The beginning of the week will see much needed rain, and then transition to sunny and above average weather. Drought conditions have improved in New York State overall, though most of the improvement has been concentrated upstate.
Rest of today/overnight – rain begins to move in to the area overnight. Because of the very dry air that was in place to end the weekend, it will take some time before the moisture associated with a coastal low can saturate the air. It appears the most likely time for when heavier/steadier rains begin is around 4AM.
Tuesday – rain, moderate to heavy at times in the morning. Northeast winds around the coastal low responsible for the rain will keep temperatures cooler than normal in the low-50s with cloudy skies. Rain chances diminish substantially in the afternoon.
Wednesday – a small chance for lingering drizzle on Wednesday as temperatures rebound back into the upper-50s. Clouds will be on the decrease.
Thursday – sunny, with a high near 60ºF. High pressure takes over to to end the week.
Drought Improves Upstate, Still Severe in and Around NYC.
Recent rains have improved the drought situation for many portions of upstate New York, and also some areas of the city and Long Island. However, as you can see from the image below, much of the area is still gripped by severe drought.
After some needed rain yesterday, we move back into a pattern of dry weather that will be in place until at least mid-week next week. Temperatures will be the coldest this season on Saturday behind a cold front, then rebound to above normal for the remainder of the period.
Rest of today – clearing skies with temperatures dropping into the mid-40s overnight. Winds pick up from the northwest.
Friday (Veteran’s Day) – high temperatures in the upper-50s. Clouds increasing with an approaching cold front, but no rain is expected due to lack of enough moisture. Windy, with a northwest wind 15-25mph.
Saturday – overnight lows Friday will be the coldest yet for the city right above freezing. Temperatures do not rebound much Saturday even with lots of sun. Highs may not even hit 50ºF. Winds abate somewhat, but still in the 10-15mph range.
Sunday – this high pressure will slide towards the southeast by Sunday. Return flow around the western edge of the high pressure will shift winds more to the west/southwest allowing warmer air in and high temperatures around 60ºF.
The 2016 election will soon be behind us. Regardless of who wins, we’re in for a general cooling trend later this week. We have a shot at rain this Wednesday although chances are not too high.
Rest of today – seasonable, sunny, highs in the mid-50s.
Tuesday (Election Day) – warmer, with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s. The start of the day will be chilly though, due to clear and calm skies and excellent radiational cooling overnight. If you’re lining up early to vote, expect temperatures in the mid-40s.
Milder air will get swept up around the high pressure center over TN/NC ahead of the advancing cold front
Wednesday – mostly cloudy with a chance of showers increasing during the day. Not expecting anything by way of heavy rain. High temperatures around 60ºF.
Thursday – skies clearing to mostly sunny with high temperatures in the seasonable upper-50s.
There’s nothing scary with our weather this week in New York City. We’re looking at a cool start to the week, followed by a gradual warmup with a chance at rain towards the later part of this week. We received a couple rounds of drenching rains last week and yesterday, which will help the drought conditions somewhat, but it’s still not nearly enough to make up the deficit we’ve had this year.
Rest of today – clear, with a high in the low-50s after the passage of the cold front that brought us heavy rain yesterday. Trick or treating weather conditions should be just fine, though a bit on the cool side with lows dropping into upper-30s and around 40ºF tonight.
Tuesday – milder, sunny, with a high of around 60ºF in the city.
Wednesday – a warm front will push through early Wednesday. This will open the door to warmer air flowing around a high pressure center over the Southeast and an advancing cold front from the west. Temperatures will rise into the mid-60s with increasing clouds.
Thursday – even warmer still before this cold front above actually hits us. High temperatures expected to be in the upper-60s to near 70ºF. Some chances for showers later in the day into the overnight hours.
Drought Likely to Persist
Despite having received several inches of rain over the last couple of weeks, the seasonal outlook for our area continues to point to persistent moderate to severe drought. We hope to see some good snowfall like last winter that could bust the drought later on.
Autumn weather is here in earnest. In a remarkable change from last week, we’ll see high temperatures below normal for most days. Temperatures will range 30ºF cooler than this time last week. As we look ahead towards the winter, there are mixed signals about whether this will be a cooler, warmer, or average winter.
Rest of today – sunny, breezy, with a high near 60ºF. Northwest winds around 15mph, gusting to 30mph.
