You can feel that cold front has passed, can’t you? A stiff northwest wind is ushering in an unseasonably cool air mass, and temperatures will be quite a bit lower than yesterday, with high temps about 10 degrees less than yesterday in the mid-upper 50s. Cloud cover should continue to diminish throughout the day.
Windy and cool weather persists Thursday – with high temperatures again struggling to hit 60. The breezy conditions and very dry air mass in place will lead to conditions conducive to the spread of wildfires.
GFS model’s output for Friday
Our next shot of rain comes Friday, with a weak low pressure system moving over the Great Lakes and a trailing cold front. Forecast models suggest the system weakens as it approaches, hence lowering the chances for rain. If it rains, only light, showery precipitation is expected. High temperatures Friday will be slightly warmer, in the low 60s.
Saturday & Sunday – So far, we have a nice weekend on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures slightly below average in the low-mid 60s both Saturday and Sunday.
We’re going to have a splendid weekend weather-wise in the NYC region. There will be some rain later this evening and into the overnight hours, but things should dry up before sunrise Saturday. High temperatures today will be comfortable in the mid to upper 60s, with western portions of the region possibly topping 70. The south wind will tend to keep inland areas warmer than coastal portions where the wind will be bringing in colder air off the Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are still only in the 40s.
Projected radar reflectivity for about 8PM EST, when we can expect the bulk of the rain for Friday night.
Once the rain lifts out, Saturday is shaping up to be a gorgeous day, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s in NYC. Inland areas again will see even higher temperatures with highs near or above 70, while eastern portions of Long Island will see temperatures in the lower 60s due to the continuing cooling influence of southerly winds off the ocean.
Southerly winds will continue to usher in increasingly warm and moist air Sunday with high temperatures in the low 70s inland and in western portions of the region, mid-upper 60s in NYC, and cooler temperatures in the east and coastal CT.
Monday will be the warmest day of the stretch, with highs easily topping 70 area-wide, again with the exception of coastal waters in eastern Long Island and CT. Dense fog may develop overnight Sunday due to the increasingly saturated air mass moving into the area.
Tuesday will be a messy day with a strong cold front moving in from our west. Temperatures will be significantly cooler, with highs probably only in the mid-50s. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a significant rainfall event. This sharply tilted cold front is associated with a strong low-level jet streak, which will help usher in very moist air from the Gulf.
Note the extremely meridional (north-south) orientation of air flow on Tuesday, indicating a strong frontal boundaryCheck out the swath of forecast total of 2.5″+ of rainfall Monday-Tuesday in our area!
After Tuesday, get ready for a serious cooldown, as temperatures behind this strong cold front will only be in the mid-upper 40s!
After a quiet weather weekend, the NYC area will be experiencing a mid-week storm.
Tuesday – a mild day with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-upper 50s across the area ahead of the frontal system that will impact the region on Wednesday. The cold front will be draping west-east and positioned through Pennsylvania, allowing a westerly flow of warm air into the area.
Wednesday – the surface low pressure responsible for the mid-week storm will be over the central Ohio valley. Precipitation will extend eastward from the low pressure center along the frontal boundary referenced above. The center of the storm is forecast to pass right over the NYC region. Coastal areas should see all rain from this storm with a warming onshore flow developing (east winds). Areas in the interior could see a mix of rain/snow and possibly freezing rain. Heavy rain could develop during the afternoon hours.
Thursday – the low pressure center will strengthen as it passes over NYC and eventually pushes offshore. Cold air will wrap around the low pressure center and winds will shift to the north and northwest. There’s a possibility that the city could see a transition from rain to snow during this period of cooling temps. Temps on Thursday will struggle to only reach the low 30s.
Friday – high pressure will build in briefly Friday allowing a return to mostly clear conditions and warmer temps in the low 40s before the next storm system moves in with a clipper type system moving in from Canada. Dry conditions should lower chances for precipitation on Saturday.
Below: NAVGEM forecast map for 7PM EST Wednesday night. Notice an area of surface low pressure forming off the coast of Southeast NJ.
NYC weekend weather: A coastal system moves well south of our area, bringing the first chance of light snow to the area late Sat. Another weak system moves in Sun-Mon and could again bring light snow showers from time to time. Nothing too terrible, if there are accumulating snows, it will be less than 3″. Hi temps around 30.
The beginning of next week sees a very cold airmass move in over the area. High pressure from Canada will bring clear skies, combined with snow on the ground, this will lead to chilly temps with lows in the teens in NYC and single digits N & W. Daytime temps will also only top out in the upper 20s.
Next chance for significant weather occurs Wed-Thu timeframe, as forecast models point to a low pressure system forming in the Gulf States, then tracking NE near our area. As is always the case this far out, it’s hard to predict the intensity and whether this will be a snow or rain event.
