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NYC Snowstorm Update – Feb 08, 2017

February 8, 2017Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Updatecoastal low, coastal storm, cold front, heavy snow, high pressure, low pressure, new york city snowstorm, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc snowstorm, nyc wx, snow, snowstorm, winter storm, winter storm warningLei Zhao

We’re in for a wild ride over the course of the next 24 hours as our weather goes from possibly record-breaking warmth to what is expected to be the most significant winter storm so far this season. Significant snow accumulations over 6″ and possibly as much as a foot are expected across the region, resulting in a winter storm warning for all of the NYC metro region.

Timing

Judging by the amount of sun we’re getting, temperatures will likely hit record-breaking levels in the low-60s in the city today. They will drop steadily to around 50ºF by the evening commute as a cold front pushes through and Arctic air flows in from the north. Overnight, temperatures will continue falling rapidly to around freezing. Precipitation is expected to begin around 3-4AM Thursday here in the city and continue through the early afternoon. Unfortunately, the timing of the heaviest precipitation does look to bring significant impacts to the morning commute.

North American High Resolution simulated radar 1km resolution, tomorrow at 8AM.

Impacts

Rain/snow mix to start, but by the morning rush, expecting all snow through the region. Heavy snow at times possibly reaching 1-2″/hr. Some thundersnow could occur. Hazardous travel conditions during the morning rush as plows will have trouble keeping roads clear with traffic and the moderate to heavy snow. Gusty winds could produce near-blizzard conditions with low visibility.

Snowfall Totals

Here are some graphics for snowfall totals from our local National Weather Service Forecast office. The general forecast calls for 6″-12″ in the city. The exact extent of totals will depend, as is generally the case with this type of storm, on where the heaviest snow bands set up and for how long they sit over an any given area.

Probabilities for 4″+ and 6″+ of snow respectively

Discussion

An shortwave that’s made its way rapidly across the country from the Pacific will move along the cold front that is pushing through today. As it does so, it will spawn a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic that will strengthen rapidly as it moves over open water. At the same time, plenty of cold air will wrap around the deepening coastal low with high pressure to the west. This will put in place all the ingredients for a classic coastal winter storm for this area. The only thing keeping this storm from being a major blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 2 feet is the fairly quick pace that it’s expected to move at.

This coastal storm will drive the expected heavy snows tomorrow. Its track is expected to take it just outside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a spot that from a climatological perspective has translated to heavy snow storms for this region.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 06, 2017

February 6, 2017NYC, Rain, Snow, Weather Updatecold front, low pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, warm front, weatherLei Zhao

The weather story of this week will be some wild temperature swings as we encounter two storm systems Wednesday and Thursday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny to clear skies with high temperatures topping out in the low-40s.

Tuesday – temperatures start to warm up with an approaching warm front. A low pressure system north of us will pull lots of warm, moist air ahead of it as it moves through the region. High temperatures are expected to hit the low-50s with periods of rain throughout the day.

Wednesday – overnight, temperatures will actually rise due to the influence of warm air flowing into the area following the passage of the aforementioned warm front. Rain should end by the morning commute, giving us a chance to break some record high temperatures in the area. High temperatures are expected to range in the upper-50s to the low-60s with any significant breaks of sun.

Thursday – the warmup does not last. As the low pressure system above continues to track northeast across Quebec, a secondary low pressure center will form along a trailing cold front attached to this first low. High temperatures will only be in the low-30s, almost 30ºF cooler than Wednesday. Overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, it should get cold enough for the secondary low pressure center to spark some accumulating snows in the city. Snowfall totals are expected to be light, 1-3″ max in the city.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 30, 2017

January 30, 2017NYC, Snow, Weather Updateclipper, clipper system, cold front, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, weatherLei Zhao

As we open February, temperatures will be appropriately cold and seasonable for this time of year. We have a chance for some light snow accumulation Tuesday with a passing clipper system. Looking into the long-term, some forecast models are indicating the possibility of a couple coastal storms that could be snowmakers next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures peaking in the mid-30. Steady northwest wind around 15mph will produce wind chills below freezing.

