Tag Archives: tropical storm

NYC Weekend, Tropical Storm Fay Weather – Jul 10, 2020

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Tropical Storm Fay will bring heavy rain, strong winds, flash flooding to start the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of NYC as well as coastal New Jersey and Connecticut, including all of Long Island. Conditions should start to improve Saturday as Fay continues tracking north and inland. We may even see some sun by Sunday. Temperatures start in the low-80s with the rain and clouds from Fay, but should be warming up upper-80s later on this weekend.

Rest of today – cooler with high temperatures in the low-80s. Windy and rain, with bouts of heavy, tropical downpours. 2-4″ of rain are possible with this storm. Sustained winds could approach tropical storm force (30-40 mph) near Fay’s core if it tracks over us. Otherwise, gusts up to 50 mph are possible. The main threat from Fay is from the heavy rains that could produce flash flooding. Overnight lows in the low-70s with tropical storm conditions still possible as Fay lifts north.

  • National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Fay.
  • Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Fay. Note the widespread totals of 2-4″ possible in our region.

Saturday – as Fay lifts north and inland, it will weaken rapidly. Conditions should improve with a spell of dry weather possible before another non-tropical frontal system impacts the area with thunderstorms possible. Temperatures should be warm, in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing behind the passage of this cold front.

Sunday – we may start off dry with some sun, which could allow temperatures to climb to the low-90s. However, scattered thunderstorms are possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Monday – similar day to Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Partly sunny skies to start and isolated thunderstorms possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

NYC Weekend Weather – May 15, 2020

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We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.

Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather

Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.

  • National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
  • GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
  • GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 11, 2018

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This Mother’s Day weekend will unfortunately feature mostly unsettled and cool weather, though no day will be a complete washout. A frontal boundary will just linger in our vicinity during this period, moving north as a warm front, then retreating south as a cold front. This will allow multiple subtle upper level disturbances to move along this boundary, and each of these will bring a chance for rain.

Rest of today – splendid day with sunny skies and just about average high temperatures around 70ºF.

Saturday – chance for rain early between 7-11AM, then a period of mostly cloudy skies until another round of showers with some thunderstorms rolls through in the evening between 8-10PM. Cooler with high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – chance for showers in the morning, with steadier rain possible through early afternoon. Cool, with northeasterly onshore winds, and high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain chances should diminish later in the day.

Monday – drying out with temperatures in the low-70s and partly sunny skies.

Possible Tropical Storm Impacting the US During Memorial Day?

Consecutive runs of the GFS forecast model continue to suggest that a subtropical/tropical storm could develop in the western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua in the next 10 days or so. It’s far too early to be certain of this, but the trend is worth noting. Recent runs suggest that this storm could make landfall on Florida and then travel up the east coast.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 28, 2017

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Nice weather from the weekend continues today. Chance for rain on Tuesday. Temperatures remain below normal through the week except Thursday. Labor Day weekend looks to start off like autumn.

Rest of today – clouds this morning expected to dissipate somewhat. Below normal temperatures with highs in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a disturbance off the coast of northeast Florida has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Irma. Regardless of whether the storm successfully undergoes tropical cyclogenesis, it is still anticipated to bring us some tangible weather impacts. This would be in the form of some rain especially later in the day as it makes a transition to an extra-tropical storm.

Easterly onshore winds from this storm to our south will suppress high temperatures in the low-70s and give us a mostly cloudy day.

Wednesday – unlike Tropical Storm Harvey, the storm above will accelerate quickly out to the Atlantic, so Wednesday should turn out to be a pretty decent day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back to the upper-70s.

Thursday – a cold front will pass through the area during the day and could trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. Warmer air ahead of the cold front should give us about average high temperatures in the low-80s.

 

Peak Hurricane Season

We’re on the cusp of the traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, which typically begins around late August and lasts through till late September. This period typically sees the highest oceanic surface temperatures (due to the specific heat of water being relatively high, there’s a lag in time between peak solar heating of summer and actual peak ocean temperatures), which in ups the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Not surprisingly, we’ve got Harvey still devastating the Texas coast, about to re-emerge over open water before making a second landfall later this week. We’ve also got a possible tropical cyclone off of the Southeast coast and another tropical wave moving offshore of Africa that could develop into a tropical storm as it moves west. A lot of activity to monitor, hoping that none of it comes our way!

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 20, 2016

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This week has seen unprecedented and record breaking warmth for the middle of October, with temperatures that were more indicative of mid-June. But this weekend, we’re about to get a dose of reality as temperatures drop dramatically to below normal levels, in some cases 25ºF cooler than mid-week. We get some chances for much needed rain as well with some uncertainty due to the interaction of a possible tropical/subtropical system.

Rest of today – cloudy with a high around 70ºF. Chance of rain late in the day and into the overnight hours.

Friday – chances for rain increase throughout the day and especially in the evening and overnight hours. Interaction with a possible tropical/subtropical system complicates the forecast in terms of where the heaviest rain sets up. High temperatures in the mid-70s and mostly cloudy.

