperatures in the mid-70s.

Monday – a frontal system approaches the area. Ahead of the front, warmer air will flow in from the southwest, giving us temperatures at or above normal near 80ºF. As the front nears, thunderstorms and showers are possible across the region.

 

Arctic Jet Stream Slowing Leading to Increased Incidence and Duration of Extreme Weather? 

The massive quantities of snow that fell over the Northeast this past winter, the flooding rains over Texas last month, the enduring drought over California, and the asphalt-melting heatwave in India have all raised the question of what is causing this apparently increased incidence of long-duration extreme weather events. One possible explanation offered by researchers at Rutgers University is that the polar jet stream circling the Arctic has been slowing.

Jet streams are generated by two factors: the rotational energy of the Earth spinning on its axis, and the pressure gradient between two airmasses of varying temperatures. In the case of the polar jet circling the Arctic, rapid warming of the Arctic over the last couple decades has led to a decreased thermal and pressure gradient between air over the Arctic and air directly to the south. Researchers posit that this effect has led to a slowing of the polar jet stream. Since the jet stream is responsible for moving large (synoptic) scale weather patterns, any affect on its speed and orientation can have dramatic impacts for widespread regions of the world. In this case, the slowing polar jet stream is theorized as the mechanism behind the prolonged effects of the weather events mentioned above.

NYC Weekend Weather & 2015 Hurricane Season Forecast – May 28, 2015

Climate, NYC, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

Yesterday, portions of our area got some much needed rain from a round of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough. Today, we get another shot at rain and thunderstorms as the primary cold front actually pushes through. Behind that front, things cool off and dry out for Friday, before the humidity returns on Saturday. Things should stay dry Saturday, but we will see a more substantial chance at widespread rainfall Sunday with the passage of another cold front. Also of note, the National Hurricane Center released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below normal season.

Rest of today – clouds give way to sun with warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon. The atmospheric setup today is a bit more favorable to showers and thunderstorms being able to persist into NYC and western Long Island, unlike yesterday when these showers essentially died out as they hit the stable marine air layer near the coast. The exact location of where storms form and move into will still be tricky to pinpoint even at this time.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.

Friday – once the frontal boundary passes through later today, it will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for Friday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-upper 70s (still 5-10ºF above normal) under sunny skies.

Saturday – temperatures will be slightly warmer in the low-80s on Saturday with an increase in humidity as well. There could be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms later in the day as well.

Sunday – another cold front passes through the region Sunday, bringing with it the chance for more substantial and widespread showers. Temperatures will also cool off to around normal, in the low-mid 70s.

9jhwbg_conus

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Hurricane Center released its initial outlook for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season that officially starts on June 1st. As you’ll see from the graphic below, forecasters are calling for a below normal season with 6-11 named storms (tropical storms with sustained winds greater than 39mph). Of these named storms, forecasters think 3-6 have a chance to intensify into hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 74mph), and of those hurricanes 0-2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds greater than 111mph). Outlook_2015_FINAL

 

The primary reason for the 70% probability of a below normal season is the disruptive effect of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific, which is known to alter the pressure and air currents over the tropical Atlantic, dampening the formation of hurricanes. On the other hand, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with El Niño are expected to induce an above average Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon season. Read the full statement from the NHC here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 21, 2015

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

We’ve had a cloudier, cooler middle stretch of the week than expected, however, the payoff will be a splendid Memorial Day weekend. All three days of the long weekend look to be suitable for outdoor activity, with Sunday probably being the best day with warm highs in the mid-70s. There could be a chance of thunderstorms late Monday, and this will bear monitoring.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy today due to the influence of a low pressure system to the south, which will be moving out over the Atlantic today. There could be a few showers associated with this coastal low, but these would be primarily confined to NYC and Long Island. Otherwise, northeast winds associated with the low along with clouds overhead will act to suppress high temperatures in the low-60s.gfs_namer_024_1000_850_thick

 

Friday – showers are possible overnight from today into Friday morning, then clouds should clear in the morning, although they may reappear for later in the afternoon. Still, it will be a considerably sunnier and warmer day with high temperatures in the mid-70s.

Saturday – high pressure builds to our west giving us sunny skies, with the tradeoff being cooler temperatures and winds coming in from the north and northwest. Highs should top out in the mid-60s.

gfs_namer_048_1000_850_thick

 

Sunday – once the high above shifts to the east, clockwise flow around it will turn to the south and southwest, meaning we will get much warmer air coming into the region. High temperatures should be able to climb into the mid-upper 70s, especially if cloud cover is minimized.

gfs_namer_087_1000_850_thick

 

Memorial Day Monday – it looks as though a warm front will be trying to push its way through the area on Monday, so there may be some chance of thunderstorms or showers along this frontal boundary, but it’s not easy to pinpoint how wide the coverage of these would be, or what the duration is at this point. Outside of this chance for some precipitation, the rest of Monday should be pleasant with highs again in the mid-70s, albeit with more cloud cover than Sunday.

NYC Weekend Weather (Brooklyn Half Marathon) – May 14, 2015

Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , ,

This week ends off with pleasant, sunny, dry weather, and temperatures slightly above average in the low 70s. We get a chance at some much needed rain (there were actually brush fires yesterday, giving you an idea how dry it’s been), but the unfortunate part is that the rain will likely occur in periods on Saturday. Sunday will be better, as it doesn’t look like the rain sticks around that long.

Rest of today – a gorgeous spring day with high pressure in control, yielding a cloud-free and seasonable day with highs in the low 70s.

High pressure firmly entrenched over us today and tomorrow.
High pressure firmly entrenched over the region today and tomorrow.

