Tag Archives: nyc wx

NYC Weather Update – Nov 6, 2017

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , ,

After a brief warm spell, we are looking at a full week ahead of average to below average temperatures. A distinct fall feel has come just as we ended Daylight Saving Time. The best chances for rain are at the beginning of the week.

Rest of today – high temperatures into the mid-60s ahead of an advancing cold front. This cold front will carry with it the chance for some showers later today. Mostly cloudy otherwise.

Tuesday – once the cold front passes us, winds will turn rather quickly northwest, bringing much cooler air into the region. High temperatures will likely be in the low-50s with partly sunny skies.

Wednesday – this frontal boundary from early in the week will stall out south of us. This will allow multiple shortwaves to ride up the frontal boundary, giving us a slight chance of rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. High temperatures will again be on the cool side, only in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

Thrusday – a tad bit warmer, with a mix of clouds and sun and high temperatures in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 3, 2017

NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , ,

This weekend’s weather will be a tale of contrasting temperatures and airmasses. The week ends with warm temperatures more than 10°F above normal. A cold front sweeps through and fall returns for the weekend itself, but another warm up takes place leading into Monday. Also, Daylight Saving Time ends at 2AM Sunday.

Rest of today – increasing clouds for the day. Warm with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Yesterday, a warm front pushed through, putting us in the warm sector associated with a low pressure now over northeastern Quebec.

Saturday – quite a different feel tomorrow once this cold front below moves through the area. Winds will become onshore from the east, bring much cooler air. High temperatures are expected to top out only in the upper-50s with sunny skies (around normal for this time of year).

Sunday – there’s a chance of showers overnight Saturday into Sunday associated with the next storm system to impact the area. An advancing warm front is expected to bring light, stratiform rain ahead of it. Temperatures will be warmer, in the mid-60s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – the familiar pattern of warm front followed by cold front continues Monday. We’ll again be in the warm sector with temperatures peaking at about 70°F. Rain should accompany the passage of this cold front.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 30, 2017

NYC, Weather Update, , , , ,

Crisp fall weather is in place for the start of this work week on the heels of yesterday’s strong storm. Winds abate today but temperatures turn noticeably colder tomorrow. A gradual warming trend is anticipated later this week with highs pushing back towards 70°F.

Rest of today – as the low pressure responsible for yesterday’s storm continues to pull away from us to the north-northeast, the pressure gradient will relax and result in lower wind speeds. These winds will bring with them a much cooler Canadian airmass (via cold advection) and high temperatures should be in the mid-50s.

Map of analyzed values of cold advection (transfer of heat, or in this case, lack of heat). The blues and purples indicate areas of increasing intensity of cold advection, where temperatures are falling by as much as 2ºF an hour. The causative agent of the cold advection in the Northeast are the winds associated the departing storm.

Tuesday – sunny skies, a sparkling fall day with high temperatures in the mid-50s again.

Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

Thursday – a return to warmer temperatures in the mid-60s with us in the warm sector between a retreating warm and advancing cold front.

NYC Special Weather Update: Tropical Depression Eighteen – Oct 28, 2017

NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, , , , , , , , , , ,

The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of Isla de Juventud in Cuba. The formation of TD Eighteen has implications on the forecast for Sunday’s storm as a complex scenario is set to unfold.

Impacts: forecasters are anticipating a high wind, and heavy rain event coming up. Storm total rainfall of 2-4″ and possibly higher could lead to urban and small stream flooding. The amount of rainfall over a short period of time has led our local forecast office to issue flash flood watches for much of the region. Winds will pick up as well, backing from the south to southeast, east, and eventually to north and northwest. Wind gusts could become a problem for local airports and for poor travel conditions in general. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.

Timing: Winds are already increase today, and cloud cover will do so as well as the day progresses. Chances for rain will increase in the overnight hours, probably after 2-3AM. The strongest wind gusts will actually come on the back side of the storm going into Monday as it intensifies and the pressure gradient increases.

Discussion: a complicated set up is unfolding with a longwave trough (on the left) draping from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Meixco interacting with a developing closed low over the Tennessee Valley, and TD Eighteen. TD Eighteen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm, which would be named Phillippe if it did form. The effect of this will be to provide a conveyor of warm and moist air from the tropics up to our area. This will help feed the developing non-tropical low forming over the southeast. This low will become the primary rainmaker, and the tropical system (whether a depression or storm) will eventually merge with it. Plenty of instability to fuel a growing storm! The pressure gradient will tighten as this storm strengthens and departs eastward, and that will be the reason for a gusty start to the work week.

 

NYC Weather Update – Oct 23, 2017

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , , ,

The warm spell we’ve enjoyed over the last week and longer will finally come to a close mid-week this week. Before that, we will receive a round of much needed moderate to heavy rain in conjunction with the approach and passage of a frontal system. Behind this front, as winds shift to the northwest, temperatures will cool into a more seasonable range for this time of year.

