Severe thunderstorms are approaching the area from our west. Several distinct bowing segments of severe thunderstorms have been making their way steadily towards our area from Central Pennsylvania since earlier this afternoon.
These storms have a history of producing damaging wind gusts and even a few tornadoes. Sundown over some of the areas under the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch areas in our region may weaken these storms, however, overall atmospheric conditions are quite favorable to the forward propagation of this line.
We had a nice couple days of seasonable, dry, and sunny weather this past weekend in the wake of Hurricane Arthur’s passage, but that came to an end yesterday and today. The high pressure that gave us the nice conditions moved to the southeast and out over the open waters of the Atlantic, merging with the semi-stationary Bermuda high. As you may know, this set up favors hot, humid temperatures all along the east coast, and we are no exception. Expect high temperatures to top out in the low-mid 90s today, with uncomfortably high humidity.
Wednesday – we may get some relief from the heat later today and overnight with a pre-frontal trough and scattered diurnal thunderstorms forming in the hot, unstable air. However, tomorrow will be more or less a repeat of today, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and muggy conditions.
Thursday – The cold front above won’t actually reach us until late in the day Wednesday, but when it does hit us Thursday, it will bring some chance for scattered thunderstorms and a slight drop in temperatures back down into the mid 80s.
Friday – amazingly, our streak of great weekend weather (with the exception of Arthur) is set to continue. Once the cold front clears us Thursday, we’ll see high pressure build in from the west Friday, which means some cooler winds and lower humidity airmass from Canada moving in. Temperatures should be milder, in the low-mid 80s Friday through the weekend.
Our next shot at precipitation will be late Sunday into the beginning of next week.
Lots going on in the realm of weather over the coming weekend. First, to start off with today, the Storm Prediction Center has again placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. We could see a repeat of the type of storms from last night as a cold front makes its approach from the west. Even though temperatures are lower today and sunlight limited, there’s still more than enough instability in the atmosphere to fuel a few strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Because we’re looking at another round of possibly torrential rain from today’s storms, many areas are under a flash flood watch. Part of this moisture is due to the influence of Hurricane Arthur to our south.
Hurricane Arthur
As of this morning, Arthur strengthened into the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s first hurricane and is currently sitting offshore of South Carolina with sustained winds of about 90mph. Forecasters are increasingly confident that Arthur will have enough time over warm water and low wind shear areas to grow into a Category 2 storm before getting recurved out to sea and making extratropical transition.
Track Forecast for Hurricane Arthur
Arthur is now forecast to brush by the Outer Banks of North Carolina sometime later today, and move to just about the 40N, 70W benchmark offshore of the Northeast by 8PM Friday. Given this current forecast track, confidence is increasing that we’ll continue to see heavy rain and showers through out Friday into Fridaynight, though not directly from Arthur itself. Rather, Arthur will be interacting with that cold front mentioned above to throw a wrench in everyone’s July 4th plans. Conditions should begin to improve rapidly Saturday as Arthur accelerates northeast, pushed by the cold front. We should see a return to sunny skies and seasonable weather Saturday with highs around the low 80s. Of particular concern are areas in Southeastern New England, which could see tropical storm conditions on Friday night into Saturday morning. Any deviation westward of this current forecast track would mean increased impacts on the Northeast, so this storm is worth watching closely. Regardless, high surface and dangerous riptides will be present on all Atlantic shorelines.
You may have already experienced it, but if you haven’t you’re probably seeing some huge clouds forming on the horizon. We’re in for some stormy weather this evening, as the Storm Prediction Center and our local forecast office have us under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The hot, humid atmosphere, along with ample sunshine earlier today, has made the atmosphere moderately unstable, with CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/Kg. This, along with mid-upper unidirectional shear will supply ample energy for strong to severe storms, with the greatest threat being frequent cloud to ground lightning and damaging winds.
As you see above, there are already strong storms in our vicinity. The storms north of the city have met severe thunderstorm criteria (wind gusts in excess of 58mph, hail greater than 1/4″ in diameter, or a tornado). More storms are forming to our southwest, so NYC itself should not be immune to the threat later on. Check out this image of a classic towering cumulonimbus (thundercloud) below!
Lots to talk about on the last day of June, which brings with it the opening of a warm trend and possible mini heat wave. A stubborn low pressure system over the Plains States is pushing warm and humid air from the Gulf ahead of a leading cold front. As a result, Tuesday will feature warm, muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s, maybe even touching 90.
Wednesday, that frontal boundary comes closer, and with the heat and humidity in place, we’ll have the right conditions for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms later in the day. However, coverage is expected to be widely scattered. Highs again will be in the upper 80s, possibly hitting 90.
