Tag Archives: thunderstorms

NYC Weather Update – Jul 23, 2018

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Wet weather this weekend continues into much of this week as we settle into a pattern favoring rain chances every day. Tropical moisture remains firmly entrenched in the region due to an anomalously strong upper trough and deep layered southerly flow. A strong high pressure center over the western North Atlantic will block the progress of frontal boundaries until next weekend when we finally get a break from the wet weather.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers throughout the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy, high temperatures again in the low-80s. Lower chances for rain than the rest of the week due to the high pressure mentioned above retrograding west. This should keep things largely dry.

Wednesday – best chance for sustained bouts of heavy rain as a cold front approaches from the west but stalls out and dissipates. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies again. Flash flooding could be a concern given the atmospheric water content and the southerly steering currents parallel to the frontal boundary, favoring training of storms hitting the same area repeatedly.

Thursday – yet another day with the chance for showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures in the mid-80s and mostly cloudy.

NYC Weekend Update – Jul 20, 2018

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Last weekend’s beautiful, sunny weather will be but a fleeting memory this weekend as a coastal storm hits the area late Saturday going into Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and even some severe weather are possible Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for isolated flash flooding. Unsettled weather continues into next week with a tropical weather pattern setting up providing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – a great start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies.

Saturday – cool, with high temperatures only in the upper-70s due to the influence of easterly winds ahead of a warm front attached to the advancing coastal storm. Clouds increasing late in the day and rain chances picking up in the evening hours going into overnight. Chance for heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds (even an isolated tornado possible). Gusty east winds will make the overnight hours feel particularly cool and miserable.

Sunday – rain chances continue into the day and even Sunday night. Temperatures increase behind the passage of the warm front mentioned above and winds shifting to the south – high temperatures should be in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. All told, we could be looking at widespread rainfall totals of 1-3″ across the area.

Monday – showers likely again as temperatures remain in the mid-80s under mostly cloudy skies. A strong upper-level trough will be wedged between two areas of high pressure. The one off to our east over the western North Atlantic will continue to strengthen over the course of the week, blocking the eastward advance of this upper trough. This effectively will result in an extended period of southerly flow, with moist, tropical air coming our way. Multiple impulses of energy are expected to travel along this strong upper-level trough. Each one will bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern does not appear to break until next weekend, although it’s not as though each day will be a washout either.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jul 16, 2018

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This week starts off hot and humid before we get a break from the humidity as a cold front rolls through late Tuesday. This will be a relatively strong front, and with plenty of moisture in place prior to its passage, bouts of heavy rain are possible with the thunderstorms accompany it. Although high temperatures won’t dip too much following the cold front, dew points will, and this will bring a much drier and more comfortable feel.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the low-90s. A heat advisory is in effect due to the combination of hot temperatures and high dew points making for an oppressive, muggy day.

Tuesday – increasing clouds, high temperatures in the upper-80s prior to the onset of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, going into the evening hours and overnight. The set up of the atmosphere tomorrow could allow for some marginally severe storms to develop. The primary threat will be from heavy rain and some strong wind gusts given the moisture in place and somewhat favorable shear.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s but more comfortable with dew points significantly lower behind the cold front. Refreshing northerly winds should make for a nice day.

Thursday – another great day with sunny skies and with highs in the mid-80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 13, 2018

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Friday the 13th might be bad luck but not in terms of the weather this weekend. High pressure will only be briefly interrupted by the passage of a weak cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Not much in the way of rain expected with this front. Looking ahead, next Tuesday holds the best chance for appreciable rain. Temperatures will be on the warm side until late next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny and warm with highs in the upper-80s.

Saturday – mostly sunny then increasing clouds late as a cold front approaches. Highs around 90°F.

Sunday – slight chance for thunderstorms early, then partly sunny, highs in the upper-80s.

Monday – mostly sunny, highs in the upper-80s again.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2018

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This week starts off with a string of pleasant, dry conditions with Canadian high pressure in control. Temperatures will be a bit below normal due to the cool influence of this continental Canadian air mass. We get a chance for some rain mid-week, then temperature start warming up. Looking ahead, we could be seeing an extended period of 90°F+ temperatures starting the end of this week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, high temperatures around 80°F.

Tuesday – another great day with high temperatures just about 80°F and lots of sun.

Wednesday – increasing clouds as the next storm system approaches the region. High temperatures again about 80°F.

Thursday – overnight into Thursday, rain chances start to pick up as a warm front approaches the area from the southwest. This will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms, which will continue into Thursday. High temperatures will remain around the 80°F.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 22, 2018

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We got to enjoy one weekend last week where it didn’t rain at all. Unfortunately that won’t be the case this week with a storm passing through tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool with the influence of an onshore easterly wind before the passage of a warm front that will bring the chance for rain and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s.

Saturday – cloudy, with chances for rain and thunderstorms especially later in the day. The best chances for thunderstorms come with elevated convection late in the day and going into the overnight hours as a warm front approaches from the south. Temperatures will be cool in the mid-70s again.

