A gloomy looking Friday will give way to a sunny though cool weekend. Next week starts off with near normal temperatures and dry conditions, but get ready for a blast of Arctic air later in the week with high temperatures falling into the mid-40s by the end of next week.
Saturday – cool but sunny to start. High temperatures will be in the low 50s. Clouds build in advance of a passing cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Sunday – a moisture starved cold front will approach from the west, and precipitation is not expected in NYC, though could see some spotty showers in interior regions. High temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-50s.
Monday – high temperatures again in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.
Tuesday – another good day weather-wise with highs in the mid-upper 50s and mostly sunny skies.
We will feel the effects of a strong cold front next Wednesday. A Canadian Arctic airmass will work its way into the region following this frontal passage, leading temperatures to plummet down into the 40s!
Friday and Sunday will be the sunny and pleasant bookends to what will be a stormy and rainy Saturday this weekend.
Today – we’re looking at sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 70s. Clouds will begin to build back in later in the evening as the storm maker for Saturday begins to move in from the west.
NAM high resolution model output for Saturday at 10AM EDTWeather Prediction Center forecast map for Saturday
Saturday – a negatively tilted frontal system will be moving over the area Saturday, with the worst of the rain coming between about 10AM-3PM. We will be in the vicinity of a triple point (junction between a cold, stationary, and occluded front, this feature is common with mature mid-latitude cyclonic systems) that will be draping south from a strengthening low pressure center that will be moving northeast into Ontario during this timeframe. A thunderstorm is not out of the question given the atmospheric dynamics. Temperatures should hover around the 70 degree mark despite the cloud cover and rain because of the potential for us to briefly enter a warm sector between the stationary front and cold front.
Sunday – we get a crisp blast of autumn air behind the frontal system passing through Saturday. Sunshine returns just in time for the annual BikeMS NYC, which yours truly will be participating in. Cool temperatures will be only in the mid-upper 60s.
Monday – good weather sticks around for the start of the work week with high temperatures around 70.
Our next chance for precipitation should come Tuesday-Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible for the rain Saturday is forecast to close off and retrograde (move west instead of east, with prevailing upper level winds) over central Canada. An impulse of energy will rotate around this center and lead to another cold front passing through our area.
It’s going to be a quiet weather week after the rain that passed yesterday. For the remainder of the week, high pressure will keep conditions fair and sunny, despite the passage of a weak cold front tomorrow. Temperatures today and Thursday should be in the mid-70s. There will be a slight cool-off Friday after the passage of that weak cold front, but things will warm back up this weekend.
Forecast for Sunday, 9/21
Saturday – high temperatures will be in the mid-70s, partly cloudy skies.
Sunday – a warm front will pass through early Sunday and allow for temperatures to climb to about 80. Clouds will increase as a trailing cold front approaches. No precipitation forecast at this point, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a couple light showers with this front.
Get ready for the official start of autumn! Monday marks the autumnal equinox, the point at which night and day are about equal in length. From here on out, our days will be getting shorter and shorter, so try and get out there to soak in some rays and get some vitamin D in you.
Although the passage of a cold front yesterday didn’t bring any precipitation with it, you can definitely feel its impact in the form of much cooler and drier air today. Temperatures will be in the low 70s today with crisp, clear skies above.
Saturday – cloud cover will build tonight as an area of low pressure originating from the Tennessee Valley area slides along the frontal boundary that’s now located offshore to our east. This low pressure system will bring a solid chance at rain tomorrow especially later in the day into the evening hours. High temperatures will be cool, around 70, under cloudy skies.
NAM high resolution model output for Saturday evening at 8PM
Sunday – luckily, this storm system will exit rather quickly to our east, making Sunday an excellent day for outdoor activity of all varieties. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs in the low 70s under partly cloudy skies.
Monday – this week begins a trend towards cooler, fall-like temperatures as an upper air pattern favoring the intrusion of a cool, Canadian airmass takes hold. Highs on Monday will again only be in the low-70s, about 5 degrees cooler than average for this time of the year.
Tuesday – brings us our next shot at rain, as a weak impulse of energy passes through. The rest of the week after Tuesday looks like it will be uneventful, albeit on the cool side with the aforementioned arrival of a Canadian airmass and high pressure.
