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NYC Weather Update – Post-Tropical Storm Hermine – Sep 4, 2016

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Although tropical storm warnings are still up for the five boroughs, coastal Connecticut, Long Island, and New Jersey, it appears at this time that the threat from Hermine is diminishing. The center of Hermine is now located well out into the Atlantic Ocean, and even if it does make its eventual turn to the north and northwest, it will be far enough east of us that most impacts should be on the moderate side.

Rest of today – over the last few days, Hermine has continuously trended east of the official National Hurricane Center forecast track, and has still not made a turn to the north or northwest. It is still forecast to make that turn today, bringing it closer to shore, and increasing clouds in the area. Winds should pick up as well, with high temperatures around 80ºF.

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Post-tropical cyclone Hermine this afternoon

Labor Day (Monday) – assuming that Hermine does make its projected turn towards the coast, Monday would entail a chance for rain, as well as strong winds, possibly approaching tropical storm force. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the upper-70s in this scenario. Could be a tough day for the Caribbean Day Parade.

Personally, I do not believe Hermine will produce tropical storm conditions (sustained wind greater than 39mph, less than 74mph). during this time, the confidence in this track forecast has been low, and any turn towards the coast has yet to verify. That said, nothing about this complex storm would be surprising, and a shift in storm track 50-60 miles west could dramatically increase the likelihood of the city receiving tropical storm conditions. Primary impacts will still be moderate to major coastal flooding with multiple tide cycles of storm surge and large waves leading to serious beach erosion in some places.

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Based on latest track forecasts and current position of Hermine, NYC rests in a zone of 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, with the probability increasing sharply further east.

Tuesday – could end up being a pretty decent day if Hermine is further off to the east at this point. If that happens, we’ll probably see decreasing clouds and improving conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. If Hermine sticks around, then we could see another day of wind and rain.

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Will be posting another update tomorrow.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Aug 15, 2016

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The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.

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Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.

Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.

Drought Conditions Improving?

The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.

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Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.

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NYC Weather Update – Aug 8, 2016

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The weekend gave us a mixed bag of weather, with some rain but mostly warm and humid weather. Humidity starts off at a comfortable level this week, but picks up towards mid-week when get a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures during this period will be above average by about 5ºF, though it will not be nearly as hot as a couple weeks ago.

Rest of today – more clouds than sun for the next few hours, but we’re still expected to hit highs in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 80s.

Wednesday – increased humidity, mostly cloudy with a high in the mid-80s. We will be squeezed between an incoming cold front and a high pressure center in the Atlantic, which will result in a mostly southerly flow of warmer, humid air into the region.

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Thursday – warmer, with highs around 90ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jul 25, 2016

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Recent weather headlines have been dominated by the heat. This will continue through most of the week, with relief not really in sight until Friday. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms today, but otherwise, there will be little in the way of rain.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Humidity will make it feel like the lower-100s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today. This relates to what appear to be multiple line segments of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing ahead of a weak cold front that look to impact the area during the PM rush.

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Tuesday – with the weak cold front above passing through, there will be some drop in humidity. However, temperatures are still expected to rise into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – temperatures finally start to back off the mid-90s into the low-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – increasing clouds, high near 90ºF.

Drought Continues to Grip the Northeast

Drought continues to worsen and is now prevalent in many parts of the Northeast, with areas in Western New York and Massachusetts particularly hard hit.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2016

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It will be a steamy, hot end to the week before the temperatures cool down a little and we get to enjoy a weekend of idyllic summer weather. Some potential for severe thunderstorms exists Thursday. A scattered thunderstorm chance also exists Friday and Saturday night, but the days look dry.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, hot, humid, with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90ºF. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, particularly in areas north of the city. If we do get clipped by storms in the city, we’ll be on the very southern periphery of the stronger storms, so it doesn’t seem all that likely we’ll see severe weather. Best timing for storms will be in the 3-6PM range.

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Friday – with more sun, Friday is expected to be even hotter than today with highs in the low-mid 90s.

Saturday – even though a cold front will finally pass through Friday, the frontal passage will not bring relief from the heat Friday (the frontal boundary separates two airmasses of disparate dewpoints, and not temperatures). Temperatures will hold in the upper-80s to 90ºF Saturday with mostly sunny skies. It will be an ideal day for heading to the beach as there should be a sea breeze on south-facing shores resulting in 5ºF cooler temperatures.

Sunday – warm, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and partly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 12, 2016

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This week started off with refreshing weather Monday. Temperatures will rise slowly during the course of the week with Friday being the hottest day. The only precipitation chance appears to come on Thursday when a cold front approaches the region.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, seasonably warm, with a high in the low-mid 80s.

