A heat wave is on for the end of August, and will persist into the beginning of September. A hot, humid tropical airmass will be firmly in control through out the early and mid-week period before we get some heat relief late in the week. The hot temperatures and a lack of widespread precipitation may allow drought to redevelop in some parts of the region, and worsen over Long Island.
Rest of today – possibly the hottest day of the week, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s inland despite some cloud cover and uncomfortable humidity levels.
Tuesday – a weak backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, although no precipitation is anticipated due to insufficient instability. Tomorrow should see high temperatures in the lower 90s again under sunnier skies.
Wednesday – the heat wave continues with temperatures yet again expected to top out in the low-mid 90s with sunny skies. There could be a few isolated pop-up showers/thunderstorms late in the day with very limited coverage.
Thursday – expected to be the last day of the heat wave, sunny with high temperatures at or above 90.
A heatwave over the weekend breaks Tuesday, as we enter an extended period of unsettled weather for the mid-week period. Temperatures cool off somewhat into the mid-80s, slightly above average for this time of year. Each day, except Tuesday perhaps will carry some small but non-zero chance of rain.
Rest of today – the possibility exists for some isolated thunderstorms to form over portions of the region this afternoon. The setup would be similar to yesterday when the temperature differential resulting from a sea breeze served as the trigger for some slow-moving storms. Plenty of instability from the heat and humidity and very little convective inhibition will mean that storms could form rapidly. However, the exact location of where these storms form is difficult to pinpoint. Areas that experience storms could expect heavy rain, otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures that could touch record levels in the mid-90s.
High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 2PM EDT today
Tuesday – a bit cooler with temperatures in the upper-80s and sunny skies to start, clouds increasing towards the evening.
Wednesday – high temperatures will cool off further into the mid-80s under cloud cover, and there will be a chance for rain throughout the day. This precipitation is associated with a slow-moving cold front approaching from the west.
Thursday – a similar day to Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more sun, but highs again in the mid-80s and a chance of rain through the day
The weather story for the first part of this week will be a prolonged heavy rain event occurring Tuesday, delivering parts of the region some much needed precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday, first because of the rain and clouds and then due to the influence of high pressure to our west.
Rest of today – NYC remains under mostly sunny skies, however, cloud cover is building to our west, so we could end up with more clouds later this afternoon. It will be a noticeably more humid day, although temperatures will still only top out in the low-80s.
Tuesday – rain should begin falling in the early overnight hours, and looks to persist through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. The heaviest rain seems likely to fall during the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, and while the atmospheric conditions will not be very favorable (timing of the strongest lift will occur early in the day before any substantial daytime heating, which will be diminished due to cloud cover anyway), a few strong storms could still pop up in the morning. Some areas could see some isolated flash flooding if storm cells end up training over the same spots. Under the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures should be limited again to the low-80s.
North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday
Wednesday – rain will have cleared out after the passage of the cold front responsible for Tuesday’s storms. Behind this cold front, high pressure will set up over the Ohio Valley, bringing in cool, dry air. Temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low-mid 80s with low humidity.
Thursday – the pattern of cool, dry weather continues with another day of sunny skies and high temperatures slightly below normal in the low-80s.
Drought Relief
A slight/moderate drought continues to cling to areas of Long Island and costal Connecticut, as you can see from the map below. It does appear that this upcoming Tuesday storm will bring some much needed rain to these particular areas. As you’ll also note from the map of forecast precipitation totals for Tuesday, some of the highest totals are expected precisely in the areas that need them the most.
Weather Prediction Center’s Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday
The end of this week and weekend will be characterized by comfortable conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front from Canada will be approaching from the west by Sunday, however, this frontal boundary looks to weaken as it nears the area. There should be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms, but it is likely most areas stay dry through the weekend.
Rest of today – high pressure over the Ohio Valley will yield sunny skies, with a high in the mid-80s. Dry air moving from the west will make for a pleasant feel today.
Friday – high pressure remains in control tomorrow, providing for conditions almost identical to today, with highs again in the mid-80s under sunny skies with low humidity.
