Tag Archives: storms

NYC Weather Update – Jan 28, 2015

January 28, 2015NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weekendarctic air, arctic front, cold, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, storms, weather, wind chillLei Zhao

On the heels of the nor’easter earlier this week, we get another chance at snow tomorrow night into Friday, albeit of a much lighter intensity. Things get downright frigid after that with low temperatures Friday night in the single digits in the city, and wind chills below zero! The cold locks in over the weekend before we get another chance at precipitation to start off next week, continuing what has been an active weather pattern.

Thursday – clouds increase from west to east, with high temperatures hovering just above freezing. Precipitation begins overnight, and may include some rain/snow mix at the coast (all snow inland), but with minimal accumulations.

We get clipped by a clipper system Thursday night into Friday, with both NAM and GFS models pointing to us being on the periphery of the heavier precipitation.

Friday – light flurries continue into the morning Friday before ending, skies clear quickly while temperatures begin nosediving from a high in the mid-30s during the morning hours to the upper teens by sunset. Winds also pick up from the north and northwest as the departing clipper system from above deepens and the pressure gradient increases between it and a high pressure center over the Midwest. The combination of the cold temperatures and winds will likely induce wind chills below zero, so bundle up before you go out there Friday night.

Saturday – the deep freeze continues, with high temperatures only in the low 20s Saturday despite plenty of sunshine.

Sunday – another day of decent conditions, with clouds increase, but still cold with highs in the upper 20s. Sunday night into Monday, we get another shot at precipitation, although it’s a bit too early to nail down the specifics of this upcoming storm (whether it’ll be rain/snow, rain, or just snow, and how much).

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Dec 19, 2014

December 19, 2014NYC, Precipitation Type, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendchristmas weather, high pressure, low pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, storms, weather, weekend weather, white christmas, wxLei Zhao

This weekend will feature about normal temperatures for mid-December, with a small chance of rain/snow on Sunday. Relatively quiet weather during the weekend will give way to an active weather pattern for the first half of next week, with a robust storm system arriving Christmas Eve (all rain, sadly, so no white Christmas for us here in NYC).

Saturday – high pressure currently in control of the weather will erode as it moves east. Clouds cover will increase with high temperatures around 40.

Sunday – easterly winds off the ocean in the wake of high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada will bring some slight chance for precipitation. The lower atmosphere is fairly dry, and is not primed with moisture for precipitation. If precipitation does materialize, temperature profiles are low enough that some snow flakes could be seen, but the overall impact will be negligible. High temperatures will be in the low 40s with cloudy skies.

Monday – a significant storm system will be approaching our region from the Central Plains. Forecast models point to a primary low pressure center over the interior of the country while a secondary low forms along the coast. Ahead of this storm system, some scattered showers could pass over the area Monday. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy day with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Tuesday – coverage of precipitation will increase on Tuesday as that secondary low pressure center draws closer to the area. Warmer, marine air will be in place before a warm front passes over. This should ensure that temperature profiles remain warm enough to preclude the possibility of snow. Temperatures may rise to as high as the 50 degree mark Tuesday.

This early-mid week storm will cause some travel headaches for Christmas, but fortunately, it does appear the majority of precipitation will be in the form of rain.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 20, 2014

October 20, 2014Noreaster, NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Updatecoastal low, cold, gfs, nam, new england, noreaster, northeast, rain, rainfall, storms, thunderstorms, vorticity, windLei Zhao

This week will be a colder repeat of last week, with a wet mid-week period, but better conditions going into the weekend.

Tuesday – an area of low pressure with an accompanying cold front moving in from the Great Lakes will give us a chance of showers, especially in the afternoon Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm up to the mid-upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the low pressure above will spawn a secondary low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. This low pressure center will be the main weather-maker for the mid-week period. Forecast models point to a stubborn storm system that will meander slowly off the Northeast. Multiple bands of rain will rotate around this low. There will be enough instability with the vorticity associated with the low to allow for the possibility of thunderstorms, despite the fact that this low will be a colder core low. Temperatures will only be in the upper 50s with a unpleasant north to northeast wind.

gfs_namer_054_1000_850_thick — GFS model output for Wednesday, Oct 22, 2014 @ 8PM EDT

gfs_namer_069_500_vort_ht — GFS 500mb vorticity and height – notice the concentric circles indicating a closed low off the coast of the Northeast and New Engalnd. The darker yellows indicate areas of increased vorticity and energy.

