Tag Archives: winter weather

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 14, 2014

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You can feel the chill in the air now. This cold will continue Saturday, but we’ll get a slight warmup Sunday and Monday ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the southwest. Behind that low pressure system, we get a reinforcing blast of arctic air that will be entrenched through the rest of next week. I’m also monitoring the potential for a Nor’easter just in time for the busy travel day Wednesday and through Thanksgiving.

Saturday – a cold day on tap despite ample sunshine. High temperatures will be generally in the lower 40s. There’ll be a noticeable northwest wind making it feel like it’s in the 30s.

Sunday – a milder day with warm air flowing in ahead of a low pressure system, but by warm, I mean highs only around 50. Clouds will increase throughout the day and there could be some rain Sunday night.

Monday – rain will be falling for the majority of the day, with highs in the city in the mid-40s. Monday night gets interesting with the potential for a rain/snow mix in the city, and all snow in interior regions north and west. Depending on the timing of the main slug of precipitation with this system, we could actually get some accumulating snow in the city also (the later in the night the main body of precipitation falls, the colder it will be, and the better the conditions for snow).gfs_namer_075_1000_850_thickTuesday – cold air rushes back in behind this storm on Monday and we drop back into high temperatures hovering in the low 40s.

Potential Thanksgiving Nor’easter?

In looking ahead at the long-term GFS model output, I’m noting the possibility for a possible high-impact Nor’easter that would be timed to coincide with the busiest travel day right before and then during Thanksgiving. Of course, this far out, there’s still considerable uncertainty to the forecast, so this scenario could not pan out, or the storm track could be nowhere close to where it needs to be to produce a high-impact Nor’easter. Still, it’s worth watching, as it could be a major headache for folks if it does materialize.gfs_namer_276_1000_850_thick (1)

NYC Storm Update – Feb 11, 2014

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There is increasing confidence that NYC will be seeing a high-impact snow storm Wednesday night into Thursday night. However, there are still discrepancies between different forecast models that are leading forecasters to not place too much confidence in overall snowfall totals. There are two main scenarios that could unfold: 1) the storm center takes a track closer to the coast, or 2) the storm center tracks further offshore.

In the first scenario, warmer air would be able to enter into coastal areas and lead to more rain, thus cutting down snowfall totals in NYC, Long Island, and coastal NJ, CT. In the second scenario, warmer air does not flow in as much. This would lead to higher snowfall totals for all areas of the NYC metro. With snow:water ratios about 8:1, and as much as .75-1.5″ inches of precipitable water available (moisture that can fall as snow, rain, ice, etc.), any small change in forecast track and temperature could lead to significant changes in the forecast total snowfall.

Current forecast:

Timing: accumulating snow will begin falling over the area, spreading from south to north, beginning Wednesday night. During the overnight hours into early Thursday morning, widespread totals of 4-6″ are possible. If the track producing a warmer temps verifies, then snow will mix in with rain along coastal areas during the day Thursday, while remaining all snow inland. A return to all snow will occur Thursday night as temps drop below freezing and the storm system exits to the northeast.

Impact: NWS is forecasting 6-8″ total snowfall for areas along the coast including NYC, with 8-10″+ in areas immediately north and west of the city. This is a total for Wednesday night into Thursday night. Thursday morning commute will be messy, with accumulating snow transitioning to rain making for a slushy mess in coastal areas, and all snow in the interior.

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