Friday – expecting more of the same during the day, mostly sunny and mild with temperatures topping out again in the low 70s. Later Friday night, there could be a few showers and thunderstorms that develop as an approaching frontal system nears the area.

Saturday – lingering showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the morning, but it does not appear the entire day will be a washout. We’ll be in the warm sector which should allow for temperatures to approach 80 or slightly higher, depending on the cloud cover situation in the afternoon hours. Sadly, I know this is not what all you runners that are going to be doing the Brooklyn Half Marathon want to hear.

North American Model high resolution output for Saturday at 11AM, showing the possibility of showers.
North American Model high resolution output for Saturday at 11AM, showing the possibility of showers.

Sunday – at this point, it appears Sunday will be dry, with more clouds than sun, and temperatures remaining warm in the upper-70s. A blocking high pressure center over the Gulf of Maine should be enough to prevent rain from entering the area. gfs_namer_108_1000_850_thick

Monday – the high pressure depicted above will retreat eastward a bit, which would allow for a better chance of rain later Monday evening/night into Tuesday. During the day, conditions should be dry with partly sunny skies and a high near 70.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 8, 2015

NYC, Outside of NYC, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

Another splendid weekend is in store for us with warm temperatures in the upper-70s and near 80. Subtropical Storm Ana marks the first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It is not expected to bring us any direct impacts, however, it could bring moisture our way that could supplement a storm system forecast to pass through early next week.

Rest of today – early fog has burned off, skies have cleared, and temperatures should top out near 80. We have been under the persistent influence of a high pressure center that has been responsible for pumping in this warm, moist air from the south.

Saturday – clouds and sun, with sunny breaks more likely to appear near the coast in the afternoon. High temperatures should be a bit cooler in the mid-70s with the influence of clouds, however, any sunny breaks could easily shoot temperatures up a few degrees.

Sunday – once again, Sunday comes through as the best day of the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-80s.USA_East

Monday – clouds for the most part as a frontal boundary approaches from our north and west. High temperatures will still be quite mild with the influence of high pressure bringing southerly winds, expecting a high again near 80. Some chance for afternoon thunderstorms to develop as that frontal boundary nears.

Tuesday – probably our best shot at getting measurable rainfall as the aforementioned front passes through. Some left over moisture from Ana could work its way into this setup. Ahead of the front, temperatures should still rise into the upper-70s. It’ll be noticeably cooler for the second half of the week.

 

Subtropical Storm Ana

We have our first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season which doesn’t officially begin until June 1st. Subtropical Storm Ana developed out of a weak tropical disturbance off of Florida. This just goes to show, a tropical cyclone can form under the right conditions at any time of the year.

Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning - Geostationary Satellite Server
Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning – Geostationary Satellite Server

Subtropical Storm Ana fortunately does not have much time to organize and intensify before it makes landfall on the coast of the Carolinas. This should limit any serious damage, however, these areas will likely experience prolonged high winds, torrential rain, and coastal flooding.

Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana
Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 30, 2015

Climate, NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , ,

This week ends with clouds and some small chance of rain, but we’re in for a real sweet stretch of pleasant conditions and warmer than average temperatures from Sunday into early next week. In fact, we could be hitting 80 by Tuesday ahead of a cold front that could bring some thunderstorms with it, before we cool back down into the low-70s, which is still above normal.

Friday – due to the influence of a weak area of low pressure to our south, we will be seeing generally cloudy skies, with some very slight chance for scattered showers in the southernmost portions of the region. Temperatures will be moderate by northeast winds circulating counterclockwise around the low pressure to our south, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, just a few degrees below normal.

Saturday – as the aforementioned low pressure system slides off to the east over the Atlantic, clouds should gradually decrease. Temperatures will also rebound somewhat to around normal with a high in the mid-60s. However, there could be just enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple scattered showers or thunderstorms.

 

gfs_namer_081_1000_850_thickSunday – by this time, an area of high pressure will have developed over the Carolinas. This setup will favor the influx of a warm airmass from the Gulf of Mexico. Skies will clear, and temperatures will be noticeably warmer in the low 70s.

Monday – another gorgeous day to start the week, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-70s (10º above normal). Don’t say I told you so, but if there were a day to skip work, this would be it.

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.
Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.

Tuesday – although it will be even warmer Tuesday than it will be Monday, with highs possibly topping 80, it won’t be quite as pleasant since clouds will be building up ahead of a cold front that will bring our next chance at rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 27, 2015

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

We got a taste of what high temperatures should be like for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold front that has since moved through will set the stage for a return to below normal temperatures to start the weekend. With a low pressure center well to our east possibly spawning an inverted trough, there is some possibility for light rain/snow mix overnight Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday and we go into next week with about normal temperatures right around 50.

Rest of today – a noticeably colder night on tap with northwesterly winds in the wake of that aforementioned cold front allowing for low temperatures to dip to about freezing. Any lingering precipitation would manifest itself as rain/snow mix, with points further east having a higher chance of seeing wet snow.

Saturday – a much colder than average day, with high temperatures only hitting the mid-upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal. Cloudy, windy, and raw, with snow showers possible early (accumulation unlikely), and rain showers later.

We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.
We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.

Sunday – things clear up nicely as that low pressure keeps pulling off to the east. Temperatures rebound a bit into the low 40s, which is still well below average.

Monday – a continued warmup ahead of a dry cold front, with high temperatures topping out around 50 under increasingly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – a pleasant, seasonable day with high temperatures in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies as high pressure comes into control.

The next chance at precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving clipper system.

Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.
Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.