Tag Archives: snow

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 16, 2018

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This holiday weekend will feature some wild swings in temperature. We’ll bookend the weekend with chances for rain, but in between, we may see some decent accumulating snow. So much for an early spring.

Rest of today (Lunar New Year) – the year of the dog arrives on a cloudy day with temperatures dropping through the course of the day on the heels of a couple cold fronts pushing through. We have a break in the rain right now, but more will arrive later in the day. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front and increase in speed, bringing in a much colder air mass that will set the stage for snow on Saturday.

Saturday – much colder with temperatures topping out around 40°F after a very cold start. Increasing clouds as an area of low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast brings us the chance for accumulating snow. This coastal storm should be fairly fast mover, but forecasters think it will still bring enough precipitation to warrant a winter storm watch. The official forecasts are calling for a range of 4-8″ overnight Saturday into Sunday. Based on current forecast ensembles, I’m inclined to side with the lower end of that range and call for 4″ at best. As usual, the exact timing and track of this storm could still change a bit before the actual event. A slightly slower or slightly more northerly track would result in higher totals, and conversely a faster and more southerly track would result in only minor accumulations.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-40s and decreasing clouds. Whatever snow we get will begin to melt almost immediately.

Monday (President’s Day) – warmer still with high temperatures in the low-50s and chances for rain as a warm front approaches.

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 2, 2017

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The groundhogs have spoken. Our own Staten Island Chuck predicts an early spring, while his more famous counterpart Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter. Well, it certainly won’t feel like spring this coming weekend as we endure chilly conditions today and tomorrow before a slight warm up with a chance for precipitation Sunday.

Rest of today – clear, but windy with a northwest breeze 20-25 mph range. This will quickly sweep in much colder Arctic air via cold advection, and as a result temperatures will drop through the day from a high around 30°F.

Saturday – with overnight lows dropping into the teens, Saturday will likewise be a cold day with high temperatures only reaching around 30°F. Clouds will increase as the warm front associated with the next area of low pressure to hit the area moves in late in the day.

Sunday – with the warm front passing over us, winds turn to the southwest and warm advection will result in temperatures warming overnight into Sunday when high temperatures are expected to reach the low-40s. Precipitation in association with the cold front attached to the low pressure below will likely begin as all snow in the city before transitioning to a rain/snow mix or all rain with temperatures rising well above freezing. Little to no snow accumulation is expected – but the journey to and back from various Super Bowl related festivities will be messy.

Monday – things dry out and conditions improve as temperatures top out in the upper-30s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Chuck’s Wrong, Phil’s Right

Unfortunately for those of you who like warmer weather, Staten Island Chuck’s prediction of an early spring is likely to be off the mark. A progressive series of storm systems and an oscillating jet stream will bring multiple bouts of cold weather to the area before the winter’s out. Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of 33% chance for below normal temperatures in their monthly outlook.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 29, 2018

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This week starts and ends with some active weather. Colder temperatures that swept in after the passage of a cold front this weekend will be here to stay for the remainder of the week. We get a couple chances to see some snow, but not anything of considerable quantity.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. A coastal storm passes by but far enough offshore that we shouldn’t see serious impacts from it.

Tuesday – chance of rain and snow in the overnight hours with some troughs rotating around the back side of this departing coastal low. Could have enough snow to make for a messy morning commute, but we’re not looking at any significant accumulation. Cloudy otherwise with temperatures topping out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around freezing.

Thursday – increasing clouds with temperatures warming into the mid-40s in the warm sector before the next storm system hits us.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 15, 2018

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We have a week of below average cold to contend with before a warm up over the weekend. Two separate chances for snow will take place Tuesday, but neither of these events is expected to drop large snowfall totals.

Rest of today (MLK Jr Day) – cold with high temperatures in the upper-20s and increasing clouds.

Tuesday – temperatures at or just above freezing. Cloudy with a clipper system moving through and bringing chances for light snow accumulation of around an inch.

Wednesday – snow chances continue into the first part of the day as the clipper system transitions into a coastal low. Overall snow accumulation not expected to exceed 2″ at this time.

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures just above freezing.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 8, 2018

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We have a week ahead where we should see temperatures warming into the normal range through mid-week near the 40°F mark. A even more pronounced warm up takes place towards the end of the week with rain expected.

Rest of today – overcast with temperatures at or just above the freezing mark. A frontal boundary passes through later today bringing the chance for snow showers. Some mixing with sleet and freezing rain could occur at the coast with temperatures slightly above freezing. Timing of precipitation will be late afternoon potentially disrupting the evening commute.

Tuesday – a great day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures at or above 40°F.

Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Thursday – an approaching frontal boundary and high pressure forming over the Atlantic will lead to strong warm advection and warm winds flowing from the southwest. In response, temperatures will surge into the upper-40s and maybe touch 50°F! Quite a difference from last week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 5, 2018

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Record-breaking cold to impact the region on the heels of the snowstorm that hit yesterday. Brutally cold weather lasts through the weekend before a thaw in temperatures pushes us back into normal ranges to start next week. Temperature trends likely to continue to above normal levels finally after a long cold spell. Snowfall totals in the city from yesterday generally ranged between 9-12″.

Rest of today – clear, windy, with a high in the mid-teens. Stiff west winds in the 20 mph range will make wind chills feel like -10ºF to -15ºF. A wind chill advisory is in effect for this reason.

