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NYC Weather Update – Jan 10, 2017

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The latter half of this week will bring welcome relief from a period of below average temperatures. Temperatures will rise well into the 50s by the end of the week. Winter returns for the weekend as temperatures fall back to seasonal levels.

Rest of today – there are some light snow showers far west of the city. Some of this might make it to the city, with a chance for snow and wintry mix and a high around 40ºF.

Wednesday – overnight, temperatures barely drop, while a storm system moves through. A chance of wintery mix transitions to all rain by daybreak. Rain ends by the early morning hours and

Thursday – a second storm system moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, with high temperatures rising well into the mid-50s. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail.

Friday – more clouds than sun, with high temperatures dropping back a bit to about 50ºF.

 

NYC Nor’easter/Winter Storm Update – Jan 7, 2017

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Overnight, forecast models shifted the track of the ongoing Nor’easter further west. This has implications for snowfall totals across the region.

Snowfall Totals

These have been bumped up for the city, which is now expected to receive 2-5″. The potential exists for more. Winter storm warnings now extend as far west as Nassau County, with points further east receiving as much as 7-12″.

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As always with Nor’easters, even as they are ongoing, considerable uncertainty remains a factor. With these storms, one or more banding features will develop and circulate around the center of the storm as it progresses northeast. The number, extent, intensity, and western limit of advancement of these banding features ultimately determines what areas get the most snow. Within these bands, snowfall rates could easily reach 1-2″/hour. West of the western limit of the progression of these bands, snowfall totals will drop precipitously, such that a distance of 10 miles could mean the difference between 2″ and 6″+.

Timing

You can already see the radar signatures of two bands of moderate to heavy snow spawned by this storm. One of these bands is currently pushing its way west through Long Island, while another progresses towards shore. Within these bands, travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate while accumulations rack up.

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Looking ahead to this afternoon, it would appear that the heaviest snow will fall in the city around 2PM, or the early afternoon.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 6, 2017

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The big weather news for the first full weekend of the new year is the deep Arctic chill that will be gripping the area. We should narrowly miss the core what would have been the first substantial Nor’easter of the season Saturday. The chill lasts through the beginning of next week when temperatures rebound back to above normal levels.

Rest of today – cold, with a mix of clouds and sun and a high temperature in the mid-30s. Wind chills in the low-20s.

Saturday – an uncertain scenario unfolds with the Nor’easter mentioned above. The one thing that is certain is that temperatures will be plenty cold to support all snow with highs only in the upper-20s. Two of the main forecast models continue to show a sizable spread in terms of how far east this storm tracks. This will ultimately determine whether portions west of Eastern Long Island see anything more than than a couple inches of snow. The cutoff between heavier snow and a light coating looks to be quite sharp also.

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Sunday – overnight lows this weekend will be chilly, only in the upper-teens. Sunday, the wind picks up as the pressure gradient between the Nor’easter and high pressure building to the west increases. High temperatures will again only range in the upper-20s.

Monday – sunny, but still cold with a high temperature right around freezing.

 

Drought Update

Recent storms have brought beneficial rain and snow to the state and has helped alleviate some of the worst drought, while also staving off the redevelopment of drought in some areas. The cold temperatures have also been helpful in reducing evaporation from the soil. There’s almost no extreme drought left in the state, though most of Downstate remains in an area of severe drought.

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NYC Weather Update – Dec 19, 2016

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We leave behind wild temperature swings that occurred the last few days as high pressure maintains steady and sunny conditions for most of this week. High temperatures should run just a few degrees above average, with some chance for passing showers on Thursday.

Rest of today – cold with below average high temperatures in the low-30s.

Tuesday – slightly warmer, but still below average with high temperatures in the upper-30s.

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Wednesday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Thursday – a chance for showers as a weak storm system passes by, with a high again in the mid-40s and mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 15, 2016

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Apologies for the lack of updates recently. Winter weather has come in full force a few days ahead of the actual Winter Solstice. We’ll see possibly record-tying or record-breaking cold Friday in some parts of the area, our first measurable snowfall in the city this season, all while temperatures swing about 30ºF from now through Sunday. The medium term shows a continuance of average to below-average temperatures in the upper-30s and low-40s.

Rest of today – we had some passing snow showers this morning, and there will be another chance for snow showers this afternoon. The main story will be the wind, cold temperatures, and low wind chills. A wind advisory is in effect for today with a high wind warning in place for tonight. Sustained winds of 20-30mph are expected, with wind gusts between 40mph to as high as 60mph possible later. Combined with high temperatures only in the mid-20s, this will result in wind chills of between 0-10ºF in the city.

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Friday – slightly colder than today with highs in the mid-20s, with a very cold start to the morning as overnight lows drop into the teens. Winds will slowly abate through the course of the day as the high pressure center depicted above moves east over us, lessening the pressure gradient. Overnight Friday, a warm front approaches and brings the possibility for 1-2″ of snow.

Saturday – the snow will continue into the first half of Saturday with the possibility of 1-2″ additional inches of accumulation before temperatures warm and winds turn towards the southwest. There is some question as to whether some period of freezing rain will occur before a transition to all rain from south to north in the afternoon hours. High temperatures rebound nicely into the upper-40s in the wake of the warm front passing through.

