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NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2015

April 2, 2015NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekendatlantic high pressure, cold front, high pressure, low pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, warm front, weather, weekend weather, weekend wxLei Zhao

We’re finally getting a run at some spring-like weather with highs above normal to end the work week. We’ll get some of those April showers that we’re hoping will lead to a fantastic display of spring flowers later this month and May. A cold front passing through Saturday will knock temperatures back a notch, and then we enter into a period of active weather dictated by a stalled frontal boundary the first half of next week.

Today – warm and breezy, with a high near or just over 60. Clouds increasing late, as a warm front approaches from the south. A chance of showers develops overnight as this warm front continues moving towards us.

Friday – an even warmer day on tap, with that aforementioned warm front having passed through. We’ll be in the warm sector until later when a cold front moves through. High temperatures, despite rain and clouds, should still be able to top out in the lower 60s.

gfs_namer_015_1000_850_thick

Saturday – with the cold front passing through, temperatures will drop on Saturday, back to about normal in the lower 50s. Partly sunny skies will slowly give way to more clear conditions.

Sunday – Sunday through Wednesday will be rather interesting. A frontal boundary is expected to push through Sunday, however, it is then expected to stall in our vicinity for a few days. As waves of low pressure ride along this stalled frontal boundary, the chance for showers persists through Wednesday.

A nice start to next week with above average high temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the mid-upper 50s along with those chances for rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 27, 2015

March 27, 2015NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, high pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, weather, weekend weatherLei Zhao

We got a taste of what high temperatures should be like for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold front that has since moved through will set the stage for a return to below normal temperatures to start the weekend. With a low pressure center well to our east possibly spawning an inverted trough, there is some possibility for light rain/snow mix overnight Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday and we go into next week with about normal temperatures right around 50.

Rest of today – a noticeably colder night on tap with northwesterly winds in the wake of that aforementioned cold front allowing for low temperatures to dip to about freezing. Any lingering precipitation would manifest itself as rain/snow mix, with points further east having a higher chance of seeing wet snow.

Saturday – a much colder than average day, with high temperatures only hitting the mid-upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal. Cloudy, windy, and raw, with snow showers possible early (accumulation unlikely), and rain showers later.

We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.

Sunday – things clear up nicely as that low pressure keeps pulling off to the east. Temperatures rebound a bit into the low 40s, which is still well below average.

Monday – a continued warmup ahead of a dry cold front, with high temperatures topping out around 50 under increasingly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – a pleasant, seasonable day with high temperatures in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies as high pressure comes into control.

The next chance at precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving clipper system.

Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 22, 2015

March 22, 2015Climate, NYC, Rain, Weather Updateclimate prediction center, cold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, spring, spring weather, warm front, warm sector, weather, winter, winter weatherLei Zhao

This upcoming week will feature some big swings in temperature, with high temperatures increasing steadily up through Thursday, when highs could 60 before a cold front swings through. Following the passage of this cold front, we dip back into the mid-40s and continue cooling into the lower-40s this weekend. The temperature trend in the medium term remains below normal, potentially well below normal even through the first week of April, as a series of cold fronts continue to allow cold Canadian air to enter the area.

Monday – an area of high pressure will yield a sparkling sunny day, but will also permit cold, Arctic air back into the region. Northwest winds combined with noticeably cold overnight lows will produce uncomfortably cold conditions. High temperatures Monday may barely break freezing. It’ll be one of the coldest day we’ve had this month.

Tuesday – also gets off to a chilly start, but high temperatures are expected to push up to around 40 (which is more than 10ºF colder than normal).

Wednesday – a clear start, but clouds will be building ahead of a warm front that will pass over the region late Wednesday. Temperatures will steadily climb to near 50, especially after the warm front passes. There will be a slight chance for rain later Wednesday in conjunction with this frontal passage.

Thursday – highs will near if not break 60, however, it is anticipated to be a overcast day with periods of rain possible throughout the day. After the warm front passes Wednesday, we’ll be firmly within the warm sector, between the warm front to our east and the approaching cold front from the west. This setup favors the influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf riding in on persistent southwesterly winds, before a dramatic shift following the cold front passing, with winds becoming west-northwest and a drop in temperatures.

