As we spring forward this Sunday, our weather pattern finally takes a step forwards towards spring as well. Rain will accompany this warmup, then we start next week with temperatures close to average for this time of year.
Rest of today – Increasing clouds as an area of low pressure moves offshore well to our south. High temperatures in the upper-30s. A 500 mb (upper level) shortwave trough passing through overnight could provide enough lift for some scattered flurries. Lows dipping to around freezing.
Saturday – High temperatures in the mid-40s with lots of sun as high pressure temporarily exerts its influence. Overnight lows in the mid-30s. Rain starts overnight going into Sunday as a storm system draws near.
Weather Prediction surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – rain during the morning with improving conditions later. Overcast to start with cloud cover decreasing as the storm departs to the east. High temperatures around 50°F. Overnight lows in around 40°F
Monday – sunny and seasonable with highs in the upper-40s. Overnight lows cooler than Sunday in the mid-30s.
The weather headline for this weekend will be our first accumulating snow of the season! Aside from this, below average and cold temperatures will be in place throughout the weekend and well into next week. This persistent cold spell has a direct link to high pressure over the western US that has resulted in fires in California. Another chance for additional accumulating snow is possible early next week.
Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies. Snow beginning in the overnight hours into tomorrow.
Saturday – snow throughout the day, accumulations of largely between 2-4″ during the day expected in the city, but with higher totals moving east, in the 4-6″ range for parts of Queens, and Brooklyn. High temperatures in the low-30s.
A coastal storm will develop and strengthen off the Southeast coast as an upper level shortwave and a jet streak work to enhance it. The jet streak in particular will provide strong lift for the development of snow showers. Thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere in our region will support all snow. Model trends seem to continue nudging the track westward over the past couple of days. Further shifts west would result in higher snowfall totals, which are suggested by the GEFs plumes in the last image in this section that point a range of 6-8″ of snow for LGA.
Weather Prediction Center surface low tracks and clusters. Focus on the coastal low track. The mean track takes this storm very close to the 40°N 70°W benchmark, a location for coastal low centers that generally translates to robust snowfall for winter storms.
Sunday – an additional accumulation of an inch or so is forecast overnight Saturday as snow begins tapering off going into Sunday. As the low pulls away, winds will turn to the west and strengthen. High temperatures will actually be somewhat warmer in the upper-30s with mostly sunny skies.
Monday – mostly sunny skies again with high temperatures around 40°F.
The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of Isla de Juventud in Cuba. The formation of TD Eighteen has implications on the forecast for Sunday’s storm as a complex scenario is set to unfold.
Impacts: forecasters are anticipating a high wind, and heavy rain event coming up. Storm total rainfall of 2-4″ and possibly higher could lead to urban and small stream flooding. The amount of rainfall over a short period of time has led our local forecast office to issue flash flood watches for much of the region. Winds will pick up as well, backing from the south to southeast, east, and eventually to north and northwest. Wind gusts could become a problem for local airports and for poor travel conditions in general. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.
Timing: Winds are already increase today, and cloud cover will do so as well as the day progresses. Chances for rain will increase in the overnight hours, probably after 2-3AM. The strongest wind gusts will actually come on the back side of the storm going into Monday as it intensifies and the pressure gradient increases.
Discussion: a complicated set up is unfolding with a longwave trough (on the left) draping from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Meixco interacting with a developing closed low over the Tennessee Valley, and TD Eighteen. TD Eighteen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm, which would be named Phillippe if it did form. The effect of this will be to provide a conveyor of warm and moist air from the tropics up to our area. This will help feed the developing non-tropical low forming over the southeast. This low will become the primary rainmaker, and the tropical system (whether a depression or storm) will eventually merge with it. Plenty of instability to fuel a growing storm! The pressure gradient will tighten as this storm strengthens and departs eastward, and that will be the reason for a gusty start to the work week.
Quite a contrast in temperatures this week with an active weather pattern that holds chances for precipitation nearly every day of the week. Temperatures will generally range a few degrees below normal. Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, weather could be a mixed bag with some rain chances for Sunday and Monday.
Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with steadier rains moving through the afternoon hours into the early evening accompanying the passage of a cold front. High temperatures around 60ºF.
