Tag Archives: rain

NYC Weather Update – Nov 25, 2019

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Thanksgiving week starts off with warmer than average temperatures largely in the mid-50s ahead of an approaching storm that should impact the area Wednesday. Behind this storm, temperatures are forecast to drop back into the 40s. Thanksgiving Day will be dry, however, the low responsible for the mid-week storm will deepen as it exits the region, resulting in winds possibly strong enough to ground the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows heading down into the low-40s with mostly clear skies overnight.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies, showing positive anomalies over much of the Northeast on Tuesday

Tuesday – southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front/storm system should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Wednesday – cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Chance of showers during the day and into the early overnight hours. Decreasing clouds overnight, with lows in the mid-40s and increasing winds.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb heights, surface pressure, and precipitation

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 50°F, winds should be quite breezy with a tight pressure gradient forming around the deepening and exiting low pressure center. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 18, 2019

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Spells of rain will bookend what should otherwise be a pleasant week of mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend slightly below normal for this time of year, however, we will avoid any dramatic swings in temperature. Record cold will not be on the table either. All in all, it should shape up to be a fairly typical mid-November week.

Rest of today – windy, mostly cloudy, with chances for scattered rain showers as a slow moving coastal low continues spinning off of the coast of New England. High temperatures should only hit the mid-40s with the cooling influence of clouds and persistently northeasterly flow. Chances for rain continue overnight with lows dropping into the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Monday

Tuesday – rain chances should finally end as the coastal low affecting us finally pulls away to the northeast. Clouds should break up leading to a decent day with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows should be around 40°F.

Wednesday – partly sunny with highs around 50°F. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

GFS 500 mb height, relative vorticity for 1PM Friday. We can see a distinct shortwave trough approaching from the west. Enhanced vorticity around the base of this trough should help touch of some precipitation at the surface as a cold front sweeps through.

Thursday – best day of the week with high pressure briefly building in. High temperatures again around 50°F, with overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 15, 2019

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Seasonable temperatures to start the weekend won’t last as a cold front dives through and Canadian high pressure builds behind it Saturday. Cooler flow from the northeast will set up as the high sets up north of us and moves east. Winds will increase in intensity as an approaching coastal storm from the south leads to a tighter pressure gradient. This storm is currently tracking well offshore. However, we may still see some rain from the outer bands of the storm Monday. Aside from Saturday, temperatures will largely range 10-15°F lower than normal during this period.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 30°F with winds increasing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – with high pressure in control, we should see sunny conditions, but temperatures will be cooler with steady northeast winds of 20-25 mph. High temperatures around 40°F. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Sunday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-40s. Chances for rain possibly going overnight into Monday. Low temperatures in the upper-30s.

GFS model output for 7PM Monday, depicting a glancing blow from a coastal storm moving northeast well offshore of the area.

Monday – chances for showers with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Overnight lows around 40°F. Persistent northeast flow may lead to coastal flooding concerns.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 12, 2019

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Record setting cold is on the way mid-week. Overnight lows in the mid-20s and daytime highs hovering around freezing Wednesday will make this week feel more like January than mid-November. Luckily, this bitter cold snap will be short-lived, with temperatures rebounding back into the 50s by the end of the week.

Rest of today – temperatures will be falling through the 40s during the day. Precipitation should end as an Arctic front pushes through. Temperatures will continue dropping into the 30s throughout the evening and bottoming out in the mid-20s. Precipitation should end before it gets cold enough to produce snow. Winds will become stiff with the parent low strengthening and a tight pressure gradient forming between that and an incoming high pressure center.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Wednesday

Wednesday – sunny with record low high temperatures in the low-30s as a frigid Arctic air mass takes hold. Overnight lows continue to be cold, in the upper-20s.

