Tag Archives: weather

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 26, 2016

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We ended this past week of refreshing, more seasonably warm weather with a hot and humid day today. This weekend, temperatures will cool off again into about normal ranges. No significant precipitation chances are forecast for the next few days. I will be on vacation next week, so no updates for a little while unless urgent comes up.

Rest of today – comfortable with highs dropping through the 80s into the mid-70s overnight.

Saturday – high pressure takes over and delivers a sunny day with temperatures in the upper-80s.

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Sunday – a tad cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s and sunny.

Monday – the only day with a chance for rain, otherwise mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.

Tuesday – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.

Drought Worsens Upstate, Some Improvement Elsewhere

Despite getting some decent rains over the last few weeks, New York State remains gripped by drought, with a severe drought no impacting upstate regions along the Erie Canal corridor.

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NYC Weather Update – Aug 22, 2016

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The weather headline this week will be spotless summer weather, with no rain in the forecast for the next week or so. Temperatures will start off on the refreshing side in the low-80s and gradually warm up, but not into excessive warmth. Also with relatively low humidity, it will feel quite comfortable.

Rest of today – breezy with northwest winds in the 20-25mph range. This northwest flow is typical after the passage of a cold front, which occurred yesterday. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs only expected to be around 80ºF and mostly sunny skies.

Tuesday – much less windy, with sunny skies and a high around 80ºF. The main driver for our weather this week will be a strong high pressure center, which will be parked pretty much right over us. This will prevent any warm, humid air from the south from entering into the area – the opposite effect of a Bermuda high.

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Wednesday – warmer, with high temperatures around 85ºF and sunny skies.

Thursday – essentially the same as Wednesday, high around 85ºF and sunny.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 18, 2016

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The end of this week and this weekend will see a gradual transition away from the long-lasting heat and humidity that has gripped the area over the last couple of weeks. There will be some chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with more significant chances for rain Sunday night and going into Monday.

Rest of today – clouds are expected to clear somewhat, allowing high temperatures to reach into the mid-80s. Some slight chance for showers and thunderstorms exists this afternoon.

Friday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, and again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday – pretty much the same as Friday, high temperatures in the upper-80s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday – starts out decently enough, but clouds will increase, temperatures will probably end up in the mid-80s. A complex set up of multiple frontal boundaries will be moving in/setting up over the area later Sunday into the overnight hours. The exact timing of the arrival of more significant rains is still not very certain.

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Monday – depending on the timing of the frontal boundaries above, we could see a mostly dry day Monday, with temperatures in the normal range, right around 85ºF.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Aug 15, 2016

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The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.

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Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.

Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.

Drought Conditions Improving?

The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.

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Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 11, 2016

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The second half of this week and this weekend will feel as though we’re living in a tropical monsoon climate zone, given the extended period of unsettled weather that we’ll be experiencing. Nearly every day over the course of the next 5-7 days, we’ll see a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing torrential rainfall, along with a very warm and humid airmass staying in place.

Rest of today – periods of clouds and sun, likely becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the first batch appearing to arrive around lunch. High temperatures will be around 90ºF but with the very humid air, heat indexes will be well into the upper-90s. This is the reason for there being a Heat Advisory in place until Saturday evening.

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Friday – similar set up to today, periods of sun mixed in with mostly cloudy spans as well. Highs will again be around 90ºF, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The exact timing, placement, and intensity of the storms for Friday and this entire forecast period will be difficult to forecast with accuracy ahead of time.

This is due to the fact that many of the storms will be driven by subtle perturbations in the atmosphere moving around the periphery of a Bermuda High, and differential day time heating – hence why the chance for showers and thunderstorms is greatest in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze convergence boundaries are likely to serve as triggers for these storms. This Bermuda High is what has been and will be responsible for maintaining the oppressively hot and humid conditions. The tropical airmass it brings will mean that any storms that form will have the potential to tap into tropical moisture and produce very heavy rain that could lead to localized flash flooding.

Saturday – will be by far the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures forecast to reach into the mid-upper 90s. Heat indexes will be in the upper-90s to low-100s in some parts, likely triggering Excessive Heat Warnings. Once again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon hours.

Sunday – a cold front will approach the region on Sunday, which will lead to a more consistent and higher chance for organized thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will remain hot, in the low-90s.

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Monday – low confidence for the forecast through Monday, as the timing of the cold front passage is uncertain. It may linger, which would result in yet more chances for rain. High temperatures should cool off to below 90ºF in the upper-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 8, 2016

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The weekend gave us a mixed bag of weather, with some rain but mostly warm and humid weather. Humidity starts off at a comfortable level this week, but picks up towards mid-week when get a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures during this period will be above average by about 5ºF, though it will not be nearly as hot as a couple weeks ago.