GFS 500mb vorticity and height model output. Note the two areas of very strong vorticity and closed heights in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific corresponding to two tropical systems.
We’re still in the grips of a warm and humid airmass, despite some cooling off last night due to the passage of a weak cold front. This warm trend will not break until a stronger cold front passes through the region on Saturday.
Friday – expect high temperatures once again in the mid-upper 80s, albeit with increasing cloud cover as stratus cloud decks start to filter in ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
GFS model output for 2PM EDT Saturday
Saturday – unfortunately, the timing of the cold front above does mean it will bring adverse impacts to our weekend plans. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede and accompany this frontal passage, particularly later in the day Saturday into Saturday evening. High temperatures ahead of the front will remain warm in the mid-80s, somewhat cooler near the shore. There will be a noticeable cooling with this round of storms.
Sunday – Clouds will diminish through the course of the day Sunday as a much cooler regime works its way into the area. High temperatures will only be in the upper 70s for Sunday and the beginning of the weak.
Monday – Skies will be mostly clear, and temperatures will be much cooler in comparison to Labor Day, with highs only in the upper 70s (~10 degrees cooler than Labor Day). High pressure building over us will lead to an onshore wind flow, bringing in a cool, maritime polar airmass.
Rejoice! The long awaited Labor Day Weekend is upon us. Although I’d love to say that the weather will be fantastic throughout, but unfortunately there will be a few disturbances traversing the region the second half of this weekend. Thunderstorms accompanying these disturbances may literally rain on the annual West Indian Day Parade in Brooklyn on Monday.
Friday – the remainder of today will be a picture perfect, fall-like day with high temperatures hovering right around 80. A pleasant, dry airmass is in place in association with an area of high pressure that’s currently sitting over us.
Saturday – essentially a repeat of Friday, but with a bit more cloud cover.
Sunday – high temperatures on Sunday will be considerably warmer than Saturday, since the area of high pressure sitting over us now will have moved to the east, building up southwesterly winds and allowing for an influx warm air to penetrate the region. Expect more humid and warm highs between the mid-upper 80s. A weak frontal boundary will be approaching Sunday, and transit the region late Sunday into Monday. This will be our first shot at rain and thunderstorms, some of which may deliver some heavy rain.
Labor Day – the timing of the aforementioned frontal passage will be critical in terms of sensible weather Monday. It currently looks like Monday will be partly cloudy, with highs again in the mid-80s. There will be an increasing chance of scattered thunderstorms later in the day Monday leading into Tuesday as another weakening cold front nears the area.
Tuesday – the return to the work week will continue to feature warm and humid highs in the mid-upper 80s and a continued chance of thunderstorms as that cold front works its way through.
We had a solid round of rain from some showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area overnight. Over the weekend, high pressure will start to build into the area, ushering in a period of calm, pleasant, and seasonable weather.
Saturday & Sunday – clouds will diminish later Saturday, and by Sunday we’ll see mostly clear skies. Both days will feature high temperatures around 80.
Monday – as you see below, by Monday an area of high pressure will be firmly entrenched over our region. This high pressure area will persist through the middle of the week, giving us fair conditions and pleasant highs in the low 80s.
High pressure firmly entrenched in the Northeast for the beginning of next week.
Tuesday & Wednesday will look and feel essentially the same with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.
Our next chance of rain will be later in the week, perhaps Thursday into Friday with the arrival of a cold front from the west.
In the Tropics
There’s a tropical disturbance currently positioned offshore of Puerto Rico that will very likely become the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s third named storm, Cristobal. You can already begin to see the storm organizing, as over the last day or so, a circulation has become evident, and strong thunderstorms are forming in the northern semicircle are also apparent (see the classic cauliflower tops). Outflow bands are also forming up (thin wispy clouds north and northeast of the center).
High resolution satellite image of the tropical disturbance
This storm will fell some negative impacts from the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. As you can see, the southern semicircle is considerably less organized than the northern.