Saturday – although the high pressure center will weaken somewhat as it moves east on Saturday, it will still dominate our sensible weather, leading to yet another day of basically the same weather conditions with highs in the mid-80s and plenty of sun.
Sunday – with the high continuing to weaken and move to the southeast, we get a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary originating in Canada moving into the region. Rain chances aren’t all that high, though, so it’s likely most areas stay dry. Highs again in the mid-80s with increasing cloud cover.
Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT
Drought Update
Drought conditions over New York state have drastically abated since the beginning of the month, especially in upstate regions. However, moderate drought persists over parts of Long Island.
Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.
This week will feature two contrasting airmasses, with the beginning of the week influenced by a warm, humid airmass, before a cold front Wednesday brings some relief from the heat and humidity and brings in cooler, drier air. A warm front, then this cold front, along with the warm temperatures and humidity will lead to the chance for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Rest of today – warm, humid, with hazy skies and a high in the mid-upper 80s.
Tuesday – a warm front approaches the area from the southwest then stalls to our south. Winds shift to the southeast, providing somewhat of a cooling effect with a sea breeze. However, inland areas should still see temperatures well into the mid-80s. A wave of low pressure will be sliding east along the stalled frontal boundary during the day Tuesday, however, the best chances for rain and thunderstorms associated with this wave look to be confined to areas well west of NYC. A spotty shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the city.
Wednesday – as the stationary front from Tuesday moves away, a cold front will be pushing through the region on Wednesday. This will allow for the chance of rain and thunderstorms to persist. Chances for precipitation Wednesday are overall lower than Tuesday, and it will be a set up where most of the area stays dry, with only a few locations picking up appreciable rainfall from a passing storm. Highs will continue to be warm in the mid-upper 80s ahead of the cold front passing through.
Thursday – following the passage of the cold front, high pressure will build over the region. Clockwise flow around this high pressure will usher in refreshing, drier air with a north wind. Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler, in the low-80s.
We get a dose of summer weather this week, after a rather cool start to July this past weekend. Along with the warmer temperatures, there will also be some chance for unsettled weather up until Friday as a cold front transits late Wednesday into Thursday.
Tuesday – clouds and sun with high temperatures topping out in the mid-80s and possibly upper-80s in a few spots. There is a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon especially in western portions of the region.
Wednesday – clouds mixed with some sun again with a warm, tropical airmass in place ahead of a cold front allowing for high temperatures to rise into the upper-80s to low-90s in a few spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, however, forecast models are still presenting disparate outcomes as to the exact timing and coverage of precipitation Wednesday. With warm temperatures and ample moisture, storms that do form have the potential to produce periods of heavy rain.
Thursday – chances for rain and thunderstorms continue into the overnight hours Thursday, but it does appear that we get a break during the morning. High temperatures will be quite warm again in the upper-80s despite a cold front having moved through. Another weak disturbance is forecast to approach the area in the afternoon, giving us another chance at some showers and thunderstorms.
The official start of summer was this weekend, and this week will be accompanied by decidedly summer-like weather. High temperatures for the first half of the week will be quite warm, in the mid-upper 80s, with some areas probably passing the 90º mark on Tuesday. Along with the summer-like temperatures, there will also be a chance for strong thunderstorms.
Rest of today – sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise up into the upper-80s and possibly 90 in the city. However, since humidity and dewpoints are low, it will not feel oppressively hot.
Tuesday – a cold front approaching from the west could serve as the trigger for some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Ahead of this cold front, continued southwesterly winds will maintain very warm temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s in some parts.
Timing of thunderstorms looks to be in the late afternoon, possibly around the PM rush, with a line of storms moving . Warm temperatures and a humid airmass look to yield moderate SBCAPE (surface-based convective available potential energy) values in the 2000-3000 J/Kg range. This environment should support intensification for any storms that form to marginally severe limits. Correspondingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the area in a slight risk area for severe weather tomorrow, except for eastern Long Island and Connecticut.
