Tag Archives: snow

NYC Weather Update – Jan 11, 2016

This week will feature below normal temperatures for the most part, with a chance at some snow showers for the first time this winter coming along with an Alberta clipper type system tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. Later on this week into the weekend, we are looking at a more potent and complex storm system that could bring a mix of precipitation to the area.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with scattered clouds and a high temperature in the mid-30s. A breezy day with west winds in the 15-20mph range.

Tuesday – partly sunny to start the day, with high temperatures hitting the upper-30s to about 40ºF. Snow flurries/rain could mix together in the afternoon. As temperatures drop after sunset, precipitation should transition to all snow. Due to the quick moving nature of this clipper system, we’re not really expecting any accumulating snow.

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Wednesday – following the passage of the clipper system, winds pick up again from the west in the 15-20mph range, delivering a cold day with partly sunny skies and high temperatures right about freezing.

Thursday – slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid-30s, and a calmer wind so not as much of a biting cold.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 28, 2015

After an absurdly warm start to the winter, we are about to get a dose of proper weather for this time of year. While temperatures this week and the first half of January will still above normal in many cases, they will be considerably cooler than December and be closer to normal than not. This week, we start with a messy and complex storm (the same that spawned deadly tornadoes in Texas and has brought blizzard conditions to New Mexico, and an ice storm to Oklahoma) that affects the area tonight into Tuesday with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow, depending on how far north you are. Yet another round rain and snow further north from the city is possible Wednesday.

Rest of today – seasonably cool with high temperatures only in the low-mid 40s. Increasing clouds ahead of a warm front that will be the focus for the precipitation later tonight. Things get interesting overnight as precipitation begins to spread over the area from southwest to northeast. Near the coast, surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough (upper-30s) to largely preclude the possibility of significant wintry precipitation, however, sleet could mix in with rain to at the start of this storm before things shift over to all rain. Further west and north will be another story, with areas expecting anything between .25″ of ice to 2-4″ of snow/sleet accumulation before rain starts falling.

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Tuesday – as temperatures warm with daybreak, wintry precipitation should transition entirely to rain. Rain is expected to last throughout most of the morning into the early afternoon hours. East winds ahead of the warm front mentioned above will be in the 15-20mph range before shifting to the north. High temperatures in the city are expected to hit the upper-40s to around 50ºF.

Wednesday – we’ll get another shot at rain as the cold front railing the warm front pictured above pushes through late on Wednesday into the overnight hours. Despite increasing clouds, forecasts still call for high temperatures in the low-50s.

Thursday – a lingering chance of rain remains on the backside of the cold front. High temperatures are expected to be about the same as Wednesday near 50.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 27, 2015

We got a taste of what high temperatures should be like for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold front that has since moved through will set the stage for a return to below normal temperatures to start the weekend. With a low pressure center well to our east possibly spawning an inverted trough, there is some possibility for light rain/snow mix overnight Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday and we go into next week with about normal temperatures right around 50.

Rest of today – a noticeably colder night on tap with northwesterly winds in the wake of that aforementioned cold front allowing for low temperatures to dip to about freezing. Any lingering precipitation would manifest itself as rain/snow mix, with points further east having a higher chance of seeing wet snow.

Saturday – a much colder than average day, with high temperatures only hitting the mid-upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal. Cloudy, windy, and raw, with snow showers possible early (accumulation unlikely), and rain showers later.

We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off  of southern Nova Scotia.
We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.

Sunday – things clear up nicely as that low pressure keeps pulling off to the east. Temperatures rebound a bit into the low 40s, which is still well below average.

Monday – a continued warmup ahead of a dry cold front, with high temperatures topping out around 50 under increasingly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – a pleasant, seasonable day with high temperatures in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies as high pressure comes into control.

The next chance at precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving clipper system.

Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.
Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 18, 2015

Just when we thought winter was on its last legs, and spring was on its way. Unfortunately, as the Climate Prediction Center forecast a couple weeks ago, a cool down is in the cards to end the month of March. In fact, it will get so cold that snow could accumulate Friday into Friday night. After a brief warmup, another shot of colder than normal air will return to grip the area to end off the month.

Thursday –  a below normal, but dry day with plenty of sun and high near 40.

Friday – (ironically, first day of astronomical spring) a coastal low moving offshore of the Carolinas will then track north. Enough cold air will be in place Friday, along with a persistent northerly flow with counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure center that snow is looking likely during the course of the day. Current forecast snow accumulations are on the light side, no more than 3-4″. If temperatures are even a few degrees warmer than currently forecast, we could get away with little accumulation.

Friday's storm
Friday’s storm

Saturday – things clear up quickly on Saturday with high temperatures back near normal in the mid-upper 40s.

Sunday – a dry cold front moves through Sunday, leading to a drop in temperatures to below normal in the upper 30s.