Tuesday – mostly sunny, breezy again especially later with northwest winds again between 15-20mph. Cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. With the wind, it will feel quite cool for this time of year.
Wednesday – winds should ease up a bit, but will be cool again with high temperatures potentially only in the low-50s.
Thursday – temperatures rise back into the mid-50s with the approach of a storm system from the west that should bring a chance for rain, increasing through the day.
Winter Outlook
Meteorologists are less confident that we’ll have a La Niña this coming winter, which makes the winter climate outlook more uncertain. There are indications that temperatures may be a bit milder overall. However, that doesn’t preclude the possibility of some serious cold spells also.
There are conflicting forecasts that call for a colder than normal winter also, which you can read about on Weather Underground. Unfortunately, there is no indication we’ll get above average precipitation, which would be welcomed considering most of the Northeast is still dealing with an increasingly serious drought.
We did end up getting rainier, windier weather last weekend than expected because of the lingering influence of Post-Tropical Storm Matthew as it got absorbed by a cold front. This cold front is what’s brought us the first real blast of autumn chill. This trend will reverse itself the next couple days. Cooler air returns for the weekend.
Rest of today – seasonable with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – warmer, with a cold front approaching from the west, warmer air will flow in from the south. This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper-60s under increasingly cloudy skies.
Thursday – a bit milder than Wednesday, with a possibility of temperatures reaching into the low-mid 70s. There is a slight chance for rain with the passage of the cold front, but this frontal passage looks in general to be a dry one.
Friday – colder air returns after the passage of the frontal boundary late Thursday. Temperatures return to seasonable levels in the low-60s under mostly sunny skies with overnight lows dipping to around 50ºF in the city and much cooler in the surrounding suburbs.
Saturday – another picture perfect autumn day with high temperatures in the low-60s and lots of sun.
Severe Drought Persists
We continue to suffer from a persistent and severe drought. We are more than 8″ below where we should be this time of year in terms of overall precipitation and the long term outlook does not call for any relief.
The main weather headline for this weekend was going to be about possible impacts from Hurricane Matthew. I’m glad to report it now appears the storm will miss us, but the good news for us translates for doubly bad news for Florida. We went from a possible hurricane/tropical storm impact this weekend to a weekend where we expect to see some decent, fall-like weather.
Rest of today – sunny with a high temperature in the low-70s.
Friday – sunny, slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. High pressure remains anchored over the area, blocking the progress of Matthew northward, and also giving us great weather.
Saturday – a cold front will approach from the west, clouds will increase overnight and there is a chance for rain on Saturday. Mostly cloudy otherwise with highs in the low-70s. Part of the reason Matthew is expected to miss the Northeast is because this frontal boundary was faster to approach than was forecast earlier. This means it will have a role in pushing Matthew out to sea, instead of lifting it north towards the coast here.
Sunday – noticeably cooler with below average high temperatures only in the mid-60s and skies clearing.
Hurricane Matthew No Longer a Threat to the Northeast – Could Hit Florida Twice
As of 11AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center‘s advisory showed that Hurricane Matthew had restrengthened into a robust Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. It had just moved past New Providence island in the Bahamas moving northwest at 14mph, having avoiding a direct landfall on the highly populated island where the capital Nassau sits. However, as we get more information in, it’s becoming clear that some areas of Haiti really got the worst case scenario. This video footage from the small town of Jeremie on the northern side of the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula shows the catastrophic damage Matthew caused. Jeremie took a direct hit from the storm’s northeastern eyewall, the strongest part of the storm, as Matthew made landfall on Haiti as a Category 4 with 145mph winds. This gives you an idea of the raw power of the storm that’s now headed for Florida.
Satellite image of Matthew at 11AM EDT October 6th, 2016. Below: radar imagery from Miami shows Matthew’s eye.
Outlook for Matthew
Luckily for us, long-range forecast models show that Matthew no longer poses a threat to the Northeast. The flip side is that a fairly unprecedented scenario might befall Florida. Some models are suggesting that after Matthew moves offshore of the Carolinas, it may execute a large cyclonic loop, with the possibility of making a second landfall on South Florida later next week, albeit as a much weaker storm. First, Floridians all up and down the east coast, will have to contend with a dangerous Category 4 storm scraping along the shore or maybe making direct landfall. The coast scraper scenario would result in worse outcomes for Georgia and South Carolina, since reduced interaction with land will mean a stronger storm, as well as higher storm surge.