Thursday -as the cold front makes its approach in earnest, a pre-frontal trough is forecast to develop, and this should help spark off more widespread showers and thunderstorms than on Wednesday. Expect high temperatures to be somewhat lower due to cloudy skies, but still warm and humid in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday (Independence Day) – A lot of weather forecasters were saying earlier this weekend that July 4th was going to be a nice day with no rain. Sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case now, as the timing of that pesky cold front has slowed down somewhat. This does mean you could see rain and or thunderstorms during the day Friday and into Friday night, but at least the heat will break somewhat with temperatures only around 80.
Cold front right on top of us Friday could rain on your July 4th plans.
First Named Tropical System of the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Over the weekend, a disturbance off the east coast of Florida began to show signs of increasing organization, to the point that the National Hurricane Center now gives the system an 80% chance of forming into a tropical depression in the next 2 days. If it does, then it will become the first named tropical system of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
High resolution satellite image of the incipient tropical system off the east coast of Florida
Why does this matter to us? Well, as it currently stands, it appears this tropical system/possible storm may impact our weekend weather here in the Northeast. Some forecast models have this storm moving to the near offshore waters of the Northeast by Saturday (indicated in pink circle below). This could bring the potential for rain to parts of the Northeast, in particular, New England. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this storm will strengthen much (below you see the lowest pressure at the center of 1012mb, for reference, normal pressure at sea level is 1013mb), and in fact, it will likely make a transition to becoming an extratropical cyclone/storm rather quickly after it moves north of Florida. Still, it’s a bit too early to tell just where this storm will go, so it bears monitoring.
Possible storm tracks as illustrated by several different forecast models
A warm and humid day out there in the Tri-State this afternoon. You can feel it’s potential thunderstorm weather. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion (analysis of weather conditions conducive to severe weather on a medium scale – 10km-500km). Very moist air, warm temperatures, combined with a slowly approaching cold front set the stage this afternoon for possible development of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. This is especially the case over inland areas, as depicted below. In general, expect a line of showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms to pass through the area later this evening into the overnight areas when the cold front finally pushes through.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html
Thursday – there could be some lingering showers in the AM, but things will dry out quickly and clouds will slowly give way to sunnier skies. High temperatures will be a bit cooler than today, in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Friday – a splendid end to the work week with mostly sunny skies and comfortable, less humid conditions and temperatures in the low 80s.
Canadian high pressure will move slowly to our east, ushering in some warm air and calm skies
Saturday and Sunday will both again feature excellent weather as a high pressure system works its way over our region following this cold front. As the high pressure slowly slides to the southeast, it will bring us southerly winds that will usher in another period of warm and humid weather. Saturday will be the better day of the weekend with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and lower humidity. By Sunday, temperatures will begin ramping up into the mid-80s with an increase in humidity. Early next week, we’ll be looking at a continuing warming trend with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s Monday and near 90 Tuesday before our next chance of rain.
You’ve felt the air warm up and become more humid as the warm front that brought our first round of rain passed through earlier today. Now, we’re getting set for a second round of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with a pre-frontal trough that’s slowly progressing east towards the area from Eastern Pennsylvania.
Ahead of this line of showers and thunderstorms, the air has destabilized readily with the ample sunshine earlier this afternoon. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy – a measure of how much fuel there is for thunderstorms to feed off of) is between 1000-1500 J/Kg over Northeastern New Jersey and NYC. This should allow for this line of storms to hold up and perhaps strengthen before hitting NYC. In fact, a couple sever thunderstorm warnings have already been posted for cells over Northeastern New Jersey.
An unsettled week is in store for us after a spectacular stretch of warm, sunny conditions this past weekend. The good news is, it looks as though the pattern of rain during the week, but clearing and warm weekends is set to continue.
Tuesday – a high pressure center over New England will swing a backdoor cold front through tomorrow. This will lead to a chance of showers during the afternoon hours, with cloudy conditions otherwise and highs in the mid-upper 70s.
Wednesday – essentially a repeat of Tuesday in terms of sensible weather. A stationary front will sit just south of NYC and allow for an increasing chance of showers and possibly a few scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the same range as Tuesday.
Thursday will probably bring the best chance of significant showers and thunderstorms coming ahead of an approaching warm front. Cloudy again, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, and a high in the upper 70s.Friday – the warm front mentioned above will slowly progress through the area during the day Friday, once again bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with mostly cloudy skies and highs once again in the upper 70s.