Tuesday – drier with only a slight chance of showers late in the day as another weak disturbance moves by south of region. High temperature around 70ºF and mostly cloudy skies.
Wednesday – scattered showers possible throughout the day. High temperatures again near 70ºF.
Thursday – a warm front and an accompanying low pressure system pass over the area Thursday bringing another chance for widespread rain. Temperatures in the upper-60s under mostly cloudy skies.
Another rainy weekend on tap for the Tri-State area as a Nor’easter takes aim at the Mid-Atlantic and New England just in time to put a damper on Mother’s Day plans. Luckily for us, rain on actual Mother’s Day should be limited to the morning hours. Next week, we’re looking forward to a big warm up in temperatures.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures topping out in the low-60s.
Saturday – a Nor’easter moves in on the area overnight into Saturday. Expect raw, windy, rainy conditions for the duration of the day. There could be periods of moderate to heavy rain along with east/east-northeast winds in the 15mph with stronger gusts. High temperatures with the onshore flow, clouds, and rain only expected to reach the low-50s.
Sunday (Mother’s Day) – rains clear up earlier in the day, but we’re still left with a windy and cloudy day. The tradeoff is warmer temperatures in the mid-60s.
Monday – partly sunny skies with improving conditions and high temperatures in the mid-60s.
Warmup Ahead
Starting Tuesday, temperatures begin to warm up significantly with a shift in our weather pattern. A summer-like Bermuda high sets up and pumps in warm air from the south into the area, resulting in temperatures above to well-above normal (some 80s possible late week).
This weekend brings a drastic change in temperature from the last, with high temperatures fully 20°F cooler. Not only that, but a slow moving upper low pressure system will induce multiple rounds of rain resulting in an extended period of unsettled weather for the area. The most substantial rain occurs Friday. Temperatures remain 5-8°F below normal during this stretch which continues into next week.
Rest of today – enjoy the bright sun shine while it lasts. With high pressure still in control, expect mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the low-60s.
Friday – the same storm system that has been impacting the mid-Mississippi Valley with flooding rains starts to move into our region Friday. Steady rains and embedded thunderstorms throughout the day could bring a total of 1-2″ of rainfall totals. The band of heaviest rains appears likely to cross into the city around 11AM. Temperatures will be about the same as today, in the low-60s, under mostly cloudy skies.
Saturday – unfortunately, due to the slow moving nature of the low pressure system responsible for the rain Friday, there remains a lingering chance for rain Saturday, particular late in the day and into the evening. Temperatures remain cool in the low-60s.
Sunday – improving conditions, with rain chances finally diminishing. There could be some breaks for sun, with high temperatures hovering at just about 60°F.
Drought Almost Totally Gone, Cooler Temperatures Prevail
With all of the plentiful spring rains, only a very small slice of the Hudson Valley remains under abnormally dry conditions. Meanwhile, Climate Prediction Center points to cooler conditions continuing into the next 6-10 days.
Today through mid-week, we will see mostly cloudy weather, along with soaking rains Tuesday which will also feature temperatures much below normal. Later in the week and into the weekend, we will see a warm up into summer-like weather that should last into the weekend as well. A Bermuda high sets up, a pattern more typical of late June. I will be in Cuba until May 2nd so this will be my last update for the next week at a minimum.
Rest of today – cloudy, high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain developing late and into the overnight Tuesday.
Tuesday – soaking and steady rainfall accompanying a slow moving coastal storm looks set to impact the area for the entirety of Tuesday. Along with this rain, a raw east to northeast wind will make the high temperatures in the low-50s feel even chillier.
Wednesday – showers may linger as Tuesday’s storm slowly pulls away to the east. Temperatures rebound nicely into the mid-60s, could go a touch warmer if clouds break up a bit.
Thursday – a warming trend begins on Thursday with temperatures climbing into the low-70s and mostly sunny skies.
It certainly does feel as though Memorial Day 2015 has been the unofficial start of summer, given the warm and humid temperatures we’ve had from Sunday onwards. The warm, late-June like temperature trend continues through mid-week, with some chance for thunderstorms. Rain in any form would be most welcome, given that the region has been placed in a region of moderate drought as of this week.