After a gloomy, but appropriately fall-like start October, this week looks like it will bring much improved weather. Temperatures are expected to be just below or at normal for the majority of the week. The big question mark in the long-term for weather in our region is the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which could impact the area this coming weekend.
Tuesday – mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing and high temperatures in the upper-60s.
Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-60s. High pressure anchored over southeastern Canada will give us an extended period of nice weather.
Thursday – sunny, warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Friday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Hurricane Matthew an Increasing Threat to the US East Coast
Hurricane Matthew as captured by one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites on Monday, Oct 3 at 5PM EDT.
Hurricane Matthew poses an imminent and possibly catastrophic threat to Haiti, and portions of Eastern Cuba. Heavy rains from rain bands associated with the storm have already begun falling over Hispaniola and have hit Jamaica as well. Matthew is a potent Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds at 140mph. It is expected to bring rainfall of 8-20″ across the region, with some places receive 7-11′ of storm surge.
Matthew has displayed a number of anomalous characteristics that have defied forecasters and experts best efforts at predicting its intensity. Matthew underwent a period of rapid intensification, going from tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane with 160mph winds in just under 36 hours. This puts Matthew in an exclusive circle of just a handful of storms in recorded history that have accomplished this feat. Even more amazing, Matthew underwent this rapid intensification in the face of strong southwesterly wind shear that would typically stall a storm’s growth or weaken it.
During much of its life, a large area of intense thunderstorms has accompanied Matthew, at times exceeding the actual storm center in size. Scientists are uncertain as yet what role this feature had in Matthew’s unusual intensification. This feature has been impacting Hispaniola.
Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew as a strong Category 4, note the impressive area of intense thunderstorms east of the storm’s core.
Outlook for Hurricane Matthew
Matthew is expected to either skirt the extreme southwest peninsula of Haiti or make landfall there, then perhaps a secondary landfall on Eastern Cuba. The more interaction Matthew’s circulation has with the high terrain of these regions, the weaker it will get before entering the wide open, and warm waters of the Bahamas. It is expected to maintain major hurricane status (maximum sustained winds greater than 115mph) throughout most of the 4-5 forecast period.
Since even earlier today, major forecast models have come into much better agreement about the path of Matthew in the longer term. The unfortunate news is that the models have settled on solutions that push Matthew further to the west than previous runs. This dramatically increases the chances of a landfall somewhere on the Southeastern US, with Florida also in the range of possible tracks. Should this scenario unfold, we would be spared from a direct landfall here, but would still receive a storm of considerable strength with strong winds and heavy rains possible.
After a steamy end of the week last week, we get a refreshing change to fall-like weather for most of this week. The only exception will be Wednesday, when there looks to be a return to hotter temperatures.
Rest of today – high pressure is in control for today, which should yield mostly sunny conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s.
Tuesday – high pressure moves a bit further to our east, allowing for warmer air to flow in from the south. This will result in temperatures warming up to around 80ºF with sunny skies.
Wednesday – as the high pressure center above continues to move east, return flow form the south and southwest will continue to warm temperatures up and increase the humidity. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s.
Thursday – a weak cold front will pass through overnight Wednesday into Thursday. In the wake of this frontal boundary, a new area of high pressure will build over the Great Lakes. This will result in much cooler temperatures, in the mid-70s with a northerly wind. Thursday night, which is the Mid-Autumn Festival, should see spotless skies for moon viewing.
This past week, weather headlines were dominated by the uncertain course of how Post-tropical Cyclone Hermine would unfold. Now that Hermine has dissipated and is well behind us, we look ahead to the end of the week which will start off warm, but cool off somewhat.
Rest of today – it’s sunny now, but clouds are moving in from the north and west, and will likely result in partly sunny skies later on. High temperatures will range into the upper-80s and around 90ºF in some parts.
Friday – with an area of high pressure to our southwest, warm, humid air from south will flow into the region allowing temperatures to rise into the low-90s. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Saturday – a frontal boundary will be lingering in our vicinity during the day. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday – the frontal boundary pushes through as a cold front and brings in some relief from heat and humidity. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to rise to the mid-80s.
Drought Persists, Some Relief Ahead?
Parts of our state are still dealing with an extreme drought, though in our region, we’re “lucky” enough to only have a moderate to severe drought in parts of Long Island. The monthly outlook does call for some drought relief for Long Island, though.