As for the track of the storm, you can see the rather large spread between the different forecast models, which is not surprising given that the storm is still in its early stages. Note that there is an outlier model solution showing landfall on the Mid-Atlantic. This is unlikely at this point, but worth noting. It seems, given the conditions ahead of the storm, that this will become Tropical Storm Cristobal in the next couple days, and may become Hurricane Cristobal shortly thereafter.
You may have heard from media reports that the dreaded polar vortex is set to make a return to the Eastern US during the middle of the coming week. I’ll discuss that in detail below. First, for the weekend forecast:
Today & Saturday – a very pleasant couple of days in the wake of the cold front that finally pushed through our area yesterday. You can feel a marked drop in humidity, and temperatures are much more comfortable. Saturday, high temperatures should top out in the mid 80s in NYC.
Sunday – a chance for afternoon thunderstorms and a high in the mid 80s, chance of rain increasing through out the day into the overnight hours.
Polar Vortex?
Forecast models are in good agreement that beginning Tuesday into most of the rest of next week, an upper air vortex (see below, the trough with an inclosed region surrounded by the blue arrows) will drop into the Midwest and Northeast from the northern regions of Canada. This vortex can be technically referred to as a polar vortex, a term that instantly revives media hype about how cold it will be. But keep in mind, during the summer, polar regions heat up as well, so even the coldest polar airmass and vortexes are much milder than their winter counterparts. Furthermore, the influence of the sun is quite strong as we just passed the summer solstice, so the sun is sitting at a very high angle each day and is highly effective at heating the air quickly. Hence, temperatures are expected to be much below normal for some areas, but we’re not talking about snow or ice.
Upper air forecast from GFS for Monday, 8PM EDT, 500mb absolute vorticity.
Next Week
There will be a good deal of energy traveling with the polar vortex, so we’re expecting a somewhat disturbed pattern of weather for the beginning of next week. Tuesday & Wednesday will see the best chances for rain and thunderstorms with a cold front approaching us from the west. Before the cold front, we’ll still see temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with a chance for thunderstorms Monday. Once the cold front passes, we’ll be right in the mix with the “polar” air mass, so our high temperatures will drop into the low 80s, and overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s for the latter part of the week.
A warm and humid day out there in the Tri-State this afternoon. You can feel it’s potential thunderstorm weather. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion (analysis of weather conditions conducive to severe weather on a medium scale – 10km-500km). Very moist air, warm temperatures, combined with a slowly approaching cold front set the stage this afternoon for possible development of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. This is especially the case over inland areas, as depicted below. In general, expect a line of showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms to pass through the area later this evening into the overnight areas when the cold front finally pushes through.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html
Thursday – there could be some lingering showers in the AM, but things will dry out quickly and clouds will slowly give way to sunnier skies. High temperatures will be a bit cooler than today, in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Friday – a splendid end to the work week with mostly sunny skies and comfortable, less humid conditions and temperatures in the low 80s.
Canadian high pressure will move slowly to our east, ushering in some warm air and calm skies
Saturday and Sunday will both again feature excellent weather as a high pressure system works its way over our region following this cold front. As the high pressure slowly slides to the southeast, it will bring us southerly winds that will usher in another period of warm and humid weather. Saturday will be the better day of the weekend with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and lower humidity. By Sunday, temperatures will begin ramping up into the mid-80s with an increase in humidity. Early next week, we’ll be looking at a continuing warming trend with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s Monday and near 90 Tuesday before our next chance of rain.
A lot of you may be going down to Governor’s Island this weekend to check out the Governor’s Ball this weekend, which promises to have spectacular weather for an outdoor music festival!
Today – winds from the north will diminish today as an area of high pressure builds in over NYC from the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be seasonable near 80 with mostly sunny skies. If you’re on Governor’s Island itself, you might experience slightly cooler temperatures due to breezes off the harbor.
Saturday – day two of a weekend of glorious weather, as temperatures continue to climb with the high pressure sits right over us. Expect clear skies with warm highs in the mid 80s. Excellent weather for a grill out or just any outdoor activity period.
Sunday – yep, you guessed it, yet another day of ridiculously nice weather, with highs in the low-mid 80s, and a mostly sunny sky.
Next chance for rain and thunderstorms comes Monday in advance of a complex frontal system.
NWS Weather Prediction Center’s forecast for Sunday
