Temperatures this weekend will be largely around normal levels for this time of year, with the exception of Saturday. Warm advection will precede the passage of cold front. This frontal boundary does not look like it will have much moisture to work with. Travel conditions are expected to be trouble-free for those returning from the Thanksgiving break.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures around 50°F. Light winds shifting from west to south.
Saturday – temperatures warming into the upper-50s as a result of continuing warm winds from the southwest. Increasing clouds with the approach of a cold front. The best chance for precipitation with this front will be late in the day or in the overnight hours. Limited moisture will mean that this is not a washout.
Sunday – behind the cold front, winds once again shift back to the northwest, resulting in cooler temperatures in the 50°F. Sunny and breezy otherwise.
Monday – on the cool side again with high temperatures in the upper-40s and mostly sunny skies.
The weather looks to cooperate most of Thanksgiving week, aside from Tuesday night into Wednesday with a chance of rain as a cold front passes through. Travel impacts should be minimal. Thanksgiving Day itself should be pleasant, though on the cool side with below average temperatures.
Rest of today – earlier this morning, some areas in and around the city got the first few snowflakes of the season. There won’t be any more flurries today, but temperatures will be below normal with a stiff wind blowing from the west at 20 mph and gusts in the 30 mph range. Highs will probably only reach into the upper-40s as a result, even though we do anticipate skies clearing up in the afternoon.
Tuesday – winds turn to the southwest overnight into Tuesday as a high pressure center south of us today moves east, bringing us a shot of warm advection, and much warmer temperatures. Warmer than average highs in the upper-50s to near 60°F are forecast with sunny skies.
Wednesday – overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances increase as a cold front approaches the region. Rain showers may continue impacting the area into the AM rush. Once the cold front pushes through, winds shift back to the west and northwest, with gradual clearing conditions. High temperatures should be in the low-50s.
Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) – the passage of the cold front on Wednesday sets the stage for much cooler temperatures for the Thanksgiving Day Parade. Cold advection will bring temperatures into the mid-30s overnight, and temperatures at the start of the parade will probably only be in the upper-30s. Fortunately, there should be no other adverse weather impacts on this annual festivity. High temperatures should top out in the low-mid 40s with mostly sunny skies.
A cool Friday and Friday night yields to a rainy, though milder weekend. A return to largely below normal temperatures to start the week. Looking ahead into next week, weather conditions should be fair and without disruptions for the busy travel days around Thanksgiving.
Rest of today – sunny, cool and windy with high temperatures in the upper-40s. Northwest winds 15-20 mph with higher gusts though diminishing as the day progresses.
Saturday – increasing clouds as a warm front attached to a low pressure center over the Great Lakes approaches the area. Increasing clouds as winds shift to a warmer and wetter southerly direction. Chances for rain increasing through the day, with mostly cloudy skies otherwise and high temperatures in the upper-50s.
Sunday – rain chances are highest overnight from Saturday into Sunday. Low temperatures should be on the warm side near 50°F. Rain continues into Sunday morning prior to the passage of the cold front pictured above. Once that cold front pushes through, clouds should gradually break. High temperatures are anticipated to reach in the mid-50s again. However, on the back side of the cold front, we’ll see fairly strong winds returning from the northwest with a large pressure gradient. This will lead to temperatures dropping back into the 40s by the evening.
Monday – sunny skies but much cooler again with high temperatures in the mid-40s.
Get ready for record-breaking cold and a blast of deep winter tonight. The cold spell slowly abates over the course of the weekend, but even by Monday, high temperatures are still anticipated to be below normal for this time of year. There is a chance for precipitation on Sunday night with the passage of a weak disturbance.
Rest of today – we’ve already reached today’s daytime high of about 40°F and temperatures will be falling throughout the rest of the day. An arctic front is passing over us now, in its wake, strong cold advection (transport) is ongoing as a continental polar airmass from northern Canada dives down into the area. A high pressure center over Minnesota is also creating a fairly strong pressure gradient with a low pressure system in central Quebec. This will result in breezy conditions with winds from the northwest at around 25 mph and gusts over 40 mph. Wind chill values will fall from the 30s into the 20s.
Strong cold advection is ongoing behind the arctic front. Temperatures are dropping by as much as 2.5-3°F per hour in the Northeast.
Saturday (Veterans Day) – overnight lows going into Saturday are forecast to plummet to record-breaking levels in the low-20s. The high pressure pictured above will be moving closer to us, decreasing the pressure gradient and reducing the winds here. Temperatures should top out around 40°F with lots of sun. It will be a chilly, but sunny day for the Veterans Day Parade.
Sunday – temperatures continue to warm into the upper-40 with increasing clouds.
Monday – some uncertainty exists about the possibility of precipitation overnight into Monday. High temperatures will finally be approaching normal for this time of year with highs in the low-50s and mostly cloudy skies.
After a brief warm spell, we are looking at a full week ahead of average to below average temperatures. A distinct fall feel has come just as we ended Daylight Saving Time. The best chances for rain are at the beginning of the week.
Rest of today – high temperatures into the mid-60s ahead of an advancing cold front. This cold front will carry with it the chance for some showers later today. Mostly cloudy otherwise.
Tuesday – once the cold front passes us, winds will turn rather quickly northwest, bringing much cooler air into the region. High temperatures will likely be in the low-50s with partly sunny skies.
Wednesday – this frontal boundary from early in the week will stall out south of us. This will allow multiple shortwaves to ride up the frontal boundary, giving us a slight chance of rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. High temperatures will again be on the cool side, only in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies.