Rest of today – mild, partly sunny with clouds increasing, high temperatures in the low-70s.

Tuesday – we’ll still be in the warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front. Temperatures remain mild in the low-70s, however, we should expect several rounds of moderate to heavy rain during the day. As the pressure gradient increases with proximity to an advancing cold front, stiff south winds in the 20 mph range with stronger gusts could occur. Rain continues and increases in intensity overnight. Windy conditions continue. Thunderstorms are possible with some of the strongest lift and convection close to the cold front. We could pick up 2-3 inches in places by the end of this event, as this long period of southerly winds will have ushered in a tropical airmass rich with moisture.

Wednesday – the cold front doesn’t actually push through until late Wednesday. Lingering showers could occur in the morning prior to the frontal passage. High temperatures should still be fairly mild, near 70°F.

Thursday – winds will shift to the north and west following the passage of this vigorous cold front. Behind the front, temperatuers will be about 10°F cooler, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 20, 2017

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

High pressure continues to exert its influence over the region through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will be quite mild and about 10°F above normal for this time of year. Ideal viewing conditions exist for the Orionid meteor showers.

Rest of today – sunny and mild with highs in the low-mid 70s despite northwest winds.

Saturday – similar setup as today. Sunny with highs in the low-mid 70s. Winds shift to the south as high pressure moves east and offshore.

Thanks to this persistent area of high pressure over the eastern US, we’ve a long bout of sunny and dry weather that continues through the weekend.

Sunday – mild and mostly sunny with high temperatures again in the low-mid 70s.

Monday – increasing clouds and slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. We’ll be in the warm sector ahead of an advancing, slow-moving frontal boundary. This feature will bring our next and much needed chance at precipitation into Tuesday.

Orionid meteor showers
These will be peaking over the weekend. Look towards the constellation Orion during the overnight hours with best conditions at around 2AM. Astronomers are expecting a peak of 15-20 meteors per minute radiating from this constellation. The meteors are actually fragments of Halley’s comet, which approaches perihelion (closest pass to the sun) next in 2061. If you’re lucky enough to get away from light pollution, you won’t have any moonlight to contend with either. Sky conditions will be ideal this weekend.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 9, 2017

NYC, Rain, Weekend, , , , , , ,

After a span of several weeks with minimal rainfall, we’re running into a week that will be defined by two low pressure systems and unsettled, rainy weather. Temperature will finally cool off from the summer-like warmth we’ve recently enjoyed to more seasonable, fall temperatures.

Rest of today – cloudy, periods of rain, some heavy at times. High temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Breezy with winds 15-20 mph. Remnants of Nate are passing through the area today, bringing tropical moisture and rain along with a deepening pressure gradient and the windy conditions.

Tuesday – best day of the first half of this week, mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s in the wake of the storm system passing today.

Wednesday – a backdoor cold front pushes through overnight into Wednesday. Winds will shift to the easterly direction and onshore with high pressure to the north. The result will be much cooler temperatures in the upper-60s or just about 70°F, which is about normal for this time of year. There will also be a chance for rain and increasingly cloudy skies.

Thursday – similar feel to Wednesday with clouds, chances for rain, easterly winds, but cooler with temperatures in the mid-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Columbus Day – Oct 6, 2017

NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.

Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.

Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.

 

Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.

Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.

 

Tropical Storm Nate

Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.

 

NYC Weather Update – Oct 2, 2017

NYC, Weather Update, , , ,

October gets started with a decidedly fall feel, but temperatures do warm up later in the week before returning back to normal over the weekend. High pressure is in control for basically the entire forecast period, resulting in sunny conditions each day.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures around normal about 70ºF.

Tuesday – a touch warmer, high temperatures in the low-mid 70s and sunny.

Wednesday – warming trend continues with high temperatures rising into the upper-70s as high pressure moves to the southeast. Sunny skies.

Thursday – summer returns briefly with high temperatures well into the 80s and sunny conditions again.

NYC Weekend Weather – Sep 28, 2017

NYC, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

This weekend kicks off a stretch of cooler, drier, true-to-form autumn weather after last week’s decidedly summer-like days. A low pressure center over the Great Lakes will slide southeast towards the region to start the weekend. This could scattered showers and thunderstorms. Aside from that, conditions will be dry and fair for the remainder of the forecast period.

Rest of today – high temperatures right about 70°F with sunny skies, much drier feel to the day.

Saturday – scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially early. High temperatures in the upper-60s, cooler in spots that see rain.

Sunday – sunny, high temperatures again around 70°F. High pressure from Canada behind the low pressure above will keep things dry and cool for much of the next week.

Monday – slightly warmer, high temperatures in the low-70s, again mostly sunny.