Friday – high temperatures drop back in to the mid-40s, as clouds break apart and colder, dry air takes hold behind the cold front.

Below Normal Start to April

It’s close to a sure bet (70% probability) that we’ll end the month of March and start April with below normal temperatures, taking a look at the Climate Prediction Centers forecasts below. I know we’re all sick of this seemingly endless winter, but we’re still not out of the woods in terms of temperatures.

6-10 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

NYC Weather Update – Mar 18, 2015

March 18, 2015Climate, NYC, Snow, Weather Update, Weekendmarch, march snow, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, spring, weather, winter, winter weatherLei Zhao

Just when we thought winter was on its last legs, and spring was on its way. Unfortunately, as the Climate Prediction Center forecast a couple weeks ago, a cool down is in the cards to end the month of March. In fact, it will get so cold that snow could accumulate Friday into Friday night. After a brief warmup, another shot of colder than normal air will return to grip the area to end off the month.

Thursday – a below normal, but dry day with plenty of sun and high near 40.

Friday – (ironically, first day of astronomical spring) a coastal low moving offshore of the Carolinas will then track north. Enough cold air will be in place Friday, along with a persistent northerly flow with counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure center that snow is looking likely during the course of the day. Current forecast snow accumulations are on the light side, no more than 3-4″. If temperatures are even a few degrees warmer than currently forecast, we could get away with little accumulation.

Saturday – things clear up quickly on Saturday with high temperatures back near normal in the mid-upper 40s.

Sunday – a dry cold front moves through Sunday, leading to a drop in temperatures to below normal in the upper 30s.

Cool Off Coming Up

The climate prediction center continues to point to cooler than normal temperatures for the last two weeks of March. One can only hope that the temperatures are not so cold as to allow for more snow, but I wouldn’t rule this possibility entirely out given some of the longer term forecast models.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 10, 2015

March 10, 2015Climate, NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Updateclimate, climate prediction center, mixed precipitation, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, weatherLei Zhao

We’ve finally had a stretch of warmer than average weather after what seemed like an endless winter. Things are set to get even warmer tomorrow in the wake of tonight’s rain storm, before cooling off back into normal range to end the week. Another round of rain (with some mixed precipitation inland) will be impacting the area Friday into Saturday.

Rest of today – light rain falling now should increase in intensity over the course of the evening. Steady rain is expected overnight. Dense fog and low visibilities may be a problem overnight into the early morning hours, due to the influence of a saturated, warm airmass approaching an area of colder air. Overnight lows in the low 40s, with dew points around the same (fog often forms when dew point = air temperature).

Wednesday – any remaining rain should end quickly tomorrow morning. Clouds will give way to sun as high pressure begins to take hold over the area. Before too cold air gets into the area due to a northwest wind, we should see temperatures reach the mid-50s (wouldn’t be surprised if some spots hit close to 60 with the increasing daylight hours).

Thursday – another pleasant, and seasonable day, with plenty of sun and high temperatures around normal in the mid-upper 40s.

Friday – one more day of decent weather, but with slightly more clouds than Thursday. Temperatures should top out around the mid-40s again. The next storm system approaches from the west and rain should begin to fall during the late evening hours. Overnight, some mixing with snow/wintry mix could occur, however, by daybreak Saturday, temperatures will be well above freezing and any mixing should return to all rain.

Saturday – a rainy day, but on the mild side with temperatures near 50.

A cooldown coming
Unfortunately, after a week of normal temperatures, we are likely to see a return to below normal temperatures for the second half of March, based on the following forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. High pressure will be dropping down from Canada again next week, leading to this greater than 60% probability of below normal temperatures. Luckily, since normal temperatures are now in the upper 40s, the below normal temperatures will not mean a return to the frigid tundra.

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook

Climate Prediction Center 1 month temperature outlook for March

NYC Weather Update – Mar 5, 2015

March 5, 2015Climate, NYC, Snow, Weather Update, Weekendclimate, cold, high pressure, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, spring, weatherLei Zhao

Today may be the last major winter storm of the winter for us. It certainly has been an eventful and cold winter for the books. We’ll end the week and start off this weekend and early next week with below normal temperatures, but temperatures will rise steadily throughout next week, such that we should be back to normal temperatures in the mid-upper 40s by the end of next week.

Rest of today – snow is already tapering off over the area, with widespread snowfall totals of between 4-8″ reported (largely in line with forecasts). Any remaining precipitation should completely clear the area within the next couple of hours.

Friday – we endure what we all hope will be the last day of temperatures in the low-mid 20s as cold, dry air filters in behind this storm system.

Saturday – high pressure moves in over the weekend, with temperatures Saturday edging up to around freezing.

Sunday – fair weather continues, but perhaps with more clouds on Sunday as some weak impulses of energy move over areas well to the north of NYC. High temperatures will increase to the low 40s.

Monday – the warming trend continues as spring approaches, high temperatures continue to warm into the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.

Finally leaving the Arctic air behind?

A large scale warming trend is forecast to take hold over much of the US during the medium term. Temperatures next week should warm progressively such that by next Friday, we’ll be looking at (gasp) high temperatures near 50. The week after, on the cusp of spring, almost the entirety of the Continental US is forecast to experience warmer than normal temperatures, with the exception of Texas, and New York into Southern New England. However, we are forecast to be in normal range of temperatures for this time of year, which means mid-upper 40s. Not quite flip flops and t-shirt weather, but a positive trend nonetheless.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2015

February 26, 2015NYC, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendarctic cold, cold, high pressure, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, weather, weekend weatherLei Zhao

Another cold weekend is on tap for the area, before the start of a week of active weather. It does appear that March will be coming in like a lion this year.

Rest of today – some sun, with a chance for light flurries and a high in the mid-20s.

Friday – diminishing clouds with a high temperature again in the mid-20s. High pressure begins building to our west, yielding northwesterly winds that will allow chilly, Arctic air to filter back into the area. Overnight lows Friday will be in the low teens.

Saturday – with high pressure to our west still firmly in control, it will be a sunny, but cold day, with highs again only in the mid-20s.

Sunday – clouds will be increasing ahead of an approaching storm system and as high pressure exits to the east. There will be a slight warmup ahead of the storm, with temperatures topping out near freezing. Snow likely overnight, although significant accumulations are not expected.

Monday – temperatures will warm potentially into the low 40s on Monday as warm air from the southwest gets pulled into the storm system. There may be some mixed precipitation along the coastal plain, with all snow elsewhere, mostly early in the day.Tuesday – following the passage of the storm on Monday, temperatures dip back to around freezing, ahead of another storm system that will be impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm has a greater potential significant precipitation.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 24, 2015

February 24, 2015Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendarctic, arctic air, arctic cold, cold, cold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, winter, winter weather, winter weather nycLei Zhao

After that brief “warmup” during the weekend, we’re once again mired in Arctic cold air. This cold trend continues with a reinforcing shot of cold air as a cold front sweeps through Wednesday. Behind that, high pressure builds in over the area for the end of the week and into the weekend, ensuring another prolonged stretch of chilly, much below normal temperatures.

Wednesday – ahead of what will a dry cold front passing through, high temperatures may be able to climb to just about the freezing mark under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – once the cold front moves offshore, an area of low pressure will strengthen, but remain well offshore of the area. However, precipitation may still make its way over the region, especially the far eastern areas. There’ll be a chance for snow flurries further west in the city. Temperatures will be back in the mid-20s again in the wake of that cold front.

Friday – clearing skies will be accompanied by stagnant cold temperatures with highs again in the mid-20s.

Saturday – as you’ll se below, a strong 1040mb area of high pressure will be parked over the Ohio Valley will be responsible for the sunny, but cold temperatures through at least Saturday night. Highs Saturday may approach 30ºF. Normal highs for this time of the year are closer to 40ºF.Looking Ahead

814temp.new — Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 4th to March 10th, with our region in an area expected to experience below normal temperatures.

The beginning of next week looks to feature a fairly active pattern, with two storm systems passing through, one on Monday, and another on Wednesday. With the current track of the second storm, it looks like we are going to be on the south side of the low pressure center. This would allow for warmer air to wrap into the area. We could top 40ºF again, but the tradeoff will be a slushy, wet day maybe with some mixed precipitation to start. Once this second storm passes through, we return to cold temperatures once again.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 12, 2015

February 12, 2015NYC, Snow, Weather Update, Weekendarctic, cold, cold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, snow showers, weather, wind chill, winter weatherLei Zhao

The main headline for the upcoming weekend and into next week will be the very cold airmass that will be spreading over the region, bringing with it what will likely be the coldest temperatures we’ve seen thus far this year. The coldest period over this stretch will be overnight Sunday into Monday, when low temperatures in the city could touch zero. If that does happen, it would be the first time the city has hit zero or below since January of 1994, according to National Weather Service records!

Friday – there will be a noticeable difference in daytime temperatures versus today. High temperatures are going to struggle to even hit the upper teens in the city, once the cold front responsible for the off and on flurries today passes through tonight. Overnight lows will again be in the low teens in the city, and colder in outlying suburbs.

Saturday – another clipper-type system will move quickly through the area on Saturday, setting off a period of snow showers that could end up dropping 1-2″ across the region. High temperatures will warm up slightly – if you can call a high near 30 a warm up! Overnight, winds will begin to pick up, with wind chills between -5ºF to -15ºF.

Sunday – a stiff northwest wind will pick up. The clipper system that passes Saturday will rapidly intensify as it moves over the Atlantic. This will set up an increasingly tight pressure gradient with a high pressure center over the Great Lakes. This setup will swing the door wide open for Arctic air to blast into the region. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid-teens in the city, and overnight lows may be as cold as zero or just below zero. Regardless, the sustained northwest winds will yield wind chill values between -15ºF to -25ºF.

Monday, President’s Day – sunny skies, but that Arctic airmass will still be very much in control, with temperatures struggling to hit 20.

Tuesday – a return to temperatures near freezing again with an approaching low pressure system that will deliver our next chance at precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 8, 2015

February 8, 2015Freezing Rain, NYC, Snow, Weather Updatearctic, arctic cold, cold, freezing rain, ice, icing, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, snowfall, weather, winter, winter weather, wintry mix, wxLei Zhao

Another messy start to the work week is in store for us tonight and into Monday night as we endure a long duration, though relatively light intensity winter storm. Luckily for us, the storm track means we’ll avoid the worst impacts of heavy snow (New England will get the worst of it again). There’s some concern for icing again, although the impact should be slightly less serious than last Monday. The rest of the week will be precipitation free, with the exception of some snow showers possible Thursday. Following these snow showers, another shot of brutally cold Arctic air is expected by week’s end, such that highs will only be in the low 20s and even upper teens.

Monday – as you can see from below, the snowfall totals for the southern portion of the NYC area are on the very low end, only 1-2″ expected in NYC and in Long Island. The higher snowfall totals will be north of I-84 and into Connecticut, with the far northern suburbs getting a chance at over 6″. Bear in mind, the snow is expected over an extended period starting tonight through Monday night.

Ice is a bigger concern for the immediate coastal areas that will see less snow. High temperatures during the day Monday be below freezing, so freezing rain is expected and could deposit between 0.15″-0.25″ of ice when all is said and done. The majority of this is expected to fall Monday morning before temperatures cool off at the coast and precipitation switches back to all snow.

Tuesday – high temperatures should be right around freezing with clouds diminishing through the day as the storm system from Monday pulls to the east.

Wednesday – a sunny day expected with highs again near freezing.

Thursday – we get our next chance at snow, on the light side, with a passing low pressure system forming over the Great Lakes and moving east towards us high temperatures will be again around freezing.

Friday – a sunny, but frigid day with highs expected to only be in the upper teens and low 20s. As you can see from the chart above, to the west of the low affecting our area on Thursday, there is an area of high pressure which will usher in that reinforcing blast of Arctic air.

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region