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Saturday – the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather off the Bahamas that they’re giving a 50% of becoming a named tropical/subtropical system in the next few days. Regardless of whether a named storm forms, this system is expected to merge with an approaching cold front Saturday. This would give the cold front an extra shot of energy and moisture, though it would appear that the bulk of this moisture and rain falls well north of the area. Behind this cold front, the pressure gradient tightens and cold air rushes in from Canada, resulting in a blustery, though sunny, day with high temperatures struggling to hit 60ºF and a brisk northwest wind.

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at201699_model

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Sunday – winds die down, and temperatures rebound to average levels in the low-60s under mostly sunny skies.

 

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – TS Hermine – Sep 2, 2016

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I wrote that I would not be posting any updates while on vacation unless there were to be a special event that warranted it. Well, the likely approach of the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine into the offshore waters in our region certainly warrants this special update. As of now, it appears that Labor Day itself will be the only day when we could see significant impacts from this storm, but this could change. I will likely have another update Sunday.

Rest of today – sunny, and pleasant with a high in the low-80s. This will be by far the best day of the long weekend.

Saturday – increasing clouds, high temperature around 80ºF.

Sunday – mostly cloudy, with chances for rain increasing in the afternoon. Cool, with highs only in the mid-upper 70s.

Labor Day (Monday) – tropical storm conditions possible, strong and gusty winds, and possible periods of heavy rain, especially in coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents at the beaches, as well as moderate to major coastal flooding. Mostly cloudy otherwise with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tropical Storm Hermine this morning
Tropical Storm Hermine this morning

Tuesday – with the remnants of Hermine currently forecast to linger off of the coast of the Northeast, we could see another day of possible tropical storm conditions. Warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s.

Tropical Storm Hermine’s Forecast

Since the inception of Hermine as a tropical wave off the coast of West Africa, forecasters have had difficulty in accurately capturing the track and intensity of this storm. Its approach towards our region is no different. The forecast is complicated by the fact that Hermine will be completing a process of extratropical transition. A complex set of interactions between it and a frontal boundary adds a high degree of uncertainty towards the late period of this forecast.

Forecast Track

As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center’s official 5 day forecast called for Hermine to continue tracking rapidly northeast just inland of the Southeast coast as it initially interacts with a frontal boundary in its vicinity. During this period, it is expected to weaken, but by Saturday evening, it is expected to re-emerge over open water off the North Carolina Coast. At this point, Hermine is expected to have completed extratropical transition. It will begin another interaction with a baroclinic frontal zone, which is expected to significantly slow its forward progress down. This slowing will likely also lead to the storm erratically meandering off the Northeast coast, possibly doing a loop.

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at201609_model
Some major forecast model’s current output for Hermine

at201609_ensmodel
GFS ensemble models (spaghetti models), white denotes the consensus track

Intensity Forecast

During the period that the storm is over land, it will weaken continuously. However, by Saturday evening, when it is expected to re-emerge over open water, and complete extratropical transition, it will gain in strength. The extratropical transition will impart energy from baroclinic forces (interactions between airmasses of differing pressures), and the storm is expected to re-intensify into a strong extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-65mph.

Impacts

The intensity and location of these impacts will depend greatly on the eventual track for this storm.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the entire New Jersey coast. Heavy rain in coastal areas. Strong sustained winds, winds gusting in excess of 50mph in some coastal areas. Beach erosion along with coastal flooding, possibly for an extended period of time. High surf and dangerous rip currents.

 

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 27, 2016

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It’s been a week of hot, summer-like temperatures in the city, and this will continue into the Memorial Day weekend as the official kickoff of the summer season gets underway. It’s going to be an excellent weekend for hitting the beach as a pleasant, cooling sea breeze will be present. Memorial Day itself looks increasingly like a rainy day, with precipitation enhanced by an influx of tropical moisture from what could very shortly become the second named tropical storm (Bonnie) of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Rest of today – warm and humid with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90ºF. Cloud cover increases this afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are possible along a sea breeze front, mostly confined to upper elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Saturday – sunny, hot and humid again with high temperatures around 90ºF – a persistent Bermuda High will be the driver of these hot temperatures.

Screen Shot 2016-05-27 at 12.06.00 PM

Sunday – another very warm day with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. A backdoor cold front is expected to near the area, but not push through and this frontal boundary could serve as a trigger for thunderstorms, but these will be limited to areas north of the city.

Monday (Memorial Day) – significantly cooler, mostly cloudy, with periods of rain likely as a cold front approaches slowly from the west. High temperatures in the mid-70s. Rainfall may be enhanced by tropical moisture associated with what will likely become Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie

An area of showers associated with a low pressure center off the coast of Florida has been steadily becoming better organized over the last couple days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 90% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie. Though there won’t be a direct impact on this region, the moisture from this storm could drive heavy rain on Monday.

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Satellite imagery of the low pressure area that is likely to become TS Bonnie

A Hot Summer Coming?

The Climate Prediction Center continues to call for a hot summer for almost the entirety of the United States in its latest 3 month temperature outlook.

off01_temp

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 8, 2015

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Another splendid weekend is in store for us with warm temperatures in the upper-70s and near 80. Subtropical Storm Ana marks the first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It is not expected to bring us any direct impacts, however, it could bring moisture our way that could supplement a storm system forecast to pass through early next week.