Thursday – the rain should subside by around noon Thursday, but before all is said and done, we could get another 1-1.5″ of rain. The rainfall will mainly be concentrated to the east of the Hudson River, including NYC and Long Island. Temperatures will remain cool in the mid-50s with winds diminishing from the north and northwest.

Friday – the low will lift away, it will dry out, and clouds will diminish as temperatures also rebound back into the lower 60s to end the week.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 22, 2014

August 22, 2014NYC, Outside of NYC, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend2014 atlantic hurricane season, cristobal, hurricane season, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc weather, nyc wx, storms, tropical storm, tropical storms, ts cristobal, weather update, weekend weather, weekend wxLei Zhao

We had a solid round of rain from some showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area overnight. Over the weekend, high pressure will start to build into the area, ushering in a period of calm, pleasant, and seasonable weather.

Saturday & Sunday – clouds will diminish later Saturday, and by Sunday we’ll see mostly clear skies. Both days will feature high temperatures around 80.

Monday – as you see below, by Monday an area of high pressure will be firmly entrenched over our region. This high pressure area will persist through the middle of the week, giving us fair conditions and pleasant highs in the low 80s.

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 12.38.19 PM — High pressure firmly entrenched in the Northeast for the beginning of next week.

Tuesday & Wednesday will look and feel essentially the same with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Our next chance of rain will be later in the week, perhaps Thursday into Friday with the arrival of a cold front from the west.

In the Tropics

There’s a tropical disturbance currently positioned offshore of Puerto Rico that will very likely become the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s third named storm, Cristobal. You can already begin to see the storm organizing, as over the last day or so, a circulation has become evident, and strong thunderstorms are forming in the northern semicircle are also apparent (see the classic cauliflower tops). Outflow bands are also forming up (thin wispy clouds north and northeast of the center).

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 12.49.40 PM — High resolution satellite image of the tropical disturbance

This storm will fell some negative impacts from the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. As you can see, the southern semicircle is considerably less organized than the northern.

As for the track of the storm, you can see the rather large spread between the different forecast models, which is not surprising given that the storm is still in its early stages. Note that there is an outlier model solution showing landfall on the Mid-Atlantic. This is unlikely at this point, but worth noting. It seems, given the conditions ahead of the storm, that this will become Tropical Storm Cristobal in the next couple days, and may become Hurricane Cristobal shortly thereafter.

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Apr 11, 2014

April 11, 2014NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendgulf, heavy rain, nyc, rain storm, storms, warm, weather, weather update, weekendLei Zhao

We’re going to have a splendid weekend weather-wise in the NYC region. There will be some rain later this evening and into the overnight hours, but things should dry up before sunrise Saturday. High temperatures today will be comfortable in the mid to upper 60s, with western portions of the region possibly topping 70. The south wind will tend to keep inland areas warmer than coastal portions where the wind will be bringing in colder air off the Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are still only in the 40s.

Projected radar reflectivity for about 8PM EST, when we can expect the bulk of the rain for Friday night.

Once the rain lifts out, Saturday is shaping up to be a gorgeous day, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s in NYC. Inland areas again will see even higher temperatures with highs near or above 70, while eastern portions of Long Island will see temperatures in the lower 60s due to the continuing cooling influence of southerly winds off the ocean.

Southerly winds will continue to usher in increasingly warm and moist air Sunday with high temperatures in the low 70s inland and in western portions of the region, mid-upper 60s in NYC, and cooler temperatures in the east and coastal CT.

Monday will be the warmest day of the stretch, with highs easily topping 70 area-wide, again with the exception of coastal waters in eastern Long Island and CT. Dense fog may develop overnight Sunday due to the increasingly saturated air mass moving into the area.