Cool Off Coming Up

The climate prediction center continues to point to cooler than normal temperatures for the last two weeks of March. One can only hope that the temperatures are not so cold as to allow for more snow, but I wouldn’t rule this possibility entirely out given some of the longer term forecast models.

6-10 temperature outlook
6-10 temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook

NYC Weather Update – Mar 5, 2015

Today may be the last major winter storm of the winter for us. It certainly has been an eventful and cold winter for the books. We’ll end the week and start off this weekend and early next week with below normal temperatures, but temperatures will rise steadily throughout next week, such that we should be back to normal temperatures in the mid-upper 40s by the end of next week.

Rest of today – snow is already tapering off over the area, with widespread snowfall totals of between 4-8″ reported (largely in line with forecasts). Any remaining precipitation should completely clear the area within the next couple of hours. Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 4.58.33 PM

Friday – we endure what we all hope will be the last day of temperatures in the low-mid 20s as cold, dry air filters in behind this storm system.

Saturday – high pressure moves in over the weekend, with temperatures Saturday edging up to around freezing.

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Sunday – fair weather continues, but perhaps with more clouds on Sunday as some weak impulses of energy move over areas well to the north of NYC. High temperatures will increase to the low 40s.

Monday – the warming trend continues as spring approaches, high temperatures continue to warm into the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.

Finally leaving the Arctic air behind?

A large scale warming trend is forecast to take hold over much of the US during the medium term. Temperatures next week should warm progressively such that by next Friday, we’ll be looking at (gasp) high temperatures near 50. The week after, on the cusp of spring, almost the entirety of the Continental US is forecast to experience warmer than normal temperatures, with the exception of Texas, and New York into Southern New England. However, we are forecast to be in normal range of temperatures for this time of year, which means mid-upper 40s. Not quite flip flops and t-shirt weather, but a positive trend nonetheless.

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NYC Weather Update – Mar 2, 2015

March will start off with quite an active, messy week for us. During the middle of the week, we’ll see snow, rain, and then more snow, before we end off the week with temperatures well below normal once again.

Tuesday – clouds will begin to increase throughout the day with chances for snowfall increasingly steadily as well. Not much in the way of accumulating snow is expected during the day Tuesday. High temperatures around 30.

Wednesday – overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures will actually rise as a warm front pushes through. This will allow temperatures on Wednesday to top 40. Snow early on will give way to sleet, then eventually transition to all rain. This period of rain should melt some of the existing snowpack, and there could be some minor/nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas as this occurs.

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Thursday – once the cold front depicted above pushes through late Wednesday, cold air will rapidly fill in behind it and allow for temperatures to drop back into the mid-20s. As this occurs, a second wave of low pressure is expected to form over the Mid-Atlantic and move over the area. This may lead to enough precipitation to warrant a Winter Storm Warning, with 6″ of snow possible by Thursday afternoon. Highs will be near 30. gfs_namer_066_1000_850_thick

 

Friday – as these storms finally move away, Friday will be a sunny day, but with Arctic air back in place over the area, we’ll be once again welcoming high temperatures in the mid-20s, which at this point is over 15 degrees below normal.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2015

Another cold weekend is on tap for the area, before the start of a week of active weather. It does appear that March will be coming in like a lion this year.

Rest of today – some sun, with a chance for light flurries and a high in the mid-20s.

Friday – diminishing clouds with a high temperature again in the mid-20s. High pressure begins building to our west, yielding northwesterly winds that will allow chilly, Arctic air to filter back into the area. Overnight lows Friday will be in the low teens.

Saturday – with high pressure to our west still firmly in control, it will be a sunny, but cold day, with highs again only in the mid-20s.

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Sunday – clouds will be increasing ahead of an approaching storm system and as high pressure exits to the east. There will be a slight warmup ahead of the storm, with temperatures topping out near freezing. Snow likely overnight, although significant accumulations are not expected.

Monday – temperatures will warm potentially into the low 40s on Monday as warm air from the southwest gets pulled into the storm system. There may be some mixed precipitation along the coastal plain, with all snow elsewhere, mostly early in the day.9khwbg_conusTuesday – following the passage of the storm on Monday, temperatures dip back to around freezing, ahead of another storm system that will be impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm has a greater potential significant precipitation.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 24, 2015

After that brief “warmup” during the weekend, we’re once again mired in Arctic cold air. This cold trend continues with a reinforcing shot of cold air as a cold front sweeps through Wednesday. Behind that, high pressure builds in over the area for the end of the week and into the weekend, ensuring another prolonged stretch of chilly, much below normal temperatures.

