On the heels of the nor’easter earlier this week, we get another chance at snow tomorrow night into Friday, albeit of a much lighter intensity. Things get downright frigid after that with low temperatures Friday night in the single digits in the city, and wind chills below zero! The cold locks in over the weekend before we get another chance at precipitation to start off next week, continuing what has been an active weather pattern.
Thursday – clouds increase from west to east, with high temperatures hovering just above freezing. Precipitation begins overnight, and may include some rain/snow mix at the coast (all snow inland), but with minimal accumulations.
We get clipped by a clipper system Thursday night into Friday, with both NAM and GFS models pointing to us being on the periphery of the heavier precipitation.
Friday – light flurries continue into the morning Friday before ending, skies clear quickly while temperatures begin nosediving from a high in the mid-30s during the morning hours to the upper teens by sunset. Winds also pick up from the north and northwest as the departing clipper system from above deepens and the pressure gradient increases between it and a high pressure center over the Midwest. The combination of the cold temperatures and winds will likely induce wind chills below zero, so bundle up before you go out there Friday night.
Saturday – the deep freeze continues, with high temperatures only in the low 20s Saturday despite plenty of sunshine.
Sunday – another day of decent conditions, with clouds increase, but still cold with highs in the upper 20s. Sunday night into Monday, we get another shot at precipitation, although it’s a bit too early to nail down the specifics of this upcoming storm (whether it’ll be rain/snow, rain, or just snow, and how much).
The details are starting to come together for tomorrow’s Nor’easter. Over the past day, forecast models have been pointing to a faster moving system, such that the onset of precipitation is expected to begin overnight tonight, with the bulk of the precipitation ending by early afternoon tomorrow. This storm is expected to throw a little bit of everything our way tomorrow, making for a nasty day overall, with snow changing over to freezing rain or sleet, then perhaps a period of plain rain, followed by a possibility of a rain snow mix.
What to Expect
Snow, moderate to heavy at times, beginning overnight tonight. Winds picking up from southeast, then eventually moving to the northeast and north during the day Saturday. Snow transitioning to a period of possibly freezing rain or sleet during the morning hours, then a period of rain around midday and a possible rain/snow mix towards late afternoon before precipitation gradually tapers off later in the evening. High temperature right around or slightly above freezing.
Forecast Storm Track
Forecast models are in generally good agreement that the center of this Nor’easter will be passing just inside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark sometime in the late afternoon Saturday (approx 4-5PM).
Without a high pressure center to the north supplying cold air to the area, this setup will allow for enough warm, moist air to circulate around the eastern side of the low pressure center to give us a mix of precipitation throughout the day. The extent to which snow can be sustained will be strongly dependent on dynamical cooling, and how quickly cold air can be pulled in on the western side of the low pressure center.
Storm track forecast from the Weather Prediction Center, with clusters indicating forecast positions of individual ensemble members.
Snowfall Forecast
As you can see below, the probability of more than 4″ of snow is quite low for coastal areas, especially Eastern Long Island, where mainly rain is forecast. The heaviest totals (no more than 5″, most likely) will be concentrated well north and east of NYC where temperatures are expected to be cold enough to sustain all snow for longer. Because the forward speed of the storm is now predicted to be faster, the chances of NYC getting any significant snowfall (even 2″) is considerably lower. Most of the city is in a swath of between 30-40% chance of getting more than 2″ of snow.
Probability of greater than 2″ of snowfallProbability of greater than 4″ of snowfall
Ice Accumulation
The probability of us receiving a trace, but a measurable amount of ice from freezing rain is quite a bit higher than the probability of receiving snow, with most of the city in the 40-60% range.
Probability of ice accumulation greater than .01″
Sunday – the storm will be long gone by Sunday, and we’re expecting to hit highs in the mid-upper 30s.
Monday – there is some potential for a round of all snow on Monday, but forecast models have not been in good consensus on how this will play out. A clipper system is expected to pass through, though it is unclear whether this system will spawn a secondary low offshore. In the latter case, we could see some significant snow, while if it’s just a clipper, we probably won’t see more than a couple inches.