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Sunday – a cold front will follow the passage of the warm front mentioned above, but that shouldn’t happen until late Sunday. Ahead of that cold front passing, temperatures will continue to warm into the low-mid 50s as rain continues to fall. That snow won’t stick around long!

NYC Thanksgiving Weather Update – Nov 22, 2016

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Winds finally abate after today. Temperatures rebound later this week, but remain below normal for the forecast period. There is a chance for rain on Thanksgiving Day, as well as Friday. Looking ahead into the first week of December, there could be a couple storms rolling our way.

Today – sunny, less windy, but still cold with temperatures again only in the low-40s. A good day for travel.

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) – cloudy, warmer with a high near 50°F. There is a chance for rain, but that the timing of the rain favors the afternoon after the parade ends. What rain there might be will be light. Winds also will be light, so those balloons at the Macy’s Day Parade should have no problems.

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Friday – rain chances persist, along with temperatures warming to near normal in the low-50s as warmer air flows in ahead of a cold front from the southwest.

Saturday – the frontal system affecting the area Thursday and Friday finally will clear the area. Showers may pop off early, but the skies should slowly clear as temperatures remain around normal in the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 14, 2016

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The beginning of the week will see much needed rain, and then transition to sunny and above average weather. Drought conditions have improved in New York State overall, though most of the improvement has been concentrated upstate.

Rest of today/overnight – rain begins to move in to the area overnight. Because of the very dry air that was in place to end the weekend, it will take some time before the moisture associated with a coastal low can saturate the air. It appears the most likely time for when heavier/steadier rains begin is around 4AM.

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Tuesday – rain, moderate to heavy at times in the morning. Northeast winds around the coastal low responsible for the rain will keep temperatures cooler than normal in the low-50s with cloudy skies. Rain chances diminish substantially in the afternoon.

Wednesday – a small chance for lingering drizzle on Wednesday as temperatures rebound back into the upper-50s. Clouds will be on the decrease.

Thursday – sunny, with a high near 60ºF. High pressure takes over to to end the week.

Drought Improves Upstate, Still Severe in and Around NYC.

Recent rains have improved the drought situation for many portions of upstate New York, and also some areas of the city and Long Island. However, as you can see from the image below, much of the area is still gripped by severe drought.

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NYC Weather Update – Nov 7, 2016

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The 2016 election will soon be behind us. Regardless of who wins, we’re in for a general cooling trend later this week. We have a shot at rain this Wednesday although chances are not too high.

Rest of today – seasonable, sunny, highs in the mid-50s.

Tuesday (Election Day) – warmer, with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s. The start of the day will be chilly though, due to clear and calm skies and excellent radiational cooling overnight. If you’re lining up early to vote, expect temperatures in the mid-40s.

Milder air will get swept up around the high pressure center over TN/NC ahead of the advancing cold front
Milder air will get swept up around the high pressure center over TN/NC ahead of the advancing cold front

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with a chance of showers increasing during the day. Not expecting anything by way of heavy rain. High temperatures around 60ºF.

Thursday – skies clearing to mostly sunny with high temperatures in the seasonable upper-50s.

 

NYC Marathon Weekend Weather – Nov 4, 2016

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This weekend’s weather offers a significant contrast from last weekend, when we received a couple rounds of substantial rainfall. This is good news for the many thousands of runners and fans of the TCS New York City Marathon. High pressure is in firm control of the weather for almost the entire Eastern US. One additional reminder that Sunday morning marks the end of Daylight Savings Time, so remember to set you clocks back an hour and enjoy an extra hour of sleep.

Rest of today – sunny, with some wind gusts in the 20mph range, but otherwise pleasant with high temperatures around 60ºF.

Saturday – sunny again, though a little bit cooler with high temperatures in the upper-50s.

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Sunday – temperatures at the start time for the marathon should range in the upper-40s. High temperatures should max out around the mid-50s, so during most of the race, expect temperatures in the low-50s. There will be a modest north wind, between 10-15mph.

Monday – another crisp, dry, sunny fall day on tap with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

 

NYC Weather Update – Oct 31, 2016

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There’s nothing scary with our weather this week in New York City. We’re looking at a cool start to the week, followed by a gradual warmup with a chance at rain towards the later part of this week. We received a couple rounds of drenching rains last week and yesterday, which will help the drought conditions somewhat, but it’s still not nearly enough to make up the deficit we’ve had this year.

Rest of today – clear, with a high in the low-50s after the passage of the cold front that brought us heavy rain yesterday. Trick or treating weather conditions should be just fine, though a bit on the cool side with lows dropping into upper-30s and around 40ºF tonight.

Tuesday – milder, sunny, with a high of around 60ºF in the city.

Wednesday – a warm front will push through early Wednesday. This will open the door to warmer air flowing around a high pressure center over the Southeast and an advancing cold front from the west. Temperatures will rise into the mid-60s with increasing clouds.

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Thursday – even warmer still before this cold front above actually hits us. High temperatures expected to be in the upper-60s to near 70ºF. Some chances for showers later in the day into the overnight hours.

Drought Likely to Persist

Despite having received several inches of rain over the last couple of weeks, the seasonal outlook for our area continues to point to persistent moderate to severe drought. We hope to see some good snowfall like last winter that could bust the drought later on.

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