Tuesday – high again in the mid-30s, but with snow expected in particular in the afternoon hours with an advancing clipper system and cold front. Snow accumulations are not expected to exceed 1 inch at this time.

Wednesday – brief rebound in temperatures into the mid-40s, with skies beginning to clear during the day.

Thursday – temperatures drop back to seasonable levels in the mid-30s.

More Significant Snows Ahead?

Looking ahead at Monday after the Superbowl, there appears to be a chance for a more significant snowmaker in the form of a coastal low. The forecast on this will become more clear as the week draws to a close.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 27, 2017

January 27, 2017Climate, Drought, NYC, Weather Update, Weekenddrought, low pressure, new york city weather, new york city weekend weather, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, snowLei Zhao

The weekend period will see a gradual return to seasonably cold temperatures, a departure from the long stretch of above normal warmth we’ve seen the last week or so. A series of weak disturbances will move through the area, but these are not expected to bring much in the way of precipitation.

Rest of today – breezy with west winds of 20mph. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-40s. A weak disturbance brings a chance of snow flurries, but no accumulation is expected.

Saturday (Lunar New Year) – still above normal with high temperatures in the mid-40s and partly sunny. Not as windy as today, but with a strong low located over Labrador, westerly winds in the 15-20mph range will persist.

Sunday – high temperatures start to fall back to around 40°F. More clouds than sun.

Monday – colder, with high temperatures in the upper-30s and partly sunny skies.

Drought Update

The 1-2″ of rain we picked up during this past week’s Nor’easter, while beneficial, did little to change the drought picture as compared to last week.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 23, 2017

January 23, 2017Flooding, Noreaster, NYC, Storms, Weather Updatecoastal flooding, coastal low, coastal storm, flooding, high pressure, high winds, low pressure, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc weather, nyc wx, weatherLei Zhao

Main weather headline to start the week will be a potent and slow-moving coastal storm bringing a variety of hazards to the region later today through tomorrow morning. This storm is the same one responsible for this weekend’s deadly tornado outbreak down south. Conditions improve dramatically towards mid-week.

Rest of today – a flood watch, coastal flood advisories, and high wind warning are in effect mostly through tomorrow morning. Cloudy with high temperatures steady around 40°F. Winds continue to increase throughout the day as a strengthening coastal low approaches and the pressure gradient between it and a high pressure center over Quebec tightens. A low-level jet will enhance winds. Sustained east and northeast winds of 30-40mph with gusts between 50-60mph will become commonplace late today and overnight. The strongest winds will occur closest to the coast.

Along with the strong winds, periods of heavy rain will bring the potential for 1-3″ of precipitation, which could lead to minor to moderate urban and small stream flooding. Timing of the onset of rain will be around 3pm this afternoon.

The persistent and strong northeast winds off the water will contribute to minor to moderate coastal flooding. This will be exacerbated during a couple of high tide cycles.

High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar output for 3PM this afternoon

The storm approaching spans the better portion of the entire East Coast

Tuesday – rain and wind abate during the day, tapering off by the afternoon. High temperatures about the same as today in the low-40s.

Wednesday – as the coastal storm continues to pull away, temperatures rebound and mostly sunny skies return. High temperatures anticipated around 50ºF.

Thursday – another nice day with high temperatures in the upper-40s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 10, 2017

January 10, 2017NYC, Rain, Snow, Weather Updatenew york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, weather, wintry mixLei Zhao

The latter half of this week will bring welcome relief from a period of below average temperatures. Temperatures will rise well into the 50s by the end of the week. Winter returns for the weekend as temperatures fall back to seasonal levels.

Rest of today – there are some light snow showers far west of the city. Some of this might make it to the city, with a chance for snow and wintry mix and a high around 40ºF.

Wednesday – overnight, temperatures barely drop, while a storm system moves through. A chance of wintery mix transitions to all rain by daybreak. Rain ends by the early morning hours and

Thursday – a second storm system moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, with high temperatures rising well into the mid-50s. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail.