High pressure finally builds in during the day Saturday, which should lead to diminishing clouds, eventually mostly sunny skies for the rest of the weekend, and warmer temperatures in the low 80s.
What fantastic weather for the Memorial Day weekend! We topped off in the mid-80s across the area yesterday, and we’re likely to see another day with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s across the region (esp in interior portions of New Jersey).
Sadly, our stretch of summer-like temperatures is about to come to an end as a backdoor cold front (a front that does not approach from the west like most fronts do over this area) approaches the area from the north. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures are in the mid-80s and there is robust moisture in the atmosphere. This will provide the right ingredients for the possibility of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.
Possibility of Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon
Current thinking is that these storms approach the NYC metro around 4-7PM during the evening rush hour. The Storm Prediction Center has placed NYC, western Long Island, Northern New Jersey, and much of the Hudson Valley under a slight risk area for severe weather this afternoon. By the way, slight risk in this context does not indicate that storms which occur will not be that severe, rather, it is denoting that the probability for severe storms is on the low side, and that coverage is not expected to be widespread. Just so you all are clear, the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as producing one or more of the following:
Wind gusts greater than 58mph
Hail greater than 3/4″ in diameter
A funnel cloud or tornado
A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch means that conditions are favorable over an area for the development of these types of weather hazards, however, no immediate threat has yet been identified. A warning means that a severe thunderstorm or tornado is imminent or already ongoing, which is understandably a much more dangerous situation. Anyway, the most likely threat for our immediate area are damaging wind gusts and hail, although a few isolated tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out.
Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook – we are in the slight risk area highlighted in yellow
Wednesday – by tomorrow, the cold front responsible for the possible thunderstorms later today will have moved through our area, however, there is still a chance for lingering showers on the backside of this frontal boundary. Also, since this is a backdoor cold front, temperatures will be significantly cooler tomorrow than today with an onshore easterly wind keeping high temperatures only in the mid 60s (about 20 degrees cooler than today).
Thursday – an area of high pressure will build into the area, but due to its position to our northeast, it will also continue to usher in onshore easterly/northeasterly winds that will keep our high temperatures below normal in the upper 60s. Otherwise, it will be a nice, sunny day.
Friday – another cold front will approach the region from the west and bring in the possibility for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Slightly warmer with cloudy conditions and a high temperature near 70.
Saturday – high pressure will once again build in across the region and remain in place through the weekend. Therefore, am expecting pleasant, sunny conditions with about average temperatures in the mid-70s.
About that meteor shower… so as it turned out, the Camelopardalis meteor showers were a dud. Astronomers may have miscalculated the timing and/or amount of debris accumulated. Hey, it was the first time this particular shower was supposed to go down, so I guess you can’t blame them for not getting it right.
Today was an active weather day for the NYC area, particularly over New Jersey and upstate. A funnel cloud was spotted up in the Albany area, and a few severe thunderstorms exhibiting strong rotation (the strongest thunderstorms-supercells-often feature a single internal circulation called a mesocyclone) formed ahead of a cold front that’s still slowly pushing its way over western New Jersey. Some of these storms produced large hail over interior parts of the NYC metro area.
Friday there will continue to be a risk for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, otherwise it should be a mostly cloudy day with his right around 70.
In Oberlin, tomorrow should see skies gradually clearing with his in the mid-upper 60s.
NAM model simulated radar image for 5PM EDT Friday, May 23, 2014
Saturday still cannot rule out a lingering risk of thunderstorms and showers in the PM hours on Saturday as shortwaves (impulses of energy) continue to spin around the backside of the departing low pressure system that’s brought us this period of unsettled weather. Highs will again be around 70, depending on if breaks in clouds develop.
By Saturday, skies should clear out over Oberlin, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 70s.
NAM model simulated radar image for 2PM EDT Saturday, May 24, 2014
Sunday and Monday are still on track to be the best days of the Memorial Day weekend with temperatures in the upper 70s Sunday and low 80s Monday.
Camelopardalis Meteor Shower Visibility
Now about that meteor shower, will you be able to see it in NYC? Sadly, the answer is probably not, due to a forecast that calls for mostly cloudy skies. With cloudy conditions, light pollution is amplified as the light cast off from the city gets reflected back down even more. It will be a different story for Oberlin, though, where skies are forecast to clear due to the influence of building high pressure well before the anticipated peak of the meteor showers.
NWS hour by hour graphical forecasts. Red boxes indicate the forecast peak for the new Comet 209P/LINEAR Camelopardalis meteor shower. The blue line represents the percentage of the sky that’s forecast to be covered with clouds.