Sunday – improving conditions with warmer temperatures in the warm sector after the passage of the warm front. Highs should reach into the mid-80s, possibly higher depending how much sun we get.

Monday – Canadian high pressure returns in the wake of this weekend’s storm and gives us sunny weather with mild temperatures in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 18, 2018

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A sultry start to this week will lead to cooler and more pleasant weather as the week wears on. We have two chances for rain, overnight tonight and then overnight Wednesday. Overall, it appears to be a dry week, with another unsettled weekend coming up.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We could set or break a record for Central Park today at 95ºF. A cold front approaching later tonight could touch off some strong thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain given the moist environment. The strongest storms will be limited to areas north of the city, away from the usualy stabilizing marine influence, and where wind shear profiles are stronger. Best timing for showers and thunderstorms will be 8PM tonight with a pre-frontal trough then early Tuesday morning with the actual cold front passing through.

Tuesday – behind this cold front, clouds should clear up, though tomorrow is still expected to be quite warm with high temperatures in the upper-80s. The main difference will be lower dew points that should result in a decidedly less muggy feel to the day.

Wednesday – warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. A weak disturbance pushing through overnight may bring some rain.

Thursday – nice day with high temperatures in the low-80s. Cooler, refreshing Canadian high pressure will dominate.

NYC Weather – Jun 12, 2018

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A mostly dry, and pleasant week is in store for us. We will see a steady warming trend, with the only real chance for wet weather happening Wednesday accompanying the passage of a warm front and cold front. Great weather lasts right into the weekend.

Rest of today – cool and sunny with high temperatures below normal in the low-70s due to the influence of easterly onshore winds.

Wednesday – a warm front will approach from the southwest. Ahead of that frontal boundary, we could see chances for mainly stratiform showery rain during the late morning hours. Behind this warm front, expect a humid feeling high in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies until the arrival of the trailing cold front. This second frontal boundary has a better chance to fire off a few thunderstorms, which could be locally strong, late in the evening and into the overnight hours.

Thursday – high pressure returns and gives us a nice sunny day of high temperatures in the low-80s with westerly winds bringing in warmer air from the interior.

Friday – slightly cooler in the upper-70s to around 80ºF but lots of sun again with high pressure staying in control but shifting east.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 1, 2018

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This weekend’s weather will feel gloomy and feature multiple chances for rain. The influence of the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will influence the air mass, making it feel very humid, and allowing for the potential for heavy rain. Going into next week, mixed signals from major forecast models hint at the possibility for a coastal storm.

Rest of today – an early round of rain and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a warm front should give way to a relatively rain-free day. Fog should begin to dissipate as the rain passes through. Temperatures will be mild, in the low-80s with overcast conditions, with a muggy feel due to the influence of a tropical air mass (thanks Alberto!). Late in the day and into the overnight hours, a cold front will approach that could spark a few more storms.

Saturday – the cold front that approaches from the northwest overnight will slow down as it nears us and stall out in our vicinity. An impulse of upper-level energy will move through and likely spawn a low pressure center in the area. This will lead to better chances for rain than today. Temperatures will be around 80°F again with overcast skies.

Sunday – this will be the best day of the weekend as Canadian high pressure attempts to build in. This should yield dry conditions, though there will probably still be plenty of clouds around. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs around 70°F in this Canadian air mass.

Monday – there are mixed signals in forecast models that suggest the possibility of a coastal storm developing early next week. At this point it appears we’ll have a wet start to the week with cool temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy skies, as well as more rain.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 25, 2018

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Memorial Day weekend in NYC kicks off with two incredible days of summer-like weather with excellent conditions for all outdoor activities, including hitting the beach. The weather shifts markedly for Sunday and Monday as a cooler air mass takes hold of the region behind a backdoor cold front. Temperature could be 15ºF-20ºF cooler between the first and second half of the weekend. Rain will accompany the passage of the backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. No day will be a washout though.

Rest of today – sunny with breezy southwesterly winds bringing in warm air. Temperatures should soar into the upper-80s with a few spots reaching the 90ºF mark outside of coastal areas where sea breezes should set up fairly quickly.

Saturday – warm again with high temperatures likely reaching to around 90ºF away from south-facing shores with the influence of sea breezes. Late in the day towards the evening hours, a backdoor cold front will be approaching from the north. Ahead of this frontal boundary, clouds will increase throughout the day, and some pop up showers and thunderstorms could occur. Sea breezes may help initiate some of these storms closer to the coast. Given that there will be some instability in the atmosphere, a couple of these storms could approach severe limits, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain.


Sunday – overnight from Saturday into Sunday is when the bulk of the rain associated with this cold front will fall. There could be a scattered thunderstorm overnight. Rain will impact the beginning of the day Sunday, but conditions should improve later in the afternoon. Behind the backdoor front, easterly onshore winds will predominate, leading to much cooler temperatures only in the low-70s under cloudy skies.

Monday (Memorial Day) – cool with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.

 

First Tropical Storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Although our weekend weather won’t be ideal, we are lucky not to have to plan for anything worse. Residents of the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida Panhandle will need to contend with the arrival of the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Alberto.