Tag Archives: thunderstorms

NYC Christmas Weather – Dec 22, 2015

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Winter officially began yesterday night at 11:49PM, though you wouldn’t be able to tell given the incredibly warm weather we’re experiencing and will continue to experience right through Christmas Day. Forget snow – we’re talking thunderstorms possibly happening on Christmas Eve. Hope Santa’s sleigh is electrically insulated!

Rest of today – periods of rain, heavy at times, and cloudy with high temperatures in the low-60s. Timing of a second round of heavier rain seems to be in the 1-3PM window, after which things will calm down.

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Wednesday – another impulse of energy will be arriving Wednesday and we’ll get another shot of rain along with it. The timing of the heaviest rain tomorrow appears to be later in the afternoon, around 4PM and the evening rush. High temperatures very similar to today in the low-60s.

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Thursday (Christmas Eve) – a substantial surge of warm, humid air from the Gulf ahead of a cold front (and around the western edge of a high pressure center located in the Western Atlantic) will almost certainly lead to record high temperatures being crushed across the region. We are talking the possibility of seeing high temperatures topping 70ºF, which for perspective is close to 30ºF above average for this time of year. Because of the warmth and humidity, the atmosphere will be unstable enough to support isolated thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through, though coverage will be isolated at best.

Friday (Christmas) – after the cold front moves through Thursday, we’ll cool off a bit and dry out, but we’re still talking about temperatures easily in the low-60s which could lead to more records being broken. For those who love the milder temperatures, this is certainly a big gift.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 14, 2015

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Temperatures remain very warm to start the week, following a weekend of recording-breaking warm weather this past weekend. However, a true cooldown into temperatures within normal ranges for this time of year (high temperatures in the mid-40s) won’t occur until late this week. When that cool down comes around, we could even be looking at a few snow flurries!

Rest of today – widespread fog has taken hold across the region. Fog is expected to lift by around noon, however, generally cloudy conditions are likely to persist through the afternoon. Warm again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s – higher if clouds break in any areas inland. Later this evening, we get our best shot at a round of showers and even a couple embedded thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through. Timing for this precipitation looks to be around 8PM this evening.

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Tuesday – behind the cold front, skies will clear, giving us a much brighter, but also windier day Tuesday. Still, temperatures remain warm, with highs again approaching the low-mid 60s.

Wednesday – cooler temperatures finally kick in with high temperatures dropping into the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – a secondary surface low will form over the Southeast, associated with a stronger low pressure that will be over the Hudson Bay area. This low brings us our next chance at precipitation, and will yield a mostly cloudy day, with increasing chances for rain in the afternoon as the day progresses.

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NYC Weather Update – Nov 16, 2015

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This week will feature a mixed bag of warm and cool temperatures, along with a bout of moderate-heavy rain and even a couple thunderstorms associated with a cold front passing through the region on Thursday into Friday. Timing of this frontal passage isn’t 100% certain at this point. However, it is clear that behind this front, temperatures will take a dive into more seasonable ranges in the upper-40s to around 50ºF by this weekend.

Rest of today – clear skies with a high temperature well into the mid-60s. This is due in part to high pressure to our south that’s allowing for warm air to flow in from the west.

Tuesday – quite a different story in terms of temperatures. A backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, leading to a shift in winds to the northeast by tomorrow. This wind pattern favors cooler temperatures as the winds circulating clockwise around a high pressure center over the Canadian Maritimes bring in a cooler airmass. High temperatures will struggle to hit 50ºF in this atmosphere.

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Wednesday – temperatures quickly rebound as winds switch back to the south-southeast ahead of a cold front which will be passing through the area sometime late Thursday. Cloud should increase during the day, but enough sun should still get through to get temperatures back to near 60.

Thursday – a mostly cloudy day with periods of rain throughout looks to be the headline for Thursday. Temperatures should warm up nicely into the mid-60s with warm, moist air entering the area from the south ahead of the actual cold front. Periods of heavy rain at times could be accompanied by an occasional thunderstorm especially as the cold front nears.gfs_namer_075_1000_850_thick 2

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 7, 2015

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The three day weekend ahead will feature some idyllic autumn weather with plenty of sun for outdoor activities if you’re heading out of town on a getaway. The only blemish in this otherwise stretch of superb weather will be a round of showers and thunderstorms entering the city Friday afternoon and passing through Friday night.

Rest of today – we’re starting off with mostly cloudy skies, but skies should clear rapidly within the next couple hours. After that, we get a mostly sunny afternoon with high temperatures near 70. Clouds re-enter the picture later this evening in advance of an approaching disturbance that will bring us rain on Friday.

Friday – overnight tonight, a warm front will push through the area, such that by Friday morning, winds will switch to the southwest. This will allow for warm air to surge up ahead of a cold front that will be passing through Friday night. This setup is favorable for the possible development of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Chances for rain increase steadily Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the upper-70s to near 80.

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Saturday – the cold front moves quickly through the area Friday and by Saturday, skies should clear up, while temperatures cool off into the mid-60s.

Sunday – another picture perfect autumn day with high temperatures in the mid-60s and ample sunshine.

Monday (Columbus Day) – stretch of nice weather continues into Columbus Day, with temperatures slightly warmer in the upper-60s to around 70.

Drought Update

The drenching rains two weeks ago helped alleviate drought conditions over large portions of the Northeast. However, moderate drought conditions stubbornly persist in the NYC metro area, especially in Long Island.

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NYC Weather Update – Sept 8, 2015

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Another steamy beginning to week is following on the heels of Labor Day. Today and Wednesday are both days when the temperature could top 90ºF. By Thursday, a strong cold front moves through, bringing the potential for much needed rain and cooling things off considerably for the end of the week.

Rest of today – sunny, hot and humid, high temperatures in the low-mid 90s in the city. Humidity remains just low enough to obviate the need for any excessive heat watches/warnings.

Wednesday – increasing clouds from west to east on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures remain warm ahead of the front, generally in the upper-80s with maybe a couple spots topping 90. There could be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, perhaps along a sea breeze front in Brooklyn/Queens.

Thursday – widespread showers and thunderstorms will be the order of the day, with cooler temperatures in the low-80s and cloudy conditions. Periods of showers and thunderstorms could persist for extended periods of time, bringing the potential for flash flooding in some locations. Rain ends from west to east gradually during the overnight hours.

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NYC Weather Update – Aug 31, 2015

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A heat wave is on for the end of August, and will persist into the beginning of September. A hot, humid tropical airmass will be firmly in control through out the early and mid-week period before we get some heat relief late in the week. The hot temperatures and a lack of widespread precipitation may allow drought to redevelop in some parts of the region, and worsen over Long Island.

Rest of today – possibly the hottest day of the week, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s inland despite some cloud cover and uncomfortable humidity levels.

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Tuesday – a weak backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, although no precipitation is anticipated due to insufficient instability. Tomorrow should see high temperatures in the lower 90s again under sunnier skies.

Wednesday – the heat wave continues with temperatures yet again expected to top out in the low-mid 90s with sunny skies. There could be a few isolated pop-up showers/thunderstorms late in the day with very limited coverage.

Thursday – expected to be the last day of the heat wave, sunny with high temperatures at or above 90.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 20, 2015

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Unsettled weather will be a trend for the end of this week and into the weekend as a cold front pushes through the region. Friday is shaping up to be the worst day with heavy rain with a risk for flash flooding. Conditions improve somewhat Saturday and Sunday, although a chance for showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either day.

Rest of today – slight chance of showers or thunderstorms persists through this afternoon, though the best chances remain west of the Hudson, as was the case yesterday. We’ve hit a humid highin the mid-80s with a mix of sun and clouds above.

Friday – a cold front will be pushing through during the course of the day Friday. As the frontal boundary approaches overnight and into the early morning hours Friday, a slow moving band of heavy rain is expected to form and track from north to south across the area. It appears likely that the heaviest rain will fall in a narrow band during the early morning hours, and that things may already be drying out by the AM rush. High temperatures will be cooler than average with the cloud cover and rain, near 80.

Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday

A chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Friday. By the end of the day, some areas could pick up between 1-2″ of rain, raising the risk of some flash flooding.

Saturday – although high pressure will be building once the cold front passes on Friday, a chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on the backside of this front. Temperatures will again be below normal with mostly cloudy skies and a high in the low-80s.

 

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Sunday – showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for Sunday, which will end up being nearly identical to Saturday in sensible weather with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2015

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A heatwave over the weekend breaks Tuesday, as we enter an extended period of unsettled weather for the mid-week period. Temperatures cool off somewhat into the mid-80s, slightly above average for this time of year. Each day, except Tuesday perhaps will carry some small but non-zero chance of rain.

Rest of today – the possibility exists for some isolated thunderstorms to form over portions of the region this afternoon. The setup would be similar to yesterday when the temperature differential resulting from a sea breeze served as the trigger for some slow-moving storms. Plenty of instability from the heat and humidity and very little convective inhibition will mean that storms could form rapidly. However, the exact location of where these storms form is difficult to pinpoint. Areas that experience storms could expect heavy rain, otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures that could touch record levels in the mid-90s.

High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 2PM EDT today
High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 2PM EDT today

Tuesday – a bit cooler with temperatures in the upper-80s and sunny skies to start, clouds increasing towards the evening.

Wednesday – high temperatures will cool off further into the mid-80s under cloud cover, and there will be a chance for rain throughout the day. This precipitation is associated with a slow-moving cold front approaching from the west.

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Thursday – a similar day to Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more sun, but highs again in the mid-80s and a chance of rain through the day

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 13

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The pleasant weather we’ve had the past two days gives way to a hotter, more humid feel appropriate for August. High pressure that has been giving us this wonderful weather will be steadily moving east. Temperatures will warm and the air will moisten as winds shift to the south and southwest. We’ll likely see temperatures at or above 90ºF for the weekend.

Rest of today – clear skies with comfortable high temperatures in the low 80s.

Friday – warmer, with high temperatures rising into the mid-80s. Humidity will begin to increase.

Saturday – probably will be the warmest day of the weekend with highs at or slightly above 90ºF. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible especially inland, though unlikely at the coast.

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Sunday – just a tad less hot as a weak cold front pushes through, but still sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s.

NYC Weather Update

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The weather story for the first part of this week will be a prolonged heavy rain event occurring Tuesday, delivering parts of the region some much needed precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday, first because of the rain and clouds and then due to the influence of high pressure to our west.

Rest of today – NYC remains under mostly sunny skies, however, cloud cover is building to our west, so we could end up with more clouds later this afternoon. It will be a noticeably more humid day, although temperatures will still only top out in the low-80s.

Tuesday – rain should begin falling in the early overnight hours, and looks to persist through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. The heaviest rain seems likely to fall during the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, and while the atmospheric conditions will not be very favorable (timing of the strongest lift will occur early in the day before any substantial daytime heating, which will be diminished due to cloud cover anyway), a few strong storms could still pop up in the morning. Some areas could see some isolated flash flooding if storm cells end up training over the same spots. Under the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures should be limited again to the low-80s.

North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday
North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday

Wednesday – rain will have cleared out after the passage of the cold front responsible for Tuesday’s storms. Behind this cold front, high pressure will set up over the Ohio Valley, bringing in cool, dry air. Temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low-mid 80s with low humidity.

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Thursday – the pattern of cool, dry weather continues with another day of sunny skies and high temperatures slightly below normal in the low-80s.

Drought Relief

A slight/moderate drought continues to cling to areas of Long Island and costal Connecticut, as you can see from the map below. It does appear that this upcoming Tuesday storm will bring some much needed rain to these particular areas. As you’ll also note from the map of forecast precipitation totals for Tuesday, some of the highest totals are expected precisely in the areas that need them the most.

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Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday
Weather Prediction Center’s Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday