Tag Archives: snow

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 17, 2016

Noreaster, Rain, Snow, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Meteorologically, March is a month of highly changeable weather that can swing from one extreme to another. Thus far this month, we’ve seen snow, and record warm temperatures near 80ºF. This week is no different, and it ends with the possibility for a significant coastal storm that could bring accumulating snow to the region to ring in the official start of spring!

Rest of today – warm, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-60s. An unstable atmosphere looks primed to spawn a few scattered thunderstorms. Atmospheric dynamics are supportive of strong wind gusts and possibly small hail with any storms that form this afternoon. Some of these storms could approach severe limits. Based on the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output, there look to be two batches of storms, one impacting the region around 2PM, then again around 5:30PM. At the time of this post, two storm cells were moving slowly east over southern Bergen County and the western Bronx respectively.

Screen Shot 2016-03-17 at 12.39.22 PM

Friday – temperatures cool off into the low-mid 50s tomorrow, with a slight chance again for some afternoon showers, though nothing quite as significant as today.

Saturday – an area of polar high pressure will move over southeastern Canada, setting the stage for the winter storm Sunday. Saturday, however, will be a pleasant, sunny day, but temperatures will be below average in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – all eyes turn to a developing coastal storm/Nor’easter. Forecast models are having a rough time handling this storm, with wide variances noted among some of the models from day to day. Given the uncertainty at this time, only a couple days before the expected onset of the storm, it is difficult to guess at the snowfall accumulations from this storm. One thing that is well understood at this point is that temperature profiles will support a primarily snow event, with some rain mixing in at the coast. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit 40ºF. Snow should begin in the morning, mixing with rain in the afternoon Sunday afternoon before transitioning again to all snow overnight. A slight variation in the forecast storm track either west or east could result in dramatically different snowfall totals – more updates to come.

Screen Shot 2016-03-17 at 12.40.16 PM

Monday – temperatures rebound back into the mid-40s under partly sunny skies following the passage of this late season snow storm.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 3, 2016

Climate, NYC, Snow, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , ,

As we approach spring, the weather has a tendency to swing wildly between different extremes. We start this forecast period off with accumulating snow, while by this time next week, we are expecting temperatures in the 60s!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, but cool with below average high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Friday – overnight tonight into the first half of Friday, our area will get impacted by the northern fringe of what is expected to be a powerful coastal storm. Lucky for us, high pressure north of us is sufficiently strong so as to prevent this storm from hitting us dead one, which would certainly result in a more significant snowfall event. In this case, we are expecting to see snow in the range of 1-2″ across the city and Long Island with lesser amounts further north and west. Temperatures will remain colder than nom

Screen Shot 2016-03-03 at 10.17.46 AM


StormTotalSnowWeb1

Saturday – high pressure takes control with skies clearing and temperatures in the low-40s. Another slight chance for snow Saturday night accompanies the passage of a clipper system.

Sunday – partly sunny with highs around average in the low-mid 40s.

Monday – temperatures start to warm up as the high pressure moves offshore to the east and warm, southwesterly return flow circles clockwise around its western periphery. High temperatures in the low-50s.

Warming Trend Ahead

With the aforementioned high pressure center offshore in the Atlantic early to mid-week next week, we’ll see increasingly warm temperatures, up into the 60s by Wednesday. This warm trend looks to continue over the course of the next week, with a brief cooldown late next week before what should be a warm weekend next week.

610temp.new 814temp.new

NYC Weather Update – Feb 29, 2016

Climate, NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, , , , , , , , ,

This week opens up with some very mild and spring-like weather. March will arrive like a lamb for sure. However, following a storm system moving through Wednesday, temperatures will cool off to below normal levels, with a possibility for some snow Friday! This kind of highly variable weather is typical for spring, which officially starts in just under 3 weeks time.

Rest of today –  a line of showers associated with a cold front passed through this morning and has moved well off to the east of the city. Skies have cleared up, and temperatures are rising steadily into the upper-50s. Would not be surprised to see some areas top 60ºF this afternoon.

Tuesday – despite the passage of a cold front today, temperatures don’t cool off too much tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies should yield temperatures slightly above normal in the upper-40s.

