Monthly Archives: August 2019

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather & Hurricane Dorian Update – Aug 30, 2019

Labor Day weekend is shaping up to be a good one overall in terms of sensible weather. A dry cold front passage today sets the stage for high pressure to take control over the remainder of the weekend. The only wrinkle is a warm front forecast to pass Monday that could bring some rain. Looking ahead into next week, a warm up should precede another cold front mid-week. The big weather story this weekend will be much further south of us, as Hurricane Dorian takes aim at Florida as a dangerous Category 4 storm.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Saturday – high pressure starts to build from the west, which will result in a cooler weather with northerly winds. High temperatures topping out in the low-80s with lots of sun and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – high pressure will progress east, giving us another pleasant day with lots of sun and comfortable temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows warm up in the upper-60s with a warm front approaching from the southwest.

Monday (Labor Day) – chance for rain during the day as a warm front, then a weakening cold front approach. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Hurricane Dorian Heading Towards Florida

Over the course of the last few days, Hurricane Dorian made a pass over the Northern Lesser Antilles, hitting the Virgin Islands, and Martinique, but sparing Puerto Rico. This was a blessing for an island still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Maria. However, because Dorian avoided the disruptive influence of high terrain in Puerto Rico, it entered the open waters of the Western Atlantic north of the island ready for continued intensification. Unfortunately, various forecast models have been consistently depicting Dorian making landfall somewhere in Florida early next week as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane packing max sustained winds of 140 mph.

Latest GOES visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian

Overnight going into today, Dorian’s been steadily strengthening and is now showing a markedly more symmetrical structure than before, along with an eye developing in visible satellite imagery. This suggests that the southerly shear and dry air that was afflicting the storm yesterday has abated somewhat. At this point, there is nothing really stopping Dorian from continuing to strengthen to a major hurricane.

National Hurricane Center official forecast for Dorian as of 11AM Friday

Forecasters continue to have high confidence that Dorian will make a turn towards a more westerly direction as high pressure builds over Bermuda and keeps building to the west. This will block Dorian from taking a northerly route away from Florida. Worryingly, forecast models have trended towards a slower and more southerly track overnight, then a turn north after landfall. On this current track, a large part of Florida would be affected by the storm for a considerable amount of time, increasing the risk of damaging storm surge and inland flooding from prolonged heavy rain.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 27, 2019

A mid-week cold front brings a chance for rain as temperatures warm towards the end of the week. Tropical Depression Six (which could become Tropical Storm Erin) could impact local beaches with high surf for Labor Day weekend.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s. Some chance for light rain in the overnight hours.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday

Wednesday – high temperatures in the low-80s, with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday – clearing skies with highs in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Friday – high temperatures remain in the mid-80s, overnight lows in the upper-60s as high pressure builds in briefly.

A Note on the Tropics

A week ago, there was talk about how this month could play out to be one of the few Augusts on record that had no tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic. That calm has been quickly shattered by the development of two tropical systems: Tropical Storm Dorian and Tropical Depression Six, which may become Tropical Storm Erin. While TD Six won’t impact the US directly, it could bring large swells and waves to beaches along the Northeast this weekend. Dorian, on the other hand, is an imminent threat to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and could cause problems for Florida this weekend into early next week.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 23, 2019

After a week of hot, humid weather and several bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms, we will finally get a break from both the heat and the rain just in time to enjoy the weekend. Behind a cold front that’s slowly pushing south, high pressure will build in and usher in a Canadian polar airmass that will bring a noticeable change to high temperatures – 10ºF cooler in most cases. Rain chances return late in the weekend period.

Rest of today – showers associated with a wave of low pressure moving along the cold front that passed last night should end by noon. Mostly cloudy with gradual clearing. High temperatures in the upper-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NAM (North American Model) forecast for 2 meter above ground level temperature Saturday at 2PM

Saturday – mostly sunny, high temperatures in the upper-70s, noticeably drier feel with dew points much lower than the past few days with Canadian high pressure taking over. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – below average temperatures continue with high temperatures in the mid-70s. By this time, the high pressure center will have shifted to the northeast and will thus enable cooler, more moist onshore flow to influence the weather. We should see more clouds and could even see some scattered rain showers. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures in the upper-70s with partly sunny or mostly cloudy skies. An area of low pressure (which could become a tropical depression this weekend) off of Florida will track along the East Coast and should at the very least bring cloudier weather. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 19, 2019

