Tag Archives: weekend

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 4, 2014

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A chilly start to the weekend as we have cold easterly winds off the ocean, and a deck of clouds overhead. Rain will pick up in coverage and intensity as the day goes on, and it promises to be more or less a washout tonight.

Cloud deck building over the area, bulk of the actual rain is still off to our west over Central PA
Cloud deck building over the area, bulk of the actual rain is still off to our west over Central PA

Fortunately, the frontal system responsible for the rain will clear out of the area by Saturday. Sunny conditions will prevail, with winds turning from the east to the west and picking up to 15-20mph by the afternoon. High temperatures should top out around the mid-upper 50s, right about average for this time of year. Clear skies overnight Saturday will allow for good radiational cooling, and low temperatures could dip into the mid-upper 30s across the region.

Sunday promises to be the best day of the weekend, with high pressure firmly in control over the region. Sunny skies should allow for a mild day with high temperatures approaching 60.

The next storm system moves into the area later Monday into Monday night, with another chance for rain. Temperatures Monday could top 60 again with warm air flowing ahead of an approaching cold front.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 3, 2014

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Get out there and enjoy the sunny, mild weather while if you can today. We caught a nice break and got enough sunshine today that we’ll probably top 60 in quite a few spots around NYC. Clouds will increase over the next couple hours. Conditions will steadily deteriorate as a surface low pressures system currently spawning some severe weather over the Plains states tracks northeast into our area. Screen Shot 2014-04-03 at 1.49.36 PMFriday – keep the umbrella handy as periods of showers are likely to occur throughout the day, with increasing coverage and intensity later on in the day into the overnight hours. An steady onshore breeze will usher in much cooler air off the ocean (sea surface temperatures offshore of the region are only in the upper 30s to low 40s). As a result, high temp will hover in the mid 40s.

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Saturday – the storm system bringing us rain Friday into Saturday will advance a warm front through the area, and we’ll see a rebound in temperatures and gradually clearing skies. High temps could again top 60.

Sunday – another pleasant and mild spring day as high pressure moves into the area. Mostly sunny skies with a high again near 60.

Monday – our next shot at rain will come Monday-Tuesday of next week, with a storm system forecast to develop in the Gulf. This storm will track northeast through the Ohio valley into the Great Lakes, and a trailing cold front will bring us some steady rain. High temperatures Monday will be around 60 with warmer air flowing from the southwest ahead of the cold front. Long Island and CT shorelines will see cooler highs with an onshore flow.

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Our next shot at rain – a low pressure system moving from the Gulf into the lower Great Lakes, and a trailing cold front.

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Mar 29, 2014

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If you’re getting ready to venture out this evening make sure to bring an umbrella and wear your rain gear as a heavy rain event is in store for the New York City area. This will be an extended rainfall event leading into Monday. temperatures today will peak at around 50, near normal. The heaviest rain will be falling from approximately 8 p.m. tonight into the overnight hours. Winds will be at around 25-35 mph. Parts of the area are forecast to receive between 1.5″-3″ of rain in the next 48 hours, which could lead to some minor flooding in poor drainage urban areas and small creeks.

So, in general expect conditions to gradually deteriorate through the day and the intensity of rain to pick up. Rain will continue on Sunday, albeit with diminished intensity. Temperatures will hold steady around 50.

Refer to the diagram below, which represents the North American models guidance for this evening at around 8 p.m. Note the areas of blue and bright blue that correspond to rainfall rates anywhere between .75″ to 1.5″ per hour.

nam-hires_namer_015_1000_500_thickRain will diminish by Monday afternoon as the low pressure center responsible for the heaviest rains moves off to the northeast.

High pressure will move in Tuesday, with a weak cold front moving through later Tuesday. This frontal boundary is not forecast to produce any precipitation. Ahead of this frontal system, we’ll see temperatures rebound to seasonal levels in the mid-upper 50s and partly cloudy skies. Wednesday will likewise be a seasonable day with mild temps near 60.

Light rain is possible Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of next week, but it’s much to early to be certain. GFS model also shows a possible coastal storm for next Tuesday.

NYC Weather Update – March Snowstorm? Mar 21, 2014

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This is not the news any of us want to hear, but confidence is increasing for a potential late-March snowstorm to impact the NYC area next Tuesday-Wednesday. First, the weekend forecast:

Saturday

A warm front will push through early Saturday followed by a cold front later in the day, with a slim chance for precipitation. After the passage of the warm front, gusty winds will increase from the south and southwest, ushering in some much anticipated spring-like warm air. High temperatures may top 60, but with mostly cloudy skies and the influence of the wind it will feel cooler.

Sunday

Clouds will diminish Sunday, but in the wake of the cold front, temperatures will struggle to hit the low-mid 40s. Polar high pressure continues to build overnight, with low temperatures much below average only in the mid-20s!

Monday

Fair conditions with the polar high in control, temperatures will only be in the mid-30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tuesday and into Wednesday

An area of low pressure forecast to form offshore of the Carolinas will track into our area. Forecast models are pointing to this system rapidly strengthening with a sharp decrease in central pressure as it progresses into the waters off of Long Island. Recent model show a track closer to the 40N/70W benchmark, which increases the potential for a significant snowstorm. However, 5 days out, there’s still a good deal of uncertainty as to final track, positioning of precipitation bands, and available moisture. A track slightly further north will mean increased odds for a significant snow event, while a track too far north or south will diminish these chances.

GFS model showing a strong low pressure center consolidating southeast of Long Island around 1AM Wednesday morning.

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GEFS model (spaghetti strings show upper air circulation 552mb and 564mb). The two main bunches of the strings represent the polar and subtropical jet streams respectively. Notice the loops connecting the two streams over the our region. This is converging of energy from both streams will feed the rapidly deepening low pressure center.

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NYC Weather for Weekend of Feb 7th

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NYC weekend weather: A coastal system moves well south of our area, bringing the first chance of light snow to the area late Sat. Another weak system moves in Sun-Mon and could again bring light snow showers from time to time. Nothing too terrible, if there are accumulating snows, it will be less than 3″. Hi temps around 30.

The beginning of next week sees a very cold airmass move in over the area. High pressure from Canada will bring clear skies, combined with snow on the ground, this will lead to chilly temps with lows in the teens in NYC and single digits N & W. Daytime temps will also only top out in the upper 20s.

Next chance for significant weather occurs Wed-Thu timeframe, as forecast models point to a low pressure system forming in the Gulf States, then tracking NE near our area. As is always the case this far out, it’s hard to predict the intensity and whether this will be a snow or rain event.