Wednesday – the next storm system moves in overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible for this storm is forecast to pass almost directly over the region early Wednesday morning. As it approaches, it will pull in warmer air from the south into its counterclockwise cyclonic flow, which will result in temperatures actually warming up overnight into the upper-40s. Temperatures will peak  Wednesday morning around 50ºF, accompanied by periods of rain. Rain should be dissipating by 2PM in the afternoon.

Screen Shot 2016-02-29 at 1.28.36 PM

Thursday – following the passage of the low pressure above, temperatures will cool off into the upper-30s fro Thursday under mostly sunny skies.

Drought Ends

The last couple months have delivered sufficient snow and rain to bust the moderate drought that had been persisting over the NYC metro area, in particular on Long Island. This is excellent news for farmers and gardeners throughout the region ahead of the upcoming growing season.

20160223_NY_trd

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 22, 2016

Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, , , , , , , ,

This week features an active weather pattern with precipitation possible from Tuesday evening through parts of Thursday. Temperatures start off below normal before rising above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, then finally dropping below normal again to end the week. A cooler than normal trend will persist into the beginning of March.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday – the weaker of two storm systems to affect the region this week will approach from the south. Chances for precipitation will increase through the afternoon and become likely overnight. Temperature profiles at the start of the event will support light rain/snow mix before transitioning to all rain for the city overnight. High temperatures should top off in the upper-30s.

Wednesday – rain likely throughout the day, increasing in coverage and intensity through the morning into the afternoon. High temperatures will be warm in the upper-40s.

Thursday – the heaviest rains with this storm system are forecast to occur during the overnight hours Wednesday going into Thursday. Showers are still possible Thursday morning with most precipitation ending during the afternoon. A warm front will pass Wednesday night, which will help support mild temperatures in mid-50s.

Screen Shot 2016-02-22 at 12.30.36 PM

Friday – a trailing cold front from the storm above passes through late Thursday, and in the wake of this cold front, skies will start clearing Friday with temperatures cooling off, and highs only around 40ºF.

Cooler to End February

A cooler than normal temperature trend is likely to occur to end the month and to start March.

610temp.new 814temp.new

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 15, 2016

Freezing Rain, NYC, Rain, Weather Update, , , , , , , ,

After a brief deep freeze, we’ll see a significant change in the weather with a complex storm system that will affect the area to start the week, bringing a mix of precipitation along with much warmer temperatures. Things quiet down by mid-week, and temperatures moderate towards more normal levels.

Rest of today – cloudy with temperatures rising into the low-mid 30s. Flurries have already begun falling in some parts of the city. Snow will become more steady and increase in coverage during the course of the afternoon. For those of you who do not have the day off, it’s shaping up to be a messy commute with snow transitioning to a wintry mix, with periods of freezing rain during the evening commute. Prior to the transition from snow, areas along the coast could pick up 1-2″ of snow, with higher totals in the interior north and west.

Screen Shot 2016-02-15 at 9.10.38 AM

Tuesday – after a brief dip in temperatures early on during the overnight hours, temperatures will actually start increasing as a warm front passes through. Since the ground itself is still quite cold due to the deep freeze this past weekend, freezing rain and wintry mix will still be lingering around until temperatures start to climb well into the mid-upper 30s. At that point, we’ll transition over to all rain, and periods of moderate to heavy rain will likely affect the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes through. Temperatures will be very warm Tuesday, with highs topping out in the mid-50s – 15-20ºF above normal for this time of year.

96fndfd_init_2016021500

Wednesday – high pressure starts to build back in after the storm system moves out Tuesday. Temperatures cool off back into the mid-40s, with clearing skies.

Thursday – cooler, with high temperature around 40ºF and sunny skies.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 8, 2016

Climate, NYC, Snow, Weather Update, , , ,

The groundhogs may end up being right, and we could get an early spring this year, but winter won’t be relinquishing its grasp this week. Multiple storms will be impacting the area throughout the first half of the week, resulting in multiple rounds of snow up through Wednesday. Luckily for us, this snow is expected to be mostly on the light side for NYC, although areas east of the city could be getting 8-10″ of snow just with today’s storm. So, if you like winter weather, and snow that you don’t have to shovel, this is your week.