Rest of today – the Bermuda high, more typical of mid-summer, brings us very warm and humid high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, more than 15ºF above average for this time of year. If you like the heat, go out and enjoy it because we might see showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Wednesday – a weak cold front approaches from the west, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The critical question for NYC will be how long organized storms can stay together as they enter into influence of cooler, maritime air nearer to the coast. Temperatures will remain warm in the low-mid 80s with clouds and some breaks of sun. As is generally the case in these setups, the more sun we can get in the afternoon ahead of the frontal bou
North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for 8PM EST Wednesday
Thursday – we get another shot at thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs likely topping out around 80 under mostly cloudy skies.
Moderate Drought for the Region Forecast to Persist
We’ve had an remarkable run of sunny, rain-free days, and above average temperatures for much of May (and indeed even going back a couple of months), and while that’s translated to pleasant weather for outdoor activities, it also has meant that we’ve entered into a stretch of moderate drought. We had a stretch of no rain for 23 consecutive days, earlier this month, which definitely didn’t help things. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, Central Park recorded 7.12″ of rain from March 1st through May 19th, which is only about 63% of average for this time of year.
While we are only in the lowest tier of drought and were just added to this category this week, these drought conditions bear watching. We hope to get some rain out of this week, and it looks like more storms are on the way this weekend, however, the drought forecast for our region looks to have the drought persist through this summer.
The weekend gets off to a wet start, with rain beginning overnight and Saturday a complete washout. By Sunday, conditions will improve and there will be a slight warmup to start the week, before we return to below normal temperatures by mid-week next week.
Rest of Today – increasing clouds will be a precursor for rain later in the overnight hours. If you plan on being out past midnight (really more like 2AM), grab an umbrella just in case. The bulk of the rain doesn’t look to begin until after 2AM, however, once it starts, it will be essentially continuous until Saturday evening. Prior to the passage of a warm front late overnight into Saturday morning, overnight lows may be cold enough to support some mixing of sleet for a brief period in the city. There is actually a freezing rain advisory for northern areas, where a colder thermal profile could support some freezing rain.
Simulated radar image for 3AM EST, Saturday, Mar 14, 2015. High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.
Saturday – it will actually be a mild day on Saturday subsequent to the passage of the warm front mentioned above. Any freezing rain/sleet that occurs early in the morning will quickly transition to rain, increasing in intensity during the morning. High temperatures near 50, combined with drenching rain, should be enough to finally washout any remaining snowpack near the city (although places like Long Island that got more snow this season will probably see it persist).
Sunday – there could be a couple remaining sprinkles Sunday morning, but overall, this should be a dry day, partly sunny, and breezy day. High temperatures will be near normal around the mid-40s.
Monday – it’ll be a nice day Monday with a warm front passing through, and high temperatures in the normal range near 50.
Tuesday – another day of normal temperatures near 50. A cold front pass through by Wednesday, which will lead to a cooler than normal day.
March will start off with quite an active, messy week for us. During the middle of the week, we’ll see snow, rain, and then more snow, before we end off the week with temperatures well below normal once again.
Tuesday – clouds will begin to increase throughout the day with chances for snowfall increasingly steadily as well. Not much in the way of accumulating snow is expected during the day Tuesday. High temperatures around 30.
Wednesday – overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures will actually rise as a warm front pushes through. This will allow temperatures on Wednesday to top 40. Snow early on will give way to sleet, then eventually transition to all rain. This period of rain should melt some of the existing snowpack, and there could be some minor/nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas as this occurs.
Thursday – once the cold front depicted above pushes through late Wednesday, cold air will rapidly fill in behind it and allow for temperatures to drop back into the mid-20s. As this occurs, a second wave of low pressure is expected to form over the Mid-Atlantic and move over the area. This may lead to enough precipitation to warrant a Winter Storm Warning, with 6″ of snow possible by Thursday afternoon. Highs will be near 30.
Friday – as these storms finally move away, Friday will be a sunny day, but with Arctic air back in place over the area, we’ll be once again welcoming high temperatures in the mid-20s, which at this point is over 15 degrees below normal.
