Tag Archives: warm front

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 27, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , ,

Thunderstorms roll through later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The cold front bringing these storms stalls out before finally pushing through Sunday. A welcome break from this muggy weather follows, with dew points finally dropping out of the upper-60s into more comfortable ranges. The break is short lived, as the cold front will return mid-week next week as a warm front, bringing another round of warm and humid weather with chances for rain.

Rest of today – hot and humid today with high temperatures approaching 90°F and plenty of moisture still lingering. Late in the day, clouds will increase as a cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough. Atmospheric dynamics favor some possibility for storms to develop damaging wind gusts. There will be modest instability with little convective inhibition by later in the day with plenty of solar heating and humidity in place. Wind shear, though weak in the lower layers of the atmosphere, increases substantially aloft, and so storms do have a chance to become strong. Any storm could bring about heavy rain and isolated minor flash flooding. The best timing of the onset of the rain appears to be between 7-9PM as of recent High Resolution Rapid Refresh model runs. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western part of the region (including parts of NYC) under a slight risk of severe weather. By the time the storms hit the city, given the current timing, they should be weakening due to day time heating ceasing.

Saturday – only slightly cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Still quite muggy. Spot showers are possible due to the cold front lingering in the area.

Sunday – finally, we get a refreshing day off from the humidity with dew points dropping into the low-60s and high temperatures in the mid-80s with lots of sun. The cold front finally pushes through with high pressure behind it bringing cooler, drier Canadian air our way.

Monday – should be another comfortable day with high temperatures in the mid-80s and relatively less humid conditions.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , , ,

This week starts off with a string of pleasant, dry conditions with Canadian high pressure in control. Temperatures will be a bit below normal due to the cool influence of this continental Canadian air mass. We get a chance for some rain mid-week, then temperature start warming up. Looking ahead, we could be seeing an extended period of 90°F+ temperatures starting the end of this week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, high temperatures around 80°F.

Tuesday – another great day with high temperatures just about 80°F and lots of sun.

Wednesday – increasing clouds as the next storm system approaches the region. High temperatures again about 80°F.

Thursday – overnight into Thursday, rain chances start to pick up as a warm front approaches the area from the southwest. This will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms, which will continue into Thursday. High temperatures will remain around the 80°F.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 22, 2018

NYC, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , ,

We got to enjoy one weekend last week where it didn’t rain at all. Unfortunately that won’t be the case this week with a storm passing through tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool with the influence of an onshore easterly wind before the passage of a warm front that will bring the chance for rain and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s.

Saturday – cloudy, with chances for rain and thunderstorms especially later in the day. The best chances for thunderstorms come with elevated convection late in the day and going into the overnight hours as a warm front approaches from the south. Temperatures will be cool in the mid-70s again.

Sunday – improving conditions with warmer temperatures in the warm sector after the passage of the warm front. Highs should reach into the mid-80s, possibly higher depending how much sun we get.

Monday – Canadian high pressure returns in the wake of this weekend’s storm and gives us sunny weather with mild temperatures in the low-80s.

NYC Weather – Jun 12, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , , , , ,

A mostly dry, and pleasant week is in store for us. We will see a steady warming trend, with the only real chance for wet weather happening Wednesday accompanying the passage of a warm front and cold front. Great weather lasts right into the weekend.

Rest of today – cool and sunny with high temperatures below normal in the low-70s due to the influence of easterly onshore winds.

Wednesday – a warm front will approach from the southwest. Ahead of that frontal boundary, we could see chances for mainly stratiform showery rain during the late morning hours. Behind this warm front, expect a humid feeling high in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies until the arrival of the trailing cold front. This second frontal boundary has a better chance to fire off a few thunderstorms, which could be locally strong, late in the evening and into the overnight hours.

Thursday – high pressure returns and gives us a nice sunny day of high temperatures in the low-80s with westerly winds bringing in warmer air from the interior.

Friday – slightly cooler in the upper-70s to around 80ºF but lots of sun again with high pressure staying in control but shifting east.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 1, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , ,

This weekend’s weather will feel gloomy and feature multiple chances for rain. The influence of the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will influence the air mass, making it feel very humid, and allowing for the potential for heavy rain. Going into next week, mixed signals from major forecast models hint at the possibility for a coastal storm.

Rest of today – an early round of rain and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a warm front should give way to a relatively rain-free day. Fog should begin to dissipate as the rain passes through. Temperatures will be mild, in the low-80s with overcast conditions, with a muggy feel due to the influence of a tropical air mass (thanks Alberto!). Late in the day and into the overnight hours, a cold front will approach that could spark a few more storms.

Saturday – the cold front that approaches from the northwest overnight will slow down as it nears us and stall out in our vicinity. An impulse of upper-level energy will move through and likely spawn a low pressure center in the area. This will lead to better chances for rain than today. Temperatures will be around 80°F again with overcast skies.

Sunday – this will be the best day of the weekend as Canadian high pressure attempts to build in. This should yield dry conditions, though there will probably still be plenty of clouds around. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs around 70°F in this Canadian air mass.