Rest of today – snow showers have started falling over the city in the last hour or so. Light accumulations of 2-3″ maximum are expected in the city, with much higher totals as you move east. The city is only going to get brushed by the western fringe of this coastal storm that’s passing, and snow should taper off by 1PM today. In a very similar setup to last week’s storm, areas east of the city will get the bulk of the snow today. Temperatures will be gradually dropping during the day into the low-30s with evaporative

Screen Shot 2016-02-08 at 10.12.23 AM

Tuesday – a second storm system forms offshore of the Mid-Atlantic overnight, and spins up another round of snow for us tomorrow. Snow should start falling after daybreak, with another 1-2″ possible here in the city. High temperatures should top out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – unsettled weather continues Wednesday with the potential for more light snow during the day, although temperatures could be a little warmer in the upper-30s.

Thursday – things finally start calming down with the chances for snow diminishing, though skies will still be cloudy with high temperatures near freezing.

After Thursday, we are expecting a deep freeze with the passage of an Arctic front going into the weekend.

610temp.new

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 4, 2016

Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

We have had a very warm start to the month of February, and it sure does feel like the groundhogs were right that there will an early spring. Even if that is to be the case, we are still technically in the depths of winter, and the weather over the next couple of weeks will remind us of that fact. The end of this week and this weekend will be relatively quiet on the weather front, but looking ahead at the beginning of next week, there is a potential for a coastal storm that could bring us some more snow.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun, warm but with temperatures dropping through the 50s during the day.

Friday – the cold front that passed through yesterday will stall out at sea, but close enough to us that another impulse of low pressure moving along it could bring some light snow to southern and eastern portions of the NYC region. Light, wet, accumulating snow is possible for NYC and Long Island. Depending on the storm track, some areas of eastern Long Island could pick up 3″, while areas west closer to the city see a coating to an inch overnight. During the day Friday, temperatures will cool off noticeably into the low-40s and the winds will pick up as skies clear.

Screen Shot 2016-02-04 at 9.40.55 AM

Saturday – a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – essentially a clone of Saturday in terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny, highs in the low-mid 40s.

 

Cooling Off the Next Couple Weeks

It is technically supposed to be the coldest stretch of the year climatologically, so it makes sense that there should be some cooler temperatures coming. In fact, Climate Prediction Center does have normal to below normal temperatures (normal would be in the mid-30s) for the area the next couple of weeks.

610temp.new 814temp.new

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 29, 2016

Climate, Drought, Noreaster, NYC, Snow, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , ,

You’d be forgiven if you didn’t believe that a record-setting Nor’easter blizzard happened less than a week ago. A week of much above average temperatures and warm weather has quickly melted more than half of the snowpack that was left after the blizzard dropped 26.8″ (.1″ short of the all time record) in Central Park, breaking the single day storm total snowfall record with a new high of 26.6″. Except, of course, those huge snow mounds that are trapping your parked car. Warm weather, with high temperatures near or above 50ºF this weekend means that even more of this snow will melt away. Whatever’s left will likely be completely washed away mid-week next week when we’re expected to hit temperatures near 60ºF with thunderstorms possible.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high near 40ºF. A passing rain/snow shower caused by a weak passing disturbance in the upper atmosphere is possible this afternoon around 1PM.

Screen Shot 2016-01-29 at 10.32.45 AM

Saturday – brief clearing caused by an area of high pressure overnight will give way again to increasing clouds with high temperatures around 40ºF again.

Sunday – the high pressure moves quickly off to our east Sunday, allowing for clockwise return flow from the southwest to bring in warmer temperatures in the upper 40s under partly sunny skies.

Monday – warm temperatures continue with highs topping out around 50ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

Cooldown Coming

Don’t get too used to the warm temperatures because after mid-week next week, cold air returns to the Eastern United States for a period.

814temp.new

 

Blizzard Brings Drought Relief

One of the best parts about this blizzard was that it brought along some much needed precipitation precisely to areas of the region that most needed it. As you’ll see below, since the blizzard past the area of New York State experiencing moderate drought has decreased from 6.80% to 2.04%, largely because areas of moderate drought in the NYC region and Long Island have gotten slammed with huge amounts of snow that will be replenishing the local watersheds as it melts.

20160126_NY_trd

NYC Weekend Weather – Nor’easter Inbound – Jan 21, 2016

Noreaster, NYC, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , ,

All eyes turn towards this weekend’s Nor’easter which will bring us the most snow we’ve seen since last winter. Confidence is growing that NYC and points south could receive over a foot of snow by Sunday. In addition, forecasters anticipate that this storm will bring sustained winds of 30mph to coastal areas with gusts as high as 40-60mph leading to whiteout blizzard conditions. However, it is important to not, even at this point, 48 hours from the start of this event, that a good deal of uncertainty remains about these forecast snow totals.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures reaching into the mid-30s but a northwest wind in the 15mph range making it feel colder.