Wednesday – temperatures begin slowly warming up as high pressure which has been sitting right over us moves to our east. This will allow a warmer southwesterly flow of air into the region.

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Thursday –  warmer still, possibly with high temperatures hitting 90ºF in some spots. In general, high temperatures will reach into the upper-80s. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will build in the afternoon along with the heat and the approach of a cold front.

Friday – partly cloudy, hot with a high near 90ºF.

Drought Expands Despite Rain

With a dearth of rain continuing, some areas of the northeast (much of Eastern Massachusetts) have been placed under an area of severe drought. For us, a moderate drought persists, despite the fact that we’ve had several rounds of drenching rain over the last couple weeks.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 7, 2016

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The end of this week will likely see the first official heat wave of the year, typically defined as 3 or more days with 90ºF+ temperatures. The hot and humid weather comes to a close this weekend as a backdoor cold front brings relief by Sunday. A couple rounds of active weather could crop up this afternoon and again Friday night.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with a high in the low-90s. Periods of clouds and sun with increasing clouds this afternoon. The area is under a flash flood watch due to the impending onset of showers and thunderstorms capable of generating heavy downpours of 1-2″/hour. You can see from the satellite image below that discrete, pulse type storms are already building. Coverage of these storms will increase and they will encounter conditions conducive for strengthening, with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, no capping to speak of, and lots of sunshine leading to MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/Kg. Storms should die down by later this evening. If you’re out and about, carry an umbrella because you may get dumped on.

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Friday – any relief from the heat from the storms today will unfortunately be short-lived. Temperatures Friday are expected to rise into the low-90s once again under mostly sunny skies. Friday night, as a backdoor cold front the northeast (so-called because it moves from northeast to southwest, the opposite of most cold fronts in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere), we could see another round of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain across the area.

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Saturday – with the backdoor cold front slowly progressing through the area during the day, some potential exists for scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will be more comfortable in the mid-80s with mostly sunny skies otherwise.

Sunday – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-80s. Best day of the weekend!

NYC Weather Update – Jul 4, 2016

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Rain moves through tonight, and then temperatures warm through the course of the week as a Bermuda high takes control. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday – otherwise this week will certainly feel like summer.

Rest of today (Independence Day) – increasingly cloudy, with a high near 85ºF. Forecasts last week seemed to indicate a rain-free weekend outside of Friday night when we experienced some severe thunderstorms. It now appears that an area of low pressure tracking to our south will bring rain to the area tonight. Currently, the timing of the rain appears to bring it in the city right around the time that the fireworks display is scheduled to kick off. The heaviest rain won’t begin falling until later tonight, so I don’t think this will wash the fireworks out, but it will result in less than ideal viewing conditions if you plan on being outside at the display.

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Tuesday – steady rains should end by the morning rush tomorrow, though a lingering shower could pop up till around noon. Decreasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – temperatures heat up into the low-90s, with dewpoints holding steady in the mid-upper 60s, it will feel like August. A Bermuda high will take hold through the end of the week, which could bring our first heat wave of the season.

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Thursday – mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms developing late in the day. High temperatures around 90ºF. 

NYC Independence Day Weekend Weather – Jun 30, 2016

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The holiday weekend ahead will be picture perfect for nearly any type of outdoor activity, with the caveat that it will start off with some stormy weather on Friday evening/night. This batch of storms may impact travelers as they make their getaway from the city, but once they pass, the rest of the weekend will be a real gem. Any fireworks displays not scheduled for Friday night should go off without a hitch.

Rest of today – warm with a light breeze from the northwest, less humid, high in the mid-80s with sunny conditions.

Friday – mostly cloudy, high around 80ºF, increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms especially toward the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds. Storms continue into early overnight hours.

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Saturday – sunny, high in the low-80s.

Sunday – clone of Saturday, high in the low-80s. High pressure begins to dominate the weather over the region.

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Monday (Independence Day) – another sunny, spotless day, with highs in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 27, 2016

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Weather this week and going into the July 4th weekend will be pleasant and dry, with the only real chance for rain during the next several days occurring overnight Tuesday as a cold front pushes through.

Rest of today – temperatures dropping through the day to the mid-70s by the PM rush, humid, with highs already topping out in the low-80s under partly sunny skies. A small chance for widely scattered showers exists later this evening.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the lower-80s. Chance of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day, though most likely in the afternoon. Overnight, the cold front associated with this round of precipitation pushes through, and this will serve as better trigger for showers and thunderstorms overnight.

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Wednesday – a small lingering chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms remains during the first half of the day. Otherwise, partly sunny with highs in the low-80s.

Thursday – dry, sunny, high temperatures in the low-80s.