All eyes turn towards the imminent Nor’easter that will be bringing significant winter weather impacts to the NYC metro region. Many variables remain unresolved that could affect the eventual outcome, but at this time, it looks like we’re in for a nasty combination of freezing rain, rain, and snow during the day Saturday. At present, forecasts call for somewhere between 2-4″ of snow in the city along with some ice accumulation. Precipitation should fall as all snow north and west of NYC, however, overall accumulation should be slightly less than in the city itself since the most intense precipitation will remain near coastal areas.
Friday – we get a pleasant, sunny, and slightly above average day with high temperatures in the mid-upper 30s.
Saturday – a tricky forecast for Saturday. What we know for sure, with different forecast models in relatively close agreement, is that an area of low pressure now forming over the Texas Gulf Coast will track over the Southeast, and then offshore of North Carolina by Friday night/early Saturday. Once the low moves offshore, it will rapidly intensify, and then track right on or very close to the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark by Saturday afternoon/early evening.
The uncertain part about this scenario has to do with the thermal profiles in place. With no high pressure over us or to the north pumping in cold Canadian air, the depth of cold (sub-freezing) air will be relatively shallow.
As the Nor’easter approaches us, the cyclonic flow around its center will wrap in some relatively warmer air in from the ocean and points south. This makes for a complicated picture – with warmer air aloft (see animation below) during parts of the day, and below freezing air nearer to the surface throughout points in the day, the recipe is set for at least some periods of freezing rain – precipitation that falls as rain, and then freezes on contact with a sub-freezing surface.
During the middle portion of the day, temperatures should be warm enough at the surface to support plain rain for some time, before transitioning back into freezing rain, rain/snow mix, perhaps with a period of all snow before tapering off Saturday evening.
NAM output of temperature profiles at about 4,800 feet between 10AM and 7PM Saturday. Notice the light pink indicating temperatures between 0ºC and 10ºC, which only gives way to below freezing temperatures (light blue, indicating 0ºC to -10ºC) later in the time frame. The center of the Nor’easter is located within the middle of the set of concentric rings you see near NYC.
Deviations in the storm track to the east would result in more cold air being pulled in from the action of northerly winds on the western side of the low pressure center’s cyclonic flow (less freezing rain/rain, more snow), while deviations of the track west would result in warmer air being in place (less snow, more rain). So, even a slight adjustment in the storm track could alter the thermal profiles, and subsequently what kind of precipitation we see.
Sunday – temperatures overnight Saturday will be below freezing, which would allow anything that fell and melted to refreeze. Things do clear up Sunday, with highs about average in the mid-30s, and with clouds diminishing.
Monday – there is a chance for yet another round of mainly snow, potentially heavy, as another coastal storm is possible. Highs will be close to the freezing mark, making this an all snow event if it should pan out.
This weekend will feature about normal temperatures for mid-December, with a small chance of rain/snow on Sunday. Relatively quiet weather during the weekend will give way to an active weather pattern for the first half of next week, with a robust storm system arriving Christmas Eve (all rain, sadly, so no white Christmas for us here in NYC).
Saturday – high pressure currently in control of the weather will erode as it moves east. Clouds cover will increase with high temperatures around 40.
Sunday – easterly winds off the ocean in the wake of high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada will bring some slight chance for precipitation. The lower atmosphere is fairly dry, and is not primed with moisture for precipitation. If precipitation does materialize, temperature profiles are low enough that some snow flakes could be seen, but the overall impact will be negligible. High temperatures will be in the low 40s with cloudy skies.
GFS model output for Sunday, 12/21/2014
Monday – a significant storm system will be approaching our region from the Central Plains. Forecast models point to a primary low pressure center over the interior of the country while a secondary low forms along the coast. Ahead of this storm system, some scattered showers could pass over the area Monday. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy day with high temperatures in the mid-40s.
Tuesday – coverage of precipitation will increase on Tuesday as that secondary low pressure center draws closer to the area. Warmer, marine air will be in place before a warm front passes over. This should ensure that temperature profiles remain warm enough to preclude the possibility of snow. Temperatures may rise to as high as the 50 degree mark Tuesday.
This early-mid week storm will cause some travel headaches for Christmas, but fortunately, it does appear the majority of precipitation will be in the form of rain.
