Tag Archives: thunderstorms

NYC Independence Day Weekend Weather – Jun 30, 2017

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A hot and active weather pattern sets in for this holiday weekend. Despite multiple rounds of possible showers and thunderstorms, this will be far from a washout. Most of the precipitation looks to be late in the day or overnight, leaving most of the day clear for all manner of outdoor activities. The weather clears up in time for the holiday itself.

Rest of today – warm, humid, high temperatures in the upper-80s with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into the overnight hours, more likely west of the city. It remains to be seen if organized showers remain intact as they approach much more stable air at the coast.

Saturday – another warm and humid day with a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

Sunday – best chances for rain are overnight into Sunday. Another hot day in store as a slow moving cold front to the west keeps the door open for hot and humid tropical air to flow into the area from the southwest.

Monday – with the cold front behind us, fair weather with high temperatures in the mid-80s and lots of sun.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 26, 2017

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The first official full week of summer starts out more spring-like, but heats up towards the end of the week. Along with the heat, chances for rain and thunderstorms also increase, leading to an active weather pattern for there holiday weekend.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a small chance for a pop-up shower inland, north and west of the city as a weaker cold front moves through. High temperature around 80°F.

Tuesday – a second cold front approaches, weakening as it does so. This front will bring another slight chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. High around 80°F again.

Wednesday – high pressure builds behind the cold front. Temperatures remain below average in the upper-70s to 80°F with sunny skies.

Thursday – high pressure to the south starts sliding southeast and brings warmer tropical air flowing clockwise around it. This will have the effect of raising temperatures into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 19, 2017

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The weather on Sunday turned out to be a real gift for fathers in the region, yielding a lot more clear skies than anticipated going into the weekend. We could have a rough start this week with possible severe weather, and another chance of rain mid-week. A tropical system forming over the Gulf of Mexico bears watching this coming weekend.

Rest of today – humid and warm with high temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Mostly sunny to start. All the ingredients for possibly severe thunderstorms will be in place this afternoon and evening. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of the area west of Long Island. The Storm Prediction Center has placed some of the region west of the Hudson River under an enhanced risk of experiencing severe weather with the city itself in a slight risk area.

A vigorous cold front will move east towards NYC today. As we can feel, the airmass ahead of the front is saturated and warm. The more sun we get before the front approaches, the greater the destabilization in the atmosphere. The cold front will line up with the flow of the jet stream, which will favor line segments and training of storm cells repeatedly hitting the same areas (flash flood warning is in place because of this).

Timing of the leading edge of the storms appears to be around 5pm. Any storms or substantial cloud cover ahead of this would decrease the severe potential. Primary threat along this leading line of storms would be damaging wind gusts with a small chance for hail and a couple isolated tornadoes.

Behind this leading line of storms, we could see a slight break around 8PM, but then more rounds of moderate to heavy rains that could lead to flash flooding.

Tuesday – severe weather and rain should dissipate fairly quickly after midnight. Decreasing clouds in the wake of the cold front though high temperatures remain similar to today due to the influence of southwest winds.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. A chance for rain in the afternoon, but much milder and less widespread than today.

Thursday – mostly sunny again, with highs in the low-80s again.

 

Potential Tropical Storm in the Gulf

Two possible tropical systems are churning, one east of the Windward Islands and the other crossing over the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico. The latter system may have a tangible impact in terms of bringing tropical moisture to the area this coming weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Jun 16, 2017

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What a difference a week makes. Since Wednesday, we’ve seen temperatures slide from record heat in some places. An unsettled weather pattern takes hold through the weekend and into next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

Rest of today – Cloudy, temperatures on the cool side with high temperatures only in the low-70s. Multiple chances for mainly showery precipitation with a warm front slowly creeping towards us. Two primary batches of rain look to affect the area around noon then again in the late evening around 10pm.

Saturday – the warm front mentioned above should push through, but could be slow to do so which would result in a lower high temperature like today as opposed to the upper-70s. Both before and after the warm front passage there’s a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Generally mostly cloudy.

Sunday – we’ll be in the warm sector between the exiting warm front and an approaching cold front. High temperatures will respond by climbing into the mid-80s. Could start the day off with scattered showers. The majority of the day looks rain-free though cloudy. Not a total washout for Father’s Day, but not ideal either.

Monday – the cold front pushes through late in the day. High temperatures again in the low-mid 80s. There’s some possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms with associated with this cold front. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere would easily yield some heavy downpours as well.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 5, 2017

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The beginning of June sure won’t feel like summer with an extended period of unsettled weather through midweek due to the influence of a very slow moving set of low pressure centers. However, forecast models are trending towards a warm up towards the end of the week and going into the weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures approaching 70ºF. Periods of rain possible later in the day along with a couple thunderstorms.

Tuesday – periods of showers likely throughout the day with temperatures much cooler in the mid-50s due to the influence of an onshore, northeasterly wind.

Wednesday – mostly cloudy again, with rain chances gradually diminishing. Cool, with temperatures in the low-60s.