North American model high resolution simulated radar for Tuesday, 5PM EDT
Wednesday – behind the cold front, things dry out and temperatures should cool off a bit, with high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Thursday – this will begin a period of unsettled weather that looks poised to persist through the weekend. The front that moves south of us Wednesday then stalls not too far, and remains nearly stationary starting Thursday. Several waves of low pressure are expected to move along this frontal boundary. While at this time, Thursday looks dry, cloud cover will be increasing and temperatures should be cooler, only around 80.
We start the week off with some much needed rain and a noticeable cool down in temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage later today and transition into more widespread showers that are expected to persist into the overnight hours. The start of the week will be rainy, cloudy, and cool under the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass. By midweek, we get back into more fair conditions with the sun returning and temperatures back in the mid-70s.
Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas of Northeastern New Jersey in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms later. Based on latest radar trends and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s output, it would appear that thunderstorms are likely to develop over portions of New Jersey highlighted in the slight risk area, then track eastwards into the NYC metro area later this afternoon into the early evening hours. With breaks in the clouds for sun, we’ll hit temperatures in the low-80s, which when coupled with ample moisture, should support thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 8PM EST
Monday – all the activity occurring today and going into the overnight hours is associated with a cold front that is moving south into our area. As this cold front pushes through, east-northeast winds will set up, allowing a cooler, Canadian maritime airmass in. This will translate into cooler than average temperatures only in the mid-60s with showers likely throughout the day.
Tuesday – wet, cool weather continues Tuesday with highs again only in the mid-60s and the ongoing chance for rain showers throughout the day. This extended period of rain from later today into Tuesday should bring some relief to the moderate drought conditions over parts of the Northeast, with the potential for as much as 4″ of rain over the period in certain parts of the region.
Possible total rainfall over the next 48 hours
Wednesday – high pressure finally builds back in Wednesday, pushing away the rainy weather, and yielding pleasant temperatures in the low-mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.
Thursday – slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the upper-70s in NYC.
This week starts off with a backdoor front over us, bringing us much cooler temperatures than yesterday, as well as patchy dense fog. Tomorrow, the Canadian maritime airmass responsible for these conditions will be replaced by a warm, moist airmass originating from the Gulf. By mid-week, a passing cold front will usher in seasonable, and dry conditions to the region.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy, cool, with an easterly wind suppressing temperatures, which will top off in the mid-60s.
Tuesday – the backdoor front above will move back north overnight as a warm front. This will allow a transition to a southwesterly flow, which will bring warm, Gulf air into the area. High temperatures should be in the mid-70s amidst cloudy skies, punctuated by periods of rain as a cold front approaches from the west. There is some chance at a couple thunderstorms as well.
Wednesday – when the cold front moves through late Tuesday, it will set up cooler, but pleasant, dry, and sunny conditions on Wednesday. High temperatures around 70.
Thursday – the good weather continues with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.
This week will be a tale of two airmasses, starting with a warm, moist, maritime tropical one, and transitioning to a more seasonable, cool, dry, continental polar airmass (don’t be alarmed, polar refers to the origin of this airmass, not necessarily the temperatures, although some light frost might occur later this week far inland). In terms of sensible weather, you will notice a marked change between warm, humid, summer-like weather Monday and Tuesday, and cool, windy, and crisp spring-like conditions to end the week.
Rest of today – basically a repeat of Sunday, high temperatures topping out in the low-80s. There is a very slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the inland areas west of NYC where some instability might develop from daytime heating. South-facing shores will be noticeably cooler and cloudier due to an onshore wind from the south off the ocean.
Tuesday – some fog and clouds early, then mostly cloudy with a chance for rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures remain much above normal in the low-mid 80s.
Wednesday – the aforementioned cold front makes its passage, and brings in its wake a return to more seasonable weather. Average temperatures for this time of year are only around 65ºF, and that’s just about where we will end up on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. There will be a noticeable wind from the northwest as well, making it feel extra crisp.
Thursday – sunny and dry, with a slight rebound in temperatures into the upper-60s.