We got a break from the arctic chill briefly today, but temperatures will fall again for Friday as a cold front currently sitting on top of us passes through. High pressure builds in Friday allowing for sunny conditions, but temperatures will still not be that warm. A big warm up is in store for the second half of the weekend and we could be hitting a rainy low-mid 60s by Monday.
Friday – following the passage of a cold front sitting over us now, skies will clear up overnight tonight and allow for excellent radiational cooling, so low temperatures will be generally in the upper 20s in the city. High pressure works its way in Friday, but with the influence of a cool west wind, the high temperature will probably still only be near 40.
Saturday – another nice day, with plenty of sun, and temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-40s, but the big warm up won’t occur until Sunday.
Sunday – a low pressure center with its origins over the Texas Panhandle will be moving northeast towards our area. A warm front will rotate around in front of it, allowing for the influx of a comparatively very warm and moist airmass into the area. The chance of rain will increase steadily along with cloud cover throughout the day Sunday such that by the late evening, showers will be likely. High temperatures should be in the mid-50s.
Significant warm up ahead for the latter half of the weekend going into early next week
Monday – as the forecast map from the Weather Prediction Center below shows, the low pressure system from the map above is forecast to intensify significantly as it pulls northeast. This is a classic, mature mid-latitude cyclone with an occluded low and front (purple line extending from the center of the low), a cold front, and a warm front. The warm front will rotate through first, allowing us to get into the warm sector, where there will be plenty of energy and moisture for rain, which could occur in periods throughout Monday. High temperatures will be balmy in the mid-60s.
Thanksgiving Storm?
The chance of a significant Thanksgiving storm is decreasing, though not completely nil. Once the cold front above passes, we’ll see a return to cooler temperatures in the low 50s. It’s worth mentioning that the set up behind the cold should once again favor lake effect snow, so if you’re traveling to any of the usual snow belt areas around the Great Lakes, be prepared.
You can feel the chill in the air now. This cold will continue Saturday, but we’ll get a slight warmup Sunday and Monday ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the southwest. Behind that low pressure system, we get a reinforcing blast of arctic air that will be entrenched through the rest of next week. I’m also monitoring the potential for a Nor’easter just in time for the busy travel day Wednesday and through Thanksgiving.
Saturday – a cold day on tap despite ample sunshine. High temperatures will be generally in the lower 40s. There’ll be a noticeable northwest wind making it feel like it’s in the 30s.
Sunday – a milder day with warm air flowing in ahead of a low pressure system, but by warm, I mean highs only around 50. Clouds will increase throughout the day and there could be some rain Sunday night.
Monday – rain will be falling for the majority of the day, with highs in the city in the mid-40s. Monday night gets interesting with the potential for a rain/snow mix in the city, and all snow in interior regions north and west. Depending on the timing of the main slug of precipitation with this system, we could actually get some accumulating snow in the city also (the later in the night the main body of precipitation falls, the colder it will be, and the better the conditions for snow).Tuesday – cold air rushes back in behind this storm on Monday and we drop back into high temperatures hovering in the low 40s.
Potential Thanksgiving Nor’easter?
In looking ahead at the long-term GFS model output, I’m noting the possibility for a possible high-impact Nor’easter that would be timed to coincide with the busiest travel day right before and then during Thanksgiving. Of course, this far out, there’s still considerable uncertainty to the forecast, so this scenario could not pan out, or the storm track could be nowhere close to where it needs to be to produce a high-impact Nor’easter. Still, it’s worth watching, as it could be a major headache for folks if it does materialize.
A gloomy looking Friday will give way to a sunny though cool weekend. Next week starts off with near normal temperatures and dry conditions, but get ready for a blast of Arctic air later in the week with high temperatures falling into the mid-40s by the end of next week.
Saturday – cool but sunny to start. High temperatures will be in the low 50s. Clouds build in advance of a passing cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Sunday – a moisture starved cold front will approach from the west, and precipitation is not expected in NYC, though could see some spotty showers in interior regions. High temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-50s.
Monday – high temperatures again in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.
Tuesday – another good day weather-wise with highs in the mid-upper 50s and mostly sunny skies.
We will feel the effects of a strong cold front next Wednesday. A Canadian Arctic airmass will work its way into the region following this frontal passage, leading temperatures to plummet down into the 40s!