Tuesday will be a messy day with a strong cold front moving in from our west. Temperatures will be significantly cooler, with highs probably only in the mid-50s. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a significant rainfall event. This sharply tilted cold front is associated with a strong low-level jet streak, which will help usher in very moist air from the Gulf.

Note the extremely meridional (north-south) orientation of air flow on Tuesday, indicating a strong frontal boundary

Check out the swath of forecast total of 2.5"+ of rainfall Monday-Tuesday in our area! — Check out the swath of forecast total of 2.5″+ of rainfall Monday-Tuesday in our area!

After Tuesday, get ready for a serious cooldown, as temperatures behind this strong cold front will only be in the mid-upper 40s!

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 4, 2014

April 4, 2014NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, gif, nyc, rain, satellite, storms, weather, weekendLei Zhao

A chilly start to the weekend as we have cold easterly winds off the ocean, and a deck of clouds overhead. Rain will pick up in coverage and intensity as the day goes on, and it promises to be more or less a washout tonight.

Cloud deck building over the area, bulk of the actual rain is still off to our west over Central PA

Fortunately, the frontal system responsible for the rain will clear out of the area by Saturday. Sunny conditions will prevail, with winds turning from the east to the west and picking up to 15-20mph by the afternoon. High temperatures should top out around the mid-upper 50s, right about average for this time of year. Clear skies overnight Saturday will allow for good radiational cooling, and low temperatures could dip into the mid-upper 30s across the region.

Sunday promises to be the best day of the weekend, with high pressure firmly in control over the region. Sunny skies should allow for a mild day with high temperatures approaching 60.

The next storm system moves into the area later Monday into Monday night, with another chance for rain. Temperatures Monday could top 60 again with warm air flowing ahead of an approaching cold front.

Cool gif – Severe Thunderstorms in the Plains, Apr 3, 2014

April 3, 2014Cool Images, Outside of NYC, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Weather Updategif, missouri, oklahoma, plains, satellite, severe weather, storms, thunderstorms, tornadoesLei Zhao

Check out this satellite loop of a line of severe thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma extending northeast into western Missouri. You can see the classic telltale signs of explosive thunderstorm growth here. Notice how at the outset, the line of clouds near the center of the frame are relatively thin, but then balloon out as time goes by. What’s happening here is that the cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds along this line are growing so rapidly that they are hitting the top of the troposphere. Since water vapor has a difficult time penetrating into the stratosphere, it gets forced out laterally instead. Indeed, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a mesoscale discussion, along with severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado watches for much of the area.

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Mar 29, 2014

March 29, 2014NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendflooding, nyc, rain, rainstorm, saturday, storms, weather, weekendLei Zhao

If you’re getting ready to venture out this evening make sure to bring an umbrella and wear your rain gear as a heavy rain event is in store for the New York City area. This will be an extended rainfall event leading into Monday. temperatures today will peak at around 50, near normal. The heaviest rain will be falling from approximately 8 p.m. tonight into the overnight hours. Winds will be at around 25-35 mph. Parts of the area are forecast to receive between 1.5″-3″ of rain in the next 48 hours, which could lead to some minor flooding in poor drainage urban areas and small creeks.

So, in general expect conditions to gradually deteriorate through the day and the intensity of rain to pick up. Rain will continue on Sunday, albeit with diminished intensity. Temperatures will hold steady around 50.

Refer to the diagram below, which represents the North American models guidance for this evening at around 8 p.m. Note the areas of blue and bright blue that correspond to rainfall rates anywhere between .75″ to 1.5″ per hour.

Rain will diminish by Monday afternoon as the low pressure center responsible for the heaviest rains moves off to the northeast.

High pressure will move in Tuesday, with a weak cold front moving through later Tuesday. This frontal boundary is not forecast to produce any precipitation. Ahead of this frontal system, we’ll see temperatures rebound to seasonal levels in the mid-upper 50s and partly cloudy skies. Wednesday will likewise be a seasonable day with mild temps near 60.