Thursday – temperatures start to rebound into the upper-40s as a warm front approaches and we enter the warm sector of the next storm. Return flow around the western edge of the high pressure exiting east will also assist in helping move some warmer air in. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

  • GFS model 500 mb temperature, height and wind at 1AM Wednesday, note the closed 500 mb low and the strong troughing over much of the Northeastern US
  • By 7PM Friday, the 500 mb trough is forecast to have flattened out considerably, allowing for temperatures at this level and at the surface to rebound

Friday – the warm-up continues, with temperatures reaching back into seasonable levels in the low-50s. A moisture starved cold front passes through late bringing overnight lows back down to the low-30s

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 8, 2019

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Very cold temperatures kick off the weekend, followed by a return to milder temperatures. The reprieve is brief though, with the outlook for next week looking equally cold, especially on the heels of another storm system possibly impacting the region Monday night through Tuesday. Behind this, a reinforcing blast of cold air will reintroduce much below average temperatures to the region. High temperatures will start off ~15°F below normal for this time of year, the moderate to just a couple degrees below normal by Veterans Day.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, strong winds from the northwest ranging 25-35 mph with higher gusts. High temperatures only in the low-40s with this cold wind. Overnight lows may approach record lows, in the upper-20s. This will be aided by winds dying down and clearing skies as the high pressure center shown below continues to build and move closer to us. This should allow for potentially strong radiational cooling before dawn.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – very cold start to the day, temperatures will struggle to climb into the low-40s, close to the record coldest high temperatures for this time of year. The plus side will be calmer winds, eventually shifting to the southwest as the high pressure above moves off to the east. This should help “warm” things up a bit, with overnight lows recovering into the mid-30s.

Sunday – much warmer with high temperatures in the low-50s despite more cloud cover, both due the influence of southwesterly flow. Overnight lows warming into the mid-40s.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 7AM Saturday
  • Corresponding GFS 500 mb heights, vorticity. Troughing at the mid-levels here will allow for the continued influx of cold air into the Eastern US. Note how the western US, which is under a 500 mb ridge is expected to experience above normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Nov 13-17, showing a very high probability for continued colder than average conditions for much of the Eastern US.

Monday (Veterans Day) – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight, a system will approach from the west and could bring rain with lows bottoming out in the low-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 5, 2019

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The week after we set our clocks back for the fall will see a shift to the coldest temperatures we’ve yet seen this season. High temperatures will trend from normal levels to slightly below normal (upper-50s to low-50s) before plummeting into the 40s following the passage of a low pressure center and cold front. The chilly air following this system will begin a longer term trend of below average temperatures going into the middle of the month at least.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of showers as a cold front passes through later in the day. High temperatures on the mild side in the low-60s as we’ll be in the warm sector of the parent low bringing the cold front through. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 7AM Wednesday

Wednesday – sunny with cooler high temperatures in the low-50s. High pressure depicted above will keep things nice and dry. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Thursday – starting off mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. A storm system will approach later in the day and bring the chance for rain at first, with rain and snow mixing possible overnight as lows drop into the mid-30s.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature anomaly forecast for November 10-14
  • An anomalously low area of 500 mb heights will produce cold temperatures at the surface

Friday – the real cold sets in with high temperatures only in the low-40s. Rain/snow should taper off early giving way to sunny conditions, with winds picking up due to the low bringing this weather strengthening as it continues moving off to the northeast. Overnight lows are shaping up to be below freezing, near 30°F with winds forecast to die down and skies clearing allowing for some good radiational cooling.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 25, 2019

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This weekend starts off with fair and dry weather. A storm developing along the Gulf Coast of Texas, tracking north along the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Great Lakes, then east towards our area will bring a prolonged period of steady rain on Sunday. As of 11AM today, National Hurricane Center has designated this storm as Tropical Depression Seventeen. This storm should pull out of the area before the start of next week. Temperatures during this period should be at or above average for this time of the year in the low-mid 60s.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a cold front weakening, then stalling and returning north as a warm front. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds briefly and should give us mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with increasing clouds and chances for rain.

Sunday – much like last weekend, a storm with tropical origins will bring rain and lots of moisture to the area. The extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Seventeen will track north towards the Great Lakes during this period. A warm front attached to it will bring a shield of steady stratiform rain over the area. Mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-60s as winds turn to the south. Steady rain continuing into the early overnight hours until the storm’s trailing cold front finally sweeps through and drier air works in. Lows in the mid-50s.

  • NAM model output for relative humidity and wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the nearly saturated nature of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
  • NAM model output for wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the high wind speeds at this level, indicating the presence of an 850 mb low-level jet (LLJ)
  • NAM model output for precipitable water at 2PM Sunday. Note the high values above 1.50″. This makes sense, given the tropical origins of the storm that will impact us Sunday.
  • Projected track of Tropical Depression Seventeen

Monday – high pressure and calmer conditions return with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 21, 2019

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Sunny and seasonable weather with highs in the mid-60s will be punctuated by the passage of a strong frontal system mid-week. The timing of this frontal passage should bring the bulk of the rain through overnight Tuesday, such that Wednesday ends up still being a nice day. Looking ahead, a second cold front is forecast to move through late in the weekend but is not expected to bring significant rain at this time. Temperatures throughout this forecast period and beyond are looking to be at or above normal in the low-60s/

Rest of today – mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM tonight. We will be wedged between the storm that brought steady rain yesterday to the east and an approaching frontal system with a parent low over the Upper Midwest.

Tuesday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain chances increasing especially later in the day. Bulk of the rain accompanying the cold front should arrive overnight. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Wednesday – rain should clear the area. Temperatures expected to rebound back into the mid-60s under sunny skies with some downsloping westerly flow behind the front. Overnight lows in the upper-40s with a cooler, drier airmass working in.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Oct 26-30. We will be in an area with about equal chances of above or below normal temperatures up to 33% for warmer than normal temperatures.

Thursday – another really nice day with high temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows around 50°F.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 14, 2019

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The week starts off with warm temperatures for this time of year, followed by entry of a cooler airmass. A storm system is forecast to bring rain mid-week. Temperatures will cool even more behind this storm with high temperatures dropping to slightly below normal levels in the low-60s by the end of the week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, with highs in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – a dry cold front passes over the region later today, leading to cooler high temperatures in the low-60s for Tuesday on the back of colder northwest winds behind the front. It should be a sunny day. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Wednesday – a low pressure system over the Great Lakes will track east towards the area. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail with highs warming into the mid-60s due to a shift in winds to the south and southeast. Rain should start to overspread the area later in the afternoon and continue overnight. Overnight lows in the low-50s and even cooler possibly in the upper-40s. A secondary coastal low forming off the Carolina coast will become the primary low as energy transfers from the inland storm.

  • GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness and precipitation valid 2PM Wednesday
  • GFS model output of the same metrics for 2AM Thursday

Thursday – rain should clear out before the start of the day but winds will be breezy from the northwest. This will bring in cooler air again with high temperatures in the upper-50s and partly sunny skies. Overnight lows around 50°F.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 8, 2019

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A distinct fall feel this week with grey skies the norm and spotty rain chances for many of the days. A coastal storm brewing off the Southeast coast is forecast to track north and then northeast. National Hurricane Center is tracking this system as it has some potential to acquire subtropical characteristics. This will be a slow moving storm that will bring a long period of northeasterly winds to the area.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper-60s. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday
  • The developing coastal storm depicted above.

Showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic between the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda are associated with a broad, non-tropical area of low pressure. This system is forecast to move northward or northeastward and could acquire some subtropical characteristics off the east coast of the United States by the end of the week.

National Hurricane Center

Wednesday – although the storm referenced is forecast to remain well offshore, outer rain bands from it could bring showers to the area along with persistent northeast winds. These wind are anticipated to be on the strong side, steadily in the mid-teens with gusts in the 25 mph range. Mostly cloudy with highs around 60°F. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Thursday – rain chances continue as the storm develops and becomes a closed low. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-60s. Winds will become blustery from the northeast around 15 mph with higher gusts. This will be due to the increasing pressure gradient between the deepening low and high pressure over eastern Quebec. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

GFS model output of 850 mb winds and relative humidity. The coastal storm continues to spin off the Northeast coast, although its center remains well offshore (just above the pivotalweather logo in this frame).

Friday – rain still lingers though the storm starts to finally make some eastward progress as a trough approaches from the west. High temperature remain in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as warmer southerly flow starts to work into the region.