Tag Archives: warm front

NYC Weather Update | First Look @ Memorial Day Weekend – May 19, 2014

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All preliminary indications are that this Memorial Day weekend should see fairly good weather, as you can read in the detailed discussion below. First, for your work week forecast:

For the remainder of the day today, there is a slight chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm as cumulus clouds continue to build. This risk will cease as the sun begins to go down, and cuts off the heat source for these clouds. Overnight lows will fall into the low 50s in the city (not as cold as last night, as some clouds are expected to stick around early and stunt the potential for good radiational cooling), with 40s in the interior.

Tuesday will be the best day of the week, with high pressure briefly building in from the west. This will lead to mostly clear skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s (also partially due to an incoming warm front).

Beginning Wednesday, we will see a period of unsettled weather as a relatively slow moving storm system approaches. This system will develop over the Great Lakes, and a warm front is forecast to be approaching our area during the day Wednesday. There will be an increasing chance of showers throughout the day as the warm front nears, with the best chance for precipitation in the late evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will be slightly lower than Tuesday in the mid-70s.

HPC's Day 3 forecast for the US
HPC’s Day 3 forecast for the US

Thursday there is a bit of uncertainty regarding the eastward progression of the warm front mentioned above. If the warm front has already passed over us, then we’ll be in the warm sector between the warm front and approaching cold front. This would lead to favorable conditions for some thunderstorms. Otherwise, we would expect mostly cloudy skies and a chance for more showery precipitation. High temperatures will be similar to Wednesday.

Friday, with the cold front Thursday having moved through and high pressure slowly building in, we would expect a good day weather-wise. However, as you see in the following image, the center of the now occluded low pressure is forecast to remain nearly stationary off the coast of New England. This is due to a blocking high over the North Atlantic (not pictured). Therefore, a chance of showers is forecast for both Friday and Saturday, with skies gradually clearing from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny Saturday. High temperatures Friday is forecast to be in the low 70s.

Screen Shot 2014-05-19 at 1.52.00 PM

Now, the all important initial weekend forecast: as depicted above, high pressure building over the Great Lakes should progress generally southeast towards the Carolinas during the weekend. This should translate into improving weather each day during the weekend and increasing temperatures. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday should see high temperatures climbing from the low to mid 70s, and skies clearing to become mostly sunny.

For those of you reading this forecast who are traveling towards Oberlin and points west, the forecast for those parts is actually even better than for New York City in terms of sunshine, although, as you know temperatures will be slightly cooler in Ohio than here.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 30, 2014

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Are you wondering why today is so cool with highs barely touching 50, but tomorrow is forecast to have high temperatures in the low 70s? It’s because there’s a warm front currently situated to our south. Let me clarify the two most common types of frontal boundaries:

  1. A warm front delineates a boundary where the airmass behind the front is significantly warmer than the airmass ahead of it.
  2. A cold front, not surprisingly, applies to the reverse situation and delineates a boundary where the airmass behind the front is significantly colder than the airmass ahead of it.

Currently, a warm front sits south of us, causing an onshore flow (easterly winds) off the frigid Atlantic Ocean. Why the easterly winds? Looking at the image below, you’ll see yellow contour lines that demarcate isobars of pressure. In the Northern Hemisphere, air flows counterclockwise around a low pressure center and clockwise around a high pressure center. The counterclockwise flow also applies to the frontal boundaries attached to a low pressure center.

In our present situation, the air flows towards the east (counterclockwise) south of the west-east oriented warm front (in red), and then from the east to west north of it. Hence, we are experience very cool conditions, and the moisture being funneled off the Atlantic Ocean into our region is fueling these steady showers.

Current surface analysis from the WPC with my overlay showing movement of the warm front to our south.
Current surface analysis from the WPC with my overlay showing movement of the warm front to our south.

We should actually see temperatures begin to rise overnight as the warm front pushes through the area. Once this occurs, we will be in what is referred to as the “warm sector”, which is an area that sits behind a warm front and ahead of an advancing cold front. This type of setup is favorable for the development of thunderstorms.