Light rain is possible Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of next week, but it’s much to early to be certain. GFS model also shows a possible coastal storm for next Tuesday.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 27, 2014

March 27, 2014Climate, Northwest, NYC, Outside of NYC, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekend, Western USgfs, landslide, mudslide, navgem, nyc, oso, qpf, storms, weatherLei Zhao

We’re entering into a pattern of active weather through the weekend and into early next week. Today will be dry and pleasant, though well below normal with highs only in the mid 40s.

High pressure will move east of NYC before a cold front approaches from our west on Friday. Southwest flow around the high pressure center and ahead of the frontal boundary will usher in milder, moist air from the southeast. Temperatures on Friday will be near normal in the mid 50s. As the front passes through, expect periodic rain showers throughout the afternoon hours.

Saturday – a second frontal system is forecast to spawn a low that will track offshore of the East Coast, bringing a second round of rain to the area. This round will be heavier than Friday’s, with ample moisture available for the storm to draw on. With the clouds and rain, high temperatures will be suppressed to around 50.

Sunday – there is some uncertainty about how quickly the low impacting us Saturday will exit the region. At this time, it does appear that rain will continue through portions of the day. Should the low be slow to exit, colder air could work into the system allowing for accumulating snow Sunday night! High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid 40s.

Monday – should be a fair day, dry, with high temperatures near normal in the mid 50s. So, even if it snows on Sunday, the snow will melt rapidly. Next shot at precipitation comes with another frontal system Tuesday.

Check out the cumulative quantitative precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center for Thursday through Sunday morning. Note that our area is forecast to receive as much as 2.5″ of precipitation through Sunday. Also, there are pockets of as much as 4-6″ of precipitation forecast for the West Coast. For California, that’s some good news as it will help with the drought conditions, but as we saw with Oso, Washington mudslide this much precipitation in such a short span of time can lead to landslides. This is especially the case for Oregon and Washington which are no longer as drought-stricken and soil saturated from previous storms.

Below is a NAVGEM forecast model run depicting two storms simultaneously impacting the West Coast and the Northeast on Sunday.

NYC Weather Update – March Snowstorm? Mar 21, 2014

March 21, 2014Climate, Noreaster, NYC, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcold, nyc, snow, snowstorm, spring, storms, weather, weekendLei Zhao

This is not the news any of us want to hear, but confidence is increasing for a potential late-March snowstorm to impact the NYC area next Tuesday-Wednesday. First, the weekend forecast:

Saturday

A warm front will push through early Saturday followed by a cold front later in the day, with a slim chance for precipitation. After the passage of the warm front, gusty winds will increase from the south and southwest, ushering in some much anticipated spring-like warm air. High temperatures may top 60, but with mostly cloudy skies and the influence of the wind it will feel cooler.

Sunday

Clouds will diminish Sunday, but in the wake of the cold front, temperatures will struggle to hit the low-mid 40s. Polar high pressure continues to build overnight, with low temperatures much below average only in the mid-20s!

Monday

Fair conditions with the polar high in control, temperatures will only be in the mid-30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tuesday and into Wednesday

An area of low pressure forecast to form offshore of the Carolinas will track into our area. Forecast models are pointing to this system rapidly strengthening with a sharp decrease in central pressure as it progresses into the waters off of Long Island. Recent model show a track closer to the 40N/70W benchmark, which increases the potential for a significant snowstorm. However, 5 days out, there’s still a good deal of uncertainty as to final track, positioning of precipitation bands, and available moisture. A track slightly further north will mean increased odds for a significant snow event, while a track too far north or south will diminish these chances.

GFS model showing a strong low pressure center consolidating southeast of Long Island around 1AM Wednesday morning.

GEFS model (spaghetti strings show upper air circulation 552mb and 564mb). The two main bunches of the strings represent the polar and subtropical jet streams respectively. Notice the loops connecting the two streams over the our region. This is converging of energy from both streams will feed the rapidly deepening low pressure center.

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region