Friday – slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 30s, clouds I increasing through the day as the headline storm for the weekend approaches.

Saturday – snow should begin falling from southwest to northeast overnight Friday and continue throughout the day Saturday. Sustained northeast winds 25mph-30mph could lead to drifting and blowing snow, making for hazardous teavel conditions. Some potential exists that enough warmer air wraps into the storm off the Atlantic that some areas see a changeover to a rain/sleet/snow mix in the afternoon before transitioning back to all snow Saturday night. Total daytime accumulations are currently forecast between 3-7″. Overnight accumulations could be in the 4-8″ range.

MinSnowWeb
Minimum snowfall for this Nor’easter
StormTotalSnowWeb1
Most likely snowfall totals
MaxSnowWeb
Maximum snowfall possible with this storm


Sunday – some lingering snow showers are possible Sunday morning but conditions should improve rapidly as cloud cover decreases with the storm exiting to our east. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30s.

Monday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-30s and sunny skies.

Complicating Factors for Forecasting the Nor’easter

  • Model divergence – European models favor a solution that has the storm moving quicker and further south than US based models. This scenario would result in minimal snow for NYC, hence why the minimum snow forecast is only 2″.
  • Unpredictable snow bands – as we are all too aware from last year’s fiasco of subway shutdowns in anticipation for a blizzard that didn’t materialize, when it comes to Nor’easter type storms, where, when, and for how long deformation banding features (heavy bands of snow) set up will make or break a snowfall total forecast in either direction. However, these types of mesoscale banding features are not easy to predict with confidence before they actually start forming. Should parts of our region fall under one of these banding features where snow could be falling at rates of 1″+ per hour, you could easily see total snowfall forecasts be shattered.
  • Intrusion of warm air – if enough warm air works its way into this storm off the warm waters of the Atlantic (where above normal temperatures thus far this winter have kept the sea surface temperatures abnormally warm), then some areas could see a rain/sleet mix for periods of time. Forecasters are overall confident the window for this mixing is small enough that overall totals won’t be dented too much, though.
lowtrack_ensembles
The closer this storm center tracks to the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, the better the chances become for our are to get a lot of snow. Climatologically, Nor’easters that track closest to this benchmark have been the biggest snowmakers for the NYC region.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 18, 2016

Noreaster, NYC, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, , , , , , , , ,

Weather to start this week will be rather uneventful, predominantly featuring windy, cold days, but little in the way of precipitation. We did get our first dusting of snow so far this winter in the city last night, and the potential for significantly more exists with a possible Nor’easter coming this weekend. As always, even though we’re within a week of this event, our local forecast office is only forecasting with 30% confidence due to the large changes in impact that even small fluctuations in storm track and intensity could bring.

Rest of today – we’ve already hit high temperatures for the day around 30ºF. A tight pressure gradient is causing breezy west winds near 20mph translating to wind chill values in the 10-15ºF range.

Tuesday – basically a repeat of today, but with slightly stronger winds. High temperatures will be in the upper-20s to around 30ºF with west winds in the 20-25mph leading to wind chills in the single digits to low teens under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – warmer, with high temperatures closer to normal in the mid-30s, calmer winds and sunny skies. There could be some flurries Wednesday night with a passing clipper system, but no accumulation is expected in the city.

Thursday – mostly sunny again with high temperatures in the mid-30s.

 

Possible Nor’easter This Friday – Saturday

Looking ahead towards the end of the week, there is a possibility for the first significant snowfall event in the NYC region thus far this winter. Forecasters are keeping close tabs on the possible formation of a classic Nor’easter towards the end of this week. It is important to stress that even at this point in time, there’s still considerable uncertainty about how this scenario will unfold. A deviation in the track of this coastal low too far north would result in a mainly rain event along the coast, while a deviation too far south would mean significantly less precipitation. If this scenario plays out under optimal conditions, our region would be in the northwest quadrant of this low, an area that favors the development of heavy snow. Even then, as was the case a couple winters ago, slight changes to the track and position of the heaviest snow bands could mean the difference between 5″ of snow or over a foot. Stay tuned for updates.

Screen Shot 2016-01-18 at 1.18.21 PM