Therefore, Thursday will be a warm, cloudy day with high temperatures in the low 70s and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.

Friday, with the cold front having passed through, conditions will clear up and we’ll have a nice, sunny day, with temperatures near 70. There will be a chance for afternoon showers.

Saturday continues the trend of nice weather with another day in the upper 60s and mostly sunny skies. Again, there will be a chance for afternoon showers, especially inland where daytime heating can produce enough energy (and instability) to induce those showers.

One other note about today and tomorrow, and that’s the whopping headline numbers for how much rain is forecast to fall, with totals ranging from as high as 3″+ in the western portions of the Tristate to 1.5″+ in the east. This could easily cause flooding in poor drainage areas, small streams, and urban areas.Screen Shot 2014-04-30 at 1.50.54 PM

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Apr 28, 2014

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After a beautiful start to the work week, we are looking at a wet and cool mid-week before things clear up this coming weekend.

A low pressure center that is currently pounding the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley with hail, tornadoes, and severe storms will slowly move into the Great Lakes region. Once it does so, a strong area of high pressure situated over Quebec will prevent the low from making steady progress.

Therefore, Tuesday-Thursday will each see a chance for rain showers, in particular on Wednesday when a warm front associated with the aforementioned low pressure center makes its approach towards our region. Due to the long duration of the precipitation event and the possibility of heavy downpours Wednesday, there may be some localized small stream and urban street flash flooding.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be quite cool with highs only in the mid 50s caused by onshore winds from the cool Atlantic waters flowing from the southeast and east ahead of the warm front. Once the warm front passes through on Wednesday night, temperatures will jump dramatically as we enter the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of an advancing cold front. High temperatures Thursday could easily top 70.

A persistent low pressure center is forecast to track very slowly across the Great Lakes this week.
A persistent low pressure center is forecast to track very slowly across the Great Lakes this week.

Friday should see an end to this period of active weather as the high pressure over Canada weakens and finally allows this low to lift out of the area. Highs will be pleasant in the mid to upper 60s.

NYC Midweek Weather – Feb 19, 2014

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Sorry about the lapse in posts! Tuesday ended up being a pretty active weather day with showers moving through the area (thank goodness temps were warm enough so that it wasn’t more snow).

Your weather forecast for this week: rain has already dissipated across the region. Thursday starts out as a mostly sunny day, and highs should top out in the low-mid 40s, slightly above average in the city. Clouds will build throughout the day as a frontal system approaches from the west. Overnight Thursday, chances of precipitation increase along with the passage of a warm front.

Friday, temps continue to increase to the mid 50s ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect a mostly cloudy day, with showers and the potential for a line of stronger thunderstorms accompanying the frontal boundary passing in the afternoon.

Things dry out this weekend, with temps falling back to the mid 40s Saturday and Sunday. Another reinforcing cold front passes through Sunday, dipping high temps in the beginning of next week into mid 30s, below the average of around 40. No major storms on the horizon past Friday!

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Nor’easter Update – 7PM Feb 13, 2014

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We’ve enjoyed a period of relative calm as the dry slot (orange outlined in purple below) mentioned earlier pushed in over the area, leading to a lull in heavy precipitation and more of misty drizzle. However, these conditions will not last as the nor’easter will gain strength overnight.

The mid-upper level low that is responsible for bringing in this dry slot will gradually move over the surface low pressure center currently located offshore of central NJ. Once the low pressure systems stack up, the surface low will rapidly deepen. As this occurs, the warm front extending from the nor’easter’s core will rotate to the NW of the storm center.

This frontal boundary will push moist air (greens and yellows in this image below) ahead of it, leading to the formation of a new heavy band of snow – technically a “frontogenetically induced deformation band”. Within this band, snowfall rates may hit 1-2″ per hour, and an additional 4-8″ could accumulate across the region (except eastern Long Island). Interior areas where temps have remained cold could see an additional 8-12″ overnight.
Screen shot 2014-02-13 at 7.03You can already see in the radar image below that precipitation is already filling back in across southern NJ and the WAS-BAL-PHL corridor.

Screen shot 2014-02-13 at 7.03.52 PM