Thrusday – a tad bit warmer, with a mix of clouds and sun and high temperatures in the mid-50s.
The weekend starts with beautiful, sunny, fall weather. We see a slight warm up but this will be accompanied with rounds of rain beginning overnight Sunday going into Monday. Temperatures return to normal levels to start the week.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-60s.
Saturday – sunny and slightly warmer with temperatures in the upper-70s. Robust southerly flow ahead of an advancing cold front associated with a weakening low pressure system will push warmer, and more moist air over the region.
Sunday – this southerly winds will set the stage for a wet and windy Sunday. As the cold front nears and lift is maximized, we could even get a shot at some thunderstorms. Winds should be in the 15-20 mph range with stronger gusts over 30 mph. Temperatures will remain in the upper-60s. We could pick up between 1-2 inches of rain.
Monday – a tropical system currently offshore of Nicaragua will likely get picked up by this long cold front mentioned above. As it moves north along the frontal boundary, it will provide a reinforcing shot of energy to the dissipating low. Rain could still be ongoing at the outset of the day as a result, though it should taper off fairly quickly as this storm system moves off east. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with winds shifting to the north behind this storm system. Highs only in the upper-50s.
This weekend brings a mixed bag of weather, with some chances for rain, but warm temperatures as well. A stark contrast in temperatures marks the beginning of next week with some of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen up to this point in the season.
Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with seasonable highs in the mid-60s
Saturday – an inverted trough attached to a low pressure center well south of us rotates into the area and looks to remain stationary during the day. This could bring some scattered showers, however, this trough isn’t particularly strong and a washout isn’t anticipated. In fact, some sun could break through later in the day which could send temperatures higher than the forecast range in the mid-70s.
Sunday – temperatures continue pushing well above normal into the upper-70s and near 80°F. Warm air will be flowing in advance of a cold front that will drape across the country.
Monday – that cold front brings a chance of rain overnight into Monday and also ushers in much cooler air. High temperatures drop back into the low-60s. Overnight into Tuesday we might be seeing low temperatures in the upper-40s!
After a span of several weeks with minimal rainfall, we’re running into a week that will be defined by two low pressure systems and unsettled, rainy weather. Temperature will finally cool off from the summer-like warmth we’ve recently enjoyed to more seasonable, fall temperatures.
Rest of today – cloudy, periods of rain, some heavy at times. High temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Breezy with winds 15-20 mph. Remnants of Nate are passing through the area today, bringing tropical moisture and rain along with a deepening pressure gradient and the windy conditions.
Tuesday – best day of the first half of this week, mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s in the wake of the storm system passing today.
Wednesday – a backdoor cold front pushes through overnight into Wednesday. Winds will shift to the easterly direction and onshore with high pressure to the north. The result will be much cooler temperatures in the upper-60s or just about 70°F, which is about normal for this time of year. There will also be a chance for rain and increasingly cloudy skies.
Thursday – similar feel to Wednesday with clouds, chances for rain, easterly winds, but cooler with temperatures in the mid-60s.
The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.
Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.
Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.
Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.
Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.
Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.
The unofficial end of summer does indeed bring us a last gasp of summery weather. A cold front passing through mid-week brings rain and signals a return to more fall-like conditions. Later in the week, we will see high temperatures 5°F below normal. Turning towards the tropics, the risk Irma poses to our region is diminishing, but it now appears Irma will be a threat to Florida.
Rest of today – clear, with ideal conditions for outdoor activities of all kinds. High temperatures in the low-80s.
Tuesday – highs in the low-mid 80s as warm air surges ahead of an advancing cold front. Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day. Some possibility for a spot shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Wednesday – thunderstorms are possible overnight Tuesday as the leading edge of the cold front advances through the area. More rain is expected to ride along the frontal boundary after it passes through, bringing periods of showers throughout the day. High temperatures will be much cooler in the mid-70s with the clouds and rain.
Thursday – mostly cloudy to start with a chance for lingering rain. High temperatures will be cool again in the low-70s.
Friday – mostly sunny skies, much improved conditions as high pressure takes hold. Cool, with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Hurricane Irma an Increasing Threat to Florida
Over the weekend, Irma has been fluctuating in strengthen as it has negotiated marginal conditions for strengthening (mostly the influence of some dry air at upper levels). The National Hurricane Center still forecasts Irma to attain Category 4 strength at some point later this week (130 mph sustained winds or higher) as it encounters more favorable conditions for strengthening, and maintain at least Category 3 strengthen (sustained winds > 115 mph) throughout the forecast period.
The track forecast for Irma has continuously shifted west and south over the weekend due to the influence of an area of high pressure over the Atlantic now, and a faster forecast for the passage of the cold front mentioned above. This frontal boundary lifting out of the East Coast at a faster rate than in prior forecasts would mean that it does not influence Irma to make a turn to the north-northwest and threaten the East Coast. This has two consequences: 1) The chance for Irma to make landfall up the East Coast is diminishing, 2) On the other hand, the risk to Florida is increasing.
This run of the GFS forecast model suggests Irma making landfall on South Florida as a powerful Category 3 hurricane in one week’s time.A “spaghetti” plot of multiple model runs of GEFS, one of the forecast models that forecasters are using to analyze Irma.
It is important to note that with a week to go before Irma nears the US mainland, there could still be room for changes to the track and intensity forecasts. The National Hurricane Center specifically cautions against drawing premature conclusions about the storm’s impact on the rest of the US, while singling out Florida as an area of concern. More updates to come as we continue to watch the development of what could be a very dangerous storm.