Thursday – finally get a shift in winds away form the northeast. Partly sunny, and warmer with high temperatures near 70ºF.

 

Warmup Ahead

Climate Prediction Center forecasts for 6-10 days out show a pronounced warm up occurring over the Eastern US as high pressure starts to setup over the western Atlantic. This weekend should feature temperatures closer to normal in the upper-70s and low-80s.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 2, 2017

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This weekend will feature mostly sunny skies, seasonable, and pleasant conditions until late in the day Sunday when our next chance for rain moves in. The low pressure causing this next round of rain looks to linger well into mid-week next week, which will bring on several days of cool, cloudy, and rainy weather to contrast with the beginning of the weekend.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with some slight chance for scattered thunderstorms, most likely appearing west of NYC. High temperatures ranging in the mid-upper 70s.

Saturday – mild, pleasant, mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. High pressure will be in control for a day.

Sunday – high pressure starts breaking down as the next storm system approaches. This storm system will be a complex and slow moving one. While the bulk of the moisture associated with this storm looks to stay offshore, we will still get multiple rounds of rain from it, beginning late Sunday. Temperatures will be a touch cooler in the low-70s with increasing clouds Sunday.

Monday – cloudy with temperatures in the low-70s, and periods of rain likely throughout the day. Kicks off a cooler and wetter than normal trend leading at least into mid-week.

NYC Weather Update – May 30, 2017

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Active weather pattern continues this week to open up the month of June, though we aren’t looking at the kind of soaking rains we got last week. Temperatures on a general gradual upwards trend through the week with high temperatures ranging into the mid-upper 70s by the end of the week.

Rest of today – cloudy, with a very slight chance for showers later in the day. Cool with an onshore breeze, high temperatures in the low-60s.

Wednesday – warmer, but still cloudy with chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day as a frontal boundary passes from the west. High temperatures in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high pressure takes control for one solid day on Thursday as temperatures remain in the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies anticipated.

Friday – another nice day to start with mostly sunny skies. Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases late Friday into early Saturday accompanying an approaching cold front. Highs in the upper-70s.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 26, 2017

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After a soaking rain yesterday, we enter a holiday weekend with a mixed bag of weather. The first half of the weekend should turn out to be the better half in terms of conditions for outdoor activities. Temperatures during the period will be at or just below normal in the low-mid 70s.

Rest of today – heavy rains fell overnight into early this morning. Mostly sunny skies should give way later in the afternoon to a second round of more scattered showers. High temperatures in the mid-70s and maybe a touch higher depending how much sun we get.

Saturday – best day of the weekend as we get a respite from a near continuous chain of disturbances. Partly sunny with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Sunday – small chance for scattered showers, primarily early in the morning, mostly cloudy and cooler with temperatures in the upper-60s.

Monday (Memorial Day) – increased chance for showers and maybe even a couple thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy otherwise wirh high temperatures around 70F.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 19, 2017

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We’re well on pace to hit the low-90s again today, which would officially mark the first heat wave of 2017. The Bermuda high that led to these sultry conditions allowed us to heat up even more than official National Weather Service forecasts called for. Temperatures ranged 20ºF above normal in many places away from south facing shorelines. The weekend sees a drastic change in airmasses and a return to more seasonable conditions before the next chance for rain Monday.

Rest of today – hot, humid, high temperatures reaching the low-90s for most areas again except the south-facing shorelines of Long Island. Air quality has improved today so no alert is active. A cold front passes through the area later this evening, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday – the passage of the cold front late Friday sets the stage for a dramatic shift in airmasses. Behind the cold front, a high pressure center over Canada will bring much cooler air riding winds from the north and northeast. Temperatures Saturday are expected to cool off into the upper-60s, with much drier conditions and mostly sunny skies.

Sunday – another cool day with temperatures in the mid-60s and clouds building ahead of a warm front that will move through Monday.

Monday – a warm front, followed quickly by a cold front pushes through Monday. The result will be mostly cloudy skies and an extended period of showers through the day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the low-70s.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 27, 2017

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The beginning of this week will somewhat echo the end of last week, with temperatures starting off on the cooler side, then ramping up before the passage of a cold front that could also bring some thunderstorms. After this cold front passes, temperatures take a dive closer to normal levels.

Rest of today – increasing clouds will cap temperatures in the low-50s.

Tuesday – warmer but with increasing chances for rain during the day. High temperatures in the upper-50s.

Wednesday – during the early morning hours, a warm front associated with a low pressure center moving across southern Ontario will push through. This will set the stage for possibly record-breaking warmth during the day. Southwest flow will allow temperatures to steadily climb into the upper-60s and possibly over 70°F. Later in the day, a trailing cold front will make its approach. This will serve as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the day and into the early overnight hours. Some of the storms could approach marginally severe criteria.

Thursday – following the cold front passing through, winds shift to the northwest. This will result in much cooler temperatures dropping through the day into the upper-40s.

 

Cooler Weather Ahead

Looking ahead to the mid-month period, it does appear we may see some cooler than normal temperatures prior to the formal onset of spring.