We begin this week with some typical “dog days” of summer heat. Shower and thunderstorm chances stick around for the first half of the week with the heat and humidity providing necessary instability. A more organized threat for possibly severe thunderstorms emerges Wednesday into Thursday with a pronounced cold front forecast to move through. Behind this frontal boundary, a refreshingly cool and dry air mass is expected to take hold for the weekend.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the low-90s. Heat index values in the upper-90s. Partly cloudy with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon around 5-6PM as a prefrontal trough nears. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Tuesday – still hot but a touch drier, as a cold front pushes south overnight into Tuesday. High temperatures around 90°F. Could maybe see a scattered thunderstorm still pop up but chances are lower relative to today with less humidity and instability to work with. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Wednesday – the cold front passing through Tuesday lifts back north as a warm front on Wednesday. Temperatures remain warm in the upper-80s. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms possible late in the day as a cold front pushes through. If this front pushes through faster than forecast, in the late afternoon or early evening, there’s better chances for strong storms. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms could continue overnight with lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – should be the last day of this spell of summer heat with high temperatures in the upper-80s possible before the cold front above clears the area. Showers and thunderstorms may linger until the front clears. Overnight lows noticeably cooler in the upper-60s behind the cold front as a cooler Canadian air mass moves through.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 16, 2019

A stationary front stalled out southeast of the city over the Mid-Atlantic will be the primary agent responsible for an extended period of humid, cloudy, and unstable weather over the weekend. As was the case last weekend, temperatures will be on an upward trend from the low-80s into the low-90s by the start of next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms particularly closer to higher terrain north and west of the city. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – more clouds than sun with the stationary front just south of the area. Continued onshore easterly flow behind north of this stationary front will keep things cooler and humid. High temperatures in the low-80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop again in the afternoon hours with an unstable airmass (due to the high moisture content caused by the onshore flow) as heating increases. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Sunday – temperatures begin to warm up into the upper-80s as winds shift towards the south. The stationary front attempts to move north as a warm front but high pressure is forecast to develop west of us and block this northwards advance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature, 10 meter above ground level wind forecast for 2PM Monday

Monday – with winds shifting to towards the southwest, much warmer air will advect into the region. High temperatures expected to top out in the low-90s with overnight lows in the upper-70s. Mostly sunny skies forecast with the high pressure building.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 11, 2019

Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Tuesday

Tuesday – shaping up to be an eventful day in regards to weather. Temperatures should rise into the low-80s with overnight lows in the low-70s. During the day, a mesoscale convective system (organized large cluster of thunderstorms) will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley. Forecast is uncertain in terms of where the frontal boundaries in the vicinity of this MCS eventually set up. Current thinking is that we end up south of a warm front earlier in the day that will serve as the initial focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity should continue and increase in intensity as the frontal boundary starts shifting south and encounters warm, moist and unstable air. There is potential for all severe hazards including hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with shower chances diminishing later in the day . High temperatures in the low-80s and lows in the upper-60s.

Thursday – still a possibility for lingering showers but overall a better day with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low-80s with overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 9, 2019

A couple stormy nights in the city the last couple days will give way to a superb weekend of mostly sunny skies and warm, but comfortable temperatures. High pressure will remain in control over the region’s weather going into next week. The next chance for significant precipitation won’t enter the picture until mid-week next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures ranging 84-87°F. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon with a weak disturbance pivoting through at the upper-levels. Forecasters cite the lack of any significant convective inhibition so storms could pretty easily get going, however, moisture content isn’t all that great. Overnight lows should be mild in upper-60s.

HRRR model simulated radar for 4:45PM today

Saturday – with a cold front passing today, we’ll have cooler temperatures tomorrow, high temperatures reaching only into the low-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows cooling into the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Sunday – just another beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows starting to warm back up into the upper-60s.

Monday – temperatures will warm back up as the high pressure center shifts east, and we get the warmer southerly, and westerly return flow. We should see high temperatures in upper-80s and overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC (KLGA) Climatology for August

During my time taking classes as part of Penn State University’s Undergraduate Certificate in Weather Forecasting, we were taught that understanding the climatology of the location you are interested in is an important prerequisite for making accurate forecasts. This post continues on this theme, adding a climatology for August.

Other Month’s Climatologies

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
November
December

Station Basic Information

City Name / Station ID: New York, NY (LaGuardia Airport – KLGA)

Local Geography and Topography

Station Elevation: 10 feet above sea level.

Station Location: LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) is situated on the north shore of Queens along the East River, approximately 6 miles east-northeast of Midtown Manhattan.

KLGA’s location within the broader NYC area, as seen in a Google Maps terrain view

Important Topographical Features: New York City is located in the extreme southeastern corner of New York State, bordering suburban New Jersey and Connecticut. These suburban regions combined with those in Long Island comprise the Greater New York City Metropolitan Area, which is the most populous urban agglomeration in the United States and one of the populous urbanized areas in the world with an estimated population of 18 million. New York City itself sprawls across the coastal plain around the Hudson River estuary. The terminal moraine formed by glaciers of the last Ice Age result in a ridge of higher terrain that cuts a swath from southwest to northeast across the boroughs from northern Staten Island, northern Brooklyn, southwestern through central and northeastern Queens. Otherwise, the city itself is low lying. This ridge varies in height between 200-400 feet, rising sharply from south to north, but tapering more gently north. North and west of the city (about 30-50 miles away), lie significant elevations of the Catskills (north), Poconos (west), Taconics that are part of the broader Appalachian Mountain Range. The elevations of the lower foothills can range from 1000-1500 feet. Some of the elevations in the Poconos and Catskills, west and north of KLGA respectively, peak between 2000-3000 feet. The open expanse of the Atlantic Ocean lies south of KLGA and New York City. Long Island Sound also lies east-northeast. The vast urbanized area of the NYC metropolitan region has significant effects on local microclimates via differential heating (urban heat island effect). KLGA is in a low-lying area sensitive to UHI effects and marine influences.

Topographical map of New York State

Per the Local Climatological Data from the National Weather Service:

On winter mornings, ocean temperatures which are warm relative to the land reinforce the effect of the city heat island and low temperatures are often 10-20 degrees lower in the inland suburbs than in the central city. The relatively warm water temperatures also delay the advent of winter snows. Conversely, the lag in warming of water temperatures keeps spring temperatures relatively cool. One year-round measure of the ocean influence is the small average daily variation in temperature.

National Weather Service – NYC Office

Wind Patterns

Below is a wind rose – you can read more about how to interpret this chart here.

Frequency (percentage) of the single most common wind direction: Due south (12.25%).

Directions that are most and least common: Most common wind directions include due southwest (10%), due northeast (9.75%), and south-southwest (8.75%). Least common wind directions are east-southeast (1%), due southeast (2.5%), and due east (2%).

Direction(s) most likely to produce the fastest winds: Winds of 16.5-21.4 knots are most frequently found coming from due northeast, and due south. It appears that due northeast also has some probability of exceeding 21.4 knots.

Direction(s) least likely to produce the fastest winds: As is the case with several other months, the least common wind directions of due east, east-southeast, and due southeast also rarely seen winds in excess of 16.4 knots.

Impacts of wind direction on local weather: August winds continue to exhibit a distinctive summer pattern, and share many of the characteristics of the wind profiles for June and July. Southerly and southwesterly winds are a touch less common in August versus July, while northwesterly winds increase in frequency slightly. Like in July, heat waves can accompany the clockwise return flow from the southwest when subtropical Bermuda highs set up southeast of the area. A slight down tick in the frequency of southerly winds may point to a decline in sea breezes, with sea surface temperatures continuing to warm and narrowing the gap with average air temperatures. Increases in northwesterly winds could be an indication of a stronger influence from Canadian high pressure.

Maximum observed two-minute wind speed for the month: 45 (52 mph)

Temperature and Precipitation Averages/Records

Temperature units are in Fahrenheit and precipitation is in inches.

DateNormal HighNormal LowRecord HighRecord LowRecord Lowest MaxRecord Highest MinNormal PrecipRecord Precip
185701006269830.152.03
285701025973860.151.31
385701005970820.162.80
48570996275800.152.78
585701005769810.152.08
68570955769810.152.34
78570996165810.131.31
88570985972810.142.54
985701046171820.142.97
108570995762810.141.91
118570995768790.122.03
128470985664820.136.40
1384701005667840.134.12
148469985972810.146.60
158469975967820.130.98
168469965867790.142.48
178469945870790.133.54
188469955969810.131.18
198469945971770.132.74
208369985870770.141.31
218369975762780.131.24
228368935569780.132.34
238368925670750.141.96
248368935565770.131.40
258368965367800.132.09
2682681035361800.122.58
278268995570780.124.73
288267995461810.113.62
2982671005166840.112.57
308167995470810.111.89
3181671005268790.111.60
Range81-8567-7092-10451-6261-7575-860.11-0.160.98-6.60



NYC Weather Update – Aug 6, 2019

Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Heavy rain possible especially later in the day with a cold front approaching. With a moist air mass in place, some thunderstorms that pop up could produce heavy downpours and localized flooding. Rain could continue overnight in more isolated form. Lows in the low-70s.

Thursday – brief subsidence behind the cold front that passes through Thursday should result in calmer weather and warmer temperatures with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Before that happens though, rain and thunderstorms can still pop up. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook valid Aug 11 – Aug 15 (this Sunday into next week)

Friday – cooler, sunny, with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows cooling into the upper-60s as Canadian high pressure begins to build.