Rest of today – more clouds than sun for the next few hours, but we’re still expected to hit highs in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 80s.

Wednesday – increased humidity, mostly cloudy with a high in the mid-80s. We will be squeezed between an incoming cold front and a high pressure center in the Atlantic, which will result in a mostly southerly flow of warmer, humid air into the region.

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Thursday – warmer, with highs around 90ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2016

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We finally get a break from the heat along with some much needed rain in the next few days. Saturday looks to be the best day of the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will range anywhere between 15-20ºF cooler than last weekend. 

Overnight – lows in the mid-70s as a low pressure center passes almost directly over NYC. Because the low will be right over us, the main area of the heaviest rain will remain north of the city.

Friday – showers punctuated by periods of steady, heavier rain as bands of rain develop and wrap around the low pressure center as it tracks east. High temperatures in the low-80s with overcast skies. This low pressure system will thrive off the humid, tropical airmass in place over the region. A flash flood watch has been issued to reflect the possibility of some areas receiving 1-2″/hour rains. Embedded thunderstorms are possible, but are unlikely to reach severe limits. The bulk of the rain will fall overnight into the morning hours, and should begin tapering off in the afternoon from west to east. 

Screen Shot 2016-07-28 at 6.53.30 PM fill_94qwbgSaturday – high pressure passes briefly giving us a mostly dry day with partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday – another disturbance pushes through from the south providing more chances for rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s otherwise.

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Monday – skies gradually clear and temperatures warm back into the low-mid 80s.

Tuesday – warm and sunny with highs again in the mid-80s

Drought Conditions Forecast to Persist

Despite the rains this weekend, many parts of the area remain under a moderate drought, having received only about 25% of normal precipitation for this past month. The outlook for the season calls for persistence of drought conditions as below normal to normal precipitation will be insufficient to break the drought.

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NYC Weather Update – Jul 25, 2016

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Recent weather headlines have been dominated by the heat. This will continue through most of the week, with relief not really in sight until Friday. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms today, but otherwise, there will be little in the way of rain.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Humidity will make it feel like the lower-100s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today. This relates to what appear to be multiple line segments of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing ahead of a weak cold front that look to impact the area during the PM rush.

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Tuesday – with the weak cold front above passing through, there will be some drop in humidity. However, temperatures are still expected to rise into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – temperatures finally start to back off the mid-90s into the low-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – increasing clouds, high near 90ºF.

Drought Continues to Grip the Northeast

Drought continues to worsen and is now prevalent in many parts of the Northeast, with areas in Western New York and Massachusetts particularly hard hit.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 21, 2016

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This weekend’s weather can be summed up in one word: hot. In fact, if current forecasts hold, this upcoming stretch may see our first extended 90ºF+ heat wave. High temperatures don’t appear likely to drop below 90ºF until next Wednesday. During that time, the humidity will actually increase until a cold front breaks through late Tuesday. This will be another prime beach/upstate getaway weekend.

Rest of today – sunny with a high around 90ºF.

Friday – mostly sunny, slightly warmer with a high in the low-90s. There is a chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Friday with the passage of a cold front. Any relief from heat that this front and storms associated with it bring will be short-lived.

Saturday – high pressure quickly returns and temperatures continue to rise along with it. Highs are expected in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

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Sunday – a bit cooler, but humidity will increase as a warm front pushes through late on Sunday. High temperatures in the low-90s.

Monday – showers and thunderstorms are possible later Monday preceding a cold front that is forecast to pass on Tuesday. Highs will remain in the low-90s.

Above Average Temperatures to Stick Around

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day temperature outlook continues to call for above normal temperatures. The heat is here to stay.

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NYC Weather Update – Jul 18, 2016

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This week will be bookended by hot weather, with a break from the heat forecast right in the middle. The only chance for rain during this stretch will be later this afternoon and into the early evening hours.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk of severe weather today as a cold front approaches. As usual, areas north and west of the city are more likely to experience organized convective activity, since there will be a stabilizing influence near the coast from the marine air layer. Best timing would appear to be in the evening rush, when a couple lines of thunderstorms could affect the area. High temperatures will reach into the low-mid 90s before this under mostly sunny skies.

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Tuesday – with the passage of the the cold front above, there will be a noticeable change in the humidity level for Tuesday. Despite high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, it will feel considerably more comfortable with the drier air in place.

Wednesday – an area of high pressure behind the cold front will take over for the latter portion of the week. On Wednesday, it will be set up just to our southwest, which will enable cooler winds from the north to bring a brief respite from the heat. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the low-mid 80s.

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Thursday – as the high pressure moves off to the east, winds will turn to the west and southwest, and there will be a corresponding increase in high temperatures into the mid-upper 80s again as warmer air returns.