Saturday – overnight lows in the single digits. Wind continues to be a factor blowing at 15-20 mph with record low day time temperatures likely to be broken. Highs only in the mid-teens again despite clear skies.

Sunday – with winds abating late Saturday and clear skies, excellent conditions for strong radiational cooling will exist. Overnight lows into Sunday maybe only as high as 5ºF. Clear and sunny with a high near 20ºF.

Monday – an approaching low from the west finally helps push temperatures back up in the upper-30s. Increasing clouds. Light snow and sleet possible overnight into Tuesday.

 

Warming Trend to Continue Next Week

We finally get a break from the brutal cold as the jet stream flattens out over the Eastern US next week, pushing this bitterly cold Arctic airmass north. Climate Prediction Center calls for 33% chances of above normal temperatures over the next 6-10 days. Normal highs are in the upper-30s. The 40s will feel downright balmy compared the the 20ºF below normal temperatures we’ve been seeing.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 1, 2018

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First post of 2018! The main weather headlines for this week will be a (slight) break from the bitter cold, a chance for snow, and then a return to even colder temperatures to end the week. There is some potential for a heavier snow storm on Thursday, but forecast models are at odds on some significant details.

Rest of today – sunny, but bitterly cold with high temperatures only in the upper-teens. With a steady northwest wind around 15 mph, wind chills fall between 0 and -5°F.

Tuesday – warmer and sunny with high temperatures in the mid-20s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures nearing 30°F! Downright balmy compared to the beginning of the week.

Thursday – a complex scenario unfolds relating to a coastal storm anticipated to approach the area. Differences exist between major forecast models that would lead to a significant spread in snowfall totals from this event. The first scenario, and the more likely of the two, depicts a storm further offshore, favoring lighter snow. The second scenario shows one much closer to the coast, resulting in much heavier snow and even mixed precipitation. For now, siding with the more likely scenario that favors lighter snow would see only about an inch in the city. Temperatures during the day on Thursday should warm into the upper-20s.

The GFS model depicts a storm that passes farther offshore, which would lead to a light snowfall event for the city. This is the more likely scenario at this time.
Resulting ensemble forecast snowfall totals from the GFS. The mean here is only about .6″, reflecting the forecast scenario above.
The NAM shows a much more substantial snow event, with the storm passing significantly closer to the coast. The mean of this model calls for snowfall totals of nearly 7″, with a secondary cluster of ensemble members between 16-23″!

 

NYC New Year’s Eve Weather – Dec 29, 2017

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A light snow tops off 2017. The new year comes with a continued stretch of arctic cold. Make sure to bundle up for your New Year’s Eve festivities as this may be one of the coldest nights we’ve seen. Cold extends well into next week where we could see a more substantial snow storm.

Rest of today – increasing clouds, cold, with high temperatures in the low-20s.

Saturday – a weak storm system moving from the Great Lakes and a secondary coastal low should bring a light snowfall of 1-2″ in the city. High temperatures in the mid-20s.

Sunday (New Year’s Eve) – Arctic high pressure returns with a vengeance. High temperatures around 20°F, with mostly sunny skies.

Monday (New Year’s Day) – bitterly cold temperatures overnight hovering in the low teens. Wind chill will make frostbite a real issue. High temperatures Monday struggle to break even 20°F.

NYC Christmas Weekend Weather – Dec 21, 2017

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Those of you hoping for a white Christmas will be disappointed to know that we’ll instead probably be getting a rainy weekend. There is still some small chance for snow mixed with rain Christmas Day, but the white stuff won’t be sticking. While temperatures will warm up this first weekend of the official start of winter, they will plummet considerably after Christmas. Looking into long-range forecast models, there are some indications for what could be winter storms for the first couple weekends of January.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with some thin clouds, but cool with high temperatures in about 40°F.

Saturday – overnight into tomorrow, a warm front will be pushing through associated with the first of two storms affecting the area this holiday weekend. Light rain will precede this frontal passage overnight, then warmer air and steadier precipitation should affect the area during the day Saturday. High temperatures will be much warmer, around 50°F.

Sunday – once the cold front depicted above moves through, we will get a calm day on Sunday with high temperatures dropping back into the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies.

Monday (Christmas Day) – another area of low pressure will develop along the cold front that pushes into the Atlantic. This low will track close enough to the Northeast to bring some chance for a passing snow shower early in the day Monday with much colder air rushing in from the northwest. High temperatures should be in the low-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 15, 2017

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A very cold start to the weekend with light snow accumulations will give way to a warming trend that carries over to the beginning of next week. During this time, we’ll see temperatures go from much below average to above average.

Rest of today – snow beginning around 2PM today and lasting through the evening rush hour with generally 1-2″ of accumulations expected in the city. Cloudy otherwise with high temperatures holding steady in the upper-20s to around 30ºF. The cause of the snow is a strengthening coastal low. This low will pass close enough that a shield of decent snowfall hits the area for several hours this afternoon.

Saturday – another cold night with overnight lows in the mid-20s in the city before sunny conditions help propel temperatures into the upper-30s.

Sunday – very similar day to Saturday with high temperatures again in the upper-30s and mostly sunny conditions.

Monday – chance of light rain/snow mix overnight due to a passing warm front. Behind the warm front, temperatures reach well into the mid-40s with partly sunny skies.