Rest of today – early fog has burned off, skies have cleared, and temperatures should top out near 80. We have been under the persistent influence of a high pressure center that has been responsible for pumping in this warm, moist air from the south.

Saturday – clouds and sun, with sunny breaks more likely to appear near the coast in the afternoon. High temperatures should be a bit cooler in the mid-70s with the influence of clouds, however, any sunny breaks could easily shoot temperatures up a few degrees.

Sunday – once again, Sunday comes through as the best day of the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-80s.USA_East

Monday – clouds for the most part as a frontal boundary approaches from our north and west. High temperatures will still be quite mild with the influence of high pressure bringing southerly winds, expecting a high again near 80. Some chance for afternoon thunderstorms to develop as that frontal boundary nears.

Tuesday – probably our best shot at getting measurable rainfall as the aforementioned front passes through. Some left over moisture from Ana could work its way into this setup. Ahead of the front, temperatures should still rise into the upper-70s. It’ll be noticeably cooler for the second half of the week.

 

Subtropical Storm Ana

We have our first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season which doesn’t officially begin until June 1st. Subtropical Storm Ana developed out of a weak tropical disturbance off of Florida. This just goes to show, a tropical cyclone can form under the right conditions at any time of the year.

Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning - Geostationary Satellite Server
Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning – Geostationary Satellite Server

Subtropical Storm Ana fortunately does not have much time to organize and intensify before it makes landfall on the coast of the Carolinas. This should limit any serious damage, however, these areas will likely experience prolonged high winds, torrential rain, and coastal flooding.

Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana
Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana

NYC Weather Update – Sept 9, 2014

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This week features a rather active pattern, with several chances for precipitation starting with today.

Tuesday – there is some small chance for scattered rain showers today associated with an area of low pressure that is currently located over North Carolina. However, this chance of rain will be primarily confined to areas south of the city. As the area of low pressure slowly moves offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states, the pressure gradient will strengthen, allowing for a persistent easterly wind to continue transporting cool, maritime air into the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, with highs similar to yesterday in the mid-70s.

Wednesday – conditions will improve somewhat as the aforementioned area of low pressure exits east over the Atlantic. We will still not be able to escape a cool, onshore wind from the northeast, so even though clouds will diminish, high temperatures will again struggle to reach 80.

Screen Shot 2014-09-09 at 8.50.45 AM
Cold front approaches on Thursday

Thursday – the most substantial chance for rain this week will arrive with the passage of a cold front late in the day Thursday into the overnight hours. Warmer air from the southwest ahead of the cold front will translate to about average high temperatures in the low 80s under cloudy skies. As the cold front nears, showers and some thunderstorms will be possible. Current timing of the forecast models suggest that the bulk of the rain will not arrive until the evening hours.

Friday – conditions will improve Friday as high pressure builds in again in the wake of the cold front passing Thursday. Temperatures will drop back into the mid-70s with cooler, Canadian air filtering in from the north behind the front.

Tropical Storm Edouard?

Tropical wave off the coast of Western Africa
Tropical wave off the coast of Western Africa

A vigorous tropical wave moved offshore of Western Africa earlier this week, and is being monitored for possibility of tropical storm formation later this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain favorable for development with low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. This storm may bring some impacts to the East Coast of the United States, but it is too early at this point to know the scope of that impact.

 

NYC Weather Update – Aug 22, 2014

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We had a solid round of rain from some showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area overnight. Over the weekend, high pressure will start to build into the area, ushering in a period of calm, pleasant, and seasonable weather.

Saturday & Sunday – clouds will diminish later Saturday, and by Sunday we’ll see mostly clear skies. Both days will feature high temperatures around 80.

Monday – as you see below, by Monday an area of high pressure will be firmly entrenched over our region. This high pressure area will persist through the middle of the week, giving us fair conditions and pleasant highs in the low 80s.

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High pressure firmly entrenched in the Northeast for the beginning of next week.

Tuesday & Wednesday will look and feel essentially the same with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Our next chance of rain will be later in the week, perhaps Thursday into Friday with the arrival of a cold front from the west.

In the Tropics

There’s a tropical disturbance currently positioned offshore of Puerto Rico that will very likely become the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s third named storm, Cristobal. You can already begin to see the storm organizing, as over the last day or so, a circulation has become evident, and strong thunderstorms are forming in the northern semicircle are also apparent (see the classic cauliflower tops). Outflow bands are also forming up (thin wispy clouds north and northeast of the center).

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 12.49.40 PM
High resolution satellite image of the tropical disturbance

This storm will fell some negative impacts from the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. As you can see, the southern semicircle is considerably less organized than the northern.

As for the track of the storm, you can see the rather large spread between the different forecast models, which is not surprising given that the storm is still in its early stages. Note that there is an outlier model solution showing landfall on the Mid-Atlantic. This is unlikely at this point, but worth noting. It seems, given the conditions ahead of the storm, that this will become Tropical Storm Cristobal in the next couple days, and may become Hurricane Cristobal shortly thereafter.

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