Friday – more clouds than sun, with high temperatures dropping back a bit to about 50ºF.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 19, 2016

December 19, 2016NYC, Rain, Weather Updatehigh pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, weatherLei Zhao

We leave behind wild temperature swings that occurred the last few days as high pressure maintains steady and sunny conditions for most of this week. High temperatures should run just a few degrees above average, with some chance for passing showers on Thursday.

Rest of today – cold with below average high temperatures in the low-30s.

Tuesday – slightly warmer, but still below average with high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Wednesday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Thursday – a chance for showers as a weak storm system passes by, with a high again in the mid-40s and mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 29, 2016

November 29, 2016Climate, Drought, NYC, Rain, Weather Updatecold front, drought, low pressure, new york city drought, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc drought, nyc weather, nyc wx, rainLei Zhao

It’s the tale of two very different weather regimes this week. Starting the week, we have mild, rainy conditions accompanying a couple storm systems. This rain is still desperately needed as a drought continues to grip the area. Later in the week, things dry out, but temperatures also move in a downward trend back below normal.

Rest of today – mild with a high temperature near 60°F, rainy, with rain moderate to heavy at times. Rain tapering off by about 7PM this evening.

Wednesdaay – a complex set of of frontal boundaries move through the area tomorrow in association with a low pressure developing over the Great Lakes. In terms of sensible weather, expect a brief pause from the rain early Wednesday, but another round of overrunning rain that could then lead to a line of stronger storms with gusty winds late in the day as the cold front pictured below pushes through. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures again around 60°F.

Thursday – becoming sunny with high temperatures still holding up in the upper-50s.

Friday – cooler with high temperatures dropping to around normal in the low-50s with sun and clouds.

Drought Still Not Abating

Despite plenty of rain recently, large deficits built up from earlier in the year are still hard to beat, with many areas still in a moderate to severe drought in the NYC region.

NYC Thanksgiving Weather Update – Nov 22, 2016

November 23, 2016NYC, Rain, Weather Updatecold front, new york city thanksgiving weather, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc thanksgiving wx, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, thanksgiving weather, weatherLei Zhao

Winds finally abate after today. Temperatures rebound later this week, but remain below normal for the forecast period. There is a chance for rain on Thanksgiving Day, as well as Friday. Looking ahead into the first week of December, there could be a couple storms rolling our way.

Today – sunny, less windy, but still cold with temperatures again only in the low-40s. A good day for travel.

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) – cloudy, warmer with a high near 50°F. There is a chance for rain, but that the timing of the rain favors the afternoon after the parade ends. What rain there might be will be light. Winds also will be light, so those balloons at the Macy’s Day Parade should have no problems.

Friday – rain chances persist, along with temperatures warming to near normal in the low-50s as warmer air flows in ahead of a cold front from the southwest.

Saturday – the frontal system affecting the area Thursday and Friday finally will clear the area. Showers may pop off early, but the skies should slowly clear as temperatures remain around normal in the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 18, 2016

November 18, 2016NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, high pressure, low pressure, new york city weather, new york city weekend weather, new york city weekend wx, new york city wx, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc weekend wx, nyc wx, pressure gradientLei Zhao

An extended period of well above normal temperatures comes to an abrupt end this weekend as a strong cold front pushes through overnight Saturday into Sunday. On the back side of this frontal boundary, temperatures will average around 15ºF lower than we’ve seen this week. If you like it mild, go out and enjoy this weather before Saturday!

Rest of today – sunny and mild with high temperatures in the low-60s.

Saturday – another mild day on tap with lots of sun and a high around 60ºF. Chances for rain increase into the overnight hours, at this point peaking around midnight. Winds will pick up first from the southeast ahead of the cold front, then to the west. Sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts over 30mph are possible.

Sunday – rain chances taper off but winds remain in the 20-30mph with strong gusts up to 40mph. High temperatures will be significantly colder than we’ve gotten used to and below normal in the mid-40s. A tight pressure gradient sets up between the departing low and a high pressure center to the southwest, blasting us with cold Canadian air as a result.

Monday – clouds diminishing gradually, winds still pretty breezy, and a high only in the low-40s.

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region