Monday – there are mixed signals in forecast models that suggest the possibility of a coastal storm developing early next week. At this point it appears we’ll have a wet start to the week with cool temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy skies, as well as more rain.

NYC Weather Update – May 28, 2018

NYC, Rain, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, , , , , , , , ,

This week will see mostly average temperatures, with the exception of a very warm day tomorrow. Later on in the week, remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will have an impact on our sensible weather, bringing on an extended period of unsettled weather that carries into next weekend.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-70s with decreasing clouds. If clouds break up sooner in the afternoon, we could see warmer temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a warm front will move through overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures will be significantly warmer with mostly sunny skies behind the frontal boundary, with high temperatures close to 90°F in the city away from south-facing shores.

Wednesday – mostly sunny still, with high temperatures falling back to normal levels in the mid-70s as a backdoor cold front moves through. This will cause a shift in winds to the east, bringing cooler, marine air onshore.

Thursday – increasing clouds with chances for rain late in the day, high temperatures holding in the mid-70s.

NYC Weather Update – May 21, 2018

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, , , , , , , ,

We start this week off with above average warmth, which will only be punctuated by one day of cooler, wetter weather tomorrow. High pressure returns from Wednesday through the end of the week, bringing us more sunny weather, as well as temperatures gradually increasing to the low-80s by the end of the week. Looking ahead towards Memorial Day weekend, Saturday looks to be the best day, with some rain chances Sunday and Monday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a weak disturbance will move through the area along with a warm front. This will yield rain chances later in the day, with the potential for heavy downpours in stronger storms that develop. With cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be significantly cooler, in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – behind this warm frontal passage Tuesday, temperatures should rebound into the upper-70s on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – a cold front will push through going into Thursday but high pressure will build quickly and this is anticipated to be a dry frontal passage. Temperatures should remain decently mild with highs in the low-70s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 18, 2018

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , ,

The gray, gloomy, and wet weather trend that’s been semi-persistent for much of the last week continues into the weekend. Unfortunately, rain chances will exist both Saturday and Sunday. Cool temperatures to start the weekend will give way to warmer air. Things finally dry out going into the start of next week.

Rest of today – cloudy and cool with temperatures in the mid-60s. Slight chance for showers, though a strong area of high pressure well to our north in Quebec should help hold the line against rain associated with a stationary front draped west-east across Virginia and the Delmarva. Rain chances increase later into the overnight hours as this area of high pressure starts to lift to the northeast.

Saturday – the aforementioned stationary front will start to lift north as a warm front during the day Saturday. Ahead of this warm front, elevated instability could spark a few thunderstorms late in the day with an assist from vorticity maxima moving through in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures will be cool, with clouds and rain showers throughout the day, maxing out in the low-60s. These temperatures will actually rise overnight once the warm front pushes through and allows for much warmer air to surge northward.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures around 80°F, mostly cloudy with chances for showers and a thunderstorm particularly in the afternoon with the passage of cold front.

Monday – weather finally begins to dry up behind this cold front. High pressure will build once again and should give us a nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 11, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , ,

This Mother’s Day weekend will unfortunately feature mostly unsettled and cool weather, though no day will be a complete washout. A frontal boundary will just linger in our vicinity during this period, moving north as a warm front, then retreating south as a cold front. This will allow multiple subtle upper level disturbances to move along this boundary, and each of these will bring a chance for rain.

Rest of today – splendid day with sunny skies and just about average high temperatures around 70ºF.

Saturday – chance for rain early between 7-11AM, then a period of mostly cloudy skies until another round of showers with some thunderstorms rolls through in the evening between 8-10PM. Cooler with high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – chance for showers in the morning, with steadier rain possible through early afternoon. Cool, with northeasterly onshore winds, and high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain chances should diminish later in the day.

Monday – drying out with temperatures in the low-70s and partly sunny skies.

Possible Tropical Storm Impacting the US During Memorial Day?

Consecutive runs of the GFS forecast model continue to suggest that a subtropical/tropical storm could develop in the western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua in the next 10 days or so. It’s far too early to be certain of this, but the trend is worth noting. Recent runs suggest that this storm could make landfall on Florida and then travel up the east coast.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 27, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , ,

A wet end to the week will lead to a better first half of the weekend. Showers could occur again on Sunday, but we’ll once again dry out to start next week. A big shift in weather patterns will take place next week with a dramatically warmer air mass to move into the region. Summer-like temperatures in the low-80s by late next week will be a possibility.

Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-50s and rain. Rain beginning this morning, but tapering off in NYC by late afternoon around 4PM, just before the evening rush. Given the set up of winds from the south flowing over a warm front pushing though, some elevated thunderstorms are possible today.

Saturday – nice day on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures into upper-60s. Clouds increase late with the chance of scattered showers increasing overnight as a cold front passes through.

Sunday – lingering rain chance early, with conditions improving later and clouds diminishing. Cooler with highs in the upper-50s in the wake of the cold front above.