Wednesday – ahead of what will a dry cold front passing through, high temperatures may be able to climb to just about the freezing mark under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – once the cold front moves offshore, an area of low pressure will strengthen, but remain well offshore of the area. However, precipitation may still make its way over the region, especially the far eastern areas. There’ll be a chance for snow flurries further west in the city. Temperatures will be back in the mid-20s again in the wake of that cold front.gfs_namer_060_1000_850_thick

Friday – clearing skies will be accompanied by stagnant cold temperatures with highs again in the mid-20s.

Saturday – as you’ll se below, a strong 1040mb area of high pressure will be parked over the Ohio Valley will be responsible for the sunny, but cold temperatures through at least Saturday night. Highs Saturday may approach 30ºF. Normal highs for this time of the year are closer to 40ºF.gfs_namer_093_1000_850_thickLooking Ahead

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Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 4th to March 10th, with our region in an area expected to experience below normal temperatures.

The beginning of next week looks to feature a fairly active pattern, with two storm systems passing through, one on Monday, and another on Wednesday. With the current track of the second storm, it looks like we are going to be on the south side of the low pressure center. This would allow for warmer air to wrap into the area. We could top 40ºF again, but the tradeoff will be a slushy, wet day maybe with some mixed precipitation to start. Once this second storm passes through, we return to cold temperatures once again.

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 16, 2015

Sunday night’s lows were the coldest of the year thus far, indicative of the coldest airmass to hit the area in recent memory. Again, according to climatology, the last time New York City itself hit a low of zero was in January 1994. Unfortunately, the cold snap does not show any signs of abating during the week, although the first half of the week will see daytime high temperatures in the mid-upper 20s as opposed to the teens. We’ll finish the week off back into the teens before a warmup to above freezing with an approaching storm system this weekend. Behind that – you guessed it, another round of arctic air and abnormally cold temperatures.

Rest of today – cold and overcast, with high temperatures not even getting to 20 in the city. Snow should begin falling overnight, with generally light accumulations by daybreak.

Tuesday – slightly warmer with high temperatures in the mid 20s, but also with a chance for snow as a storm system now dumping snow across a vast swath of the South passes well to the south of us. We could still end up picking up 2-5″ of snow in the city, with higher amounts along the south facing shores of Long Island and minimal accumulation north of I-84.

Snowfall total forecast for Tuesday
Snowfall total forecast for Tuesday

Wednesday – a weak cold front will pass through Wednesday, and may give us a small chance for light snow, otherwise, expecting cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid-upper 20s.

Thursday – behind that cold front, we get our next shot of Arctic air, with overnight lows into Thursday struggling to hit 10 in the city, and zero and below in outlying inland areas. Daytime highs will only be in the mid-teens despite ample sun. Thursday night, we might get another shot at low temperatures hitting zero in the city, with lows below zero across most inland locations.

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Friday – basically a repeat of Thursday, sunny but with brutally cold temperatures in the mid-teens.

Over the weekend – watching for the development of a storm system that could bring some wintry mix/freezing rain to the area, but finally give us a break from below freezing temperatures.

More Cold on Tap to End February

After the weekend storm, we get yet another reinforcing blast of Arctic air to end the month of February. Below, you’ll see the Climate Prediction Center‘s 8-14 day outlook spanning February 23 – March 1. We’re in a region with a greater than 60% probability of experiencing below average temperatures for this period.

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook for Feb 23 - Mar 1
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook for Feb 23 – Mar 1

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 12, 2015

The main headline for the upcoming weekend and into next week will be the very cold airmass that will be spreading over the region, bringing with it what will likely be the coldest temperatures we’ve seen thus far this year. The coldest period over this stretch will be overnight Sunday into Monday, when low temperatures in the city could touch zero. If that does happen, it would be the first time the city has hit zero or below since January of 1994, according to National Weather Service records!

Friday – there will be a noticeable difference in daytime temperatures versus today. High temperatures are going to struggle to even hit the upper teens in the city, once the cold front responsible for the off and on flurries today passes through tonight. Overnight lows will again be in the low teens in the city, and colder in outlying suburbs.

Saturday – another clipper-type system will move quickly through the area on Saturday, setting off a period of snow showers that could end up dropping 1-2″ across the region. High temperatures will warm up slightly – if you can call a high near 30 a warm up! Overnight, winds will begin to pick up, with wind chills between -5ºF to -15ºF.

Sunday – a stiff northwest wind will pick up. The clipper system that passes Saturday will rapidly intensify as it moves over the Atlantic. This will set up an increasingly tight pressure gradient with a high pressure center over the Great Lakes. This setup will swing the door wide open for Arctic air to blast into the region. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid-teens in the city, and overnight lows may be as cold as zero or just below zero. Regardless, the sustained northwest winds will yield wind chill values between -15ºF to -25ºF.

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Monday, President’s Day – sunny skies, but that Arctic airmass will still be very much in control, with temperatures struggling to hit 20.

Tuesday – a return to temperatures near freezing again with an approaching low pressure system that will deliver our next chance at precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday.