Tag Archives: thunderstorms

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 23, 2015

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The end of this week and weekend will be characterized by comfortable conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front from Canada will be approaching from the west by Sunday, however, this frontal boundary looks to weaken as it nears the area. There should be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms, but it is likely most areas stay dry through the weekend.

Rest of today – high pressure over the Ohio Valley will yield sunny skies, with a high in the mid-80s. Dry air moving from the west will make for a pleasant feel today.

Friday – high pressure remains in control tomorrow, providing for conditions almost identical to today, with highs again in the mid-80s under sunny skies with low humidity.

Saturday – although the high pressure center will weaken somewhat as it moves east on Saturday, it will still dominate our sensible weather, leading to yet another day of basically the same weather conditions with highs in the mid-80s and plenty of sun.

Sunday – with the high continuing to weaken and move to the southeast, we get a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary originating in Canada moving into the region. Rain chances aren’t all that high, though, so it’s likely most areas stay dry. Highs again in the mid-80s with increasing cloud cover.

Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT
Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT

Drought Update

Drought conditions over New York state have drastically abated since the beginning of the month, especially in upstate regions. However, moderate drought persists over parts of Long Island.

Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.
Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 13, 2015

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This week will feature two contrasting airmasses, with the beginning of the week influenced by a warm, humid airmass, before a cold front Wednesday brings some relief from the heat and humidity and brings in cooler, drier air. A warm front, then this cold front, along with the warm temperatures and humidity will lead to the chance for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Rest of today – warm, humid, with hazy skies and a high in the mid-upper 80s.

Tuesday – a warm front approaches the area from the southwest then stalls to our south. Winds shift to the southeast, providing somewhat of a cooling effect with a sea breeze. However, inland areas should still see temperatures well into the mid-80s. A wave of low pressure will be sliding east along the stalled frontal boundary during the day Tuesday, however, the best chances for rain and thunderstorms associated with this wave look to be confined to areas well west of NYC. A spotty shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the city.

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Wednesday – as the stationary front from Tuesday moves away, a cold front will be pushing through the region on Wednesday. This will allow for the chance of rain and thunderstorms to persist. Chances for precipitation Wednesday are overall lower than Tuesday, and it will be a set up where most of the area stays dry, with only a few locations picking up appreciable rainfall from a passing storm. Highs will continue to be warm in the mid-upper 80s ahead of the cold front passing through.

Thursday – following the passage of the cold front, high pressure will build over the region. Clockwise flow around this high pressure will usher in refreshing, drier air with a north wind. Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler, in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 6, 2015

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We get a dose of summer weather this week, after a rather cool start to July this past weekend. Along with the warmer temperatures, there will also be some chance for unsettled weather up until Friday as a cold front transits late Wednesday into Thursday.

Tuesday – clouds and sun with high temperatures topping out in the mid-80s and possibly upper-80s in a few spots. There is a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon especially in western portions of the region.

Wednesday – clouds mixed with some sun again with a warm, tropical airmass in place ahead of a cold front allowing for high temperatures to rise into the upper-80s to low-90s in a few spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, however, forecast models are still presenting disparate outcomes as to the exact timing and coverage of precipitation Wednesday. With warm temperatures and ample moisture, storms that do form have the potential to produce periods of heavy rain.

 

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Thursday – chances for rain and thunderstorms continue into the overnight hours Thursday, but it does appear that we get a break during the morning. High temperatures will be quite warm again in the upper-80s despite a cold front having moved through. Another weak disturbance is forecast to approach the area in the afternoon, giving us another chance at some showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 30, 2015

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This short holiday week will feature decent weather for the most part, with the exception of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of now, it does appear that there will be a chance of showers/thunderstorms on July 4th itself, however, uncertainty and considerable disparities between different forecast models has been noted by forecasters. We should have a clearer picture of the situation later this week.

Rest of today – clouds gradually increase in coverage during the day today with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight, chances for rain will steadily pick up as a warm front approaches the area from the south and west.

Wednesday – a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low-mid 80s. There is a good chance for showers early on in the day. However, the chance of rain starts to diminish in the afternoon, and it is unclear if there will be enough instability remaining in the atmosphere following the passage of the warm front above to support more rain or storms.gfs_namer_033_1000_850_thick

Thursday – a cold front following on the heels of the warm front mentioned above will mean that there is still a chance for showers and thunderstorms as that frontal boundary approaches. Temperatures should be similar to Wednesday, in the low-mid 80s.

Looking ahead at the holiday weekend, it looks like both Friday and Sunday should be mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s. There is a small chance for rain and thunderstorms for Independence Day, but there is enough forecast uncertainty in the forecast models to hope for a dry day Saturday as well.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 11, 2015

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We will likely be experiencing one of the hottest days of the year so far, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper-80s and into the low-90s in a few spots this afternoon. The warm weather continues through Saturday, when an area of high pressure over eastern Canada brings us some relief from the heat. In terms of the weekend, Sunday will definitely be the better day, with cooler temperatures, but dry weather.

Rest of today – temperatures are expected to top out right around 90 in the city. Increasingly humid air will lead to an uncomfortable feeling day. There is some potential for thunderstorms, some possibly marginally severe, occurring in the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the north and west. The orientation of the frontal boundary and primary storm vector will align in such a way that training of storms could occur, leading to the same locations getting hit by multiple storm cells.

In addition, an air quality alert is active today, with PM2.5 particle being the primary driver in pushing the Air Quality Index into the low 100s (unhealthy for sensitive groups).

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
Air quality forecast for today
Air quality forecast for today

Friday – the cold front that pushes through today with some possible thunderstorms will stall just south of the area, then push back north through the area as a warm front Friday. This means we will not get any respite from the heat, with highs again expected to be in the upper-80s to near 90, and another chance at more thunderstorms. There will be more sun Friday than today, but atmospheric dynamics are not expected to be supportive of severe weather.

Saturday – the warm front that passes through Friday comes back yet again as a cold front as it gets dragged along by the low pressure center moving to the northeast. This means yet another chance for thunderstorms, and ahead of that, warm temperatures remaining in the upper-80s.

Sunday – the weather finally settles down and stabilizes as a high pressure center builds to the north in behind the cold front passing on Saturday. This should lead to cooler temperatures and sunny skies for Sunday, when temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Monday – another frontal boundary will be making its approach from the west on Monday, however, the timing of its approach is such that chances for rain will be low on Monday. Temperatures should again be comfortable around 80.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 8, 2015

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The weekend offered us some respite from what had been a cool, wet week. This week starts off with the potential for more drenching rain and thunderstorms before conditions calm. By the second half of the week, we will experience a noticeable increase in temperatures, with highs on Thursday possibly touching 90 in a few spots.

Rest of today – cloud cover should clear out for the next few hours until the next chance at rain comes later this evening. Depending on how much sun we get, high temperatures could reach the mid-upper 70s. Later this evening and overnight, we should see some showers in advance of an approaching cold front. While thunderstorms are expected west of the Hudson, the stabilizing influence of onshore sea breeze bringing in a marine air layer will serve to limit thunderstorms from persisting across NYC and points east along the coast. In any case, the heaviest rain appears to hold off until after 8PM.

 

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 1AM EDT Tuesday.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 1AM EDT Tuesday.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy day with highs near 80. The aforementioned cold front draws nearer, giving us more chances at showers and thunderstorms, particularly later in the day. As with today, stronger storms will likely be limited to inland areas to the north and west that will not be affected by a sea breeze.

Wednesday – weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday behind the cold front. Generally sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.

Thursday – humid and warm air flowing in from the southwest ahead of another frontal system will raise temperatures on Thursday to near 90ºF. This will feel like a late-July summer day with the high humidity.

NYC Weather Update – May 31, 2015

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We start the week off with some much needed rain and a noticeable cool down in temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage later today and transition into more widespread showers that are expected to persist into the overnight hours. The start of the week will be rainy, cloudy, and cool under the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass. By midweek, we get back into more fair conditions with the sun returning and temperatures back in the mid-70s.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas of Northeastern New Jersey in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms later. Based on latest radar trends and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s output, it would appear that thunderstorms are likely to develop over portions of New Jersey highlighted in the slight risk area, then track eastwards into the NYC metro area later this afternoon into the early evening hours. With breaks in the clouds for sun, we’ll hit temperatures in the low-80s, which when coupled with ample moisture, should support thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.

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High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 8PM EST
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 8PM EST

Monday – all the activity occurring today and going into the overnight hours is associated with a cold front that is moving south into our area. As this cold front pushes through, east-northeast winds will set up, allowing a cooler, Canadian maritime airmass in. This will translate into cooler than average temperatures only in the mid-60s with showers likely throughout the day.

Tuesday – wet, cool weather continues Tuesday with highs again only in the mid-60s and the ongoing chance for rain showers throughout the day. This extended period of rain from later today into Tuesday should bring some relief to the moderate drought conditions over parts of the Northeast, with the potential for as much as 4″ of rain over the period in certain parts of the region.

Possible total rainfall over the next 48 hours
Possible total rainfall over the next 48 hours

Wednesday – high pressure finally builds back in Wednesday, pushing away the rainy weather, and yielding pleasant temperatures in the low-mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.

Thursday – slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the upper-70s in NYC.

NYC Weekend Weather & 2015 Hurricane Season Forecast – May 28, 2015

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Yesterday, portions of our area got some much needed rain from a round of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough. Today, we get another shot at rain and thunderstorms as the primary cold front actually pushes through. Behind that front, things cool off and dry out for Friday, before the humidity returns on Saturday. Things should stay dry Saturday, but we will see a more substantial chance at widespread rainfall Sunday with the passage of another cold front. Also of note, the National Hurricane Center released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below normal season.

Rest of today – clouds give way to sun with warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon. The atmospheric setup today is a bit more favorable to showers and thunderstorms being able to persist into NYC and western Long Island, unlike yesterday when these showers essentially died out as they hit the stable marine air layer near the coast. The exact location of where storms form and move into will still be tricky to pinpoint even at this time.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.

Friday – once the frontal boundary passes through later today, it will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for Friday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-upper 70s (still 5-10ºF above normal) under sunny skies.

Saturday – temperatures will be slightly warmer in the low-80s on Saturday with an increase in humidity as well. There could be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms later in the day as well.

Sunday – another cold front passes through the region Sunday, bringing with it the chance for more substantial and widespread showers. Temperatures will also cool off to around normal, in the low-mid 70s.

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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Hurricane Center released its initial outlook for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season that officially starts on June 1st. As you’ll see from the graphic below, forecasters are calling for a below normal season with 6-11 named storms (tropical storms with sustained winds greater than 39mph). Of these named storms, forecasters think 3-6 have a chance to intensify into hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 74mph), and of those hurricanes 0-2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds greater than 111mph). Outlook_2015_FINAL

 

The primary reason for the 70% probability of a below normal season is the disruptive effect of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific, which is known to alter the pressure and air currents over the tropical Atlantic, dampening the formation of hurricanes. On the other hand, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with El Niño are expected to induce an above average Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon season. Read the full statement from the NHC here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html

NYC Weather Update – May 26, 2015

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It certainly does feel as though Memorial Day 2015 has been the unofficial start of summer, given the warm and humid temperatures we’ve had from Sunday onwards. The warm, late-June like temperature trend continues through mid-week, with some chance for thunderstorms. Rain in any form would be most welcome, given that the region has been placed in a region of moderate drought as of this week.

Rest of today – the Bermuda high, more typical of mid-summer, brings us very warm and humid high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, more than 15ºF above average for this time of year. If you like the heat, go out and enjoy it because we might see showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Wednesday – a weak cold front approaches from the west, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The critical question for NYC will be how long organized storms can stay together as they enter into influence of cooler, maritime air nearer to the coast. Temperatures will remain warm in the low-mid 80s with clouds and some breaks of sun. As is generally the case in these setups, the more sun we can get in the afternoon ahead of the frontal bou

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North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for 8PM EST Wednesday

Thursday – we get another shot at thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs likely topping out around 80 under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Moderate Drought for the Region Forecast to Persist

We’ve had an remarkable run of sunny, rain-free days, and above average temperatures for much of May (and indeed even going back a couple of months), and while that’s translated to pleasant weather for outdoor activities, it also has meant that we’ve entered into a stretch of moderate drought. We had a stretch of no rain for 23 consecutive days, earlier this month, which definitely didn’t help things. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, Central Park recorded 7.12″ of rain from March 1st through May 19th, which is only about 63% of average for this time of year.

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While we are only in the lowest tier of drought and were just added to this category this week, these drought conditions bear watching. We hope to get some rain out of this week, and it looks like more storms are on the way this weekend, however, the drought forecast for our region looks to have the drought persist through this summer.

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NYC Weather Update – May 18, 2015

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This week starts off with a backdoor front over us, bringing us much cooler temperatures than yesterday, as well as patchy dense fog. Tomorrow, the Canadian maritime airmass responsible for these conditions will be replaced by a warm, moist airmass originating from the Gulf. By mid-week, a passing cold front will usher in seasonable, and dry conditions to the region.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, cool, with an easterly wind suppressing temperatures, which will top off in the mid-60s.

90fwbg

 

Tuesday – the backdoor front above will move back north overnight as a warm front. This will allow a transition to a southwesterly flow, which will bring warm, Gulf air into the area. High temperatures should be in the mid-70s amidst cloudy skies, punctuated by periods of rain as a cold front approaches from the west. There is some chance at a couple thunderstorms as well.

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Wednesday – when the cold front moves through late Tuesday, it will set up cooler, but pleasant, dry, and sunny conditions on Wednesday. High temperatures around 70.

Thursday – the good weather continues with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.